an exploit, it is a green revolution is absolutely necessary. europe revealed the future is thing determined. now, our documentary theories will show you how people, companies, and countries are we thinking everything lacking later changes your review. this week on d. w with russia has suffered key reversals on the battlefield. as cass forces have come to attacked and t fact the wind sway the territory. my guess this week from moscow is andre kalashnikov, senior fellow at the think tank, the county ag endowment for international peace as anger mounts among some of the ma putin supporters. how vulnerable is he?

he's ready to stay in power at all costs, because he considers himself as a son and the start of his own mission, and he must returns as grant greatness to russia, but the conflict of split russian society, and radicalized both supporters and opponents of the war. how serious all the calls from local lawmakers for putting to resign the treason charges and what russia pose more of a threat to the west if it wins your war or lose it? yeah, and you can think of in moscow, welcome to come to the zone. thanks a lot. seems clear that ukraine has made some important military gains in recent days as things stand now, how big a set back of these ukranian advances for the kremlin? you know, it's, it's a hard question because i don't see that kremlin has,

as really answer to this country offensive military answer. i mean, then political one and psychological in order to, to, let's say justify possible problems. as a beginning they said that this is regrouping or for troops, not more but i think chrome is not ready to make any concessions in any and diplomatic sense and in the political sense it is ready for further war of attrition. it could be continued the kremlin until now this kind of resource, i've been primarily military resources. so this is going to be continued. do you expect marked escalation from the kremlin in response to ukrainian moves? i think it's possible it could be natural as for from criminal site, given the,

the thinking it's very, very militarize. it's very aggressive. and that sense, i think they are pretty preparing right now. some see, military got the same times. they must find wars for different groups of, for the population because there are lots of hawks among people who are supporting, put him supporting of the war primarily. and has problems was it was a support from, from just very group. because amongst supporters of perkins, there is a group of course and a group of dos from dos as a she'll kind of authentic as they want to p stocks and vice versa. so pretty much described or military or sources they might describes a situation improper worse. but the total difference of the population

saves. so right now, the problem is can say that this is going to, it could just suck impulse, but very problematic situation. pushing i tell you from what you say there will be people, even among the elite to asking themselves if flood demon putin is still up to the job. we have the chechen leader runs and cut their off who doesn't hide his anger. he said, if today or tomorrow, changes are not made in the conduct of the military operation, i'll be forced to go to the countries leadership to explain the situation on the ground. that's pretty direct and that's pretty insulting, isn't it for the president? since he has to spend the fangs, it's got a full the stress of that he's a soldier of put him than simply obeying him. and she can implement any commands from kremlin or the sickly his. he is

such a sincere person when he's describing the current situation, i think he will get some science or commend from kremlin to to get you to on this topic because it's too sensitive for kremlin. this is an excess of one of the persons who are involved in this terrible disaster in this terrible conflicts. i don't think that could be serious. yes. yes, it is noticeable for a lot of people. but as a santana time, generally doesn't change the public opinion around doesn't change the situation and does not influence the military decisions. another people are responsible for a military answer to ukrainians. so it's symptomatic, but it is still not so dangerous. so for a bruton,

we're not talking about was both discontent inside 0. it's, i think we can witness different kind of discontents, but people are trying to be mute is late because they care they afraid of their position and sizes, established rooms. we're also seeing for the 1st time political moves against the president from elected representatives will be at that local municipal level in both moscow and st. petersburg public calls for him to resign. and in the case of st. petersburg calls for him to face charges of treason. isn't it extraordinary these moves, and how serious do you think they are or how serious could these become? this is very interesting phenomenon because politically, it is not so important for kremlin. it is not

a danger for kremlin of any kind. it's because municipal gypsies do not play any significant role as a political system. but at the same time it's symptomatic that people don't feel fear the situation where they could, the prosecutors for this kind of letters and those atmosphere in the answer is very sultry and everyone who express she is almost new on all the situation, could be persecuted by and by the scientist in terms of the criminal code to administrative court, some places. but nevertheless, it was threat such a fetish from the situation and then say once openly, voluntarily express discontent was put in sessions. this is something you special from the size of municipal deputies and maybe this is soon you

sign up from growing discontent inside. so not only lead butts inside to the society as such because municipal differences closer to society than any kind of the mother state level for deputies, regional level or federal level. what happens if these actions spread to other municipal authorities or to moscow itself? how dangerous could that be for the president, the staples to the suppressed? and for the moment, nobody paid a lot of attention treats said just possible that all the people has done has this kind of levers could be in trouble. ah, i'm afraid that it's going to disprove that are all around the whole russian. in that case, yes,

it's dangerous. promote primarily not for put in but for deputies again, but it's really important sets civil society still here until society still express and use not only using such tools coming to the 3 sore throat casting because journalist but writing classroom to top assurance is accusing put in in a, in a state, sir. treason. this is an important science. up till now, moscow has done everything. seems to have done everything to pretend that life is just the same as ever in russia, the mass funerals, no weeping mothers on television, the ballet and our proceedings are getting on the way and moscow museums galleries are open. the party boats going up and down the moscow river is this fictional no malice he about to come to a sudden end to think we'll see full scale mobilization now. yeah,

this is the right term fiction on the mileage putting create these impression then the people are creating it specialists and portions in name big cities. ah. because for instance, i've got in who's funnel ellis of his quiet kids a good say state manager osco must leaf. so normal life in order to be distracted from all this atrocities. some disaster is the grand france and the rest stepped from put aside was not to announce general mil, military mobilization, military address, because it could provoke discontent among criminal costs. millions of people who are living in the big city or middle says they don't want to go to war. we can talk about, let's say college troops which are sitting their homes,

what you to be indifferently supporting the special operation. but as the same time, they don't think about those, the involvement into real war into transfers. this is more for a poor population poor group. so for population, for people from republics, distance provinces could be soldiers. this is for so here at to tracks for this is a jewel, isn't in brains for russians, especially men, middle classes. here is one trick. i'm living my private life. as it was always, i am concentrating on the surviving as in other directors states rec, so people put in, initiated this war for cation knows better. i will not pay too much attention to his arguments,

but he is always right. i will support that's indifferently not fiercely so and put him, gives me an opportunity to concentrate on my own business on my own problems. i don't wait for any help for him from him, but it's quite who's that he doesn't and often to my problems. so it is useful for himself because she can continue this war and not paying too much attention. i'm not attracting too much attention to it because atrocities people are trying not to pay a lot of attention to bad news. want to be on societal for goodness, natalie's a sense of evil. and because of that they, they prefer to block bed information. and it's quite good for put in right now, your one of the sharpest russian critics of the war in ukraine and that

e mail in one of the sharpest critic, still writing and still in russia. do you not feel on the threat yourself personally doing this? you know, there is such a special term scholar at risk. so who could save that? them a scholar at risk. but there are very different reasons for different people to stay in russia or to leave russian. and i know a lot of my colleagues and friends for us to hear some of them up persecutes it's. some of them are arrested for instance, micro political science system, leticia and then it goes month by this only an administrator for persecution, for him or for us people as veterans leaf, a russian, and a case of persecution for any person here is better not to play this game with us

for it is because it's dangerous drums have been to your for physical health and possible arrests, etc, etc. but from the point of view, for real research, from the point of view of understanding what is happening here from the point of view of your own attitude towards this regime. this is quite important to be here. so this is my country. my country is not equal to put his country, and i prefer to be here because i don't feel in a get a guilt so i don't feel any responsibility for us to trust us. so this is my truth. ah, but again, in some circumstances, be noticeable to leave the country just like it was inevitable for primarily

prominent journalists to leif russia in order to contribute information, real alternative information for the russian populations. they can do it from inside until now i can broadcast and i can write, but it could finish in any moment. couldn't, doesn't scare you though, does he? he is a real dick said for who is sincerely assured that nobody can shut her. she is authority that he, she has mission to create new silver and she knew greatness to russia and she must consolidate people around him. and people are not ready to be consolidated . they are simply national 3. she's come, come and i miss, for in that sense of cetera, he's not the president of the whole russian handled rushed in that sense. ah, maybe he respects she respects his enemies,

but it doesn't mean that they are going to be persecuted because of this respectable status. so he says, sure is that he's doing everything right. you've written at length about your country past, present future. but i was struck by how you recently connected the dots. russia you said, is i'm lucky with it's future because it's, i'm lucky with it's passed. it suggests your country is changed to what a violent history and can find its way to breaking free from that. is that what you meant to convey? i mean, that's one of the grounds for put insidious gees the glorious past and very specific interpretation of the history. which is really falsification for your own history because she takes dark,

paid yourselves this of this past and he is what way fortune presents he's whitewash? incur stolen his time. ah, and in that sense, historical policy for him, this is a tool for govern things this country. ah, he craves false glory is fast and this is a ground for consolidating around him. is an inheritor of the grades. so if you'll take a real pass, you will, you should be ready for any kind of normal reading coast as fast. we can make conclusions from its best conclusions, horrible conclusions, but this is the ground for going somewhere for the future. just like just like it wasn't perestroika test we, when we, we became to to know something about ourselves,

not or foster it was, it became an open window for the future for moving from a horrible past normal future to western eyes it and modernize it's russia right now as a received slice of verse, so it's very important to recreate understanding of your own busts in cable to know and to admit that some pages in this past was horrible. were horrible. you said the put in whitewash is the style in this period now, but it wasn't always that way. 5 years ago, he stood by the so called wall of grief in moscow and said it was important to remember the repression that took place in soviet society. and now children are taught in your schools. the old soviet union didn't repress anybody. what changed putin do? you think i,

i don't believe in the evolution of put his fears up huge in the year to solvent one, he only inches away. total power i comparison was muslim miscellany in terms of she can restore a fun to tell terry and features which were typical for the past. and he simply adapted to current circumstances from the beginning. he was inheritor of he else and he had to support some ideas about democracy. good relations was arrested cetera, et cetera. but now he is absolutely sincere. he is free from politeness. he lost his shame. absolutely. he disrupted all the plans for the west. so he subsided, russia, he expresses content,

was it so for humor, repression, this is ruth, she admits he is ready to say that there were repressions. but at the same time, she can't meet. and she came to law to speak people to me that it was so significant since history maybe it was to which could so help her stalin to rule to create an order. so it's kind of a contradictory approach seats, but nevertheless, right now to whitewashed everything. last week, your group published research showing that the war had divided rather than united russians, and both sides had been radicalized by this conflict. what do you think will be the

lasting effects of this polarization now, in russian society? yes, russia sleeps here, a good russians and bed rations, as i said. so anybody who is against us is not our l. i. and get that sense. we can say both citizens for the 2nd shorts and russia labeled us for that. just simply people who are not trust war see for top a story is and yes, the problem is the pillars ation leads to radicalization of for us people who are supporting, put in our support fiercely right now and put in who were in a support ticket. also became more sure, so not supporters. a few. there are some sleep,

some side to different groups. as i said, even amongst supporters of protests, there are people who prefer, for instance, more hawkish approached as a war and the group for which prefers less focused approach. but generally speaking, this is please and it, it has linked to, let's say, hybrid civil war between russian groups of the population not physically is not visible as a physical and see real, real war between different groups who are fighting was it said, it is more about it yeah, so where it's not support to support in this as again to the citizens. second sort of, i'm sorry to interrupt you, but we're running out of time. i just want to get to

a couple more points. you say that russia is at a dead end, a historical dead end as you put it. what did you mean by that car? come move forward, can't move backwards. if, if it's true that it's, it's a dead end. what happens next? destination must recreate itself. she will was, it must be, we'll see that's a receipt as a k. but i feel as the most fear assaulting him kind of a despair, disillusion people over a pass to kill and another to guest new incentives for new development. we need a new government. let's say such a simple approach put in must disappear in a political way. i mean a nother to catch another to find an exit from this dead ends in order to get your incentive for a new development for

a modernization of this country. and one more problem is says a problem of collective responsibility for, for we are waiting for a lot of discussions developed. and we are involved in discussions right now. well, collect your responsibility and it's difference with collective guilt. are responsible for it. so we will be in a situation just like german nation after the 2nd world war. what happens if put in can't claim victory the if the reversals on the battlefield continue. will he pose more of a threat to the west if he wins, or if he loses? i think it's substance li equal us. she can be dangerous being for terrorists and he can be danger bank in a, in a defeat situation. but so he's really could be a corner,

it could be that insulted by, by the said defeat. and of that sense, she could be more and more dangerous because he has a nuclear weapon. this is a main problem. but generally speaking, he can describe his defeat as a victory for the population and population will accept. it's again the indifferently because here is a fatty crumbs this war and people are waiting for a frozen end of the story is the same time sandra. sounds that it could be prolonged, it's the longest war and say, morally, ready to the problem patient is disaster. very briefly. do you think he's just desperate to stay in power at all costs? yes, he's ready to stay in power at all costs, because again, she considers himself at this sort of his own mission and he must returns

his grand greatness to russia. unfortunately, this is really sold psychology under kalashnikov. it's been good to have you on the program. thank you very much indeed. thank you. thank you so much with

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