tv To the Point Deutsche Welle November 25, 2022 12:30pm-1:01pm CET
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filled with explosives, a symbol of power, rebellion and sensuality. wound by royalty and icons alike. and you got this and magic wand to ground, to divorce guy with a cannon full cultural history. secret weapon mistaken doubts. december 3rd on d. w. or massacres, torture and kidnappings. the list of alleged war crimes committed by russia is growing. moscow, military is relentlessly bombarding. civilian infrastructure in ukraine. power is often out. people are freezing in their homes and shelters. hospitals are destroyed,
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doctors are working to exhaustion, war crimes, or just the regrettable side effects of any war. meanwhile, artillery beverages continue with undiminished force in the east to dawn basketball . today we ask, has russia become a terrorist? ah hello and welcome to to the point. let me introduce today's pat. jessica berlin is a political analyst and a visiting fellow of the german marshall fund, a thinking of kind of rich that form a power trip and retired colonel. with germany's bonus vandella military analyst at the german institute for international and security, and our very own that are small length about probably w's russia desk. i will come to all of you,
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and i would like to start to look at the situation on the ground. harrison was just re taken by ukraine. there was jubilation about it, but now morale apparently is very low citizens, fear of hearing the winter because russia has destroyed a lot of infrastructure when retreating. now ukraine colds that a terrorist act and a walk, why? oh, what i think is one should not called russia as a whole as a terrorist state. they are of course, violations of human rights violations of the who and turn law of war. and the aggression to such as of course, are trying against the piece. on the other hand, russia is a state is not a terrorist state, but we have still to look at the future. and we should still be in a position to talk to the russian leadership, whoever that might be, because we need it. we need a strategic dial of the americans needed for the strategic balance. and we might
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need it in europe to avoid arrest scenario. but if we're looking at what happens on the ground there, right now, the ukrainian authorities understand to be, say, boy, that the population is facing a 2nd battle now against the cold and against hunger. so i was not to let me ask you as well, is that a war crime? is that the act, the other, those, the actions of a terrorist? well, i've been just talking to people who are in ukraine right now to our correspondence . and both, if i know they're not specifically and her son, but all around the queen, there was a major black out, i think yesterday was a very important day. so to say, because of the and the massive attacks on the infrastructure. and this is a deliberate strategy to targeting these infrastructure and they're selling the bombs or not ending at the mill, 2 objects, the amy and their power stations to make conditions for civil actually unbearable.
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and the queen authorities have sent it numerous times that this is act of terror. this is gilbert strategy. and i think the last he has been asking for a month and is he would be in american partners to actually lease trash as a terrorist state. they only do this now, and i think the reasons that they want to ensure and the support it's white, largely a symbolic state is symbolic move to actually show show ukrainians, show ukrainian or politicians that we are with you. we know what's happening and we stand by your side, but whether this will have any actual effect both on the battlefield, it also can change and they can criminal. i don't think such, we come to the designation of the tourist states or in a moment. let me talk about the, the pope recently, he reminded the world of hollow mo door that's the night insert as a temp by starling to starve millions of ukrainians into into submission. 7000000 people died. the jesse, do you see perils here is put and taken a leave out of stollins book there. um is that using hunger as a weapon?
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absolutely, we have to remember that russian aggression in ukraine and the efforts of the russian state to destroy ukrainian national and cultural identity and to eradicate the ukrainian population. predates this war by a long, long time. this is a centuries of recurring violence from the russian empire in the sorriest times from the soviet union under stalin. so for ukrainians, this war, this war of aggression is just a further step in a centuries long history of russian attempts to annihilate ukrainian cultural and national identity and the 90th anniversary of the hello to more genocide is of course a stirring and stark reminder of what happens when we as the international community failed to act, fail to, to, to deter and detain russian aggression now. cubes. maria italy,
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cliffs go. says the coming winter. ah, will be the worst since world war 2 for ukrainians. is that true? if i make okay, come to their food as a weapon in the war, i think we can also see it is more broadly like the grain deal. for instance, the attempt of blocking ukrainian grain coming out of ports, which will cause not only hunger in ukraine, but also what african countries for the other countries in the world. i think in russia and put in using food as a weapon has been as topic for a long time. it's not only now now maybe it's become more actual because of the university of hole in the more in this kind of things. but i think it's like a recurring topic and it's not like at least one an event. and as for their coming a winter, of course, and the situation right now on the ground is very dire. but from what i hear people are, it's not like they used to, but they have been there prepared to endure for some time yet. and i've been trying to figure out if there will be, you know, their moods or, you know,
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moving maybe to other european countries or to, you know, it was your crane and i haven't found those people are determined to stay there. people are determined to fight for, i'm not prepared to negotiate at this point. and i think this and, you know, referring to what's happening now as there was to interesting 2nd world war. it's also kind of an urge from the college going this case from ukrainian politicians to attract more attention to what's happening and to actually call and europe in partners to deliver what they promised. because they've promised a lot of help here in berlin. we had this and conference and reconstruction, if you could only crane and like an enormous amount of money was promised there. but there was also a message from our president zalinski saying that we haven't seen a cent of this money. and it's way great that you are promising this and you want to restore the ukraine after the war. but we need this money in these decisions right now. and sadly, from what i'm hearing from our correspondence, there is that, you know, this support is being delayed. now you said that would you hearing from,
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from the correspondence is also that the morale is still high. people are willing to endure even the hunger and the cold. now, after nearly a year of fighting and many serious incidents have come to light and are being investigated right now, let's have a closer look at the allegations. a list of atrocities that keeps growing. un investigate to say there is mounting evidence of russian horrors in ukraine, including torture, sexual violence, executions and mass graves in places like boots out. now a crime scene reports by amnesty international indicate that moscow has also abducted ukrainian civilians. even separating children from their parents. only to give them up for adoption and russia. many also consider rush as bombing of critical infrastructure ukraine to be a targeted attack on the civilian population, which constitutes
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a war cry. people are currently at risk of freezing to death. in light of the serious accusations calls the growing louder to classify russia as a terrorist state. that's exactly what the european parliament did this week and voted overwhelmingly in favor of such a resolution. but the us is not willing to go that far. president biden believes that this classification could set back humana, terry, and efforts in ukraine and jeopardize potential peace negotiations with russia. now, what constitutes a terrorist state? one definition of terrorism is the systematic use of violence to create a general climate of fear in a population. and thereby to bring about a particular political objective of can, does russia fit the bill here? sounds like i normally the you and other countries in the west would qualify
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a terrorist, a state, a state that sponsors terrorist organizations that is at least a classical definition of that or take the case of iran and the case of his bola as a terrorist organization. that was defined as a tourist organization and iran is supporting it when we now oh, want to define a complete state as a terrorist organization or as a tourist state than it. but i guess biden is, is correct in saying this might go too far because we still have a need to discuss was at the state. it's not about single person. so there's a difference. and we of course, we'll have to find out finally, who is, who is responsible for the violations of human rights or for one of many turn law. but that goes too far because be still iffy. demos are complete state. we will have difficulties to negotiate later. and we needed an
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u. s. needs it needs to have to keep the nuclear balance. of course, they want to have a successor treaty of the new start treaty. and there will restart the strategic dialogue. so i find that is a, maybe a moral impetus behind that that can maybe satisfy the all needs. but for practical purposes, i think it's not very realistic and we will have to speak again. it's been there are a couple of points to to break down from both kinds comments. firstly, yes, he's right. that typically the state sponsor of terror is referring to a state that sponsoring other terrorist groups. not necessarily a state undertaking their own terrorist actions. in this case, however, russia fits both bills. this is not the 1st time that russia has been up for consideration as a state sponsor of terror. they have already been known to sponsor the iranian i, r g c group. for example,
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they have sponsored and supported has bella and even given them direct military and financial support in syria. so russia as a state sponsor of foreign terror is already on the cards. and now with the war of aggression in ukraine and the terrible war crimes they committed. and as per your definition that you mentioned earlier, they have clearly been committing directly acts of terror to terrorize the ukrainian population. now the practical considerations that was con, refers to from the american calculus is important to consider. because by labeling russia state sponsor of terror, the sanctions would be extended not only to russia, but also to any other companies around the world doing business with russian entities. and this could get very complicated very fast. thus, the american hesitation, however, i disagree with the concern that labeling russia state sponsor of terror would somehow mean that we are no longer able to speak with russia. on the contrary,
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this would be a very strong signal of deterrence. and an incentive for the russians to back down and come peacefully to the negotiating table by saying you will not get off this list until you lay down your arms and leave ukrainian territory to do. i don't agree. i think we will not be in a position to collect my russia into a submission. this is unrealistic, in my view. and if you're a demo knows a complete state. i don't speak about single persons who are responsible for this and that then you will have difficulty later on to speak openly to that state and it will not be a just a negotiation. we are the one side or decides what it sorry, where one side decides on rich terms there have done to settle. finally, it has to be a negotiations on you can footing a so it's neither way out. otherwise you cannot get strategic balance and that this is an american interest. what do you mean by demonization?
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this country is committing genocide. what is being demonized? prefer this country is not committing genocide. i think we should not be easy. we should not easily apply this word, genocide. there are certain terms for genocide you can say, and i would agree on that. there are committing war crimes. yes. committing moby crimes against humanity. there is the crime of aggression, of course, as such, riches all their or crimes defined in the statute of the internet called off or justice. but you cannot say it's a general side in the sense of the international definition. and i think that it's all going on long, but i just will push back this one last time because the definition of genocide is acts committed in whole or in part against a people to destroy their national and their cultural identity. and this has indeed taken place in ukraine having lived and worked previously in rwanda. my familiarity with genocide statutes is perhaps not as a lawyer,
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but certainly deep enough to to know that the russian crimes in ukraine do in fact, qualify by law as genocide. and let me know, let me um, address one question or 2 natalia, the reaction and what will the reaction in russia be with what the kremlin carried all? well, i think i was precisely want to say that, that, you know, i think by now camera has not caring actually what has been cold and how it's been cold. especially these are in the european union, european commission label of terrorism status. at this point in time, it doesn't mean anything in practical terms for kremlin it's, they condemned their actions in ukraine, but this is no news or for another for putting off best called m, like mary, as a hero, for instance, has reacted to this in, you know, typical kremlin way of, you know, laughing in their face about saying, dan, this see your opinion is estates for supporting stupidity or something like that.
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so it shows as they have the level of communication, there is no, no, no this diplomatic and talking about this. whether i think if for united states as, as you mentioned, it's the very, it's very different thing. it says it was faith would list rest of the terrorist there because it has some legal implications. and i think that would be taken very seriously. and in practical terms, but i don't think it will force them to either come to the table of negotiation or not come. i think a what can actually move russia to go to negotiation is the situation in the battlefield in his longest and both rash or actually both sides have something to achieve in the battlefield. there is no need for them to go to the negotiation table. sadly, that's the or the now the next topic that i would like to come to, i because the tactical picture on the ground is changing for both parties with winter coming. many expect that dropping temperatures will subdue the fighting me despite icy temperatures. fighting in ukraine continues undiminished.
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a contentious battle is taking place in bar mood, located within the don baths region. the small town remains under ukrainian control, according to ukrainian sources, russia ascending inexperienced recruits to fight that the small town has little strategic value at the moment. but after abandoning have sought, the russian army seems willing to risk anything to achieve even the slightest victory. however, expert suspect that the freezing temperatures could soon slow down the pace of fighting. and russia, in particular, would currently benefit from a break that would allow time to rebuild their armed forces. but that is precisely what the ukrainian army wants to avoid, their keeping up, the pressure, but ukrainian president lensky admits that the cost in human lives and resources is enormous. which side
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now which side is focusing more from the current situation and the the with the winter and the cold temperatures that are coming. i can you think, can ukraine keep up the momentum millet on the, on the battlefield, that the have at the moment and, and push, rush of further the grain has achieved a lot during the last months, the 1st big defeat, the russians were in front of give that was ready and it was based on a complete misunderstanding and misperception of the are creating an identity and unity and the capabilities to fight probably the rational sort everything. but what happened in 2014 would be repeated. that crane army is not ready to fight in some parts even to turn sites on the other hand, in the hock, if we saw in capability of the russian forces in terms of leadership,
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also in terms of forces and strengths, of course. and we saw a lot of initiative on that will create insight. kasanya is a different case in kept sun is on the, on the west bank of the river at napa river could not be kept by the russian side because of the logistics that could be easily distracted because they only 2 or 3 very narrow bottlenecks. over the river and that was a calculated retreat. so i would not be to a bishop on that and say this is in the initiative of the grant me insight. for the moment i feel we did not. we have not yet reached the strategic turning point of this, or the russians have still a lot of reserves, maybe not high quality, but in masses. in tanks, in terms of artillery, in terms of person that they are creating inside will be more and more dependent on west, on hope, because a lot of off on production capabilities has been destroyed and there needs this
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rest and assistance. my question is, what are the risks on the rest on site in political terms, but also an economic times i'll be really prepared. i'll be able to go to war production in the west, which would be needed if we want to sustain it. that's all. yeah. in terms of the russian will to keep on fighting. ah, is it, is it still there both in civil society? well, and political will, is there, i think russia went so to save our bank when they started this were, and you know, there is no way back. there is no way what is going to say, oh, sorry when miscalculated. now let's let us retreat. no, he, he went all in and even though they're the goals of this, an operation as he calls us, has been changing alongside when they saw that give was not possible to capture. now we'll concentrate on don boss, but they'll new to at least get some get something to, to declare victory at home. so i think they, the will, is there. well there is there a cup military of ability. and now we've seen that there for been new recruits of,
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well at least 3 or 300 solvent or new competence. l. quality of them is very questionable thing because those are people who may be or not. so what have aided to go into army. most of them haven't received a lot of training with here. a lot of stories about people going to come was just after you know, to weeks of training just after shooting couple of times, the guy with a gun and the willing to actually not fight and go away. or like maybe even a defect to the ukrainian that is big there. but for instance now i think there is because also campaign, maybe not in them in the media, but i can tell them channels. there is a lot of this, you know, process pro war bloggers have gaining this momentum and a calling for more and more aggressive moves. and now in ukraine, so now has, now i guess graham has to balance between there we are on the battlefield and this, you know, need of this like small group of very walk and we're defenders or we're activists to lake from how balanced this 2 sides is there any reason, no air, jessica,
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for the west to change that arc. all if anything, there's a reason further west to increase their aid to ukraine. but as of con, pointed out we're facing right now a real serious issue on production and supply. of course, there is still room for growth in our support of air defense and in particular, we still have not seen delivery of and b t's of main battle tanks. modern pattern battle tanks being delivered to ukraine. this would be vital in preparation for the spring offensive to give you cranium troops. the protection in terms of armored personnel carriers as well as tract tanks to be able to deal with the winter and spring mud conditions in the in the on coming offensive. we need to help you crane keep the pressure up on russia, not allow russia to regroup this winter and come into the spring fighting season, stronger. but to do so, would require a strong investment across all of nato to increase our production so that our own
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strategic domestic reserves can be maintained in stock. because of course, china will be watching very closely to see if and when western military resources are spread too thin. this opens a window for them to potentially put pressure on an attack tie one. so we're facing a difficult season. next year we'll bring a lot more difficult choices, but one thing is clear. ukraine cannot be allowed to lose. russia cannot be allowed to win. this is in all of our strategic interests across the free world. that brings you to my final question for, for, for this program negotiation stop. when both sides come make any progress. really, that's a natural point to start negotiations. let me start with you. welcome and briefly, what do you think we're close to that stage may be at that stage. at the moment we are not chose because as i said, the turning point of this war has not been reached yet. on the other hand,
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if i look back to the 29th of march of this year, the row some quite a good proposals in my view on the table for saying that you will not join nato. that is something the landscape put up there and communicated. the 2nd, the state of the crimea peninsula will be postponed by 15 years and negotiated in the mean time. and there will be a direct negotiation between the 2 presidents on the future status of the dawn bus . of course, everything under certain security guarantees. this was to my mind, the best proposal so far on the table, the most realistic one. both sides have turned away, putting has an ex territory, which of course slammed the door because the great indian aside cannot negotiate additional territory. and we are not there yet in military terms. so can i interrupt you this time is running out of natalia?
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let's come to you 1st. how close are we to negotiation? well, i think they're not actually very close. if that was the point when it was possible, or maybe i don't know, i don't the think it was possible actually then, but we are so far into the fighting and i think you can have lost so much and i think less prepared to negotiate. now, looking back as what has been, how the war has been going on with all the crimes we've been discussing with all their new investigations and international and everything. how this war is going on . i think there was less and less an agreement on the ukrainian side to actual negotiate with wooden jessica, what's your take? you cannot negotiate with terrorists and russia has acted as a terrorist states, even if they don't carry that legal distinction from the united states. if booting is allowed to gain any net benefit from his invasion of ukraine, then we all have lost. and this is the thing that must be not allowed to happen is must not be allowed to happen. it's a good final statement. that's it for this edition off to the point. i hope you
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