tv Conflict Zone Deutsche Welle September 16, 2022 1:30am-2:01am CEST
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oh, come to take a paralyzing to your societies computers then now some are you and governments that go crazy for your data. we explain how these technologies work, how they can work for that's how they can also go terribly. watch it now on youtube. or russia has suffered key reversals on the battlefield as chaos forces have counter attacked and sees back a wide sway the territory. my guess this week from moscow is andre kalashnikov, senior fellow at the think tank. the carnegie endowment for international peace as anger amounts among some of vladimir putin supporters. how vulnerable is he?
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he's ready to stay in power at all costs because she considers himself with his own mission and he must returns was grant greatness to russia. but the conflict to split russian society and radicalized both supporters and opponents of the war. how serious are the calls from local lawmakers for put in to resign? the will face treason charges? and what russia pose more of a threat to the west, if it winds your war all loses andre collecting cup in moscow. welcome to conflict zone. thanks a lot. seems clear that ukraine has made some important military gains in recent days as things stand now, how big a set back of these ukranian advances for the kremlin? you know, it's, it's a hard question because we don't see that as,
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as really answer to this counter offensive military answer. i mean, then political, warm and psychological in order not to let sit justify possible problems for the beginning. they said that this is regrouping for troops. not more but i think chrome is not ready to make any concessions in any diplomatic sense. and in the political science, it is ready for further war of attrition. it could be continued in the kremlin until now has this kind of resource. i've been primarily military resource. so this is going to be continued. do you expect marked escalation from the kremlin in response to ukrainian moves? i think it's possible is, could be natural as for from criminal site,
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given the thinking, it's very, very militarized. it's very aggressive, and that sense, i think they are pretty preparing right now. some see, military got the same times. they must find wars for different groups of, for the population because there are lots of hawks among people who are supporting, put him supporting of the war primarily and putting has problems was it was a support from, from just very group. because amongst the portraits of perkins, there is a group of course and a group of dos from dos as a she'll kind of authentic as they want to p stocks and vice versa. so pretty much described or military or sources they might describes a situation improper worse, but the total indifference,
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so the population saves. so right now put his problem put his can say that this is going to, it could just suck impulse, but very problematic situation. pushing i tell you from what you say there will be people, even among the elite to asking themselves if demon putin is still up to the job. we have the chechen leader rams and cut their off who doesn't hide his anger. he said, if today or tomorrow, changes are not made in the conduct of the military operation, i'll be forced to go to the country leadership to explain the situation on the ground. that's pretty direct and that's pretty insulting, isn't it for the president? since he has to spend the fangs, it's got a full the stress of that he's a soldier for him than simply obeying him. and she can implement any commands from kremlin are the sickly his. he is
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such a sincere person. when he's describing the current situation, i think he will get some science of command from kremlin to, to give you to all this topic because it's too sensitive for kremlin. this is an excess of one of the persons who are involved in this terrible disaster in this terrible conflicts. i don't think that could be serious. yes, yes, it is noticeable for a lot of people. but as the same tamped time generally doesn't change. the public opinion, the wrong doesn't change the situation and does not influence the military decisions. another people are responsible for a military answer to ukrainians. so it's symptomatic, but it is still not so dangerous. for bruton,
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we're not talking about what's in both discontent and science 0 it's i think we can witness different kind of just contents. but people are trying to be in youth leads because they care they afraid of their position and sizes, established rooms. we're also seeing for the 1st time political moves against the president from elected representatives will be at that local municipal level in both moscow and st. petersburg public calls for him to resign. and in the case of st. petersburg calls for him to face charges of treason. isn't it extraordinary? these moves, and how serious do you think they are? how serious could these become? this is very interesting phenomenon because politically, it is not so important for kremlin. it is not
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a danger for kremlin of any kind. it's because municipal gypsies do not play any significant role in this political system. but at the same time, it's symptomatic that people don't feel fear, the situation where they could, the persecutors for scandal letters and also mis fury. and the answer is very sultry. and to everyone who express she is almost view on all the situation. could be prosecuted by and by the so it is in terms of the criminal code to administrative court, some places. but nevertheless, people as threat such a fetish from the situation and then say once openly, voluntarily express discontent was put in sessions. this is something you know, special from the size of municipal deputies and maybe this is soon you
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sign up from growing discontent inside not only lead butts inside the society as such because municipal differences closer to society than any kind of the mother state level for deputies regional level or federal level, what happens if these actions spread to other municipal authorities or to moscow itself? how dangerous could that be for the president, the staples to the suppressed? and for the moment, nobody paid a lot of attention treats said just possible that all the people who stand this kind of letters could be in trouble. ah, i'm afraid that it's going to disprove that are all around the whole russian. in that case, yes,
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it's dangerous. promote primarily not for put in but for deputies again, but it's really important sets civil society still here and still says you still express and use not only using such tools come into the streets or draw casting because journalist but the writing classroom to top of story is accusing put him in a, in a state, sir. treason. this is an important sign. up till now. moscow has done everything. seems to have done everything to pretend that life is just the same as ever in russia. the mass funerals, no weeping mothers on television. the ballet and our proceedings are getting on the way and moscow museums galleries are open. the poppy boats going up and down the moscow river, is this fictional normality about to come to
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a sudden end to think we'll see full scale mobilization now. yeah, this is the right term fiction on march. put his create these impression then the people are creating needs specialists and persons in name big cities. ah. because for instance have don in who's funnel ellis of his quiet kids a good se state manager. moscow must leaf, so normal life in order to be distracted from all this atrocities some disaster is ukraine in france. and the rest stepped from put aside was not to announce general mil, military mobilization military address because it could provoke discontent among criminal costs. millions of people who are living in the big city or middle says they don't want to go to war. we can talk about, let's say college troops which are sitting their homes,
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what you to be in differently supporting the special operation. but as the same time, they don't think about those lean bullets into real war into trenches. and this is more for a poor population for groups of population. for people from republics, distance provinces could be soldiers. this is for so here up to tracks for this is a julie's in the, in brains for, for the russians, especially men, middle classes. here is one trip. i'm living my private life. as it was always, i am concentrating on the surviving. and in other trek as states rec, so people put in, initiated this war for cation knows better. i will not pay too much attention to
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his arguments, but he is always right. i will support that's indifferently not fiercely so and put him, gives me an opportunity to concentrate on my own business on my own problems. i don't wait for any help for him from him, but it's quite who's that he doesn't enroll into my problems. so it is useful for himself because she can continue this war and not paying for much attention, not, not attracting too much attention to it because atrocities people are trying not to pay a lot of attention to bad news. want to be on society for goodness natalie's the center of evil. and because of that they, they prefer to block bed information. and it's quite good for pretend right now. your one of the sharpest russian critics of the war in ukraine,
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and that even put in one of the sharpest critic, still writing and still in russia. do you not feel under threat yourself personally doing this? you know, there is such a special term color that risk, that so who could say that i am a scholar at risk but there are very different reasons for different people to stay in russia or to leave russian. and i know a lot of my colleagues and friends for us to hear. some of them are persecuted, some of them are arrested, for instance, micro political scientists and many guzman by this only an administrator for persecution, for him, or for the people as better. it's relief the russian, and in the case of persecution for any person here is better not to play this game
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with us for it is because it's dangerous from the one to your physical health and possible arrests, etc, etc. but from the point of view, for real research, from the point of view of understanding what is happening here from the point of view of your own attitude towards this regime. this is quite important to be here. so this is my country. my country is not equal to put his country, and i prefer to be here because i don't feel and to get a guilt. i don't feel and the responsibility works put on the thrusters. so this is my church. ah, but again, in some circumstances, been visible to, to, to leave the country just like it was inevitable for primarily prominent
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journalists to leave russia in order to contribute information, real alternative information for the russian populations. they can do it from inside until now i can broadcast and i can write. but it could finish in any moment. couldn't, doesn't scare you though, does he? he is a real, the stays for who is sincerely assured that nobody can shatter issues authority that he, she has mission to create new silver and she knew greatness to russia and she must consolidate people around him. and people are not ready to be consolidated . they are simply national 3. she's come a column and i miss for that cetera. he's not the president of the whole russian handle rushed in that sense. ah,
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maybe he respects she respects his enemies, but it doesn't mean that they are going to be persecuted because of this respectable status. so he says, sure is that he's doing arizona writes, you written at length about your country past, present future. but i was struck by how you recently connected the dots, russia you said, is i'm lucky with its future because it's on lucky with it's passed. it suggests your country is changed to what a violent history and can't find its way to breaking free from that. is that what you meant to convey? i mean, that's one of the grounds for put insidious gees the glorious past and very specific interpretation of the history. which is really falsification for your own history because she takes dark pages this of this past and he is what white
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fortune presents he's. whitewash and cur. the stolen his time. ah, and in that sense historical policy for him, this is a tool for gover. things this country. ah, he craves false glory is fast and this is a ground for consolidating around him. is an inheritor, it was a great. so if you full take a real posts, you will, you should be ready for any kind of normal reading coast as fast. we can make conclusions from its best conclusions, horrible conclusions, but this is the ground for going somewhere for the future. just like just like it wasn't perestroika test we, when we, we became to to know something about ourselves,
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not or fast. it was, it became an open window for the future for moving from a horrible past normal future to westernize it and modernize it's russia right now it's receives vice versa. so it's very important to recreate understanding of your own posts in cable to know and to admit that some pages in this past was horrible. were horrible. you said the put in whitewash is the style in his period now, but it wasn't always that way. 5 years ago, he stood by the so called wall of grief in moscow and said it was important to remember the repression that took place in soviet society. and now children are taught in your schools that the old soviet union didn't repress anybody. what changed putin do you think?
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i, i don't believe in the evolution of putting a few options in a year to solvent one. he only inches away. total power i. comparison was muscle miscellany, in terms of can restore assumption, military and features which were typical for the past. and he simply adapted to current circumstances from the beginning. he was inheritor of he else and he had to support some ideas about democracy. good relations with west, et cetera, et cetera. but now he stops those a sincere he is free from politeness. he lost his shame. absolutely. she disrupted all the plans for the west. so he subsided. russia. he
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express central, was it. so for humor, repression. this is ruth, she admits he is ready to say that there were repressions, but at the same time she can't needs and she came to law to speak people to me that it was so significant since history. maybe it was true which could so help her. stalin to rule to create an order. so it's kind of a contradictory approach seats, but nevertheless, right now to whitewashed everything. last week, your group published research showing that the war had divided rather than united russians, and both sides had been radicalized by this conflict. what do you think will be the
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last thing, effects of this polarization now, in russian society? yes, russia splits sheer, a good russians and bed rations, as i said. so anybody who is against us is not our l. i. and get that sense. we can say both citizens for the 2nd shorts and russia labeled for an engine. so simply people who are not trust war, see for top a story is and yes, so the problem is that pillars ation leads to radicalization of from use people who are supporting, put in a particular fiercely right now and put into when a support ticket also became more sure, so not supporters. a few. there are some sleet society to different groups. as i
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said, even amongst supporters of portent, there are people who prefer, for instance, more hawkish approached as a war and the group for which prefers less focused approach. but generally speaking, this is a sweet and it, it has linked to, let's say, hybrid civil war between the russian group. so the population not physically is not visible as a physical city. real, real war between different groups who are fighting was it said, it is more about entities so where it's not support to support in this as again to the citizens to a 2nd start from. i'm sorry to interrupt you, but we're running out of time. i just want to get to
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a couple more points. you say that russia is at a dead end, a historical debt, and as you put it, what did you mean by that car? you can move forward? can't move backwards. if, if it's true that it's, it's a dead end, what happens next? destination must retrace itself. she will was, it must google see there are receiving is a k. but i feel as the most fear assaulting him kind of a despair is unusual and people are very petticoat and another to guest new incentives for new development. we need new governments, let's say such a simple approach put in much disappear in a political way. i mean, they know that you can't find a next it's from mars is dead ends in order to get your incentive for
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a new development for modernization of this country. and one more problem is, so the problem of collective responsibility for, for, we are waiting for a lot of discussions about and we are involved in discussions right now about collecting for responsibility. and it's difference with collective guilt are responsible for it. so we will be in a situation just like her german nation after the 2nd world war. what happens if putin can't claim victory? the if the reversals on the battlefield continue? will he pose more of a threat to the west if he wins, or if he loses? i think it's substance li equal or she can be dangerous or being for terrorists. and he can be dangerous being in a, in a defeat situation. but he's really could be coroner,
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it could be that insulted by, by the said defeat. and of that sense. she could be more gen, montana because he has a nuclear weapon. this is a main problem. but generally speaking, he can describe his defeat as a victory for the population and population will accept it's again the indifferently because here is a fairly crumbs this war and people are waiting for a frozen end of the story is the same time sandra. sounds that it could be prolonged, it's the longest war and say, morally, ready to the problem. nation of this disaster. very briefly, do you think he's just desperate to stay in power at all costs? yes, he's ready to stay in power. it's all costs because so again, she considers himself as of this sort of his own mission and he must returns
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ukraine's battlefield gates put in under pressure to the point. in 30 minutes on d. w hotel, the landscape, a reflection of a turbulent history. the cities, the mosaic of different people and languages. the ron's mountains revealed unparalleled beauty. ah, a special look at a special country. iran from above. in 75 minutes on d w. oh. we're all good to go beyond the obvious with
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