ah, not just another day. so much is happening all at once. we take time to understand this is the day in depth look at current news, events with analyzed by experts and critical thinkers. not just another new show. this is the weekdays on d, w. ah, russia is further escalating it's war in ukraine. moscow is mobilizing $300000.00 additional soldiers and talks about using quote, all military means including the use of nuclear weapons. also, moscow is orchestrating for so called referendums to annex for ukrainian province. western governments unanimously condemned those sham referendums. but we'll

countries like germany and now finally send those heavy weapons. that key needs to repair the russian aggression. that's all topic today on to the point war in ukraine. is this still time to deescalate with hello. welcome to to the point, i'm good, how that 1st, let me introduce today's pat. this professor marina hanker security and defense expert at the hottest school. and we have more, it's got my chief report at the german politics monthly. cicero is live in russia for many years and traveled to ukraine, only recently, an island, madeleine ex, expert on german and u. s. defense policy at the german society for foreign policy. i

this address to the nation on wednesday. putin has implied that he's ready to use nuclear weapons even. and is it safe to say a marina? let's start with you. of the chances to in this war just significantly dropped. well, i think his entire speech signals that he isn't ready to just am given and there was a whole on the ukrainian side and also on natal side that the counter offensive by the ukrainians, which was truly impressive. by the way, would stop that war and bring russia to its knees were at least, you know, reduce its will to fight. and i think, you know, like, what besides dead was that the hawks in moscow won over. and that put now tries to push back, but of course, the big question is, you know, does this mobilize ation actually occur? i, can he, you know, get ready, 300000 more troops. and i have my doubts. and you know, like when it comes to the use of nuclear weapons, sam, it's, you know, i'm convinced i do a lot of research on nuclear weapons, and it won't actually change the fundamental dynamics of this war,

tactical nuclear weapons that he's mostly talking off work actually you know, only talking off our psychological weapons and i think by now that you're creating population it even the western population are kind of used to this rhetoric and won't be that shocked. and or, you know, kind of like, pushed into submission that and brush i was hoping for more it's, he also said at the very end of his speech, i'm not bluffing. isn't that we're bluff as always so yeah, that's what i would say if you sit at the poker table and you bluff and you say, i'm not laughing, this actually are the retail or it should irritate or their counterparts. and i also think that we shouldn't overestimate what he was saying about nuclear weapons . basically he was saying he was threatened, threatening this since march when the west was starting a heavy lead to heavily support the ukrainians with the weapons. but it didn't

happen. and or i have the whole, but he's not the only to decide. yes. other people who have also to give their consent to the use of nuclear weapons. i hope for other people will hinder him from doing this. and i listen to yesterday to you as president joe biden at the you when reacting to put in speech early what, what do you make of by this reaction to his speech yesterday, or it wasn't very strong, was it? well, i think we should also see that in context with other statements by biden, and just recently, by, in a couple of days ago, said in, you know, in the direction of putin don't do it, don't do it, don't do it. i. e, referring to the possible use of nuclear weapons. so i think the u. s. is very, they're determined in it. and it's will to 1st off to the cr further support

ukraine and also to signal to moscow not to overstep the red line of using nuclear weapons in order to achieve its goals. now we've talked about this a speech wherever me booted. let's briefly listening to what he actually said, especially about mobilization, which are partial mobilization means that only reservices will be drafted and it's those who have already served in the army for who have specialized military knowledge and experience as a report of those who are newly drafted you will undergo additional military training. your 4th grade was due now marina, what does he game with his partial mobilization? and what does it mean? well, he potentially get 300000 new soldiers and that's a lot them. he has been losing a lot of those soldiers. who are they just they are fully firm who have a basic military training care solar at one point in us old and russia has asked conscription system. so i'm,

all of them have undergone some kind of training at some point, but of course, and that's why you know, like it took so long to certain degree to have this partial mobilization because a lot of western commentators were saying why isn't put in doing this much sooner they're actually anticipating such a decision already around may when he has a head as big as military parade. but he was still very hesitant. and you know, like now am it. i think it's signals that he does realised that he is cornered that, you know, like, he's kind of losing the battle that he needs to make a move. but, you know, like there, we also saw that there was, there is an in opposition. there was an uprising of people you know, on air can have a protesting this move for google searches of how to leave russia. and one way tickets are yet are skyrocketing as or you know, why was put in waiting so long because he feared that they would beat this going opposition. and i think to a certain degree, this is what we're seeing. but, and, you know, like of course, and their security apparatus in russia is so powerful that i actually think they

can end up in the back as they have done before. now this a mobilization of 3000 troops. um we just heard that they had some kind of military training on it. just come in florida. i think so i'm i'm also what we have to bear in mind is that those 300000 reservists, they will not immediately be sent into place. the front lines, it'll take up a couple of months actually for them to arrive there and as not, you know, just and also pointed out while they have undergone basic training, they need to be retrained. and also there's the question of equipment and adequate equipment. and there's a big question mark, whether they will be properly equipped in order to, to withstand the ukrainian m counter offensive. and i pretty strong. exactly. and i think, well, i have my doubts that they will be actual, you know, like that they can be compared to professional soldiers. what i would like to add the question of motivation. so now you will have 300000 people or

will basically be forced to go to war. it's a different type of people than those who were already fighting. we have those troops from the don bus, old men from the, from the don bus region who were basically defending their region. we had a russian professional soldiers who were doing this for money. and now you will have people who are forced to do this. and there is a big question mark as to where these people are really motivated to fight it. just one follow up. how is this being viewed in russia? is mobilization? well, it if i can speak from the conversations from with friends, they are shocked. because actually what i wanted to add is that in this mobilization, it's called parcel mobilization by putting but if you look at the laws that were passed in the state duma,

it's the general mobilization. it leaves the door open to really getting all manipulation into, into this war. so people are really asking themselves now, should they leave the country or not? i watched one man and on this russian independence her tv channel dawson was saying that this war is not about me. i won't go to war. i think this is very typical for how russians view this war. because up to now, this big support for, for the, for the war in and polls, it was basically passive support because put in, it didn't interfere into the comfort zones of the common people. they said, okay, let him do this war as long as i don't have to go there. but now the situation changes . of course, i don't want to say just what it is at that on the other hand,

shift ukrainians who are highly motivated to defend their country. in comparison to, you know, those reservists who have very low morale and also low morale, which we could already witness in the sort of sit in the professional branch of the russian armed forces. now this is all happening now in after ukraine actually made some significant gains in their counter offensive proteins speech has to be regarded in that live. let's have a look at ukraine in advance and the area they have re taken now there, we can see it. among this strategically important railway, a hob, a coup, johnson. this could hurt hooton's supply lines further already. one of the russian weak spots of russia loses more territory, new crane will increasingly look also like a massive personal simulation for vladimir putin. so how

significant are these are gains these advance for luxury put so i think it looks fairly small on that map, but it's actually in a thousands of square kilometers. but i think more than that, it just shows that the ukrainians are capable of launching a very complex campaign. and you know, like our prior to february 24th and even the 1st couple weeks of that war. a lot of folks that are ukranian and do not have any military am capabilities to speak of. and now they're, you know, taking back and, you know, the fortified country from, for, from the russians. and so i think, you know, like what, it really signals that the training at that they have received from various needle partners is working. and also that they can actually handle very heavy and highly sophisticated equipment. and of course, that, you know, like, sends a message that whatever, you know, like the west has been doing and isn't just, you know, like, sharing them with this,

with the stuff out. but they can actually put it to good use. and that's also, you know, like a different lesson learned from what happened, for example, if against any rock. and there, lot of, you know, military forces were trained. but then, you know, like when they were actually asked to fight, they didn't fight. but he v. c, the ukrainians. fighting, now this, these advances seem to have also triggered these a so called referendums in the dawn bus and, and, and other regions. what difference will these referendums make? well, i think the biggest difference and also we should point out it's, it's fake, it will be manipulated. so it's not an actual referendum that we will be witnessing . and i think the biggest difference for from viewed from from pu, seen or from russia, is that should they be integrated into the russian federation, they will be regarded as russian territory. and so if now ukraine, ukrainians are, will continue to, to launch counter offensive in order to retake that territory. russia could be

compelled to, to point out, well now and you crane is actually attacking russian. i'm territory, which could then, so give him a pretext to further emasculate. and he could also say once he done, once he's done that, he could also say, ok, that's enough. let's sit down and talk. well, this is so difficult question to say that, of course this could happen in 2 or 3 weeks or that's russia could start like a charming offensive or. and of course, this could somehow be dangerous for the pope, for public opinion in the west, because we maybe germany, i can say for germany, we feel some war fatigue. yeah. in germany you saw the looks like a poisoned offer from the russian side of course. yeah. because i think that the

ukrainians are not willing to actually take the sad negotiation offer and for good reason because the momentum is on their side. and what my college is said at the mobilization will take time at probably at least a month to month until we see any soldiers have any impact on that front of course the ukrainians. i want to use that and push further. and i also think that actually in the united states, they on it ukraine side and also doubt that, you know, like kind of their negotiation, all the lead to any significant result. and i think, you know, like what we and germany need to learn is that only because we reach a settlement doesn't mean that there's piece, right, that can be a lot of violence after a settlement. and that is then, you know, an insurgency because there's the fighting will the fighting spirit of the ukrainian people and not just in west ukraine, but meanwhile, also in large and swath of eastern ukraine is so strong that they will never accept any kind of russian occupation even if it's then officially annexed by russia. do you agree? oh, what kind of scenario do you have? well, i, i agree, and i,

i just wanted to add that there is also the matter of trust the ukrainians, rightly point out, why should we trust anything? the russians are seeing, or cream chew given was we are given the behavior that we've been witnessing since 2014. and that i would agree to it. it'll also be very difficult for western leaders to trust in anything that comes in and says, and his people will offer at negotiations whenever and wherever they will take place. um, you mentioned a germany a little earlier. germany has already delivered weapons to ukraine, including a heavy weapons like how it says the chief keeps pushing for the crown jewel as well. germany is famous, main battle tank levered to, but germany is still reluctant to say the leper too is one of the best battle tanks in the world. the $1500.00 horsepower tank is extremely high tech and is at the top

of ukraine's wishlist. but germany is largest governing party, the s p d and it's chancellor refused to deliver at the same time, however, all of shaw it stresses deutschland is but germany is ready to take on leading responsibility for the security and safety of our continent on to. how does this go together? even the usa and the e, you have nothing against the delivery of the leper to, to keep today more than ever. it is necessary that ukraine gets the military capability. it needs to defend itself. the bundis via currently has more than $225.00 lepper two's which means it could only deliver a few without jeopardizing its defense readiness. but other nato countries also have the leopard to that, inventories and could participate and deliveries which germany as the manufacturing country has so far prevented. will the german government given soon?

indeed will the german government and many other western governments change tack after pollutants. most recent speech, i think so i think that was kind of our chancellor schultz will not be able to withstand the pressure that's coming from within his coalition party. but also that as i'm coming from from western allies and not least, that the pressure that is being served, it's come from from keith. and i think there's also no logical reason to, to withholds the delivery of flappers to tangs. so why, why the reluctance anyway, they sent in heavy weapons how it says rocket launchers in all the but they do not want to send in the main battle time. one of the very effective weapon. why

i have feeling that not only shoulds, but the west all over, they want to leave room for negotiations with put in. so they basically told, put in from the very beginning and the month since the beginning of the war. that ok, we could also deliver this and that to the crane, but we're not doing this at this point as long as you're not doing this or that. and so in this situation, i would say that to the west basically told or russia that as long as you don't, and next these territories, we won't go the next step of escalation. this would be sending a western tanks to ukraine, but my feeling is, and also salts said this chancellor sold or after his last phone call with put in that is a further step off annexation of ukraine in territory won't be left unanswered. so i would say that after these referendums and probably the annexation of these

territories by russia, we must see the delivery of german or western tanks to ukraine. so was just said the reluctance was basically the west trying to keep its powder dry. would you agree? well, and you know, and of course, from all sides, there is still this theory that an certain, you know, red lines might be crossed by the ukrainians. and so that they are then, you know, i would attack russian territory. and that's why, you know, like the long range missiles have been held back into a certain degree, you know, like these there. and that tanks, they're very, very fast answer. they could be used. you know, i don't think it's actually that's that, that they are koreans attention but you know, they could be used for dash across the border and they're very powerful vehicles and how that sir is and you know, like other equipment that is there is like, much harder to move them, you know, they can also be move, but it's, you know, it takes much longer as i think that is, you know, it's still this idea of like,

you know, we want, we want to control the ukrainian because we are scared that they might, you know, kind of cross these red lines because the big picture of things needle is, of course, still worried about russia. i mean, this is one of the, one of the most important points that i heard again and again, again that the west or nate or germany in this particular case is afraid of becoming part of this war party to this war. is that realistic? and what does that even mean? well, 1st of all, i think that would mean sending troops ourselves, which we have ruled out again and again, and which i think is prudent. so, in, i mean, yeah, we are, well, it is true. we are not a party to the conflict in the sense that we are, you know, that we are sending him our troops. however, we are not a neutral party either. we stand by the side of ukraine and have been doing so from the very beginning. so i think that's a sort of

a discussion that distracts from what's really important. and i think it's a discussion to mainly guided by the fear of overstepping a red line as viewed and dictated by russia. and i think that's not the sort of the guideline that we should be falling, but rather what do we need to do in order to help you crane fight back russia for the use of the thing? is that the way that put in his last speech, he basically changed the story line of this conflict from russia is fighting ukraine that has support from the west to russia fighting the collective west, as he said, so inside russia. now, the elite, the political lead, and the propaganda, the t v shows they are telling the story that's actually russia, if fighting the collective west that wants to destroy russia. you know, i think you shouldn't be ashamed of that. this is a war for aggression. russia marched into an independent sovereign state,

which is ukraine without any, any reason to do so apart from taken in that country because of, you know, like an aggressive intentions. so i think it's only fair than to come to the 8 of that country. that is defending itself, but you advocate that we go even further? well, i think we should be very firm in our mission. and our mission is that we're defending a democracy that was egress by and a peer of power. so now do you know back off and say all the russians are portraying, there's a battle of, you know, like the west against us? well, the truth is, you know, that you're helping a country that it was egress by russia. that's exactly one nation that started this war and that is russia. and so i think in this entire, you know, like sometimes to be to gentile with russian feelings is wrong. again, party to this war, many germans fear missiles over berlin. is there realistic? no, i think that's an over clone fear why i don't want to discount those are the concerns

that many people have seen that we are now witnessing a, a main conventional war on european territory. however, i don't think that it's realistic and plausible to assume that russia will, will, you know, will attack either germany or any other nato country in, in, in the near future. however, we should definitely be on the lookout, which i think it is very important that nato is increasing its troops on the so called eastern flank in order to make sure that protein understands to not overstep a line or red line by, by interfering with these countries by attacking these countries, i will to come to my last question and also asked that same question to you is in every one of you, can the west actually still deescalate, in this war? what i think actually is happening right now is that india in china deescalate, in the war. and so we were always like,

watching very closely what was the chinese and what was also, you know, like the indian in the global south reaction. and at the beginning of the war, you know, like they were not necessarily in it, but they were supporting russia. and what we saw in the last week and even yesterday is that china is now more and more publicly stating we want negotiations . i had like, they're not happy with russian was and so was india who the have the effect though? i think it will. because basically, the russians the support, you know, like that they have externally, but also what's happening in ukraine and internally maybe slowly is diminishing and enroll in one form or another lead to a change. what the change is, i cannot say, but it's certainly not strengthening. put his hand, the only country that can deescalate the situation is russia because russia started this war of aggression against ukraine. so i wouldn't frame our or the west reaction as a further escalation or answering an escalation with further escalation ends. but

that doesn't mean that we, if you know, if the ukrainians are willing and ready to it, to return to the ghost, the ating table i wish and support that move. obviously we should, if ukraine says it's time. and if there's that, if you know, happy content with the, with the territorial gains they have achieved, i would say that too, we need to continue our stark support for you korean continue o delivering weapons. but on the other hands, we should be very clear in our messages towards russia, towards the people in russia that we are not fighting the russian people. this is not a war to destroy russia as putting, puts it. so these are the 2 factors. i think that a very important, this is the only thing that we can do. thank you all very much. that's it. for this week's edition of to the point of view from the discussion. interesting and a few watching us on youtube. please join the conversation,

lead your thoughts in the comments below. we love to hear from you. thanks watching . see you next week on to the point with ah, ah . with

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ah ah. with this is dw, live from berlin annexation votes begin in russian held regions of you crate western powers have cooled. the referendums ashamed, they say russia will fix the outcome to justify their illegal occupation of ukrainian territory across the.