he dot com ah, for the united states there is one country aiming to reshape the global order, which increasingly has the means to make that happen. china, that is the main headline from the by demonstrations national security strategy released today. china, the long term challenge and russia, the immediate threat. but how long is immediate? the reply from both biden and nato to night is this. we will support ukraine against the russian invasion, for as long as it takes, i'm burnt off in berlin. this is the day. ah rushes, latest assaults have only deepened the determination of the ukrainian people. that

a message from the nato allies will be at that we are steadfast and our support to ukraine. we will continue to boost ukraine's defensive capabilities for today's urgent needs. and for the long haul, we are prepared for a long haul and that we will support them for as long as it takes us are coming up only one month on the job and u. k. prime minister lives trust, it has financial markets spooked. the british pound, plummeting, and there are even calls for her to resign. what we have done is we have i tonight, mr. speak avoiding the question, doc, king responsibility. last in denial. no wonder investors have no confidence in how government went to our viewers watching on p b. s. in the united states. and to all of you around the world. welcome. we begin

the day with the to threats to the world. as we know it, that, according to the biden administration to day you, as president biden released, his national security strategy, a prediction of geo politics for the near and long term through washington's eyes. china stands out as the biggest challenge to the international order. the white house says that beijing is intent on spreading its model of authoritarian rule and that it is quickly achieving the economic and military power needed to turn plans into action. but in the immediate future, the u. s. c's, russia, as the biggest threat, one that needs to be contained through a unified front. that is the message delivered today in brussels, where native members are meeting along with 50 other countries committed to helping ukraine. here is the us defense secretary, lloyd austin. and in the past few days, putin has given us all another grim preview of a future in which the appetites of aggressive autocrats outweigh the rights of

peaceful states. but we're going to do everything we can, as far as we can to help the ukrainian forces get the capability they need to protect the ukrainian people. that's very, very important to us. we would all be less secure. in a world war big powers can assault their peaceful neighbors, and trampled their borders by force. well that nato meeting taking place is rushing airstrikes in ukraine continue more civilian targets were destroyed today. the 3rd consecutive day of massive aerial assaults on the country. a strike on a crowded market killed at least 7 people in the town of, of deacons in the eastern. don't ask region. the governor, they are saying none of the targets had any military purpose. the kremlin says that these latest air strikes are retaliation for an explosion last week in on the only bridge connecting russia with occupied crimea. today, moscow said that it has detained 8 suspects, connected to what it is calling

a ukrainian backed terrorist attack. the security service says these people include 5 russians, 3 you, cranium and 3 armenian citizens. he has not claim responsibility for the blast and has called moscow's investigation. nonsense. well, there are a lot of moving parts to this conflict tonight. that's why we're happy to welcome j mclinn to the show. she is a senior researcher at the monterrey initiative in russian studies. she joins me tonight from oxford in the u. k. j is going to have you on the program of the u. s . in nato. are pushing this message that vladimir putin is running out of options and that he's running out of time is he thank you for having me. in finance time. no, i don't think he is for any time, and i don't think that's really something that will depend on on nature of the u. s

. i think he is slightly, i think was probably more the place that he's running out of options. and i think that's a much more difficult one because he hasn't really left him so much space to turn around to back out, especially since he did kind of partial mobilization. so i think he has time and if he has options, when you talk about options, i mean, what would those options be right now? right now there's the obvious option of flow, no obvious. and the other horrific option, the everybody's discussing, which is the nuclear auction, which i think is very, very unlikely. but of course, must mean on everybody's laid off with self explanatory reasons on the other options appear to would of course be that he somehow back down or turns around or start putting out feelers to negotiations. however, i think his break reality is such that it's very difficult, it's very difficult for him to come up with anything that would be acceptable and

there's no way that he's prepared the russian people, if anything, the propaganda. and this was loud figures in russia comparing. i'm trying to slip up several hysteria among the russian populations. say it's, it's very difficult. i think there's a tendency sometimes in the west to think that ok patients this dictate and he says, oh, this is how i would not have b. and that's not the case. a to let me ask you about the situation for the ukrainian military air defense systems from the u. s. and now from germany are now in ukraine. last night there was a ukrainian lawmaker here on this program and she told me that these deliveries are too little too late. she still wants no fly zones over ukraine, which we know that the u. s. president has said is not going to happen. is she right though, that the air defense weapons are not enough?

i think sadly, maneesha that the attacks on here and on other cities. i think they showed that clearly k needs a defense. my understanding is that there are certain technologies that could be used for i know that people talk about the fact the, israel's, i'm doing technology wouldn't be appropriate. but i think there are other forms of air defense technology. the, the, i knew israel has that would be, that would be useful. but of course that's, that's really a bilateral issue, rather than, rather than a m. s, nato allies and ukraine discussion. but i know there is plenty that could still be sent and, and personally i hope it is because i completely understand that a new fly thing bluntly is something possible because it would involve native plains shooting down question claims. and that is just to escalate to i do think that there are other ways that we could help help ukraine to protect you

guys and we should do sure everything. sure. that's something that that could very recently spoken. and there is, of course, a lot of hope that this war will have an end sooner rather than later. and we just heard yesterday that report may be open to a one on one meeting with president biden at the g 20 summit next month. now, this news coming from the russian foreign minister and not from the us from the west. is this, do you think an attempt to create that offering up for vladimir putin? and if it is, i mean it would be coming from the russians. what that end. instead of coming from the evil west, as they have said, we've seen some interesting, we've seen some interesting sort of outreach, haven't we really, from the credit and recently, including the, the long tweets very much commented on and,

and now this sort of signaling of an openness to, to meeting, i would note that bitin has shut down by choice of words that bite in history has refused to opportunity unless it were to discuss us prisoners somehow hardly held in, in russia in terms of an offer. and i think clearly the war is not going well for russia, but the thought, the thing said the treating is insisting on, you know, the recognition that these foreign territories plus crimea belong to say a separate issue doesn't necessarily hunt regions. plus crimea all belonged to russia. and that ukraine will take on some sort of neutral status. they really just started and i think we have to really be careful here as well as, as to western countries to remember that ukrainians have agency in this too and ready ukrainians. right now. i know i'm not going to go sheeting,

i think every single sheet that you mentioned, the test we'll see you on mosque. he is denying your report that he spoke directly with the report recently about the war in ukraine and about a proposed piece player is denying that because the political scientist in bremar who has often been a gift here on this program, ian has said that musk told him that he had spoken recently with and this has created a twitter storm when to show you this thread for me and bremer earlier today from the ranger group. he tweeted this. eli musk told me that he had spoken with boot and, and the kremlin directly about ukraine. he also told me that the crib linz red lines are what they are, these red lines for the crib. and he then tweeted again. i have been writing my weekly newsletter on geopolitics for 24 years. i write honestly without fear or favor in this week's update was no different followed by i've long admired mosque as a unique and world changing entrepreneur, which i've said publicly, he's not

a geo politics. expert and then you had ellen musk himself weighing in, tweeting simply, nobody should trust bremar. now we brought this up because in a tweet just last week must laid out a ukraine. rush a piece plan that has the exact same terms as the one that bremar says. musk told him that he got from vladimir putin and this is the world's richest man. he admits that he has spoken with vladimir putin. he speaks with the u. s. president biden, is there a musk factor in this conflict and should the ukrainians be worried about i think the rain in shed take ne, today given the importance of style inc. ready to which comes from food show piece is something that can chose and names and the poses styling to keeping the ukrainian army sort of connected and networked with in, in, in the fight against russia. so i think he's having this. i mean,

this is the story cuz of course his internet access via satellites also which must go. right? yes, exactly, exactly. so it's been very important. i just think it really cannot be overstated. interestingly, actually just before i came on, i noticed that you know musket tweeted to say how he was very happy to provide the support. i think her vis a ukrainian i didn't quite need to see the ukrainian official was thanking musk for the importance of styling to their success. and musk said he's very happy to play his partner successfully. i don't know if if this twitter storm has chastened him, he doesn't seem like the sort of individual this is lee jason. um, but in any case, i mean to come back to the debate. of course it's a little bit. he says, he says, yes, it's very difficult. on another level, i mean, mr. graham, i knew this isn't some sort of random stock that he's running. you know,

he speaks to very serious people and i do find it quite hard to imagine. he would just make up the conversation. yeah, we do have full disclosure. we asked the berber to come on the program tonight. he agreed, he said, i can't do it tonight, but he says, i will come on the program and talk with you about this, which we believe because as i said, he's been on many times before. let me ask you before we were another time, there was a un general assembly booked this evening about russia's recent annexations of territory. eastern ukraine, overwhelming condemnation of russia in that vote is russia going to care is going to change anything on the ground? no, i don't think it will, and i think it's another fact to the point to you on the difficulties really that we have the un when you have a member of the un security council like crushes in committing atrocities that it is committing it's,

it's very difficult to see the current set of if the u. n. s. is anything that a highly dysfunctional jade mclean from the monterey initiatives in russian studies . we appreciate your time and your insights tonight awhile the ground to cover and we did that. thank you. thank t. oh, we all see interest rates rise and globally. well, i think globally, in the face of the tins of pulling more new grade on what we're making sure is that we protect our economy and we will see higher garage, lower inflation, lost in denial. no wonder investors have no confidence in how government who voted for this whole bunch it for this is no

point when will she still dr. responsibility do the right thing reverse her kamikaze budget, which is causing so much pain. mr. speaker, i think the last thing we need is a general electra that was a bridge from missile is just they're coming under fire in the house of commons. the 1st time that she's faithful makers is it's her text, cutting many budget cost turmoil on the market. and sent the british pound one to talk about this android here at the table now by our very own been pursuing from the w business. so what 1st of all, what's going on in the u. k. and why does it matter beyond the u. k, you may remember that you caitlin, you and i think we're seeing some knock on effects from that on many various, many different levels. first of all, britain's drop behind it the or is the world 6th largest economy. it is still a huge economy and still mean so much the world and especially the financial world . it's number one, as far as finance goes according to

a study by its own financial district. but that does say it's being hammered by new york and singapore as far as accessing talent goes. and the study also admitted that the policy makers, their lives trusts, and quoting a really going to have to convince businesses around the world that it is still in that top position. otherwise, it's not going to get that talent. it's going to start falling behind in many different sectors, not just the financial sector. the damage is being done though, by least trusting quality for tang. as far as this budget goes, as far as these new policies go, that they're introducing not only has the u. k left you. it's also the freedom of movement no longer exists as, as, which is a exactly. and also as far as it's you, tighter immigration laws go, that sends out the wrong message to businesses around the world. many analysts to

saying this is looking more like an emerging economy. this turmoil is not limited to just the u. k. the i m f. this week. sound of the alarm for europe as well. i want you to listen to what the head of the i am, the chief economist said about that as well as what these economy ministry, st tankless, 2023 slow down will be broad based with countries accounting for a 3rd of the global economy. expected the contract this year, or next, the 3 largest economies, the united states, china, and the your area will continue to stall. in short, the worst is yet to come. and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession. seemed to answer tightly. these are serious times and the figures of the autumn projection prove exactly that us. we refer we are currently experiencing a serious energy crisis. i triggered by putins war of aggression on ukraine from sun and then the discontinuation of gas supplies from russia. plant no high once

again, i guess because, and this is sometimes forgotten, even in the bonus tag, right? because pu, tim will no longer deliver this serious energy crisis threatens to become an economic and social crisis all through the crisis. crisis crisis, the chief economist, i m f saying the worst is yet to come. are for europe, was 2nd to look like. for europe, germany is the, the biggest economy here. it's already seeing inflation of around 10 percent. the global average good rate rise to 9 and a half percent later this year. not full back to around 4 percent until 2024. so it sounds like this is going to go on for a long time. it's not going to be just a flash of the pan. how much worse it's going to get will depend upon the war in ukraine. it could be an escalation at any time, and i could send a spatter into the works yet again. it's going to be more painful responses from

central bank. so interest rates are going to keep going up. the question is, how far they going to go up and how high they can go? i asked an official at the i m f. what about mortgage holders? you know, what about all these people have just taken out lloyd's? he said that the banks a well funded right now, well capitalized and that governments are going to have to step in to help the poor . we've seen this time. and again, during the pandemic that the banks are the ones that have been bailed out. it's the people who are being built out, which is actually a good develop. yeah, it's true, it's true. you have to wonder how far the government's going to go, because they just finished building out a lot of people with the pandemic and them. and what about the united states media and i were talking yesterday about what j. p. morgan see? jamie diamond said to me, he is worried about what he sees coming for the world's largest economy. well, he says the world's largest economy is holding up now, but it's facing very strong head winds. so again, you've got the same problems rising rates, the fed tightening, searching inflation,

and the war in ukraine. it's affecting economies around the world. and we've known that for some time, according to the fed minutes interest rates are going to be to a certain point to a more hurtful, more restrictive point, but will be maintained at that level for some time. so again, we're going to have to be in this for the long whole the tricky part there, the i'm f says is not going to aggressive. so there's a strong labor market at the moment. we heard that last friday. and if the fact goes too far and raise is too high and to quickly into aggressively then that could destroy everything. but at the moment it looks like it can do that. it can start raising, continue to raise rates. so it's a balancing act like it is. i said it's, it's a difficult decision right at this moment. but it risks recession and according to the i'm, if we're all heading for recession anyway. yeah, 2023 looks like is going to be the year of recession. and that may also depend on

how long the war last in ukraine, and hopefully there's an economic pressure. would you say that the economic pressure around the world maybe is going to put pressure on ukraine and russia in the? well, that's the hard part. because if the u. s. is suddenly going to dip into recession, where is all that funding going to come from it sending a huge amount of money over to ukraine, a huge amount of money in the full of weapons as well. how much longer will that go on for that's going to be the deciding factor because it was really to be business is always been. thank you. thank you. great. ah, ruby are among the most sought after gemstones in the world, but few people know that most of them come from northern mozambique cobble delgado province has huge reserves of gas and golden. it's also home to the world's biggest ruby mine, went to press, the region is plagued by poverty and violence. and as d w is andrea increased reports,

little of the mineral wealth reaches ordinary people in mozambique the ruby minus on heightened alert the text by insurgents are getting closer and the violence is only one of the problems facing the security team. little what is often good this because these are just going from every day up to 200 people illegally enter the open cast mine hoping to share in the regents mineral wealth using simple tools, they dig tunnels up to 15 meters deep. the mine uses drone pilots to track the legal mining. coordinating with the security team, lovers granted over from if you keep going. okay here to stop your career. this time only one of the men is courts. he'll go straight to jail and could face a sentence of up to 5 years. i one, please. i have a 4 year old daughter and

a y n with you feel sorry for these guys because if you look at the, if you look at the area they move in. i mean, yes. these are mine. yeah. yes, we can only accommodate so many people in terms of employment. you can't give employment to everyone just in this office and it is of our mind. we're looking at about i d 1000 displaced. people are from want to be as of june and july. what a, what do that people do for an income they, they get involved in this, in a village, in the middle of the minor concession. we meet a group of young men at his annual minus. they say they have no other options. none of them got a job at the mine. this is my who are suffering hair made. i can, there's no work. i have no choice but to search for rubies. ah, mark on them and it's not lucrative either. i just came back from digging 10 shafts and i found nothing going on by you know,

but still they hunt us down and arrest us at the mercy even if we don't have anything for them. the company shows off it's social projects, farms, mobile health clinics and schools. but above all it's pace. plenty of texas says mine manager claudius longo nima upwards of 25 percent of our gross revenues and have been to the good paid to the government in terms ofa, production taxes and re otis and term that that's a significant amount of money. but how much of that reaches the people here? a government representative in the region shows as the list of projects and asks for patients in samples advertisement. the way in the past this district wasn't like it is to day. we didn't have the health facilities that we have now in the villages around the mine, there are classrooms for the school children that is growth happening. but i don't believe any one expects us to become rich overnight with all these resources ada, keep on board this evolution normal domain to produce again was really good. but

there isn't much time left for the regions poorest to get some benefit from the gemstone wealth. in as little as 10 years, the ruby reserves here could be exhausted. poverty and the leg of prospects up lane to see some who don't try to get their hands on. rubies rely on catching rodents, 2 feet, their families. the day's almost done, the conversation continues online. you'll find us on twitter either a d w news or you can follow me on twitter at brent golf tv. every member whatever happens between now and then tomorrow is another day. we will see you here again tomorrow.

ah with searching for solutions the energy crisis can gas rescue euro much energy can heat actually save in kind at

home and generally cuts transportation costs? don't you bad news banking on a ton of missed the train. made in germany on d. w. entered the conflict zone, the war in ukraine has raised political attentions throughout europe, but relatively between cost and in brussels. officials of both sides to cool their rhetoric and worn cost of over without an agreement to normalize relations with belgrade for time, for joining the you is running out my guess this week from christina, this album caught the prime minister a conflict zone in 60 minutes on d, w. oh, hello guys. this is the 77 percent the platform for

africa. you beat issues and share ideas you know, or this channel. we are not afraid to happen. delicate because population is growing . and young people clearly have the solution. the future belongs to the 77 percent every weekend on d. w with with the modern world needs energy, lots of it that need.