d, w dot com, highlight tool interest the global economy, our portfolio, d w business beyond. here's a closer look at the project. our mission. to analyze the fight for market dominance. this is where it head with the w business, beyond blue, sham referendums in the occupied regions of ukraine and more russian troops are drafted into battle. but the protests are increasing across the country. i guess this week had his own unique protest, very spun, very all foreign service veteran resigned in shame of the war in ukraine. the only russian government official to do so in public. what are the chances of putin

surviving the conflict? he started a, in these elect mail threats is the only instrument to try to get himself out as the war goes on. how real is the nuclear threat and why do russian officials believe the west wouldn't retaliate against the nuclear strike from moscow. but it's monday off. welcome to conflict zone hello team. before we talk about your personal story, i'd like to deal with some of the latest events going on in the russia ukraine war . let's start with the so called referendums, taking place in for ukraine in regions occupied by russian troops asking people if they want to join russia itself. since no one is going to believe the result. why bother with this? i think it's barley for them to come to convince people within the rush that it

is all right and. ready those people in these new creat republics are really wishing to join the russian. so it's given the government. ready no reason to, to continue the world not to the fact that people. ready region and so on. so it's do more domestic relations. and you think the domestic population is that gullible, that they're going to believe it. they know by now that russia doesn't hold elections unless it fixes them in advance of it. well, you know, the rest of the asian, which is the main problem is it has been so far, very different. what's going on? oh, science. so just so it's only these days. some of them are starting to understand

that the war is much closer than it was then they thought it was. and so yeah, i think. ready regardless, it's still believing that they can't sell any anything to bit things 3 people. even now we've seen in the last few days after chaos over the partial mobilization, which put in ordered. the criminal says it's drafting $300000.00 troops to ukraine . other reports say around a 1000000, how much difference do you think these extra troops will make because the failure so far haven't been caused by troops shortages have they, they've been caused by low morale, poor logistics weapons that haven't worked poor command structures. that's been the problem, hasn't it? yeah, i guess so, and i believe that these new numbers do in the com all at once to the front line. they will not change the course, or they will can only make it more slow or rush to to,

to the war. because the army being so far, very informed in terms of stress in terms of military planning. so basically managing the ration and so it's all so so for now the main superiority might say, so oh, the russian army in comparison to the was. ready the numbers, the numbers, so i think they can only find that was numbers. one of your most powerful criticisms of the russian government that you served is that it's part of a system that deceives itself. is that the military problem as well, it's been deceiving itself about its capabilities about its weapons, the state of its preparedness, this kind of thing. yeah, sure, sure, this is a absolutely comp will all branches of rough environment. it is all on these lives

on cells, cells competing records and so on. so we're going to see it by the database. we bring the 1st place. it's just that he missed his own brain and the ability to bring in our and the reaction of the west was all a great mystical ation based on misinformation you received from me to support a 1000000000 service from municipal defense and so on. but do russian officials even know where the truth really live any more? well, it's hard to say that because i think the very low level people who work really in the field so to speak to they know the truth. but while they're being reported to it, it's in many ways. so it's no surprise that the decision makers on the up on the

chain, they sell the information which is not reflecting reality for over 20 years that you worked in the foreign ministry. you said the level of lies and unprofessional nationalism was increasing all the time. is that what was demanded by the bosses? just tell the gramm then what they want to hear. that's it. yes. yes, because if you reported to moscow. ready the situation is not always favorable to us, they might make things that you don't work well enough and it will. ready make your career prospects less than you. ready expect so everybody wants to breeze now school to show that they are and then you've got 3 promotions. and also that, that you believe that you said in may that you had recently seen misleading

information cable to moscow because that's what they wanted to hear. what was that information mostly it was the, the russia, russian interest, russian positions. ready and. ready world is very widely shared by many countries, but the russia to not isolated the western. ready of balls and everybody on this down the death falls for instance. it also goes to the chemical, scandalous about this. ready fall poison on the line and boy for it for instance, and some other things. so it is, you know, these reports. ready being when you, when you have to report the truth, but you have to you guys and so nobody understand inches, it's a kind of art and see what that this is a very bad art. you're, you're very scathing about the foreign minister. said a lover off,

did you expect better from him? you say he said to mize the degradation of the system. well, well, he seems it done a lot of illusion where we have to what we see now. another symbol of this system which is now denying the reality so i don't expect anything from the anything from the big our i'm here to for them. and i think that. ready well. ready all see be. ready collapses, when it collapse. yeah. i base based on what all the lives that they've told they suddenly realize, but nothing is true that everything's going wrong. and it's too late to do anything about it. is that, is that the scenario that you foresee?

i believe that that is all, but it depends on the war and but i don't see russia achieve the real serious it can be used on it, even worse than countries star, sublime and you bring it all the way around this well, so i'll just be doing it, in all other scenarios, you will have to retreat. you will have to go down and down. it will be very, very hard to be in the run up to the invasion when rushing diplomats all over the world were ridiculing the idea of war. did you know the putin was going to invade the us knew about it last autumn and said, so did, did you noted people in your embassy? no. this was going to happen. no. well, it was the information. all the decision was not disclosed to. ready almost

anyone. so it was only personal guessing whether you will decide to wait or not. i personally didn't believe because i would foresee all these consequences that they would do with house. i was pretty sure that law school also has this knowledge, this understanding. but evidently they didn't. evidently, they missed quickly that they were, as i said, how moscow lied to its own embassies as well as to everyone else. oh well. ready yeah, i would say. ready like they just don't tell and being that they don't want to tell . and they, the embassy just being for that you said what disturbed you most in the russian embassy was the casual way. some of your fellow diplomats talked about nuclear strikes against the west, even though they worked in control. did they have no idea how these nuclear strikes

that they were talking about might lead to world war 3? or the consequences of that? you know, these are very dangerous being in the april or boasting about this but to do it you. ready to, to make a purchase, right? again, again, the 1st place those people are sure that there will be knowledge of age that the west will just swallows and just to the knees. and let's say let's again, ok, we're ok let's, let's make it really believe that what, what makes them believe that i think it's a very old and con, break. it is regarding the western, it's irrational that the west, some people are very weak and where it pampers because they are very used to comfortable that you know, and that they're not ready to sacrifice like for the war because every war makes it

makes, it makes it people's life and we were known to all the world we can stop up or as long as it takes. well it's not the worst, but it and the people who me big items they. ready share this view. at one point you asked your former colleagues if they'd be happy for their children to live in radioactive ruins. and they simply reply, this is about values traditional russian values as opposed to those of the decadent west. so in their minds it's ok to blow the west if the west doesn't share these wonderful russian values because it's all these talk about imaginary because no one can really imagine what will be what that. ready will be and of course they just tried to make themselves more confident about

that. but i believe that some decisions can be made on these are ross and fortunes. in the last few days, we've heard more threats from mister, put in more unrest across russia itself. some common treason suggested that amid all this chaos putin's power is beginning to drain away, do you by that scenario, i think that this bill is ation arranged by the end of the of the k green. but the last reserves mailed it to me to me to use. so we have a rest in the, in the, in the regions, different 3 years. so i can do that and rest and to remodel will be

the rising coming days. how long can you make as many mistakes and joke up as many failures as he has and remain in power these days in russia? it's hard to say it's hard to say. i think the faith regime is 3 strongly abandoned. that was on the bill already seemed that the hard to potentially bitter successful did make the blow under the additional, the russian army, the russian government, even with the in the support of so he will continue and i will. ready continue getting or if he's right, i mean that will drill. it'll be career might be i guess my question is more about the, the hard line, political insecurity,

elite in moscow. they're not exactly known for having a forgiving nature. how much of this, how much more of this will they put up with, do you think, i mean, we've got a long list of failures. we have the failure to take care of the failure to arrest the landscape. the failure to hold on to the territory that they've captured high casualties. hardware that doesn't work, poor morale has to put in has to be running out of political capital at home. doesn't do well. well, because we cannot judge because we don't have any information. it's very close, but there's no doubt that the russian us please now and a lot of them want to, to change started the john paul. but i think the also now the most powerful figures around which got to. ringback all armed forces, special services, the deal, sticking to him for some reasons, maybe they don't believe that can resolve

a situation like he was general. were very loyal to human, to the very yeah. so all they cannot nothing with the nation to think about the future without themselves without power. so it's very difficult to break it, but it's, it's natural that there will be most believes and we will, i think we will see it by nea. if you strip away over the lies the accusations, the propaganda. do you in your own mind, have a clear idea why putin started this war? yeah, she started this war because he wants to stay in power. you're struggling for lifetime. and since he cannot sell in any success, because the economy is shrinking, if it seems to the team,

the in the daily life of most people in russia has be deteriorated. instead, he can only sell some military successes. that's why he wanted to read because it is all right, life look, raise brushing rules. so defense ration interesting. so if that were for some years like it was raining and he just wanted to repeat this premium f sites. so this idea that he felt threatened by nato, and he thought nato countries were trying to, in circle russia. although how you in circle a country that has 11 times ends and it's 10 percent or 11 percent of the world land mass. it's difficult to imagine, but all that's nonsense, all that was nonsense, was it that may be a 2nd thing. it was been came about, but i think the interest over securing personal power into the most important. we

also talk about the needs. it's about possible western interfering listening to domestic affairs in order to instigate progress. but within them here is they feel the growth is within. the country cannot just be created by the people that they said despite. it's only it's only orchestrated by the west. so it's, it's another thing, but the 1st reason you just, you do do semantic green power. does he want to fight with nato? i hope not. but you know, he put himself in the worst because no, i think these bless my own house reps. the only instrument he was to try to get some so out considering how you've denounced the war and the lies of the russian government. how worried to you about your own safety?

i. i don't really think about this very much. i believe that now when i leave it in such a dangerous time that we all must think about the safety of more than our individual . ready so that's, that's my, that's my answer. well, i know, i don't think much about a whole spate of key figures, business men, people in society who may or may not oppose the war have landed up dead recently. many seem to have had an expected accident or jumped out of upstairs windows. not a coincidence. is it opperation on the way? isn't there in russia? yeah, it's very suspicious going incidentals or yes, i have no information about that. i think all these cases should be together. but why wouldn't it? let me come back to the issue of nuclear weapons because several,

west and officials among them america's national security advisor say they've spelled out to the kremlin the exact catastrophic consequences of going nuclear. do you think in any way that will deter putin your control business will not well deter us even worse when both sides are whole like this disease. this by the session, both parties are reasonable and they don't want to die. and they just want to keep your and the male diversity. ready at the distance, in this case we've done well, it's simulating, but that's what is it, he is not quite reasonable, or maybe he is really reasonable. we don't know. so we've done that. he may come on to talk to starts and strikes. we don't know. so in this case,

if we deal with the man or that if it's okay to start, what then deterrence may not work if russia really intends to use a nuclear weapon, what would be the signs to look out for? do you get any of these signs now? do you see any of them signs that moscow is reading its nuclear arsenal for use? well i need to know if that's difficult to show that my school is really. ready red in its troops or drivers. so i believe that the intelligence gathered by the western classes is much more reliable and they went out in the depth. no such science. but i got to read the whole blessed temple that the bible rash and some troops were distributed in all radiation.

radiation deals. so something, at least they will be ready for an invoice. i don't know, maybe it's just a proper dentist. so i don't know the rhetorical russian leadership and a nuclear lived in my own way, february 24th. so if we judge by rhetoric, you can say that they would read into new but since the beginning of the war, but it's not sole evidence. so whether they will be ready to start that that's, that's a big question. that's it appears that some of the fail safe mechanisms designed to prevent nuclear war have in part, been eroded. i'm talking about direct communications between senior russian and american military leaders. these appear to have stopped how dangerous is that

it is very dangerous because those general, those communication channels very useful, see the current be in boxes. and they did it aloud to the key military commanders to talk directly with each other that degrees in their wraps and war. but the current situation, when both sides are not, do not trust the job, so to speak, the channels me, i'm just working so under those circumstances, how easy would it be for one side to misread the signals or the other and launch a war on a false understanding of the facts is very, very probable, right? i'm sure is very, very nervous about any possible science. i don't know,

attacks or any other interference. wasn't supposed to go into the brain or so they can, i don't know what, what, what they read last. what was that they are some read life so they can be very well is we always assume the rational leadership hasn't been very inadequate. cindy, so it's very hard to say how. ready perceive the information they get from the front line from the native classes so they can decide something or something imaginable without real real reasons for that. so the there is. ready so what you're saying is that this could all get out of hand very quickly. i would say that if john get out of and but also the rest of that is, well,

i think it up to the native countries do not. so i don't know one for them to to start maybe maintain wanted with. ready was it rationally it around maybe a 2nd or 3rd, ashland rush hour to, to present them? that is the only obstacle again to the normalization level relations the gallons would not be gone with his blows both boxes and then the situation may be like reversed that i think that may may go to those people. ready to, to rally with the in the truck vital to try and keep us many communications open as possible. communication. yep. yep, sure. maybe not. maybe it shouldn't be isolated from he's supporters that the workers lead the russian. they leave. it's very but he spun that off.

thank you very much for being on conflict. so it's good to see thank into it. ah. blue blue with

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