to go beyond deals with, as we take on the world. i do all these were all about the stories that matter to you. whatever you take 5 policeman follow up with you. we are, your is actually on fire made for mines with masochist torture and kidnappings. the list of alleged war crimes committed by russia is growing moscow's military's relentlessly bombarding civilian infrastructure in ukraine. power is often out. people are freezing in their homes and shelters. hospitals are destroyed,

doctors work into exhaustion. war crimes. well, just the regrettable side effects of any will. meanwhile, artillery badges continue with undiminished force in the east and on basketball. today we ask, has russia become a terrorist with hello and welcome to to the point. let me introduce today's pat. jessica berlin is a political analyst and a visiting fellow of the german marshall fund a think time both kind of a step forward power trip and retired colonel. with germany's bonus van al military analyst at the german institute for international and security. and our very own that tarley us molena evolved from w's russia desk. and well, welcome to all of you. and i would like to start to look at the situation on the

ground. hassan was just really taken by ukraine, that was jubilation about it. but now morale apparently is very low citizens, fear of hearing the winter, because russia has destroyed a lot of infrastructure when retreating. now ukraine calls that a terrorist act and the walk with oh, what i think is that one should not called russia as a whole as a terrorist state. they are, of course, violations of human rights violations of the who in the turn law of war. and the aggression, as such as, of course, are trying against that piece. on the other hand, russia as a state is not a terrorist state, but we have still to look at the future. and we should still be in a position to talk to the russian leadership, whoever that might be, because we need it, we need a strategic dialogue. the americans needed for the strategic balance,

and we might need it in europe to avoid a worst scenario. but if we're looking at what happens on, on the ground there, right now, the ukranian authorities understand to be, say, boy, that the population is facing a 2nd battle now against the cold and against hunger. so i was not to let me ask you as well, is that a war crime? is that the act, the other, those, the actions of a terrorist? well, i've been just talking to people who are in ukraine right now to our correspondence . and both, if i know they're not specifically and her son, but all around the queen, there was a major black out, i think yesterday was very important. they sort of say because of their and on the massive attacks on the infrastructure. and this is a deliberate strategy to and targeting these infrastructure, and they're selling the bombs are not any of the military objects that amy and their power stations to make conditions for surveillance, verbal and between us,

i just have sent numerous times that this is act of terror, this is in gilbert strategy, and i think the lance he has been asking for a month. and if you would be in american partners to actually lease stretch as a terrorist said, they only do this now. and i think the reasons that they want to ensure and the support it's white, largely symbolic state is symbolic. move to actually show show ukrainians, show ukrainian, or politicians that we are with you. we know what's happening and we're stand by your side. but whether this will have any actual effect, both on the battlefield and also how can i change or something can kremlin? i don't think we come to the designation of the term states or in a moment. let me talk about the the pope recently. he reminded the world of hollow mo door that's the night inserted, the tempest darling to starve millions of ukrainians into into submission. 7000000 people died there. jessica, do you see perils here is put in, taken a leave out of style in spoke there. um, is that using hunger as a weapon?

absolutely, we have to remember that russian aggression in ukraine and the efforts of the russian state to destroy ukrainian national and cultural identity and to eradicate the ukrainian population. predates this war by a long, long time. this is a centuries of recurring violence from the russian empire in the sorest times, from the soviet union under stalin. so for ukrainians, this war, this war of aggression is just a further step in a centuries long history of russian attempts to annihilate ukrainian cultural and national identity and the 90th anniversary of the hello to more genocide is of course a stirring and stark reminder of what happens when we as the international community failed to act, fail to, to, to deter and detain russian aggression now. cubes. maria italy,

cliffs go. says the coming winter. ah, will be the worst since world war 2 for ukrainians. is that true? if i make okay, come to their food as a weapon in the war, i think we can also see it is more broadly like the grain deal. for instance, the attempt of blocking ukrainian grain coming out of ports, which will close not only hunger in ukraine, but also what african countries for the other countries in the world. i think in russia and put in using food as a weapon has been as topic for a long time. it's not only now now maybe it's become more actual because of the university of hole in the more in this kind of things. but i think it's like a recurring topic and it's not like this one and event. and as for they're coming winter of course. and the situation right now on the ground is very dire. but from what i hear people are, it's not like they used to eat, but they have been, they're prepared to endure it for some time yet. and i've been trying to figure out if there will be, you know, their moods or, you know,

moving maybe to other european countries or to, you know, we some ukraine and i haven't found those people are determined to stay there. people are determined to fight for, i'm not prepared to negotiate at this point. and i think this and, you know, referring to what's happening now as there was 2 interesting 2nd world war. it's also kind of an urge from the delicate going this case from ukrainian politicians to attract more attention to what's happening and to actually call and europe in partners to deliver what they promised. because they've promised a lot of help here in berlin, who had this and conference and reconstruction of you on the crane and like an enormous amount of money was promised there. but there was also a message from our president zalinski saying that we haven't seen a cent of this money. and this way great that you are promising this in your want to restore the queen after the war. but we need this money. and this decisions right now, and sadly from what i'm hearing from our correspondence, there is that, you know, this support is being delayed. now you said that would you hearing from,

from the correspondence is also that the morale is still high. people are willing to endure even the hunger and the cold. now, after nearly a year of fighting a many serious incidents have come to light and being investigated by now. let's have a closer look at the allegations. a list of atrocities that keeps growing un investigate to say there is mounting evidence of russian horrors in ukraine, including torture, sexual violence, executions and mass graves in places like boot shop. now a crime scene reports by amnesty international indicate that moscow has also abducted ukrainian civilians, even separating children from their parents, only to give them up for adoption and russia. many also consider rushes bombing of critical infrastructure ukraine to be a targeted attack on the civilian population which constitutes

a war cry. people are currently at risk of freezing to death. in light of these serious accusations calls the growing louder to classify russia as a terrorist state. that's exactly what the european parliament did this week and voted overwhelmingly in favor of such a resolution. but the us is not willing to go that far. president biden believes that this classification could set back unitarian efforts in ukraine and jeopardize potential peace negotiations with russia. now, what constitutes a terrorist state? one definition of terrorism is the systematic use of violence to create a general climate of fear in a population. and thereby, to bring about a particular political objective of can, does russia fit the bill here? sounds like, oh, normally the you and other countries in the west would qualify

a terrorist, a state of state that spawns as terrorist organizations. that is at least a classical definition of that or take the case of iran and the case of his bola as a terrorist organization that was defined as a tourist organization and iran is supporting it when we now oh, want to define a complete state as a terrorist organization, or as a terrorist state than it by, i guess, biden, this is correct in saying this might go too far because we still have a need to discuss with that state. it's not a body single person. so there's a difference. and we of course, we'll have to find out finally, who is, who is responsible for the violations of human rights or for one of many turn law. but that goes too far because be still iffy. demos are complete state. we will have difficulties to negotiate later. and we needed and us needs,

it needs to have to keep the nuclear balance. of course, they want to have a successor treaty of the new start treaty and they will restart the strategic dialogue. so i find that is a, maybe a moral impetus behind that that can maybe satisfy the own needs. but for practical purposes, i think it's not very realistic and we will have to speak again. i think there are a couple of points to, to break down from both kinds comments. firstly, yes, he's right. that typically the state sponsor of terror is referring to a state that sponsoring other terrorist groups. not necessarily a state undertaking their own terrorist actions. in this case, however, russia fits both bills. this is not the 1st time that russia has been up for consideration as a state sponsor of terror. they have already been known to sponsor the iranian i, r g c group. for example,

they have sponsored and supported has bella and even given them direct military and financial support in syria. so russia as a state sponsor of foreign terror is already on the cards. and now with the war of aggression in ukraine and the terrible war crimes they have committed. and as per your definition that you mentioned earlier, they have clearly been committing directly acts of terror to terrorize the ukrainian population. now the practical considerations that was con, refers to from the american calculus is important to consider. because by labeling russia state sponsor of terror, the sanctions would be extended not only to russia, but also to any other companies around the world doing business with russian entities. and this could get very complicated very fast. thus, the american hesitation, however, i disagree with the concern that labeling russia state sponsor of terror would somehow mean that we are no longer able to speak with russia. on the contrary,

this would be a very strong signal of deterrence and, and incentive for the russians to back down and come peacefully to the negotiating table by saying you will not get off this list until you lay down your arms and leave ukrainian territory to do i don't agree, i think we will not be in a position to collect my russia into a submission. this is unrealistic, in my view. and if you're a demo knows a complete state. i don't speak about single persons who are responsible for this and that. then you will have difficulty later on to speak openly to that state and it will not be a just a negotiation. we are the one side or decides what it sorry, where one side decides on rich terms. they have done to settle. finally, it has to be a negotiations on equal footing so it's no other way out. otherwise you cannot get strategic balance and that this is an american interest. what do you mean by

demonization of this country is committing genocide. what is being demonized? prefer this country is not committing genocide. i think we should not be easy. we should not easily apply this word genocide. there are certain terms for genocide you can say, and i would agree on that. there are committing war crimes. yes. committing moby crimes against humanity. there is the crime of aggression, of course, as such, riches all their or crimes defined in the statute of the internet called off or justice. but you cannot say it's a general side in the sense of the international definition. and i think that it's all going on long, but i just will push back this one last time because the definition of genocide is acts committed in whole or in part against a people to destroy their national and their cultural identity. and this has indeed taken place in ukraine having lived and worked previously in rwanda. my familiarity with genocide statutes is perhaps not as a lawyer,

but certainly deep enough to to know that the russian crimes in ukraine do in fact, qualify by law as genocide in that me. now let me address one question or 2 natalia, the reaction and what will the reaction in russia be, what would the kremlin care at all? well, i think i was precisely want to say that, that, you know, i think by now cameron has not caring actually what has been cold and how it's been cold. especially these are in a european union commission label of terrorism status at this point in time. it doesn't mean anything in practical terms for kremlin it's they condemn their actions in ukraine, but this is no news or for another for putting off of best called m, like mary as a hero, for instance, has reacted to this in, you know, typical kremlin way of you know, laughing, they're faced about saying, yeah, and this, see your opinion is a states for supporting stupidity or something like that. so it shows as they have

the level of communication, there is no, no, no, this diplomatic and talking about this. whether i think if for united states as, as you mentioned, it's the very, it's very different thing appears to steady faith would list. right of the terrorist is because it has some legal implications and i think that would be taken very seriously and in practical terms. but i don't think it will force them to either come to the table of negotiation or not come. i think a what can actually move russia to go to negotiation is the situation in the battlefield in his longest and both rash or actually both sides have something to achieve in the battlefield. there is no need for them to go to the negotiation table. sadly, that's the are the now the next topic that i would like to come to, i because the tactical picture on the ground is changing for both parties with winter coming. many expect that dropping temperatures will subdue the fighting them despite icy temperatures. fighting in ukraine continues undiminished.

a contentious battle is taking place in bar mood. located within the don bath region. the small town remains under ukrainian control, according to ukrainian saucers, russia ascending inexperienced recruits to fight that the small town has little strategic value at the moment. but after abandoning have sought, the russian army seems willing to risk anything to achieve even the slightest victory. however, experts suspect that the freezing temperatures could soon slow down the pace of fighting and russia in particular, would current be benefit from a break that would allow time to rebuild their armed forces. but that is precisely what the ukranian army wants to avoid. their keeping up the pressure but ukrainian president lensky admits that the cost in human lives and resources is enormous.

which side now which side is profiting more from the current situation and the, the with the winter and the cold temperatures that are coming. i can you think, can ukraine keep up the momentum millet on the, on the battlefield, that the have at the moment and, and push, rush of further the grain has achieved a lot during the last months, the 1st big defeat, the russians were in front of give that was ready and it was based on the complete misunderstanding and misperception of the are creating an identity and unity and the capabilities to fight probably the rational sorts everything but what happened in 2014 would be repeated. that crane army is not ready to fight in some parts even go to turn sites on the other hand, in the hock, if you saw in capability of the russian forces in terms of leadership. also in

terms of forces and strengths, of course. and we saw a lot of initiative on that were creating inside cassandra, a different case in kept sun is on the, on the west bank of the river. at napa river could not be kept by the russian side because of the logistics that could be easily distracted. because they only 2 or 3 very narrow bottlenecks over the river. and that was a calculated retreat. so i would not be to a bishop on that and say this is in the initiative of the grant me insight. for the moment i feel we did not. we have not yet reached the strategic turning point of this, or the russians have still a lot of reserves, maybe not high quality, but in masses. in tanks, in terms of artillery, in terms of person that they are creating inside will be more and more dependent on west, on hope, because a lot of off on production capabilities has been destroyed and there needs this rest and assistance. my question is,

what are the risks on the rest on slide in political terms, but also an economic times i'll be really prepared. i'll be able to go to war production in the west, which would be needed if we want to sustain that. that's all. yeah. in terms of the russian will to keep on fighting. ah, is it, is it still there both in civil society? well, and political will, is there, i think russia went so to save our bank when they started this were, and you know, there is no way back. there is no wait, what is going to say? oh, sorry when miscalculated. now let's let us retreat. no, he, he went all in and even though they're the goals of this, an operation as he calls us, has been changing alongside when they saw that keith was not possible to capture. now we'll concentrate on don boss, but they'll need to at least get some get something to, to declare victory at home. so i think they, the will, is there, well, there is there up military of ability. and now we've seen that there for the new recruits of, well at least 3 or 300 solvents or new combatants. l quality of them is very

questionable thing because those are people who may be or not. so what have aided to go into army. most of them haven't received a lot of training with here. a lot of stories about people going to come was just after you know, to weeks of training just after shooting couple of times, the guy with a gun and the willing to actually not fight and go away. or like maybe even a defect to the queen of that is big there. but for instance now i think it was because also campaign, maybe not in them in the media, but i can tell them channels. there is a lot of this, you know, process pro war bloggers have gaining this momentum and a calling for more and more aggressive moves now in ukraine. so now has now i guess graham has to balance between the we are on the battlefield and this, you know, need of this like small group of very walk and we're defenders are, were activists to lake somehow balance this to sides. is there any reason?

no air, jessica, for the west to change that arc. all if anything, there's a reason for the west to increase their aid to crane. but as voice gun pointed out, we're facing right now a real serious issue on production and supply. of course, there is still room for growth in our support of air defense and in particular, we still have not seen delivery of and b t's of main battle tanks on modern pattern battle tanks being delivered to ukraine. this would be vital in preparation for the spring offensive to give you cranium troops. the protection in terms of armored personnel carriers as well as tract tanks to be able to deal with the winter and spring mud conditions in the in the on coming offensive. we need to help ukraine keep the pressure up on russia, not allow russia to regroup this winter and come into the spring fighting season, stronger. but to do so, would require a strong investment across all of nato to increase our production so that our own strategic domestic reserves can be maintained in stock. because of course,

china will be watching very closely to see if and when western military resources are spread too thin. this opens a window for them to potentially put pressure on and attack taiwan. so we're facing a difficult season. next year we'll bring a lot more difficult choices, but one thing is clear. ukraine cannot be allowed to lose. russia cannot be allowed to win. this is in all of our strategic interest across the free world. that brings me to my final question for, for, for this program negotiation stop. when both sides come make any progress. really. that's a natural point to start negotiations. let me start with you. welcome and briefly, what do you think? we are close to that stage? maybe at that stage, at the moment we are not chose because as i said, the turning point of this war has not been reached yet. on the other hand, if i look back to the 29th of march of this year, there were some, quite

a good proposals in my view on the table. saying that you will not join nato. that is, something's a landscape put up there and communicated. the 2nd, the status of the crimea peninsula will be postponed by 15 years and negotiated in the mean time, and there will be a direct negotiation between the 2 presidents on the future status of the dawn bus . of course, everything under certain security guarantees, though this was to my mind, the best proposal so far on the table, the most realistic one. both sides have turned away, put in has an ex territory, which of course slammed the door because the great indian aside cannot negotiate additional territory. and we are not there yet in military terms. so can i interrupt you this time is running out of natalia?

let's come to you 1st. how close are we to negotiation? well, i think why not, and she very close if there was a point when it was possible, or maybe i don't know, i don't think i think it was possible actually then, but we are so far into the fighting and i think we have lost so much and i think less prepared to negotiate. now looking back as what has been, how the war has been going on with all the crimes we've been discussing with all their new investigations and international and everything. how this war is going on . i think there was less and less an agreement on the ukrainian side to actually negotiate with wouldn't just go with your take, you cannot negotiate with terrorists. and russia has acted as a terrorist states, even if they don't carry that legal distinction from the united states. if booting is allowed to gain any net benefit from his invasion of ukraine, then we all have lost. and this is the thing that must be not allowed to happen. it must not be allowed to happen. that's a good final statement. that's it for this edition off to the point. i hope you

enjoyed our discussion and if you watching us on you to please let us know what you think in the comments below many, thanks to my panel and all, all viewers. thank you very much and see the next thought going to the point with

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