citizens but what happens when the power of taxation is undermined? a tax on top of the tax on top of the tax. that's the straw that broke the camel's . got it. i've been running forever thinking to myself here, when's it all going to come crashing down? take on stuff you pay won't pay. taxation and politics starts october 21st on d. w ah, ah, winter is approaching in europe and vladimir pigeons. russia is doing what it can to make it an exceptionally difficult one in ukraine. russian forces have been striking civilian infrastructure, including water supplies, power stations, and residential buildings, sometimes using so called a kamikaze drugs. but the west is showing it's metal,

with plans to train some $15000.00 ukrainian soldiers and nato running nuclear drills amid the tensions. today on to the point we asked as the war in ukraine escalates, will nato soon be party to the conflict with hello and welcome. i'm claire richardson in berlin. it's a great privilege to be hosting this edition of to the point with a fantastic panel for you this week. very pleased to welcome marina hanker a security expert and professor of international relations at the hearty school in berlin. caroline, over gore of board, member of the polish weekly kaltura liberal up and more. it's got my chief reporter for the german political magazine, cicero, he joins us after having just returned from ukraine. thank you all so much

for being here. marina. i'd actually like to start with you president vladimir lensky has said, now that a full 30 percent of ukrainian power plants have come under russian strikes. it's already leading to blackouts across the country. do you think that the timing is intentional, with temperature dropping? any cold winter setting in? absolutely. it's intentional that it's also a result of what's happening in the dumbass and in the course on region and it them ukrainians are advancing. ah, so there are 2 wars that are ongoing. there's the land war and that's in her son, and that's in the don pass. and then there's now this air war and actually the ukrainians, you know, are doing quite well in the land war. and one of the responses to the success to the ukrainian success is now the strikes on western ukraine and, you know, targeting civilians and trying to break the fighting will of the ukrainian people and her carolina. is that also your impression? what do you make of these attacks on civilian infrastructure?

one should not be surprised, i believe because the strategy of what you're putting has been the same throughout all those months and actually throat all the, the past 8 years. so he's busy on a task. his aim, his goal is to create a soviet union again, is to create the russian empire again. and so he has to go, it's a process that started with china and, and he went to georgia and of course he went to ukraine. so if he cannot do worth urge, but just by saying i would like to have this land and if the ukrainians didn't say okay, we just surrender in 3 days. then he will destroy everything completely. this is now his, his means to achieve his goal. do you see this is the later step in a putin's plan are more it's i want to come to you. how likely do you think it is that these attacks on civilian infrastructure are possible war crimes? the united nations has said strikes on civilian objects like power plants could qualify. well, i would say so on the one hand with to that sir,

like a hitting power plans and so on. it's clear attacks against the civilian infrastructure. it's part of putting plan to break the will of her ukrainians. her. on the other hand, it's positive aspect to like a small positive aspect that this meant that not her many civilians were killed during this. a huge, huge strikes were 45 or rockets hitting ukraine all over the country. there were only 20 casualties or so but of course, in the end it's and that attack on the civilian infrastructure. and marina, what do we know about russia's supply of artillery and weapons? how long do you think they can keep up these kinds of attacks? so they're using now drones from iran made to m, and it was widely interpreted as in move. and because they're actually lacking the

missiles that they have been using, and so they're called kamikaze drone, they have explosive noted on them. one of them is just about 20000 m u. s. dollars or so to a certain degree is much cheaper to use them and destroy the infrastructure and target those civilian centers than using the rockets. so that's indication that maybe they're, you know, and running low on, on missiles. but overall, i think, you know, we should still count on the fact that, you know, like their depots, the lot of ammunition that they have from the old soviet days to, it's done, you know, weapons as they're called or, but they're, they're still there. i would, i would add that in some ways also sign up for desperation of put him, are these, these huge air raids, these rocket attacks. so he tries to break the will of the ukrainians, because on the, in the land war, or russia is losing. for the last $6.00 to $8.00 weeks, sir, russia is losing every day, or several,

a square kilometers of land that it perceives already russian territory. even the muslim flight, a logical element there as well. and really you mentioned these kamikaze drones. i want to see if we can actually take a closer look at this new development in the war allies. she's in, she police officers use rifles to try and shoot down the so called kamikaze drone from the sky. ukrainian air defenses are usually powerless against large scale attacks. just like at the beginning of the war, people are wanting for their lives. the attacks or targeting people, but also a vital infrastructure. she hed 136 is a so called kamikaze join from a ram, but it carries up to 40 kilograms of explosives. although around deny selling it to russia. keith says that fragments of this drone shock down in southern ukraine had

both iranian and russian markings. this particular, iranian drone model costs around 20000 years each a pittance compared to russian missiles. iranian kamikaze drones, a game changer for putin's faltering war of aggression. let's dive into that marine. i'd like to put that question to you. are they a game changer? i don't think so that i actually think you can't break the fighting bill of ukrainians, but what possibly can be broken? is the support of western countries because of the big picture of things. this is what ukrainian military prowess depends on. and here, you know, a lot of things are happening and we have congressional actions in the united states. and you have voices on the republican side. questioning the support the united states has provided to ukraine, especially from california. this is their congressman mccarthy, but also here in germany in europe, energy prices are rising and inflation is very high. and so i think, you know,

put in as counting on the fact that maybe over the next 345 months, that you will have a growing opposition in nato countries. and then maybe also with a new republic, republican majority in congress. and that will then, you know, like possibly be a game changer for ukraine, catalina, what do you think of that? the will of the west of nate countries are to continue to support ukraine throughout this war. do you think it will last through the winter though? the will starts to be the central notion of this war, right. who has the will? well, i do believe that it's true that you cannot break the willy of ukrainians because they as a post traumatic society, they are extremely resilient. this is very difficult for post traumatic societies, but at the same time, you can destroy them completely. you can destroy completely that, that the country and this is what put in is, is aiming at and as for the will of the west. well, i don't think there is only one will of the west. i do think that there is actually a conflict or a very serious dispute within the west about what is going to happen. and i think

you have been very well pointing at this. there is at least a vast group of people or intellectuals, politicians, sir, and other actors who would like this and this war to end as quickly as possible. because they would like to have the business with huge, as usual, with russia. and they would like to go back to the economy as from the, for the war. but there is also this vast group of people i, i hope that this will prevail. but who knows? that believes that still believes that this war is not about ukraine. it's about the, the, the west and they're the rules that liberal democracy, the, the right to the side of a nation or, or when she direct direction and is going to. so we have a lot of her wars here and why they do want to come back to you. you mentioned this psychological question at the kamikaze, drones that we just learned about. there are one advantage that we know they have is that they can strike from long distance as are given ukrainians. the feeling that there's no where safe any more in the country do you think that that is what

rushes aim is with these weapons? oh, that's true, basically in practical terms of these chemicals are drones or they can't destroy that much. you know, they are not as effective as the, the big rockets, russia was shooting at ukraine over the last month. but are psychologically, of course, they are a danger for the ukrainians because they all have seen this or the last few weeks. they feel drones over their heads and they know that somewhere they will fall down m. so yes, though, the psychological effect is the main one her but it actually this only means that you cream needs more, are protection systems are air, air defense systems here. now, here's the thing, they slow, they're actually quite slow. now they're called then the mach bed of the air. and

so if you have them air defense systems, and then you know, you can shoot them down fairly easily as well. it's not an iskander rocket, which are, it's incredibly fast and incredibly powerful. this is like in, like this is the, they're the really the good stuff in our that, that russia also and has, it's important that we, that we think about this war as, as if it was the cove it right. we, you can think that you have built with a pandemic, but then it picks another face. and this is exactly what is happening with this war . so once we think, ok, perhaps russia is running old of weapons than they used those. and of course, they might be not as good as the former ones, but they are so effective in killing civilians and, and destroying streets and, and building. so i think it's a, it's a protean, the war from the, the name of the greek, of the greek figure, from the myth us that always changed the shape, always change that the face. and one thing i want to mention about this more is that despite the tensions are nieto has also held its annual nuclear drills. thing

dozens of aircraft running training flight over belgium, the north sea, and britain. and let's see if we can take a listen to what nato secretary general against oldenburg had to say on the possible use of nuclear weapons. in this conflict, circumstances in which her need to might have to use nuclear weapons or extremely remote russia. snoozer rhetoric is dangerous reckless. aah! de know that if they use nuclear weapon against her ukraine, it will have severe consequences. and it also know that a nuclear war come up through almost no before so nato was insisting that these drills are routine that they happen every year and are not a direct response to tensions with russia. but marina, i want to come over to you and ask, don't you think that, practicing using us nuclear weapons in europe is a provocation in this climate. so it forms part and parcel of the logic of the

turns of nuclear deterrence. when you look back in history, every single time the soviet union, and by the way, the same goes also for other nuclear powers have used or threaten em with their nuclear weapons used in, in kind of fair and exercise scenario. at the opposing party has done the same because the idea of the turns is not, oh, you know, like they're threatening usage than b, engage in dialogue. no. the logic of deterrence is that signaling to them. if you use them on our territory, then you will also get destroyed. and so, you know, i to has been lot of criticism on the needle side that of response was lacking to all those threats from the russians using tactical nuclear weapons. and i think this has been ramping up now from, you know, the united states and from natal 1st, that biden. and does national security advisor have come out and said, and if you use them, you know, you will have devastating consequences. and then, you know, nato was also now practicing and this nuclear at strikes. but i think still it's

very important to underline that this is not a novelty. there have been these tactical nuclear weapons station on european soil since the fifty's, these exercises are very regular and is just part and parcel of what nato does. nieto is a nuclear alliance. and more it's, do you think the west response to these threats of using nuclear weapons? has the response been adequate? i would say say so basically it sir. an answer to russia's threats and the president zalinski of ukraine. he was really pushing for this kind of answer because the ukraine itself, or if there will be a nuclear or hit the nuclear strike. and then ukraine will be the victim saw zalinski was telling the west that please make clear to russia with her clear actions that they shouldn't do this is because afterwards it will be harder or

you need these are signals like her this maneuver. you need these signals beforehand before it's happened. okay, so the maneuvers are an important part of that i currently now do you think that bruton would risk a nuclear war with nato? i know that in your home country, poland also obviously in the baltic states there does seem to be a sense that there is a real fear of exactly that happening in poland and in the baltic states. basically people dont have as big fear on of the nuclear conflict as for example here injured in germany, that's very interesting. i wouldn't like to be a misunderstood here. it's not that we are so naive and think that our nuclear weapons are not are horrible. are they are horrible, they destroy everything. but the experience of their states eastern to germany is basically that we have experienced a cyclical destruction coming from the russian empire for the past 300 years. which

makes us think, okay, nuclear weapons are horrible. but at the same time, they are one only one of the ways you can totally destruct a country. so this is the oratory, destroyed the country. so this is very important, i think. and if you ask me whether i think a foot in is going to go into, into nuclear war or, well, i would say yes and no. the possibility, the probability that he will use the nuclear weapons, i think is quite high. but i don't mean that he is going to strike very hard on the city, for example, it won't be another hiroshima, it might happen on the see. it might happen very high in the air so that the systems go down so that he shows that he's strengthen his ability and then it all makes than they toes answer quite unclear. it makes it more difficult. so i don't think, you know,

using the same language like our terminal bill or hiroshima or nuclear war. i don't think this really explains the nuanced character of what might happen. ok, so that's not a helpful way of describing it. a marina. what's the view here in germany towards the possible use of nuclear weapons? so i'm a professor i, i do a lot of research on this question it interestingly, i ran a survey and the 1000 germans answered and dare. so 1st and foremost, they're actually also get angry or not that scared. i was myself surprised by those results are bad, more people in the room and get angry by such a scenario than actually scared in the sense they get angry at vladimir putin for engaging in this. exactly. and then, you know, like they're, the largest number of respondents is in favor of a conventional strike are to respond to such a tactical nuclear weapon strike. so i think this idea that putting has that he can intimidate and paralyzed nato. and especially germany, i totally concur with colina air is wrong as or improperly, you know, i,

there will be much more kind of an angry movement. and that, that says like, now we really cannot trust this guy. and we have to, you know, support ukraine even even more and more if you think that, that public opinion that marina's talking about is also shared by politicians in germany. that if we were to see a nuclear strike that the correct response would be one using conventional warfare from the west. well, as you have pointed out to her, there may be a tactical nuclear strike that is not so clear to, to judge, you know, in the air or on the sea. so they, if something like this happens, there will be a discussion on what was this is, should we answer full scale on this or not? because there are not so many victims may be, it was only technical damage may be. so you think there will be a discussion or it won't be an, it won't be an immediate response fun. i think there will be

a discussion because in the end this, in the end, ukraine, today is not a nato member state. so if putting a tech, the nato member say, the answer would be clear and immediate, but of course in the case of you cream, there is maneuver for discussion. all right, well meanwhile, the european union is currently planning a mission to train some 15000 ukrainian soldiers in its members state. we've mentioned that before. the word and e u circles is that the german bonus fair will take on up to 5000 of them. the british forces have already been training ukrainian soldiers since this summer. let's see if we can take a closer look. a battle for every house, but there is no gun fire here yet. ukrainian soldiers are practicing house to help combat under the most realistic conditions possible at a training facility in the united kingdom. this provides the soldiers with an opportunity to practice and perfect techniques that have long been part of

ukrainian warfare. training programs like this will soon be rolled out in the u as well. how you foreign ministers at a meeting and luxembourg are discussing plans that include training programs for some 15000 ukrainian soldiers. and several you countries have already honored national agreements to train ukrainian soldiers germany. the most recent commitment has been in the areas of air defense and artillery. the use mission is scheduled to run for 2 years initially, for example, to train snipers and develop their skills in areas like 1st aid and mind clearance . but how sustainable is it to train ukrainian soldiers without delivering more sorely needed metre weapons? at is the question, well, as we've heard

a nato and the you are supporting ukrainian ukraine with financial support. modern weapons now also training soldiers on a large scale. caroline, i do not think that that therefore defacto makes the west a combatant in this conflict. west has been the combatant of this war from the very beginning from they won over this war because there is no one war there to war said please, 11 war is the, the war with weapons in ukraine. and the other is about the, the european values and liberal democracy and the right to decide about your country. so as for the 2nd war, we were on this war from the very beginning. as for the 1st war, the, the military war. i think we, the escalation is unpreventable, we are stepping into the war and you cannot prevent it. it is escalating. that is a harrowing prediction markets as it one that you share. well, it's a actually depends. so on put him in what will happen further because of course,

this mobilization that we saw over the last 2 months. it points out that putting wants to continue this war. he's not ready to negotiate at the moment. but this may change as we see the situation on the front line where the ukrainians are pushing the russians out of their territories. so we're, yeah, basically depends on how putting will act in the upcoming month into the question of whether nato is a party to this conflict already. what do you think are the west or the nato, is the fact or, or part of this conflict already, or do you order, or it's not because we don't have any nato troop fighting in ukraine. any nato troops fighting against russia. and i think, yeah, this, this is an important aspect. this is also important for our public discussion.

that's why his german chancellor sholtes will always say that we are not a part of this war, but the fact are, we are a no marina. i wanna ask you about the implications of russia has in the territories that it's claimed that has annexed in the her son region. it has imposed marshall. why do you think that this adds a piece to the puzzle that will turn the direction of the war in one direction or another? no, it just stare shows that term. you know, russia is trying to play all the means possible, right? so like in these territories, russia can basically do whatever it wants, all the laws that have been prevailing there are basically suspended. it can be curve you with the can be incarceration with any need to justify it. and, and, you know, i think to this question of, you know, whether we already at war m. yes. and because we need to also ask, what are we fighting for and what is this war all about? and i think curly and both more it's mentioned quite nicely. this is not just

a war over ukrainian territory. this is a war about democracy. this is a war about our liberal value system. this is the war about our liberal world order . and i'm willing to defend it, and i think we need to defend as this is in the end, what the fight is about. and i think, you know, we shouldn't be ashamed saying we are part of that war because be benefit from democracy and from the labor values some every single day here in germany. and so i think, you know, and we need to, you know, pick up the slack and save your fully supporting, also ukraine because they are fighting it for real. and by the way, we are also benefiting from the fact that it's not possible to change borders. especially europe where we know from our history that wars basically also always began because of this because one state wants to have chunks of for another state. and that's where the wars begin. i think it's quite product sickle and ironic that the only citizens of europe that are capable of giving their lives to the european union are actually ukrainians. yeah, that's interesting. marina,

you mentioned that you are willing to defend that. you think there's consensus in western states that they are also willing to make the sacrifice is needed to see this through to the end in supporting ukraine. it's very interesting. polls have come out by you. gov and actually across all needle states there is still majority supporting it, but there are 3 exceptions that italy, that's greece and that's hungry are only in the 3 countries and of the, of needle outside of the needle context. different questions that we have. india, indonesia, lot of other countries been very skeptical of what, what nato does and with united states does in ukraine. but, you know, i think that is still the support. all right. i think we're going to leave it there that all the time that we have a for this episode of to the point. i want to say a very heartfelt thanks for all of our wonderful guests for joining me today. i thank you to our team working behind the scenes and all of you watching from home for your time. if you are watching us on youtube and you have any comments about this show, i would love to hear them. please do share them. villa take care and bye for now.

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