leave dot com. ah, 6 months ago to day russia began invading you crate, despite all of the intelligence, the warnings of an imminent attack. when this war started, most of the world was shocked when the shock factor wore off quickly. have a year into this conflict. russia still out, guns, ukraine, but weapons from the west are changing that equation. this war here in the heart of europe, it is far from over. sadly, the best way to shock the world now would be a prediction of peace. i bring gulf in berlin. this is the day ah in independence days because of abrasion always arrayed. i think it's probably the most important thing that we'll see. you know about today's cancel or activities

you are fighting to a pull. just suffer any t with thousands of civilians have been killed and injured, including under the children. i've never dodgy for a moment that ukraine is going to win this struggle. on august 24th, we say happy independence day ukraine. ah. also coming up the hard lessons in this war for russia. why out gunning? the ukrainians simply hasn't been enough. essentially, they underestimated the enemy. they have always stretched. they of forces, exposing time to adversary's strikes. and of course, they didn't expect that amount of help from the nato ally,

ah, the, to our viewers watching a p b s in the united state into all of you around the world. welcome. we begin the day with the russian invasion of ukraine, 6 months into a war that we may end up measuring in years on february 24th, when russian forces 1st crossed over into ukraine. expectations of a short conflict seemed to be the overwhelming majority. those in the minority, they were spot off. in fact, the russian military spent the 1st months of this war, apparently getting its act together. regrouping and refocusing at the same time, ukraine has lobbied western countries to send more and more weapons, most coming from the u. s. followed by the u. k. and europe. efforts at a diplomatic resolution have gone nowhere with ukraine now equipped better than ever. and with russia refusing to relent. the next 6 months looked set to be filled with fighting months that could quickly turn into years as ukrainians learned to

live with this wars dreadful dichotomy, air strikes and air sirens, alongside cafes and playgrounds, we have this report. russian tanks aligned up in the ukranian capital the message. this is the only way russian military equipment will appear and give burnt and destroyed. it was unusually quiet as ukrainians mount that independence day in the capitol. occasionally emptied warnings disrupted the silence. ah. but the mood in the city is defined. we had as a precise and i shall crane the letters. i'm very proud of our country easily could i? you know, i'm glad that we came back from europe some where we had fled to, to celebrate here. now on this day with our fellow citizens,

some of the day i believe the tree will come dates if it's a special day for me today. if you're unsure, i feel nothing. no fear. i traveled almost a 100 kilometers here from near keith. nothing scares me. he do it for you just have to do it. diesel and it's a holiday after all ever silver suits them. i am president willing to me. zalinski released a prerecorded message. wait. he vowed to fight until the end wasn't here with him. he managed to so indecently what for us as the end of the war? will you sight peace? now we say victory, and then we won't look for mutual understanding. was a terrorist yet got even though in the stand, the russian language, if you came to defend, lack of what killing thousands of people you came to liberate in as i knew similarly, we finally became united saras customer and you nation emerge on february 24th at bouy, i am the ne, not gourne for me, but reborn more a nation that did not cry,

screamed o gets his gantski when that did not run away, yet he did not give up and did not forget. the president and 1st lady also visited a memorial to the soldiers killed in the conflict. meanwhile, ukrainian troops in the east are locked in a riding war of attrition with the russian army. i'm join nell by maria of diva. she is a security analyst based in her keep in the northeast of ukraine when russian troops attacked her hometown early in this war. she started collecting evidence of possible war crimes and she committed herself to fighting russian dis information. maria, it's good to have you with us tonight. you posted a video, i'm earlier today from the center of steve on this ukrainian independence day, and it got our attention. let. let's take a look at this before the invasion. fulton was saying that the russian thanks, will be on the streets of key in just several days. well,

here is the main street in key, appreciate it, and here are russian. thanks. termer barrick weapons, all other have it. russian military equipment burned and destroyed by ukraine and armed forces and thousands of people in kia are now here may can se in front of the destroy thrush military vehicles. maria, it is clear that you think that ukraine has won the battle. i'm wondering how can you be sure that russia will not win this war? the battle is not over unfortunately for you grain. and we have to be prepared and be prepared for a long war. the people i have been speaking today with the english. i think the heart of keep in mind on square. all of them say that ukraine's goal is to get full territorial control of the temporal occupied territories. and that means

that the war is not over for us and they just continue. but what has changed and what does this mean this? so to say, installation or exit bishop of destroyed russian military vehicles in key. what it means for us, your grand, yes, it is the demonstration that they put in the goal. he has put it while he began this invasion on the 24th of february, would not it shift. he did not achieve anything of the primarily walls. and on the other hand, it shows us that ukraine and troops were able to resist and fight effectively. because many people included in the west were doubt in that ukrainian army will be able to do so. really let me speak to you you as a ukrainian citizen. when you look back at the past 6 months of this work,

how has your life been changed? my personal life has changed completely before the war. i was an analyst, an expert, mainly working from home and right and research papers desk work as if you would imagine that ordinary expert will do. and from time to time, you know, doing trainings and going into conferences and this war and turn me into some kind of what correspondence? because now i have where the hell met the armor and go to the front lines to show the will, the what is happening in ukraine and what russia is doing to my country it, let me pick up on that. i know you made many videos over the past 6 months, feel me the aftermath of russian attacks filming ukrainian troops. has there been a particular setting or, or situation that has stayed with you the,

the one thing happened just recently. it was in harkey region near my home city. there is a small town of to waive and rochester, all the cultural center. there are the, as 300 truck gets me styles and people of shelter in the basement of the cultural center. and 3 people called inside. and we didn't know if they're alive or not. and the rescue continued throughout the night. and one of the rescuers was held by the actually the cause of the woman which was there under the rubble. and then there was the scene when the rescuers found the crust or the, and they said he seen the husband and i talked to him and he said that they the couple had 2 children. and he didn't know how to tell them what has happened to

them. either, yeah it's, it's almost impossible to imagine what that must be like. are you worried as the months turn into a year maybe longer have an air raid sirens going off at the same time. you have people still taking their children to school going to cafes. are you worried that this, this dangerous dichotomy of normal sea and war time life will get settled in 4 ukrainian, such as yourself? this is a question. i am asking the people in the forefront in friendships and what they say me and the soul just they say we are fighting here for, for other people in your grain to have their normal lives. the most important scene for you. great, nance and elsewhere in the world is that please do not forget that this is

a war going on and this is the sovereign state been attacked by the enemy. and while you do not forget about that and continue support in and providing that funds and all the help that is, that to be grain gets you grain will be able to fight or the end to resist this aggression. maria of diva, we appreciate you taking the time to share your insights and your personal stories on this very important day for ukraine. thank you. thank you. thank you. and our coverage of half a year of the war in ukraine continues. now with justin crock, he's an intelligence and security expert. he's also ceo of the intelligence consultancy sibley mister crop. it's good to see you again. as the news brought of russian troops heading over the ukrainian border 6 months ago. exactly 6 months ago, the dig. just how much of

a chance were people giving the ukrainian military it you talk about the news breaking and i think at the time when they're biting image i have with my team watching have night, is that she to the building picture on, on social media and other sources which was like google traffic that was showing the traffic jams in the borders rushing sheets moved up and thinking it was sent to reality that arose around the situation. it would wait long felt like that russia would attack. and i think that consensus being that, that they wouldn't and so i think at the time a lot of people are very christ over say by the news. i think the consensus of criminal watches was that this was a mentors blocked by the military to think otherwise. u k. u s. nato did think otherwise, but even in ukraine, people just couldn't believe the way this was coming about. so ready for the 1st few days is that real sense of jock? and i think that delayed reaction by ukraine, which,

which worked in 2 ways. i think 1st of all, the russian troops themselves, of course, were surprised. some of them said, you didn't even realize they were still on the exercise that they don't box beforehand. and then do you, cranium themselves, had time to re gather the russians, run into a lot of schools very quickly as we now know, and i'm not, was those moments i think that saved ukraine? i think said to say, looking back, the russians came very close to achieving their objectives. they did reach outskirts of care from both west and east, and the move from the east was a very long way. but then they were out of state and they were embarked on the wrong mission with the wrong mindset. and ukraine had time to ready, but it was a close one thing, i think of the start and the frantic days about the camp. so it was one more by griffin determination than anything else. i think just a reminder of those times and how much has changed even though we face these devastating scenes now, was it was the grid and determination. was that the determining factor for the

ukranian forces in those early days or was it the high tech anti tank weapons that were provided by the west? it was a bit of everything like like everything in context let you and i have discussed before in the program it's, there's no one factor in war. we talk about the physical component. so what you have to use the conceptual component. do you understand how to use it and the moral component, you understand why you're using it? and i think especially in the early days, but even up to now ukrainian determination has been the really it really important factor in that said the moral component for ukraine, which is lacking quite low in the russian side. they had had some physical help. you mentioned dance tank weapons that were present ahead of the conflicts in reasonable numbers. and of course on top of that there's been years of training and the ukranian military. the struggle so hard. 2014 rebuilt itself very effectively by this point, as we've seen and had a solid backbone of training of conceptual understanding. to be able to pull

together all those elements. and when in those 1st frantic weeks, the successes, it did achieve in the north, in which the rest of this campaign has now hinged. and then of course, that we're now in this school, a stalemate situation broadly that again ukrainian determination on every level, including a determination to see support from the west. things ain't and even things like the presentation these vehicles in care of. it's a real moral factor of the population that they've just never let them use. they were in the still meet situation. now in russia seems to be bogged down on land. it doesn't have air superiority, certainly doesn't have your supremacy. and it doesn't control the ukrainian coast, i'm wondering, it has russia gotten as far as it can get in this war broadly say that that's true. i mean there's always room for surprises. but changes rush of course has to things up. it's safe. so full mobilization to pot robin, the special miniature operation and of course, nuclear weapons. now at the moment it doesn't seem like it's used either those yet,

but they have those things in reserve. so those, those factors can change the course. the conflict, as we said, but at the moment it does seem to be pretty evenly matched along the front lines. i think the course ukrainian counter offensive run into the same problems and i think maybe the ukrainians who get as far as the deeper and hudson, but i think they'll be very hard pushed gay more so beyond the situation when know the site like the current situation russia hasn't achieved everything, it would, it as a minimum wants to do to see if a piece and ukraine, of course, wants to 20 percent of it, starts you back. but at the moment, it seems unlikely that either so i will achieve their objectives that suggest this will be protracted and suggest that without negotiations in some form of new reality being accepted, which will take time that we're not going to see a lot more progress. but of course, there are many variables and a, we know that both military's the russian and the ukrainians, you know, they've suffered casualties. we don't have any verifiable,

reliable numbers. is it possible though, to say whether either side are losing operational capability because of the men and women they've lost? i think it's been worse the russians when the as you say, casualty figures are low, the place figures i've seen been broadly accepted at the mom and 9000 dead on the cranium. we saw it 25000 on the russian side. and you can probably triple those numbers in terms of seriously wounded another losses. so both sides have taken a lot of casualties. frankly, when you look at that, the russians have take more that's commensurate with the fact that the russians are attacking which is always harder. you're more vulnerable attacking than you are defending, and we, we talk about an attack versus defense, the ratio 3 to one to achieve superiority. so it's only in line with a relatively even fight. and of course, those numbers would shift if you crane were attacking russia to try and drive them

out, broadly speaking, but rush or i think having more problems making a quality replacements. it took a high rate of loss, is early on. they lost a lot of i'm very good equipment from there also early on. and they are having to, i think, struggle more to bring up numbers. ukraine, of course, training thousands of so just a moment in the u. k. and elsewhere in europe and the u. s. of course, and i think developing good replacement, so both sides have more to bring to the fight. i think the russians have probably had the worst of it though about it. we heard just in the last week ukrainian president zalinski. he's been doubling down on the idea that this war actually began in 2014, with the legal annexation of crimea. he says the war and when that annexation is over, what would have to change before the ukrainian military could keep, keep the word of its president and force the russian occupiers out completely.

i think that really is a stretch. so for ukraine, at this point, it would require more or less deeply collapse of rushing capability. i think that's the only way we see that happening. i think even if you, kramer able bill a lot more combat power, it would still probably not be enough to to, to that fall. so i think it would be a moral collapse of the, the russian miniature, the russian state would enable that. which course brings his own dangers, i think, for the world and politically as to what would happen if russia were which meltdown doesn't seem like them. and of course, combined premier very much regards russian territory and that i'm afraid that nuclear from called it is again for the ryan because one of the contacts in which they can deploy those weapons for territorial defense of their own territory. and i think crime, they would proby it never be keen to do that. and so i think ukrainian military knows that's quite a stretch that love to do it. but i think they know that realistically, it's quite a hot ask. but politically, overseas, somebody lensky wants to push,

wants to hold out. and of course, if it goes into negotiations as this conflict might, as it did in 2015, then that's something that ukraine can make a concession. so i think it's quite understandable then you would definitely be holding that out. and i think it's, it's a reasonable aspiration for ukraine to have or no, i certainly would, if i were you cried yet, i think military, it's a very, very big task and the balance will be very odd to strike just in crum giving us excellent military analysis 6 months into this war, mr. group is always we appreciate your time. thank you. thank you. the. we're now to those unprecedented economic sanctions that were slapped against russia. have they worked? joining me now is anastasia upsetting. she's an assistant professor of finance at the hospice school of business at the university of california berkeley. she's also

a founding member of the pressure group economists for you cray installed. it's good to have you back on the day here we are. we've talked several times in the past 6 months now we're 6 months into some of the toughest sanctions ever imposed on a government is russia feeling the full force of the sanctions? i mean, it's really being beginning to crater as president biden said, back in march. yes, so i think with sanctions and we basically get out what we put in on. so if we were really going for sharp quick effect and with an immediate immediately felt effect on russia's ability to finance the war to wage the war. and then the way to achieve that would have been with very quick, sharp actions are apart, for example, complete immediate and shut off a russian energy in europe. instead, what we went with in the coalition of countries that are opposing russian aggression in ukraine isn't slower and more deliberative approach. and there's

a lot of discussion, a lot of thinking than things get implemented. i'm and the effects of that approach are likewise longer term. and so if the question is our sanctions harming the russian economy, the answer is yes, they are. and in the long term, they will be felt and they are felt now and, and in a sense, there's been a structural change in terms of the trade relationship that russia has with other countries, especially in europe. that will be very likely to reverse issues in the long term. you know, no one, no one promised in a mega change overnight when the sanctions were imposed. but it is slow going. do we need more patients here? i mean, i know i've asked you that before, but we are half a year into this. and i heard analyst today saying if you walk around moscow or st . petersburg, you know, you really have to, you struggled to see someone who is struggling because of the sanctions. yeah,

i think we need patients. we also need continued action on so they're still leverage that are being deliberate and that have been deliberate. i think last time we spoke, we talked about the price cap as, as well as restrictions and shipping restrictions on insurance. i'm so all those levers are leverage that we in kind of the economics community we've been discussing sanctions have proposed a while ago and they're still being deliberated and well, most likely eventually be implemented and it's a build up. so these will be, this will amplify the effect of the existing sections in place. yeah. and what about economies that are struggling with the high price of gas and we can't countries, and i'm thinking of germany, for example, what can they just pay less cap the price of russian? gail, i said it's of course not as straightforward as a single country counting it. we do need some kind of for more coalition based action. but the, as the short answer is yes, there is a lot of bargaining power that, especially the u. block, has, with respect to russia, perhaps slowly degrading the longer we cake to implement some of those matters,

but still strong. nonetheless, i'm city, you was the primary importer of russian energy but also has a lot of leverage in terms of shipping in terms of insurance on those shipments going elsewhere. so we couple and propose price cap with restrictions on shipping and insurance of rush will to other places that are not implementing the price. can i think that can act and sort of run about one minute left. you are ukranian, you're in the united states or americans in your opinion, still convinced of the need to pay the price to stand by you crank? i think yes, absolutely. i haven't seen any of the reduction in that willingness and perhaps would talk about it less frequently. but in some sense, it became kind of a default. i think the support remains bipartisan remains. i'm kind of uniform across the population. and in a pretty much anybody that i would need on the street. yes them whether it's bright

for the u. s. to support a sovereign countries attempt to resist this aggression by russia. the answer would be absolutely yes. and as well as you further from the university of california berkeley. as always, we appreciate your time and your insights, i'm sure we'll be talking again soon. thank you. thank you. well, the day is almost done, the conversation continues online, you'll find it on twitter may 30 w news. you can follow me on twitter at brent golf t v. i remember whatever happens between now and then tomorrow is another day. we'll see that ah

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