a has no limits. love is for everybody. love is live, love matters. and that's my new podcast. i'm avalanche, i'm mom and i really think we need to talk about all the tell makes the north divide and deny that this. i have invited many deer and well known guests. and i would like to invite you to union as ukraine presses it's counter offensive against russian occupying forces in the south, moscow's doing some nuclear muscle flexing, conducting military exercises, simulating response to a nuclear attack, and accusing care of planning to launch one. russian forces in the southern region

around house sun have been moving, injured people and civilians out of the city. but it's unclear whether the troops themselves are bracing for battle or preparing to flee. meanwhile, moscow claims ki, i was getting ready to detonate. a dirty bomb laced with radioactive material, a chart ukrainian leaders denied saying rushes describing its own intentions. so on to the point where, asking the roost with the dirty boss, a sign of proteins weakness a hello and welcome to to the point. it is a great pleasure to agree to our guests. jessica berlin is a g o strategic expert with the german marshall fund. gustav grasso is senior policy fellow and military expert at the berlin office of the european council on foreign relations. and joining us online from bon is my ukranian colleague,

roman don, should i go, he's working for d w's, russia desk. and roman, i'd like to go to straight away to the situation in the hess saw, because there's mixed signals emanating from that region where russian occupiers have at the same time, been sending dyer messages and about an impending ukrainian attack. and at the same time also appeared to be digging in bracing for battle. so can you give us your assessment of what is going on there? and also why her son is so strategically important? well, let me start with this late and let us to point that you've mentioned hassan is extremely important for both sides. it's important for russia because it is the only point in ukraine which russia managed to well managed. russia managed to cross the you probably are the biggest river in ukraine,

which device the country in 2 halves in east and west. and it is very difficult to cross. it's a natural barrier. and russia managed to cross new, brought in the early days of the invasion. and from, from this, from this place, it is planning to go further west to towards mac alive, which is a neighboring city. and odessa, which is extremely important for the port for ukraine on the black sea. and if russia succeeds, ukraine would lose access to the black sea. so it is extremely important for russia to hold on to be on that right. bank of the new pro river, and it is extremely important just from the opposite side for ukraine to, to get it back. and it is also important because because it's very close to crimea to the annexed crimea, or where russia in is earth, is getting a supplies with fresh water from the new property, which is also from the origin of hassan. so it is,

it is in the focal point of this war for both sides. so i keep going on just just shortly. i think we are, we are at a point where ukraine would like to continue it's offensive, which it started a few weeks ago or a few months ago. the preparations, but it is very slow and russia is on the tipping point, or russia wants to defend car, so not to lose it and is preparing to defend it. but it could be forced to leave it . so just very quickly, if you would, when i did the battle for her son take place, because as you say, the ukrainian forces haven't made real advances in the last few weeks. well, there is a rather small window of opportunity for ukraine here. i think 3 or 4 weeks because the russian mobilization started in late september, we'll need some time to show effect on the battlefield. the moment ukrainians have a chance to start the assault on the caps on. but then bad weather and russia

mobilization could stop ukraine will make it more much more difficult to retake the city. so i'm at the moment we are that a situation which is very volatile, which very dynamic. and it is impossible to predict which side will win in the coming weeks. because of the head of ukraine's own defense intelligence agency has down played expectations that are hopes that her son might soon be liberated, saying that he does not see the russians truly preparing to leave. is that just expectation management? do you think or is it realistic? no, it will be your hard fight. i mean, russia is, there are defensive preparations. you see them thinking lines outside of the city and see them preparing some of the outskirts the buildings to reinforce them, to sustain shelling, and to, to basically turn houses into fortresses. on the other side, there are swapping troops, those now one ah,

pontine bridge that operates across did nipple river. it is used for quotation mark evacuation. it will have civilians crossing that bridge all the time because as long as civilians are crossing ukrainians won't fire at this bridge. this bridge than is also used for military purposes. that is bringing out experienced personnel, especially the paratroopers, because they need them elsewhere. and bringing freshly mobilized, are fresh troops. are these fresh troops are of course weaker, less experience, less off. but of course they have to perform static defense. that's tactically, not very difficult. ah, so russia is post, other way thing, they are cannon fodder. of course, they're all russian, russian mobilized forces are kind of for the russia will hold the city as long as he can afford. with these troops bought on the other hand, they, they put their lead forces elsewhere in order to have, again, an offer for so to contain new training counsel fence if the are expected elsewhere

to, to follow jessica meanwhile, ukrainian, president lensky is saying that his people should prepare for what he called the most difficult winter in their history. that hardly sounds like he's expecting victory anytime soon. on the difficulty of the winter goes far beyond just the battle for have thorn. as we've seen in the past weeks, russian military has been targeting civilian infrastructure as well as military targets destroying power plants heating infrastructure. so right now, 30 percent of the countries without power and the rest of the country is experiencing planned rolling blackouts to protect the grid. and conserve power, and right now it's october. it's getting cold, but the worst, the coldest is still, of course, yet to come. so this will be an incredibly difficult winter, both on the battlefield, but also on the homefront. and we have an example of the concerns about the

sensitivity of infrastructure. let us take a closer look now at the situation in the region around half on which russia occupied, in the early days of the war, and illegally annexed at the end of september. and as we heard just now, half on is a strategic prize for whomever controls it. ah, the ukrainian counter offensive in the south is apparently putting the russian occupy as under increasing pressure images from a russian state, broadcaster, administrators loyal to moscow are transporting people from the city of cow. so across the ne, per river, they call it evacuation in anticipation of ukrainian attacks keefe speaks of forced resettlement. cason is strategically important. if it becomes ukranian again, russia would not be able to advance further west as planned. ukraine and turn would advance toward crimea. russian troops, west of the ne pro, have been in

a difficult position for some time as the ukranian army has destroyed important supply routes. now the massive kafka damn is at risk of becoming a weapon of war. since march, the facility has been in the hands of the russians. ukraine accuses them of mining the reservoir and wardens that if it were blown up, it would cause a deadly flash blood for hundreds of thousands of people. the russians site claims that it is ukraine, that wants to blow up the dam itself. how we, his putin's army and castle. and let me put that question straight to a roman. we heard a gustavo towing us just now than in fact, russia has been removing some of its most experienced officers and troops and replacing them with these newly recruited, inexperienced young men. oh, what do you think? how long could such forces defend occupied hassan?

well, it is difficult to assess because we don't not know the whole picture. how many am are mobilized? how many are experienced of the russian troops there? from what i hear on russian said media. and there is this feeling that we will not give up. we will not pull back, we will defend her sound because it is so much so important for russia or when you think of russian history. just to remind you, it is the sooty, which are where the russian lexi fleet was built. the 1st ships were built there, so it was important in the 18th, 19th century for russia. so you hear such tones, some people even compare cassandra, so i stop all, we were the base of the russian. lexi fleet is now. so when you hear this, it is hardly imaginable that russia is preparing to withdraw from the city. so i think they'll just trying to wind some time, some weeks when they have more forces and run the weather with the winter coming.

it will make it more difficult for ukraine to move forward. jessica, let me come to these claims swirling around the health care dam, which is at a keel. hydro electric plaid you mentioned infrastructure earlier, are near her son. president zelinski said that his government has information that the russians have mind. the structure and russia meanwhile, is accusing ukraine of planning to attack the down. so are these just verbal tactics designed to throw the other side off balance or do you think this discussion signals? a major escalation in the office was a bit of both. of course, it's part of the information war, but it undermines the, it shows the undermining of the russian military tactically, if russia is needing to destroy infrastructure, if they're threatening to, if they're putting out rumors of dirty bombs, or threatening the dam,

which of course would not only destroy a major power source, but would also flood an area where hundreds of 1000 people live. this would be a catastrophic attack if this infrastructure were destroyed. they're showing that technically on the battlefield there weekend and therefore needing to use these kinds of threats to try to get western support to back off. this is really what's, what's going on at play. so it is a credible threat. it is something we have to take seriously, but it's also something that's being used to shape the narrative of fear and deterrence in this war. because of staying with the strategic and tactical side here, destroying the dam would create major flooding as we heard in the report. and as jessica has pointed out, it would also destroy an important power plant. put it utterly out of commission, who would have any real strategic advantage from that?

given the fact that the russians are the occupiers don't, they also need this damn and this power plant to remain in operation. the russians don't really need the power plant, but they need the dam for the water for crimea that the channel that supplies crimea is, is billed from that reservoir. as long as water levels are high enough, you can tap water and pump it, or let it flow don't downwards to, to crimea. ah, so they will not destroy it unless they feel they have to. of course, if they completely lose the battle of so on, if there's things are beyond repair for the russian, me, their minds exploded just to, to draw in the look of ukrainian soldiers. and to tron ukraine in the sold forces and creep with heavy equipment, which for ukraine is, dear replaceable tanks are your replaceable because that gets none from the west, or infantry fighting weakness are replaceable sol, so there is

a military purpose. they would also drown some of their own defenders, but if you know if the situation is lost, i don't mind for that. the concern arising due to the war of words over the dam pales in comparison to unease over russia's nuclear muscle, flexing russian defense minister sag. shall i go recently called his counterparts in the us, france and turkey to voice his alarm about what he called possible provocations by key of involving we just heard it mentioned the use of a dirty bomb. that is a bomb laced with radio, active substances. that key of would then seek to blame on russia. assist in for a more circle. we have concrete information about those institutions and ukraine, or super their scientific institution, the less capable of creating this barrier dirty lama. we're because rubel most the information we have verified through the appropriate channels. so is that this is

nasir groundless accusation, or new push through, but those are the fisheries here too. if russia calls and says that ukraine is allegedly preparing something, it means one things that russia has already prepares, all those other simple women. i believe that the world should react as harshly as possible. now, allah to the law. if russia continues to up the anti bully and prepare for the next level of escalation, it must recognize that the world will not allow it broader. michael bite the sheep sir, near brooklyn, casa, before we start talking about, oh, what about what this means? just tell us, please, what exactly is a dirty bomb and what kind of harm could it cause? a dirty bomb is a conventional bomb. basically explosives, under the splinter filler, is not mattel, to cause physical damage. it's made up composed of radioactive material that will then spread in the immediate environment where the pump is designated. ah, it's

a usually, it is intended as a terrorist weapon, it has no military value. it has no destructive potentially tass and no impact on military operations. i thought it would be like a mine field, it would block certain to rain for movements, but that's it. would it leave a radioactive effect that would essentially make that zone on it, habitable or unusable? for some time, it would make a certain so usable? of course, it depends on the size on the composition on the way it is that an 8 on yell to to, to do that tonight. but it will basically make it smaller area only habitable. but thus it is, of course, the long term effects are worse than a mine field because it's easier to clear, a mindful, but the immediate military effect is that of a mine field. so next fact based question. is there any evidence that ukraine does have such a weapon and might be planning to use it? this is all bogus nonsense. there is no preparation for making

a as such a bomb. and it would make absolutely, sir, or military sense for you or you trained to even think about that it is complete propaganda. and yeah, and jessica, what do you think about russia? might they have a dirty bomb? and might they be considering using it? it wouldn't be the 1st time that russia has accused someone else doing something that in fact, it itself plans to do. and we do know russia just conducted in military drill, stimulating a response to a nuclear attack. but that in fact included a nuclear strike in response. so what do you think? precisely as cost of said the proposition from lover of that ukraine would be doing this and planning. this is completely farcical. it's complete bollocks, but from the russian side this is a signal. this is a threat. we have these in our arsenal. we would be willing to use them at the end

of the day. this is a further sign of the weakness of the russian position on the battlefield. this threat is meant to change the narrative and to move the fear of western governments and western voters to try to reduce support for ukraine. it's another classic example of russia pushing ally some fantastic nonsense into the media. then it gets picked up reported on, discussed, doesn't mean to do they not, and they create in this way and help shape the narratives across the world. but what we actually need to see here is that this is another lie. another threat from a government whose word has become meaningless. so let's talk about what is the fact that narrative is having room and how are people in ukraine reacting to putting, playing and, and of course, the frenchman playing the fear card. well, and people remain calm, but still they are worried. and for the 1st time since the beginning of this war,

i saw that people really think that it is possible for russia to use nuclear weapons against ukraine. something people denied in the beginning. they didn't believe it can happen, but after russia and next, those 4 regions of ukraine, 2 in the east and 2 in the south. and after russian threatened to use are all it can, including new co evans, if you cranes continues to fight on the territory which russia now believes is russian. so people were discussing this or they were thinking about their plans, what they would do or how they would protect their children, their families. and the government are made some, some remarks on that and certain stay calm, but you should know what to do. and there were preparations of shelters in ukrainian cities for that case. but still on the large scale, i would say that ukrainian remained rather skeptical the don't, don't believe that russia would do such a thing because it is too dangerous for us for itself. russia is not so far away and to detonate a nuclear bomb or to bomb ukraine with a nuclear weapon,

avita tactical weapon, or, or any other kind. and it would mean that it is too high, a risk for russia itself or its neighbor bellows. let me ask agra stuff whether you would agree with that assessment. as he mentioned, laramie put in has said that he is prepared to use any weapon in russia's arsenal to defend russian territory. and now that he has annexed her son and several other regions, he considers those to be russian territory. on the other hand, u. s. intelligent services say that they do not see evidence that rushes nuclear pasture has changed. so what are you expecting to the extent that you can assess while i 2nd us assessment, we are very closely watched the preparation of the noun. huge exercise has been very closely watched a test of a nuclear drone. russia has tested in the previous month,

and we could very well trace the movements of physical materials or react, of course, cetera. so we know when russia move something, and if russia move something we can pick up, all the americans can pick up the red telephone and make a call. ah, but are russia will make nuclear noise? and it does, sir, because he knows that this is your only convincing argument they can make to deter the west from supporting ukraine. and unfortunately, we are providing them with evidence that this argument works. chancellor. so sholtes himself sate numerous times that he doesn't want to lead germany into world war that will, one is to be avoided by to make it to coming to the fear card. iden himself, dates that he has a very, very and talented wording in his own articles. and speeches are there on there is noise in the white house that this is to be taken and sort of that the

americans are even taking much too seriously. and that we give too much room to this kind of in intimidation or at they see the rush and see that we still hold back decisive military equipment for ukraine. so they see that the fear mongering works. and so they do more of that. it works for them. we heard president zalinski, they're saying the west must harshly react. and jessica, we did hear the pride president biden, seeing that he is communicating directly to the russians, that it would be a grave mistake, in his words, to resort to any type of radioactive weapon. we heard the friends there, foreign ministers of france, the u. k. and the u. s. are so i had sending very clear messages, but is it enough? now, those words need to be backed up with hard actions. more weapons for ukraine or offensive weapons for ukraine. they need tanks, they need more air defense. and the western partners need to give it to them. this

is the only thing that put in will react to. he is watching the message and coming out of washington out of berlin out of brussels very closely. and the speeches have 0 effect on him. the only thing that will change the dynamic in this war and give, put in a same taste of some of the fear and intimidation that he is so successfully spreading across nato is to show that we are delivering results quickly. and that western support will help you crane secure, a decisive victory within the coming year. but unfortunately, the, the speeches and the comments. yes, of course, it's important to say if you make this step, that results for you will be catastrophic. but we need to back that up with action in real time and giving the ukrainians to support. they need to stand up to the russian offences and a further point, just on this entire narrative, even the facts that, that we are now breaking apart and talking about the russian dirty bomb stories is

this is a part of showing how effective the strategy is. they, in a way, are able to shape the narrative of this war by taking these kinds of proactive steps by putting stories out there. and we need to become collectively across the ukraine alliance. much more effective in simply dismissing these, these statements out of hand. it isn't that also what we're doing when we media talk about these issues, don't we need to give people the facts about, for example, what are dirty bomb isn't, is not sure break down the facts. let people know. but i think the, the leading point needs to be that we don't even give love of the media or time when he's putting the stuff out there. that's part of the problem. we were treating the russian narratives on equal footing as the statements coming out of cave. and that's a mistake. let me just bring in a few viewer comments in the very little remaining time that we have. we receive

several comments from youtube viewers in response to last week's show. for example, this one. at this point, this conflict is no longer about just ukraine. it seeks to answer the basic questions, conditions with nuclear weapons, blackmail those nations that don't. and you better believe china and north korea are watching this closely. and another viewer says, this viewer is fin tux. the thought that letting russia get its will would make the west somehow safer or make things better in general is completely out of touch with reality. roman. do you think that clearly these are viewers who share the consensus here on the panel. but do you think that citizens in the west can remain steadfast in, in view of the roofs that the russians are using? well, most of them can yes, there is a minority which are susceptible to such russian propaganda. both most of them are can and they will yes. and very briefly to our guests here in the studio. our title

was the room with the dirty bomb assign putin's weakness to step weakness, weakness. thank you very, very much to all of you for being with us. once again on to the point, thanks to our viewers for joining us. and please do check out our show on youtube and send us your comments. we'd love to hear them, so please do share them below. take care and good bye for now. with ah ah

ah, with who are going to put your vladimir putin has made a monumental mistake. he believes that he is destroying the ukrainian states son in reality. he's only destroying his own. he won't be able to retain power for much

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