ah, interest the global economy? our portfolio, g w business beyond. here's a closer look at the project. our mission. to analyze the fight for market dominance. east versus west. ahead with the w business beyond russia's war on ukraine may be stalling, but that didn't stop. vladimir putin from staging a massive military drill with some help from his friends. the week long exercise at 7 locations on land and sea involved 50000 troops, russians, side by side with forces from china, india and countries still further afield. the 2 asian giants also get favourable

mention in putins, new russian world foreign policy doctrine. we are asking rushes wargames with china and india, the start of a global arms race. hello and welcome to to the point. it's a great pleasure to introduce our guests. alex say you super heads the russian program at germany's free ditch ebert foundation based here in berlin. michelle to a man is foreign policy correspondent for the german weekly the site. and sarah, pa go is associate a fellow at the german council on foreign relations, the d g, a p, with a focus on russian foreign and security policy. alexei,

the drill this week was entitled to foss stuck, which means east is that a signal to the west. it is, but as also the normal denomination of the final military exercise in the russian calendar of military exercises. so we've had less talk before, it's not the 1st one of its kind. it's supposed to be a show force. i find it quite meagre for that respect. it's a magnitude of order smaller than the last one. it doesn't show us any new maneuvering techniques. we don't see any lessons learned from the ukranian campaign, so it's supposed to show that the russian federation can wage a maneuver like that on the other side of the continent at the same time with fighting the war and maintaining normalcy at home. but it fails to doing so. and what's the significance of putting inviting a few friends to join him? well, again, they've been there before and, but of course the russian foreign policy tries to portray the geopolitical landscape as one shifting towards russian dominance on the, your asian continent at the same time and look at how exactly the indian,

the chinese, but also the other national contingency integrated into the maneuver, it's also quite well, it's a week the chinese have their own camp. the structure of the exit is unclear. they don't have a really common enemy. it's about border patrol, so it's not a big. i wouldn't say it's a big thing. ok so heavily discounted thereby. alex a sarah, how do you see it? we keep hearing that the russian military is under strain protein isolated the economy found a ring. but this drill wouldn't necessarily seem to indicate any of that. what i, i would actually fully agree with alex a. so what we see in terms of the scale, it's not as big as it used to be, but still we can maybe draw some minor conclusions from this exercise. so for example, if we take a look at the naval exercises in forensic japanese coast or something that the japanese government is very, very of because they actually are, are still having a territorial conflict with russia. they also how are facing growing problems,

china as an emerging low power. so the corporation between china and russia is something that japan really looks at in detail. so these kind of common naval exercises are something that is also designed to signal to tokyo rushes, a new no limits partnership with china is not new. mikhail, it was cemented in fact, as the olympics opened in china already before the russian invasion of ukraine. but what was india doing at the party? do you, what is it significant? would you attach to the fact that indian forces also took part in this drill? i think that was important for vladimir putin is to show that india, the very populous nation on the southern asian continent is part of that new alliance, which basically he sees in terms of the rest of which is the majority of the world

against the west. this is what he wants to put on display. i found it very interesting that you saw nations like india and china and russia there in a maneuver. and it was clearly visible that they were not in alliance, that you had rather armies being cobbled together for this, for these exercises. whereas other nations in central asian nations who are aligned with russia in the military lines were conspicuously absent. so this is what i found interesting and if i can just stay with india for a moment, china and india are not normally best buddies. did it surprise you that india took part here? and no, it didn't surprise me because india actually ties like other nations, turkey, for example, to take advantage of the situation. they haven't joined the west and sanctions,

but they buy, for example, russian oil as a discount prices at the moment. some of it they sell on to other nations making money on that. so they basically try to find their position in a shifting geo political field. and that's why they have joined, but they are definitely not in an alliance with russia. so as we heard from alex, say this was not the 1st vo stock exercise, but it was certainly the most international to date. according to moscow, 50000 soldiers are to take part in the maneuver that significantly fewer than 3 years ago. but this time, troops from other former soviet states, mongolia, and even algeria, syria and nicaragua, are joining russia, china, and india. all countries are considered supporters of russian policy. china has actually spoken of

a friendship without borders and is committing ground air and naval forces to the exercise was submitted. the quality of co operation between the russian and chinese navies has reached a new level. this increases global and regional stability and security, where you're like i said above western intelligence services are not impressed by the maneuver they see it as a staged demonstrative closing of ranks and nothing more calling it strategically useless. but the question remains is vladimir putin working on a new alliance against the west? let me put that question straight to you, alex say, coupled with the question about how reliable these new allies truly are china, india, and others? well, we have to differentiate. there is certainly a propagandistic attempt on the russian side to portray the events and the global scale as a demise of the western liberal world order. and then there is

a lot of cherry picking on events and maneuvers, but also treaties and corporation arrangements which are supposed to be proof of that new alliances. i wouldn't claim to see any new alliance alliance, iraq corporation agreements. obviously, obviously the other countries, including china, looking at the russian war and ukraine and are more or less fence sitters because time works for them. they get discounted energy resources from russia. they also india heavily reliant on the russian arms industry. so obviously we still want to maintain this cooperation, and at the same time, they're not necessarily pushed by time because russia will become more and more reliant on them, not the other way around. so i would say what we see is a rearrangement of relationships in the your asian continent. in russia is changing its role and tries to put trade in the language of a new world order. this is what i can see. and let's talk

a little bit about that new world order and rushes hopes that they wore his ushered in the decline of the west. the new foreign policy doctrine that vladimir putin has now signed up 2 lines, a russian world that looks a lot like the imperialist ideology, that hard line russian nationalists used to justify intervention. among other places in former soviet republics. sarah, would you say that the ukraine war has, in fact ushered in a new world disorder where might makes right? no, i don't think that the war in ukraine really caused new developments that just accelerated existing developments. so if we, for example, look at this new doctrine and the quite great importance of the russian war concept, that's something that is not new that has been included in previous doctrines. but what we see is that this russian notion of being its own culture and

being the opposite of the west. and one also influencing globally with this kind of fresh culture that is growing. but that's just, you know, it development that have that we have seen like 101015 years maybe. so it's just accelerating what tendencies have there been before. and if i can add it also, if you look into the doctrine, it uses the language of humanitarian politics. this is very interesting whose actual title is a few monitoring doctrine and what it tries to do, i think, tries to hijack arguments of human human interior in responsibility, which we know from the west where there is an idea that you intervene in a 3rd country. if something bad is happening and what the russian propaganda tries to protect, right, to protect, absolutely the same as that. there is a right and a responsibility to protect the russian federation in charge of protecting, also culture. right. so it's more of a propagandistic effort. i would still see it like that. michelle, russia's war as aggression breaks, a long standing a taboo that is enshrined,

of course, in the charter of the united nations. are countries friendly to russia, china, but perhaps also turkey. you mentioned turkey. it has been making some rather bellicose sounding threats. recently these of the grease are these countries happy to see that taboo dethroned? well, i think yes and no. of course, country like turkey sees that political positions are shifting at the black sea for example to their disadvantage. but on the other hand, they depend to some extent on russian gas. and they can of course, benefit a lot from their position. now, as the major outlet for russia to asia, africa, and europe, and also from parallel imports and all kinds of things,

they engineer now through ports and you stumble. so i think rather they, they really take advantage that they will not be in some kind of they will also go on maneuvering. the threats against greece, which you have mentioned are part of a turkey's pre election campaign at the moment. out on the president makes friends at this point in time with everybody who can give him money from greece. he can get only one thing, which is the conflict which might then stir up nationalist feelings at home and help him over the threshold in 2023 when they will have elections. so a lot of calculation on the part of all these different players. alex, if we can stay with the idea of an arms race that we mentioned in the title of this program, turkey has been selling precision drones to ukraine for use in the war,

but says it will not supply russia. russia, on the other hand, is apparently now getting military drones from iran is the russian military under the current circumstances, with the kind of opportunism that michelle just outlined is the russian military more resilient than many in the west are hoping? well, it's a question of what is the aim of the russian military? i think it's absolutely clear that after the end of the korean campaign and the end of the war, which i cannot read, knows when it will happen, the russian military will be in a shape which is much worse than ever before. in the last 2030 years, just the losses. that technological damage, also problems with morale, recruitment, systems and so on. so, judging by that indicators, it's a catastrophic scenario for the russian military in terms of resilience. if you're asking, how long could rush a wage war? it could do it for a long time, through, by incurring more and more cost on its own military economy,

the civilian population. at the same time, i don't have a feeling talking to other experts special, specializing on military issues that it's unclear what's the escalation potential there because there is a lot of talk of, you know, the creation of 3rd army corps which is supposed to be used in the ukrainian campaign at the same time, looking at the social analysis, we can see that the russian government has immense problems in mobilizing additional people. so i'm, i'm, and technique, weapons tanks, the stock miles, a huge people and their preparedness to go and fight and die. big question mark already. now, the recruitment even in prison is, is complicated. the recruitment in remote areas has been a big, big, big issue. and i don't see a lot of potential for the russian military to escalate massively in the current set up of the conflict. just one remark on an escalation potential is i think the 2 possible escalations there. this is they, they have really grinded in southern and eastern ukraine. and the escalation,

which is possible as a massive aerial campaign on ukrainian cities are left post style destruction of ukrainian cities, but also at a loss because the ukrainians will be able to shoot down many aircraft, russian aircraft. and the other would be in some way nuclear and i think this is, this is an option which is of course, detrimental to all sites and even with the nuclear power station and the struggle around the nuclear power stations are put easier. it is a city located in the east of ukraine. if anything happens, russia and russians would be the 1st to suffer from let's, i want to move away from that topic, which we in fact have talked about on many of our recent programs here and to the point. but let's come back to this new world disorder, which is sometimes compared with a new cold war. and is sarah,

it's interesting if we look at the quite long list of countries that abstained in the general assembly united nations general assembly vote to condemn the russian invasion quite a long list of countries that abstained. now we had a non aligned block in the cold war, of course, but it had a lot less economic clout than this list of countries. what are the implications for the west of this fact? i think, i think in general, the image of a new cult we're is not really hitting the point here because we have a lot of countries that try to balance the western russia and also china. so the big difference is 1st that we do not have like 2 super blogs like west and soviet union, but more actors on the field. and the other thing is that all the countries also across this blocks and much more integrated, also economy in economic way. so that makes it hard for a lot of countries to,

you know, like to, to take a side. so, for example, if you are, you know, in southeast and asian country or an african country, you half economic relations with the west, but also was russia. so if the west impose sanctions, you're kind of in a dat lock because you basically have to decide which market is more important for you because it becomes much more complicated to maintain economical ations with both blocks. and that's also, i think, the most important reason why a lot of countries abstain from these votes because they really have to try to balance for they own economic good, but also for no political outlook in the future. and in fact, as you have mentioned, many of the countries that either abstained or in fact, joined to russia in the latest military exercise, have been getting cheap energy or weapons from russia. russia is using it's

abundant supply of energy resources as a weapon to destabilize the west. finding excuses to throttle gas flows, banking hundreds of millions, thanks to soaring prices that are taking a painful toll on european consumers. 70000 people protested against the government in prague. several right wing politicians have demanded leaders, radically rethink their stance on the war and ukraine. you stop this war that the government claims is our war. it is not our war italian right wing nationalist mateo sal vini, a candidate for prime minister and a friend of putin. as also called for an end to the war and western sanctions over but capers under the sanctions, are hurting germany in italy. above all, this won't force russia to its knees. we have to change cornel, such as the mood among many in germany has also shifted in leipzig and berlin. several 1000 people followed the call of the left party and protested,

skyrocketing costs of living caused by the war, excuse alumnis, the, our economic war against russia is crazy. it's not stopping the war in ukraine. and it doesn't hit president putin or the oligarchy, but rather millions of people in germany is the western front against putin. slowly starting to crumble. and we put that question straight at to alex a is put in, in the end, going to have the last laugh. it's a chicken game, right? so of course we're looking at russian saying, look, the economic sanctions are going to hit the winter. the popular support will transform itself the military, the shape of the military. we spoke about it. and the russian side looks at the mostly and says, well, you're not going to make it because you know, the yellow vests are still somewhere in the closet, and people are looking us when the french protest for president micron tried to raise energy. exactly. so the narrative is there and then it's a question of,

of an actual competition. it's going to be serious. but the same time i would like to be really disciplined about qualifying the pro, to so far in germany because it's a fringe element up till now. the governmental responses there, let's see how it works. and every bicycle activist demonstration in berlin as of now collect and get those more people than what has happened before at the moment, against, well, in the demonstrations you've showed in the clips. so i would be, i would be inclined to say, let's see, it's going to be complicated. sarah, to what degree is russian dis, information at work here in part behind the protests. russia has, of course, been pumping a lot of this information out, both toward russian populations in the baltics and, and eastern europe, but also to the west itself. yes, so we definitely see a resident russian dis, information at work, for example, the recent clip of about the german foreign minister where she's stated that she wants to maintain support for ukraine,

no matter what her load is. that was used by her, by a pro russian media outlet to really, you know, like target german discontent. but however, i think we shouldn't overestimate the impact of fresh and digital this information because it only works if there are hitting some discontent or movements or opinions that are already present in the german population. so what we have to work on is resilience also, you know, societal solidarity. and if we make that happen, and if do that, well, i think we're able to fight off the russian just doesn't finish and they're kind of solidarity was of course, the goal of the german government when last weekend did announced its biggest relief package so far focusing especially on vulnerable citizens like pensioners, students, people who receive social welfare support. michelle, will that package be enough to stave off social instability

and there are a number of warnings, making the rounds about a hot fall in germany, meaning street protests. yeah, well i actually agree with us or exceed that. i do not think that these protests will turn into something really massive and big as the friends radical parties to the left and the right wish for i do not see an eve. i see of why my constellation here as t linker and if the are working together as the nazis and the communists in the 1920s. nice reminder of the threats we are, we're having, but really at the fringes they haven't reached the center of society. and so far as the what i see in germany, people are rather common people also know what at stake, because what basically put in does by the, the destruction,

the deliberate destruction of the european russian gas relationship for good. it will never, ever be again, like that. and deliveries have just been halted once again through the north 3 and 2 gas pipe. when did your langley, and that's once and fall, and this will probably, in the end, hit russia much more because russian gas riches are in the west of siberia. they are designed to be export to, to europe. they will be sitting there. he will not be able to export it while we are re orientated to other places. it will be expensive, but we will have gas in the future. as we said, put in playing for time. how long will term and support for ukraine hold if it becomes really painful this winter when gas prices keep going up? depends very much on the government. if they run after every, every person who says something, i think the government so far and state cause. so i could imagine that throughout the winter they will be able to stay calls and not change their attitude on your

credit. and alex, a same question as to timing. when will western sanctions really begin to bite here they have where they have, but it's, you know, the roots, someone said it in a very nice way. it's not a bite of a cobra, but it's a boy with a string related russian economy. so it takes time, but it's already there and it's not reversible. this is why it's a game for time. and so we need to be cautious in this a bit for the winter, but i'm quite optimistic. let's have trust into our society. i think keep carmen, carry on is not just a british model. let me come back to our title as we move toward the end of our show. we asked whether russia's war games with china and india represent the start of a global arms race. looking at the current situation in the world, would you say that the age of disarmament has come to an end? i think it will become much more complicate to organize disarmament. so what we've seen over the last, maybe 10 to 15 years is again, arise of military expenditure,

but still it's way below the levels that we've seen during the cold war. however, i think nuclear also conventional disarmament in europe. for example, during a time of war is nearly impossible because that's basically a situation where none of the parties is interested in does our room. and because all the, like, all the actors perceive it as improving their very own security. so i think really it does remind would only be possible after we some kind solve the ukrainian, the cranny war plus and that's my nose is also at the point we have a different russian government. michelle, very briefly, what needs to happen for the west to win support for a revised revitalized schools based order that includes disarmament. i think what we need is trust in ourself and that we will make,

make it through the winter, and that actually we won't get nervous that we work and live at 19 degrees room temperature. and i think that there were worse times and the positive. so keep carmen, carry on and show resolution. thank you very much for all of you for being with us . and thanks to all of you out there for tuning in. see soon with,

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ah ah this is the w news coming to you live from berlin. the end of an era queen elizabeth, the 2nd has died at $96.00. united kingdom's longest reigning monarch passed away peacefully at ball moral castle in scotland. the crown now passes to her eldest son,