tv Conflict Zone Deutsche Welle November 17, 2022 1:30pm-2:01pm CET
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me she performed for her life and schmidt's, ah, ah, 2 musicians who lived beneath the banner of the swastika about the legal music under this wants to go starts november 19th on dw. russia has suffered key reversals on the battlefield. as cass forces have counter attacked and sees back the wide sway the territory. my guess this week from moscow is andre kalashnikov, senior fellow at the think tank, the county gate endowment for international peace as anger amounts among some of the may put in supporters. how vulnerable is he?
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he's ready to stay in power at all costs, because he considers himself as a son, and this sort of has his own mission, and he must returns his grant greatness to russia. but the conflict of split russian society and radicalized both supporters and opponents of the war. how serious all the calls from local lawmakers for put in to resign the treason charges . and what russia pose more of a threat to the west if it wins your war? all loses. yeah, and you can think of in moscow, welcome to come to the zone. thanks a lot. seems clear that ukraine has made some important military gains in recent days as things stand now, how big a set back of these ukranian advances for the kremlin. you know, it's, it's a hard question because i don't see that kremlin has as really answer to this
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counter offensive military answer. i mean, then political one and psychological in order nodded to, let's say justify possible problems for the beginning. they said that this is regrouping for troops, not more but i think chrome is not ready to make any concessions in any diplomatic sense. and in the political stance, it is ready for further war of attrition. it could be continuance and kremlin until now. has this kind of resource, i've been primarily military resource. so this is to be continued. do you expect marked escalation from the kremlin in response to ukrainian moves? i think it's possible it could be natural as for from criminal site, given the,
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the thinking it's very, very militarize. it's very aggressive. and that sense, i think they are pretty preparing right now. some see, military got the same times. they must find wars for different groups of, for the population because there are lots of hawks among people who are supporting, put him supporting the war primarily and has problems was it was a support from, from just very group. because amongst the portraits of perkins, there is a group of course and a group of dos from dos as a. she'll kind of authentic as they want to p stocks and vice versa. so pretty much described or military or sources. they might describes dissertation in proper words. but the total indifference, so the population saves. so right now,
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put into problem put his you can say that so this is going to, it could just suck impulse, but very problematic situation. pushing i tell you from what you say there will be people, even among the elite to asking themselves in flood demon putin is still up to the job. we have the chechen leader rams and cut their off who doesn't hide his anger. he said, if today or tomorrow, changes are not made in the conduct of the military operation, i'll be forced to go to the countries leadership to explain the situation on the ground. that's pretty direct and that's pretty insulting, isn't it? to the president. since he has to spend the fangs, it's got a full the stress of that he's a soldier for him than simply obeying him. and she can implement any commands from kremlin are the sickly his. he is
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such a sincere person. when he's describing the current situation, i think you will guess some science or command from kremlin to, to give you all this topic because it's too sensitive for kremlin. this is an excess of one of the persons who are involved in this terrible disaster in this terrible conflicts. i don't think that could be serious. yes. yes, it is noticeable for a lot of people. but as a santana time, generally doesn't change. public opinion around put doesn't change the situation and does not influence the military decisions and other people are responsible for military answer to ukrainians. so it's symptomatic but it is still not so dangerous. so for a protein,
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when i'm talking about was both discontent and signed 0 it's i think we can witness different kind of just contents. but people are trying to be in youth leads because they care they afraid of their position and sizes, established rooms. we're also seeing for the 1st time political moves against the president from elected representatives will be at that local municipal level in both moscow and st. petersburg, public goals for him to resign. and in the case of st. petersburg calls for him to face charges of treason. isn't it extraordinary? these moves, and how serious do you think they are? how serious could these become? this is very interesting phenomenon because politically, it is not so important for kremlin. it is not
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a danger for criminal venica because municipal gypsies do not play any significant role in this political system. but at the same time, it's symptomatic that people don't feel fear the situation where they could, the persecutors from scandal letters, and also miss fear in the answer is very sultry and to everyone who express she is almost view on all the situation. could be prosecuted by and by the sources in terms of the criminal code to administrative court. some lessons, but nevertheless, people us threat such effect from the situation and then say once openly, voluntarily express discontent was put in sessions. this is something you specialist from the sides of municipal deputies and maybe this is soon you
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sign up from growing discontent in science, not only lead butts inside the society as such because municipal differences closer to society than any kind of the mother state level for deputies regional level or federal level, what happens if these actions spread to other municipal authorities or to moscow itself? how dangerous could that be for the president? the staples to the suppressed? and for the moment nobody pays a lot of attention treats safe disposable. that's all just people because then as it's kind of let us could be in trouble, i'm afraid that it's going to spread. it's are all around the whole russian. you best case?
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yes. it's dangerous. promote primarily not for putting bucks for deputies again, but it's, it's really important sets civil society still here until society still express and use not only using such tools come into the streets or growth casting because journalist but a writing class or so to top us for it is accusing, put in, in, in a states treason. this is an important sign. up till now. moscow has done everything. seems to have done everything to pretend that life is just the same as ever in russia, the mass funerals, no weeping mothers on television, the ballet and our proceedings are getting on the way and moscow museums galleries are open. the party boats going up and down the moscow river is this fictional normality about to come to
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a sudden end to think we'll see full scale mobilization now. yeah, this is the right term fiction on the mileage. put his create these impression then that people are creating needs specialists and persons in the big cities. ah, because for instance, i've done in who's one of the ellis of his quiet kids a good say state manager osco must leaf. so normal life, in order to be distracted from all this atrocities some disaster is ukraine in france. and the right step from put aside was not to announce general mil, military mobilization military address. because it could provoke discontent among middle class. not millions of people who are living in the big city or middle says they don't want to go to war. we can talk about, let's say college troops,
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which are sitting their homes watching tv in different lists, supporting the special operation. but as the same time, they don't think about those, the involvement into real war into trenches. this is more for a poor population per group. so for population, for people from republics, distance, it province. this could be soldiers. this is for so here up to tracks for this is a julie's in brains for, for russians, especially men, middle classes. here is one threat. am living my private life. as it was always, i am concentrating on the surviving. and in other trek as states rec, so people put in, initiated this war for cation knows better. i will not pay too much attention to
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his arguments, but he is always right. i will support that indifferent plane. not fiercely so, and put him gives me an opportunity to concentrate on my own business on my own problems. i don't wait for any help for him from him, but it's quite who's that he doesn't and often to my problems. so it is useful for himself because she can continue this war and not paying too much attention not, not attracting too much attention to it because atrocities people are trying not to pay a lot of attention to bad news. want to be on society for goodness, not towards the center of evil. and because of that they, they prefer the block bed information. and it's quite good for put in right now, your one of the sharpest russian critics of the war in ukraine,
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and that he may put in one of the sharpest critic, still writing and still in russia. do you not feel the threat yourself personally doing this? you know, there is such a special term scholar that risk could save that them a scholar at risk. but there are very different reasons for different people to stay in russia or to leave russian. and i know a lot of my colleagues and friends for us to hear. some of them are persecuted, some of them are arrested, for instance, micro political science system, leticia and then it goes month by this only an administrator for persecution, for him. of those people. it's better to leave the russian and the case of persecution for any person here is better not to play this game with us for it is
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because it's dangerous drums, a bunch of physical health and possible arrests, etc, etc. but from the point of view, for real research, from a point of view of understanding what is happening here. and from the point of view of your own attitude towards this regime. this is quite important to be here. so this is my country. my country is not equal to put his country and i prefer to be here because i don't feel in a get in a guilt. i don't feel and the responsibility for the put on the thrusters. so this is my church. ah, but again, in some circumstances it's a bull to, to, to leave the country just like it was inevitable for primarily prominent
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journalists to leave russia in order to contribute information, real alternative information for the russian population. they can do it from inside, until now i can broadcast and i can write. but i could finish in any moment. couldn't, doesn't scare you though, darcy, he's a real dick said we're who is sincerely assured that nobody can shut her. she's authority that he, she has mission to create new server and she knew greatness to russia and she must consolidate people around him. and people are not ready to be consolidated . they are simply national 3. she's come a column and i miss for that cetera. he's not the president of the whole russian handled rushed in that sense. ah,
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maybe he respects she respects his enemies, but it doesn't mean that they are going to be persecuted because of this respectable status. so he says, sure is that he's doing arizona writes, you written at length about your country past, present future. but i was struck by how you recently connected the dots. russia you said, is i'm lucky with its future because it's, i'm lucky with it's cost. it suggests your country is changed to what a violent history and can find its way to breaking free from that. is that what you meant to convey? i mean, that's one of the grounds for put insidious gees the glorious past and very specific interpretation of the history which is really falsification of your own history because she takes dark pages this of this past and he is what word?
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fortune, for instance, he's whitewash. incur stolen his time. ah, and in that sense historical policy for him, this is a tool for gover. things as countering ah, he craves false glory is fast and this is a ground for consolidating around him. is an inheritor of his grades. so if you feel take a real pass, you will, you should be ready for any kind of normal reading coast as fast. we can make conclusions from its best conclusions, horrible conclusions, but this is a ground for going somewhere for the future. just like, just like it wasn't perestroika test we, when we, we became to to know something about ourselves,
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not our past. it was, it became an open window for the future for moving from a horrible past normal future to western eyes it and modernize it's russia right now as soon as last reverse. and so it's very important to recreate understanding of your own bus being cable to know and to admit that some pages in this past was horrible. were horrible. you said the put in whitewash is the style in his period now, but it wasn't always that way. 5 years ago, he stood by the so called wall of grief in moscow and said it was important to remember the repression that took place in soviet society. and now children are taught in your schools that the old soviet union didn't repress anybody. what changed putin do you think?
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i, i don't believe in the evolution of putting a few options in the year to solvent one. she only inches away her to power. i. comparison was muscle miscellany terms. if she can restore some to tell terry and features which are typically for the past. and he simply adapted to current circumstances from the beginning. he was inheritor of he also had to support some ideas about democracy, good relations with west, et cetera, et cetera. but now he stops, those are sincere. he is free from politeness. he lost his shame, absolutely disrupted all the class was arrest. so he subsided, russia. he expresses content,
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was it so for humor repressions, this is ruth. she admits he is ready to say that there were repressions, but at the same time she can't of the needs. and she came to law to speak people to me that it was so significant since history maybe it was to which could so help her stalin to rule to create an order. so it's kind of a contradictory approach seats, but nevertheless, right now to whitewashed everything. last week, your group published research showing that the war had divided rather than united russians, and both sides had been radicalized by this conflict. what do you think will be the
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lasting effects of this polarization now in russian society? yes, russia sleeves. sure. a good russians and bed rations, as i said. so anybody who is against us is not our. ready l i and that sense we can say both citizens for the 2nd shorts and russia labeled for insurance for simply people one not trust war. see for top of sorry, this and yes, the problem is so the polarization leads to radicalization of for the us, people who are supporting, put in as a party can fiercely right now and put in who went to support taking also became more sure. so not support there's a few. there are some sleet society to different groups. as i said,
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even amongst supporters of pretend there are people who prefer, for instance, more hawkish approached as a war, as a group for which prefers less focused approach. but generally speaking, this is a sweet and it, it has linked to, let's say, hybrid civil war between the russian group. so the population not physically is not visible as a physical city. real, real war between different groups who are fighting with it said it is more about entities. so where it's not supporters of put in this as again to the citizens. second sort of, i'm sorry to interrupt you, but we're running out of time. i just want to, to get to
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a couple more points. you say that russia is at a dead end, a historical dead end as you put it. what did you mean by that car? come move forward, can't move backwards. if, if it's true that it's, it's a dead end, what happens next? destination must recreate itself. she will visit musket, we'll see that a receipt is a case. but i feel as a set, most fear assaulting him. kind of a despair is unused and people have a petticoat and another 2 guest new incentives for new developments. we need new government, let's say such a simple approach put in must disappear in a political way. i mean, they know that you can't find a next. it's from this dead ends in order to get your incentive for
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a new development for modernization of this country. and one more problem is says a problem of collective responsibility for, for we are waiting for a little discussion. civility. and we are involved in discussions right now about collecting for a responsibility and it's difference with collective guilt are responsible for it. so we will be in a situation just like her german nation after the 2nd world war. what happens if putin can't claim victory? the if the reversal is on the battlefield, continue. will he pose more of a threat to the west if he wins or if he loses? i think it's substance li equal or she can be dangerous. being for terrorist, he can be danger bank in a, in a defense situation. but he's really could be corner,
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it could be that's insulted by, by the said defeat. and of that sense. she could be more in montana jurors because he has a nuclear weapon. this is a main problem, but generally speaking, he can describe his defeat as a victory for the population. and population will accept it's again the indifferently because here is a fairly crumbs this war and people are waiting for a frozen end of the story. is the same time sandra. sounds that it could be prolonged. it's the longest war and say, morally, ready to the problem cation of this disaster. very briefly, do you think he's just desperate to stay in power at all costs? yes, he is ready to stay in power at all costs, because again, she considers himself as of this sort of his own mission and he must returns
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ah ah, this is dw news live from berlin. ukraine calls for access to the site in poland where a missile killed 2 people. nato is supporting colin's assessment that ukrainian air defense was likely to blame. a key of this questioning those findings also coming up on the clock is ticking for delegates in egypt to agree on.
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