and 300000000 people are seeking yes. because no one should have to flee. make up your mind. w. made for mines. if you're watching g w news, asia coming up a special edition of the program today with form australian prime minister, kevin rud on the agenda, china and why he worries paging and the united states might clash in a hot war. ah, i'm melissa chant, thanks for joining us. today. we have a special edition of d,

w. news, asia. we have a guest, a politician, and an academic. kevin rud was australia's former prime minister and well before that career he was and is very much i sign ologist, a specialist in china with a ph. d. on shooting team. he is also author of the avoidable war, the dangers of catastrophic conflict between the u. s. and shooting pins, china. here's our interview. we're very happy to have in a studio, kevin rad, australia's prime minister from 2007 to 2010, and mr. read the fact that you wrote this book means you think there is enough other concern of a potential conflict wise that we've been studying china itself and us china relations for the last 35 years. and i've been a diplomat in the past. i've been foreign minister prime minister and dealt with china and the u. s. a long. it's the 1st time i become really worried about the

real prospect of armed conflict between these 2, probably over taiwan. and so the purpose of the book is to say, here are some suggestions about how to avoid crisis conflict and war by accident. and here are some thoughts about how to avoid war by intent or later on. ah, i am wonder there's a number of books as is in sure just came out with one on looking at trying to avoid a potential conflict. do you know if there is an equivalent in china of books where they talk about trying to avoid conflict with the united states? and i asked this because i wonder whether there's too much of an onus on the united states or democracy to try to prevent a conflict with china, especially when we see beijing being why more aggressive. the bottom line is seem party, the communist party lays out the line. that's why we study carefully the congress

report of she didn't ping at the 20th party congress. it lays out the line. there's nothing in the line about avoiding crosses, conflict and war. there's everything in the line about the never ability of china's rise inevitability of fear drunk. why means away the off washing the great renaissance of the chinese people? code language for becoming the pre eminent ridgeland global power by mid century. the line is clear that china must prepare for a dangers in times of peace and also prepare for the storm. so that's the script being delivered internally. so therefore, i'm in the rest of the world. obviously is a predisposition to seek to avoid war. or i'm in that camp, i think was generally a pretty bad thing if you go to the mind for history. but i think we're the intersection of the interest between china. the u. s. lie is avoiding war by accident in the near term. and using the terrence to prevent war and in the long

term. so these are the 2 as it was strands of the argument outlined in that book. and are you reassured, based on what you understand, that there are chinese counterparts thinking about this as well? on the question of the affordable war and using exit ramps, or guard rails or rules of the road as i described them in the book to prevent accidental crisis conflict escalation war. yes, there is a constituency within bridging, certainly alive within the think tanks, which service the central leadership. i don't believe that the, the chinese side right now have an interest in going to war as a reason for that. it's because they're, they are concerned they might lose or, or they're concerned that the financial, an economic penalty against china for so doing would be too great. so therefore, the challenge now is to avoid this escalation, crisis conflict and war by accident, for which there is a constituency, i think in both sides of this relationship. but for the long term,

she didn't ping if you look carefully at the 20th party congress report is saying that national identification is inevitable is also said earlier. it has to be achieved in effect by 2049. and one key phrase he uses in the work a report is the oh, the wheels of history, a grinding ford towards the inevitability of free. and if occasion, that's pretty intense language before we del, further into that, i do want to talk about australia, of course, any pets. a conflict between the united states and china would have a big impact on your country. and what is your worry for australia in that instance? well, no large worry, frustrated than germany, for example, or for any middle to large economy in the world. the good to immediate consequences won the united states would have an immediate expectation of its allies to support the united states under such a scenario, which had the chinese taking military action to take china by force. the 2nd is

whether or not countries militarily participate or not in that action do there would be an expectation with united states for all allies and partners of the u. s . world wide, to roll out comprehensive financial and economic sanctions. and i think the 3rd implication is that whatever happens with a or b above, you would plunge the global economy into the deepest of recessions. probably a depression. because these are the world's 2 largest economies. like the combined financial markets at the stage between his 2 countries is 5 trillion dollars. at a 100 trillion dollar global economy. now there's a lot of box. suddenly all that grinds to an immediate hold, trade is stopped. foreign direct investment stops the rest of the world, looks at it, and takes fright for throwing the global economy into something close to a depression. would be the 3rd consequence for all economies. european or asian. and of course,

have seen just how devastating the impact on an i are dealing with russia, which is a much smaller economy. and then china has been on at the world. i want to talk about shifting piano congress. but i want to go back to your time as prime minister, because i think it really tells us how much things have changed with china. over the past decade. i was foreign correspondent in china when you were prime minister and, and so would say looking back at that time with you, but also with the obama administration, miracles, engagement with china that lead were relatively sanguine. and in hindsight, is that an assessment that you would agree with and, and do you think your views have changed the strategy employed by ourselves at the time? and i know it, cuz i wrote it mom and certainly by the obama administration, because i knew barrack very well and work with him closely on us strategy. and i also work with chancellor merkel. um it was not hon. conditional engagement with china. it was engagement plus hedge, and the engagement was fully um,

working with the chinese on the global as it were, commons global governance maximizing, mutual economic benefit, maximizing mutual economic responsibility, working on common challenges together. and the expectation was that the chinese would move towards our inclusion into the existing rules based system minus democracy. okay, i don't think that was ever a realistic aspiration for anybody. certainly not mine. i think what happened or with the rise of she? jean ping is china's own playbook, changed the the own china of she. g. ping is radically different from the china of who jan tower jones of men and even dung shall ping then take my word for it. read the 20th party congress report. it talks about the shin, should i a new era? and the law, should i the old era, was that 2535 years of guy go ok. fun reform an opening. so this is

a brand new china domestically and a more assertive china internationally has this surprised you was there a moment where you realised that things were not going in the direction now a lot of people anticipated. i think there are 2 things which stand out for may 1 on pure politics. now if you look carefully at she jan ping's leaked speech on ideology and propaganda. in july of 2013, this is and, and i looted her no holds barred. ah, knock them down, knock them down, drag them out, fight with every thing that the west and united states in the democratic world holds to be near and dear in terms of freedom and the international order based on that. and when it was leaked became very plain that she can ping was taken completely different course on the international system. and secondly, the reassertion of boxes, lyndhurst ideology. because the, his conclusion in that speech was that the loss of the centrality of marxist leninism was what actually caused the decline of the communist party,

the soviet union, and the collapse of the soviet union altogether. so that was a big one. and after 2017 and the 19th party congress, there was a shift on economic audiology as well. now, it's almost the cottage industry in foreign affairs world in terms of prognostications with china at the coming collapse of china and so on, so forth. but she is facing headwinds with economy and so on and so forth. so what would be your prognostication with china? well, there is a debate at the moment of we're whether we now looking at peak china. that is a china who's adjustment to the dung shopping economic model of the last 35 years towards a new sheet in ping economic model with greater emphasis on the party. greater emphasis on the stake, greater emphasis on industrial policy and planning and common prosperity that this in fact will so radically slow, china's growth rate that won't be growing at 5 or 6 percent. the twenty's and

thirty's is more likely to be growing at 3 or 4 or $2.00 to $3.00 that makes quantum difference. if you're looking at the cumulative impact of growth rates over time. i think it's too early to tell whether she jim pink can recover the economic model. but the early signs from the 20th party congress report is that the ideological are orientation back towards the party state and ideology that we saw in the 19th party congress that has been if you like, intensified in this congress report. so i'm not foreshadowing any policy you turned back to the market. so therefore, we're going to have a slower growth rate, natural growth rate for china. they may profit up through high levels of state investment that may continue to yield activity through net exports. but for private, fixed capital investment, private consumption, as well as private residential construction. i think we're all heading in a southerly direction. yang and economy is at the end of the day and the most basic

thing and it's something that the party is very, very concerned with. now, with this congress, it doesn't look like it's on the political front, though. we're not seeing any relaxation at all. are we looks like he's doubling down on more attackers, see, and so on and so forth. i think if you look carefully of what the congress report says, it's quite clear that the political and economic line, and frankly, the foreign policy line are being sustained. we do not see a radical change in any of those except that on the economy. it is somewhat more hard line, ideologically, on foreign policy, somewhat more alarmist in terms of china's perception of its deteriorating strategic environment. mr. kevin read, thank you so much for joining us. could be under javala. that's all for the program . be sure to check out our website and social media as well. will leave you with pictures out of beijing over the past week, where leaders have gathered for the chinese communist party congress and to confirm

cheating king for a 3rd term, setting him up to be leader for life. thanks for watching and have a good weekend. ah ah with in school so she should ah, ah, every journey is full of surprises. we've gone all out to give you some tips one day in the footsteps of the great hall. i'm in your northernmost count to please ah,

3 times long. but still very much alive. d, w, travel, you'll go to the central hospital in germany, europe. hello. do you recognize that where exactly it was fun. i learned a lot of our culture history. all their d. w. travel extremely worth a visit. ah, ah. just a small stake in a big operation or is it? germany's chancellor is facing a barrage of criticism for green lighting a deal that was see chinese investment at the hamburg port. many of you asked critical infrastructure. also on the lead, nancy g. d. p growth is out a seen many major economies for the 2nd year in a row. we'll have expert analysis on why and where the germans are going to freeze

this winter is being decided at this construction site will show you how the country's new l and g terminals are to be linked to the national grid cultures. welcome to the program. defined pushback of opposition parties and even 6 ministries headed by members of his own governments. germany, chancellor, all of sholtes wants to press ahead with the sale of a 35 percent stake in a hamburg container terminal to a chinese state owned company. the ministry of economic affairs is running an investment review process as the container port is classified as critical infrastructure. amber's mayor, a social democrat like all of sholtes, has campaigned for the sale to chinese shipping giant cost. well, for more, let's bring in for got dryer. he is the deputy general manager of the association of german chambers of industry and commerce. welcome back to the program for should

this deal go through.