mediterranean, ah, it's waters connect people of many cultures. seen it almost rock enter far abdul karim drift along with exploring modern lifestyles and mediterranean where it has history left its traces, meeting people hearing their dreams. mediterranean during this week on d. w. now into it's 2nd month, the war in ukraine has failed to give russia the quick victory of warranty. and there are signs of growing discontent among the political and security elite. back in moscow, a small band of investigative journalists managed to pierce the veil of secrecy around those officials. among them am jayce alberta, founder and editor of the eigen tour of website,

which tracks russia's intelligence services. he's my guest this week from london. how worried russia spies about the progress of the war? people inside are not really happy. there was a way as a war is going. and they blamed just one guy by the mere portion of that. so who is most likely to turn against putin and why? how long can he blame others for the setbacks to the invasion? he ordered. is anyone waiting in the wings to take over if he stumbles? and what are the chances of that camp putin in the long term survive this? do think a lot thing. so all that and more on conflict. andre, so that of welcome to conflicts on thank you for having me. for a long time, you and some of your colleagues have maintained extraordinary contact with whistleblowers in the russian security services. you implied recently that failures

by russia's army causing cracks in russia's leadership? how serious in your view are those cracks while others? correct. why did they start of his war by attack in his own people and be see him a try catch his for the intelligence agency that he placed on the house arrest, 2 f as b jr. all domestic agency box, $400000.00 range in charge of the situation and ukraine than it was on board. the national guard and the deputy head of the national guard was forced to retire. and he was just 45 years old. so yeah, it doesn't look really good and it sounds really, really different from the p. this was a bug report and a half. and that caused a lot of confusion inside of the security services. and people inside are not

really happy with the way the war is going. and they blamed just one guy, was pushing for that. doesn't he risk turning some of them into powerful enemies against him? after all, is a pretty ruthless system, isn't it? yes it is. but the thing is bad about russian security agencies and the army. they do not have a tradition tool conspire to be honest. the last time the russian military tried to have some sort of code that was probably in the 19th century where 5, if father bore bolt off this embrace the nation 25 and the didn't go well for them . the russian security services, all this controls the army of us. all this is brain. i was the military content that isn't one of the big. ready department of the f as b, and they have their own people, m provide in every military department and never a military unit. so for the military,

it's not actually an option. it's also not an option for the security services, because what the nor poochie and just for his own security here as to security agents just. and they just that the protection person that if you were pushing though, who's loyalty, do you think you could now count on unconditionally? i think his personal security services. he has the service of the protection of the president. miss. people are close to him and also his, he has is the federal protection service. again this people are both talk because they're providing protection for him and for high level officials. and usually these people are very low to him. when they be inside, as in the system, people in top positions who are looking at the poor performance of the army, looking at this huge economic backlash from the west that's about to hit them and saying,

we can't survive this. it's all gone too far. you talk to some of russian spies. how worried are they about the progress of the war and, and the reaction to it in the west. something they don't seem to have attracted in? well, yes, they are war but not because of the racks of the west or the one you train them most worth about their positions. they see that which has been a tie can based on people for quite some time. and to be honest, that started before the war, we've been living in this climate off selector progression for probably 7 years now . and that is why we have governors and ministers in jail. and also we have is be people in jail. so people inside, they are mostly of board to bought, bakery yes, but of coffee, i understand now that trouble believes was not going well. and they're made mostly they're thinking about themselves. we do not only, we don't only have

a tradition to or well, of really good conspiracists, but also it's a problem of a lack of political acquisition. while it's very different from what we had like 20 years ago, 20 years ago in russia, we still had some political pottis', political groups. and if you have, say, several generals the unhappy if the president, the police, they had some political force, the goal and to ask them for political support. we do not have this faith now. the political position is either in, in jail or in a czar last week, one of your fellow journals for the amount of such kin who's published a number of letters from an apparent whistle blow and the f s. b. he went so far as to say that with every week the war goes on, the risk of a coup against putin is growing. you wouldn't agree with that, would you?

oh, that's the fall by the but i said, can he's not my call. if he's not journalists, his human rights activists, and he's a very good human rights activist. he has his own sources, but my contacts inside of the secret to services. they're not i don't hear from them, but they're ready for some sort of action. i don't think they are there yet. when you say ready, ready, in what way? psychologic be ready already in terms of organizational movements. what. what is that read it's? it's really difficult for them psychologically. and organizational psychological because now we have in the russian security services, people who grew up and met their careers and the one president and probably on the one director of the f b. because the guy who is now is in charge. he has been around since 2007 with

that means that you have a junior ration of, of officers who have no experience without the people. i mean, the father lived us their political struggles. they grew up thinking that the president would be forever. and that i would say narrow, it's based thinking and that horizon they, when you talk to them, they usually talk about the department, maybe about the unit, but never about the service and never about the country. they do not have b s. b, guys, yes. about the future and most of the concerns about themselves. so psychologically, it's a really difficult for them are gonna sessional as i sat just to build and none the ground organization inside was would be really huge challenge because we have this big problem of mistrust inside of the security services. so you have middle level officers distrusting the general and general destruction. bay, subordinates,

how. why are these people inside the security service about losing their privileges and their money? and the perks, because put in the help to create a john talk chrissy in russia. hasn't he institution's lives corruption in the police and security service has been demick for years of net yes, or the straw box and the falls at 60 be, they've been living in a slightly different reality. puts on stripped to f as b and other security services of the right to travel abroad. so they all ready law, some of a privileges. they also, they do not have a disposition, a right to have property abroad. so based on the some sort of not repression but some, some sort of pressure from the president quite some time. so they have to buy their loyalty. doesn't to with something. yeah. yes, absolutely. yeah. they have been joined good salaries and all that. but it means

that fan not feeling themselves independent. there the instrument that was made very clear about them. so you can see them in every criminal case against the political opposition of the rest of the lease. but they're not acting independently. whatever happens with booty and there's no sign of any liberal faction waiting in the wings to take over. is there none? what's not a look? it doesn't exist and to be honest, have as a whole bad say, as rationale, golf now might be while we're bow just because dave put on those attractions all, it's not a really option here. base people because we lost the contracts with the some years ago. and they were given help by the government, by military contracts. now, many of them became part of the russian military industrial complex. and that makes me even more dependent on the craft and,

and looking at the repression that's been going on now for some time. and obviously has been stepped up during the war. we have what, 15000 people so far arrested on the streets, beatings, widespread intimidation, long prison sentences. are you hearing any qualms at all from the intelligence services that this is going to fall, that soviet style repression is perhaps no longer sustainable in 2022. not to hear that i'm going to write people inside to security services. they got convinced that that there was a lot of best young again because they had this big idea that old but things in russia happened before because of their lucel's. and there have been a big fear. but something like 970 and mice one day repeats itself in russia, and they had biz bis obsession as their own revolution. the problem that sort of

a lucian is, but in they opinion, evolution was started by a small bunch of amy grass, not by big political party. that is why they are convinced. but when you to suppress all kinds of political activity, just no matter how big it is, because we're not behind the crack down the new crack down on the like saying the valley, the opposition politician, for instance, in the extra 9 years that he's been given in jail, other likely to be more show trials like his on the way. i expect more shot trials, but not against a political opposition because it's already non existent in the country. but you can expect some big criminal investigations against the russian, the late because these days is mostly consult with where there's a loyal to all of the russian bureaucracy. and so you can expect some more governors, some more ministers, a sentence out. and that is why the secret service is concerned,

because when they see that they're now under attack. so for a moment about putins rhetoric keys, spoken of traitors and scum in society and the need for self purification. is he trying to divert blame from himself and on to those who haven't supported his war? while he tries to, to rely on bis feelings, shared by many of the country that russia is. this is for, for us. and that has been all this under some sort of the top from the west, and the biggest, how far the west, in this case provided by liberals in the country. so actually what is which is doing right now is encouraging people to leave the country. remember him, his famous line that the russians people will split ah, this traitors out of a mouth, just like

a flea. i think that was his expression. so actually he's encouraging people to leave and the b. c. bad already. mobile, $70000.00 specialists left to come check. not to mention intelligence. john, listen activists. this pushing out of people who don't support the war. how does that messaging go down with the public at large, the majority still packing the war? unfortunately, yes. and they think that, ah, actually, it may be good for the country, some sort of cleansing of the country because of his liberal fe joy at a bow goods, well fly, and all of us. and now it's time door, protect our country. so we have this deep feeling out of a busy, just hold trust them putting knows how to play with it. what about when the public finds out the scale of the casualties which haven't yet been revealed to them?

just as they found out when the soviets were in afghanistan, soldiers mothers have shown themselves in the past to be a pretty formidable voice in russian society having by the 1st of all of its kind of activities so far are good, is ation. you mention that most of soldiers is suppressed, but forages. so it's not actually safe or the mother's door. the cold days are going is ation and block for how the other problem is that pushing actually he understood something about the war in chechnya, that for instance, is about to not to have soldiers, drafted and big switches sent to the wall. that is why you see all this people now taken prisoners and ukraine and them mostly from siberia, from distant regions, and some for russia like more to go there. and you said he didn't care about them.

well, if you have some people killed and you have their relatives and the small town in and the door, their soft costs. but that would be a problem only for the small community, not for just like moscow or some pictures book. but they were sensitive enough about the casualties that when comes most proud of the newspaper printed some figures briefly on march the 22nd and then raised them figures which suggested the army had lost nearly 10000 men with more than 16000 injured. they were very worried about that. what they cover up the casualties on the latest vigorous provide that last week was 1351 people killed. but again, of course it's very far from reality. yes. you absolutely right. we got, we didn't know that spot too much surprise. it didn't trigger a new reaction in the russian society. so you have his mother's, you have

a relative, quiet word, but that's all about it. and to be honest, the most astonishing part of that is these relatives and mothers, they are mostly worked about a songs, but they're not what they but what their songs doing in your brain. so base is astonished and lack of sympathy for the ukrainians, which to me is very shocking because every single family, all not single look at every 2nd family in russia, has some relatives in your brain. what went wrong with the progress of the war with the organisation of the war last week? ego get can form a colonel and the f. s. b. counterintelligence said the war in ukraine was based on a catastrophic, the incorrect assessment of ukraine's forces. the enemy was underestimated in every aspect. if that's true, why was the intelligence so poor? well, because it was not only bought but intelligence,

it was also bought the consumer of his intelligence. everybody knows, including people inside of the f as b that pollution, all this has had strong opinions about ukraine and about the functionality or just the functionality of the ukrainian space. and we know that you're right, you're not because you had to strongly pinions. so you're going to listen to any country intelligence, is that what you're saying? absolutely, and it's not it bob's health above that. so the russian intelligence try to tell him that, look, you would be great at vast grid at the flowers. it's about a very cynical approach and assumptions bad. the gradient stage and ukrainian people will just give up, the state would collapse immediately and we just need to while to impose our wheel . and that's it. what happened to the huge investments russia is supposed to have made in its forces in recent years. we now hear from western intelligence that

claims that the numbers huge numbers of russian missiles simply don't work. don't fly straight, don't explode on impact. what happened was the money or siphoned off when corrupt deals by, by people connected to the military. well, i think that yes, the performance of the russian army is not very impressive, but i would blame not hold his army buckles of political leadership. these war was very different from all the previous put and was in many respects. include in the way, it's actually a lat, i mean is a chain of command even now is still unclear. an old previous, which is worse. you have this think it's called the joined rebel forces and usually you have a commander and you know, his name is that was public. i'm in the oldest and you the name of a general us ultimately in charge of that situation on the battlefield. what we've

seen happen generally killed on the battlefield, haven't we? that's pretty unusual, isn't it? to have janet was actually there. absolutely, and i think the problem is that we do not have this janice, come on right now. so we do not know who's in charge, and that is why you have all this problem with communications. we have current nation, and that is why as a general, they think that we need to go, there's a frontline to see by themselves and they get killed. so it's not really goods and tom self. how the whole thing is organized. but political element, i think still plays a huge role in that. for instance, we do not understand military speaking, why? we have the national guard troops sent in to ukraine. these people are trained to deal with their professors on the streets, not to be engaged, and then punk battles. and now, well, naturally for a month, b. c. columns of these people sent in the ukraine, get killed and darned. and nevertheless, the russian government still doing this,

mister saw that of what, what should we read into the strange appearance of the defense minister? shall i go after a long absence from public view was slurring in it his words in a way we haven't heard before, and the rumors reported by the ukrainians had been that he's had heart problems if he damaged goods. now including ours, all i heard from my store, so bad question was quite unhappy. there were 5 guests showing goal. but what do we need to remember back to get sugar is extremely small and his very shrewd political operator has been around for 30 years, much longer than putting himself. and he knows how to play with food. so he could have some problems that he has caused, but also he could play for a time the problem put in his face and now is that there is no real replacement

for so guess, show goal. we used to have the collection of popular generals who became popular because of the 2nd church and ones of war and george and sir, what show gore di if he got rid of them, most of them. so if you need to find a good replacement for shribel right now, it would be huge challenge. and maybe if i would just wanted to make sure that we can understand that reports in the last few days, he said russia is going to concentrate its military efforts on the done bass region . one should say, it has so far, no sign is other operations ending, but it is moscow trying to recalibrate its war aims to something it can achieve after having failed to achieve its initial aims. andrei, cartoon of who heads the russian international council, says the countries leadership comp lose no matter what they will need to end this whole story with some kind of victory. what if i can't?

while yes, it looks like they're trying to provide some explanation as a public and the day i saw that last big, wherefores, the rest of the middle tray, one palm blake and talking to some program to me. yeah. trying to explain what's been wrong. all might be trying to say that everything is still according to plan. and now of a say, yes, it was all about dunbar. note about p f r and we are not going to storm will be seated. it's all about and sort of is sieges. and then about from cleansing. so if a change in rhetoric, obviously suggested comic and this organization doesn't this confusion, well not panic but confusion that for claire. but to be honest, i also, i do not quite understand how, which in can get out of this revolved claim in some sort of victory. he needs that

he needs to provide some victory to the russian and was a world because it's all about just stinging and, but to be honest, i don't quite see what it might be. because even if say he has some sort of agreement that the landscape, the sanctions i still, that economy is ruined. and for what i don't know about a korean style partition, is that a possibility that he might accept that? ah yes, but again, it will not be a we'll win for, for russia, because he'll raise the stakes. he said, but we need to cleanse ukraine of the nazis and all that we need. then you deal with nate, that is not guessing that so again, i don't quite understand what she is and gay, president biden's words in warsaw the weekend, supposedly of a cough to the fact that putin can't remain in power. how do you think that will

have been understood by the various factions inside the system? back in russia? those who may be thinking that also putins time should be coming to an end. while that is once struck, can difference from what we see now from what we sell and falls into full g. and when we saw on the face of very near back, then as a russian broker say, there were some army as a russian security is all on the same page. they all support future. they believe that there was the right thing that everybody got excited. and unfortunately, a lot of population also believe, but it was the right thing to do. now is a big shift. so people might still believe that something should be done with ukraine, but they think that the way it was done was not very good one and they blame one guy was in a position. and i think it's quite significant,

very briefly because we're running out of time can put in in the long term. survive this, do think a lot of things out i so that's good to have you on the program. thanks very much. thank you. ah ah, with

to the point? strong opinions, clear positions, international perspectives. nearly 6 months into russia's attack on ukraine. bloody war of attrition grinds on. could new development behind the front lines to

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