oh, he is the son of jewish holocaust survivors. oh, how walking that i was able to build your present berlin is architecture is a celebration of democracy and an architect of emotions, or daniel stuart's december 25th on d. w. as temperatures plunged, the war in ukraine is entering a new and brutal phase rushes attacks on critical infrastructure amount to weapon, ising winter as ukrainian civilians shelter and bombed out houses without power and water and soldiers in flooded trenches faced heavy shelling. what will it take for one side or the other to gain advantage as fighting slows and conditions worse and we're asking russia versus ukraine,

who's better equipped for the winter war with welcome to to the point, it is a pleasure to agree to our guests nicko langa is senior fellow at the munich security conference and was previously chief of the executive staff at the german defense ministry. also a pleasure to welcome thomas ve gold. he is a military expert and a freelance journalist with a popular blog covering security affairs. and joining us virtually from london is over rica franka of the european council on foreign relations. actually currently joining us from france. i'd like to begin if i may with you, thomas and in history. winter has famously worked to russia's advantage, helping them repel napoleon hit or would you say winter will also help the russians

this time, while i doubted this time, because we have to see, yes. russia had an advantage against the polio and against the germans and 2nd world war. on the other hand, if you remember the finish winter war in 1939, it was a different story and the fins had the advantage because then you will the terrain and you wind turban, you how to deal with it. and here we have the ukrainians, who also have an advantage because they know the terrain and their knows the situation. so as is old equation, no russia knows how to win a winter war wouldn't necessarily apply at this point. what are the 2 key factors if you had to identify just to what are the 2 key factors that essentially decide who has the advantage under harsh conditions? well, one obviously as equipment who have a bit better wind kit, we're talking about clothing here, just simple things like cold weather gear jackets,

trousers. all the stuff you can buy. and the other point of something you can't buy, that's moral. the fighting morale of ukrainian seems quite different from the russians because you have ukranian troops fighting for their homeland. while on the other hand, you have russians who have been conscripted partially into this war or fighting on a foreign front who are not fighting for their homeland methods quite a different. and we want to come back to talk a bit more about morale later on with nico president, putin is warning now that the war could be, i quote, a lengthy process. meaning clearly he's not seeing russia backing down any time soon. does that mean that this winter will simply freeze things in place literally and figuratively? or could it, in fact, prove decisive for the outcome? we are and the lengthy wall ready?

which means that also do industrial aspects of supporting the war become more important. and i think that is what put in a sitting it, he thinks he can, i'll produce us. but when it comes to the winter, i personally believe fighting will continue. and to historic pictures we have in mind about winter ward, the are not a playable, applicable to this war in ukraine to black c caused us not siberia. and even if it is caught firm, for example, ukraine has a lot of records on wheels. they will get more more boy when the ground is frozen. so we might even see more activity, because i think the ukraine is trying to use the advantage. it's hearse and he was to momentum, florida even in winter. very interesting and a rica, if equipment and morale are the 2 crucial factors that would seem to favor ukraine in fact, as a, as we heard. but is there reason to doubt that that might be the case going forward?

apparently, russian air transport planes have been seen making repeated trips to china and their speculation that they are picking up gear and equipment for russian soldiers . could that change the calculus here? oh, yeah, it is quite difficult to tell a what's going on in russia there on the situation, of course is that ukraine, it's a lot of support from the western russia and has fewer friends in the world. but we've already seen, with support from iran, an iranian drones and alike m support from north korea, bella roost. and now potentially china that this could, could make a difference. that being said, i think in terms of equipment as long as, as, as the support from the, the west continuous ukraine can have an advantage. i'm here, but it is overall relatively difficult to town, kind of how deep russian stocks are and how much they could get from elsewhere. one thing is certainly clear conditions will get worse before they get better. rain and

mud will give way to snow and ice slowing down operations, rendering both soldiers and civilians vulnerable to cold and hunger. let's take a closer look at what that means for ukrainian morale. so far they find in freezing temperatures, soldiers on both sides suffer from heavy shelling while also fighting against hunger, cold and moisture. the suffering of the civilian population in ukraine is comparable . that sheltering and bombed out houses and apartments, but the will to preserve seems unbroken. few who woodard so it is better to suffer a cold winter to freeze and starve as long as the russians aren't here with the russian bombings often cause water, electric and heating shortages. what are the enemy wants to use when to against

us? so we need to use cold and deprivation as a means of tara. oh cool. well we have to do everything to survive this winter. yeah, no matter how hard to avi, the russian army is still blasting away with fighter bombers and helicopters at their disposal. but western intelligence services predict that winter will bring more quiet to the front, a time for both sides to for kill weapons and ammunition for the spring. he will be more resilient this winter russians will ukrainians. let me pass that question directly to nico and certainly we heard grit and determination. they are in those statements from people in ukraine. but calves mayor has just been warning of an apocalypse, if russian shelling of civilian infrastructure continues as it as it has. what

would that civilian suffering mean for the morale of the troops? was us of all the resilience of the ukrainian population is just amazing. and it is alt standing. also do networks of ukrainian sway, improvising at a moment to sustain the temperatures in the big cities in ukraine. i think that is a great strength of ukrainians that also can inspire us. but um, i think we should take seriously what we truly glitch was saying, what also the bosses of the ukraine and energy companies are saying that are the repairs might not be possible quickly. and that there might, at least temporarily de need be to need to evacuate parts of to population or to have them safely there over into especially elderly and, and children. um, in terms of the front lines, i think it doesn't change. change much erm der ukraine, an armed forces, d i experience in winter, the war started in winter. we should not forget that they have built their

fortifications and it seems to me that they are, are also more disciplined and winter war when it comes to soldiers. fighting is very much about discipline of keeping your dry kid from your wet kit or for having your fortifications clean and without water. and to me it seems ukraine, ukrainians have a advantage there that is also connected to the moral a that has been mentioned. and also i think ukraine wants to push further this winter. they do not want to lose time. they want to push the russians out of the territory so they will use also to winter for that. thank you. at the rica shelling is far from the only weapon of civilian intimidation. that putin has been deploying a un report document, a whole array of war crimes, including torture, rake abuse of children. what impact is that likely to have on morale

in ukraine? and of course, this isn't new that these tactics are being used. what's the historic record? do they work as those who deployed them and hope? i think all these atrocities that we're hearing about just reminds european or ukrainian soldiers what they're fighting for that you really cannot leave territory. and whereas of the ukrainian population under russian occupation. so i think in the way it, it reinforces the will of all ukrainians to fight. but of course, you know, these are terrible and horrible attack that we also am in this, as you said, this has a long history in and russia, in particular, has used these types of weaponized in the winter, the cold hunger, especially if you cry in the past. we know this, this well, but yeah, i mean, overall it does reinforce, i think the,

the will to fight. we've just seen in the clip that you shirt early earlier this woman who said, you know, we can starve and we can freeze. but as long as we aren't on the russian occupation and you know, we're, we're happy and this is, this is what we're fighting for. but it depends on how, how bad it gets, and how many people might actually die of fino cope. thomas, i'd be interested in your thoughts on that point and then also as well, it's often said that russia could use the winter pause to regroup, and to recuperate from the pretty severe losses that it has seen in recent months. can ukraine, do you think, deny it? that chance, well, they can try, i'm not true. they're really can. of course, russia will use any pause in the fighting to beef up it string certain to transport material to transport troops. and whether you crane really as

a chance to deny them the trans, that's not sure. yet. on the other hand, we've seen a recent days that ukraine was able to struck inside russia, which means where the shift still a minor shift that but there might be a shift, not in the front line but, but in the fighting. so ukraine might have more chances than it had before. let me ask you to talk a little bit more both of you in the studio, 1st of all about those strikes because they were carried out by drones. and as far as we know that it's a bit schroeder. yeah, certainly this is now a full scale drone war. is that right? that's right. we've seen drones in various sizes and in all different tasking from the tree burrows stuff you can buy of, of ebay or whatever up too old soviet drones up to modern,

rather modern iranian drilled. so there's the full scale of unmanned warfare introduced in this war, or because the ukraine, we think, as we just said, has used drones to strike deep into russian territory. both our military air fields and a refinery. is that, do you think likely to provoke escalation on the russian side? chancellor schultz said this week that he actually believes the risk of an escalation and a nuclear strike has decreased. and this is something that is of enormous concern to our viewers. as we can see from some of the comments that are sent in to our youtube site. so i'd be curious about your assessment. so i think the risk or the fear of an escalation, especially a nuclear escalation, is always there and, and needs to be taken into consideration. however, i mean, 1st of all,

this isn't the 1st time that ukraine has a stroke within russian territory. actually, i think than the 1st month of the war, there was a ukrainian attack in russian territory which didn't lead to that kind of escalation . now, this attack was closer to the front line than the attacks and in recent days, but nevertheless. and similarly, there were the attacks on the bridge to crimea were also there was a lot of speculation at this would be at the moment where russia escalates further and it didn't, i'm, it's difficult to tell because in the end it is peut putin who decides whether or not, and how to escalate. but i think what ukraine really wanted to do with these attacks in russian territory is to send a signal and a signal to both russia and the west. the signal to russia is, of course, you know, if you start a war, you can't, you know, this cannot be cost free and you can't expect that this doesn't influence you as well at home, and we can strike in your territory. so that's an important as signal and the other

signal was to the west and the west has been somewhat reticent are delivering systems or that can strike within russian territory. exactly because of the sphere of escalation. and basically ukraine is now showing that they can do it with their own equipment, whether it's will soviet equipment as it has been speculated, or newly developed equipment. so there's this kind of signaling in both directions at through these attacks, but it is true. again, we are, we aren't entirely, we cannot be entirely sure with regard to the fear of escalation, but, but if that would were peering out of russia at the moment. i don't think that that this type of escalation is, is imminent, nika, who has the advantage in a drone warfare. is it possible to, to say, when you look at the 2 sides, whether one or the other essentially can use this to greater benefit? and 2nd question e, you sanctions are now aiming to choke off rushes,

access to drones. would you expect them to be able to do that? well, 1st of all, i agree with everything that has been said. the drawers are only present in this war, and they are very often also used as a support. so it's not only a drawn warfare. i think it's a combination of low taken, high tech that we are seeing and even infantry soldiers would not move forward. i think on both sides with also having drones in the air, a having recognizance about the area. it's difficult to say who has an advantage, but what we have since seen is that ukrainians were able to innovate during the war to improvise, to come up with new ideas and did, they are very good in using all the digital possibilities that where they are to have a better understanding of the situation and that helped them would shaping their operations. so i would see a little advantage on the ukranian side there. i would even extend your point upon

to sect sanctions m both sides are using a lot of civilian drones at a time. i think it would be a board move to just to buy off all the civilian draws from the market to give them to ukraine. so that russia came up, get them. i mean that would be the size of the support that is needed or do m drawn warfare has an aspect i think that we also can learn from in natal or do ukrainians are able to do things that we are not capable off. and that is also something that should be looked into when we look at every ukraine's capacity, thomas, they actually have been known until now for speed and surprise. we heard a nigger say earlier that he doesn't actually see the war. it's slowing down as much as some people seem to predict. i'd be curious whether you would agree with that or whether you think actually ukraine will lose some of that advantage that it has. and i do agree, or i think in the winter will not really have an effect. of course,

when to always flows down, operations, mud her and all this stuff will slow down. we will see whether wheeled vehicles will have an advantage when the ground is frozen. how much track vehicles will have an impact? ukraine has both russians have bowls. m a russia has some problems with the logistics when roads are closed. so we'll see how this works out. my impression is ukraine is a bit ahead. on the other hand, russia has vast stock pilots, not only of ammunition, but also of old materials. so you might say, well, it's an old track or it's an old tank, but still if you have thousands of those quantities, making a difference, i think that's a main point. ukraine has partially better material,

but limited quantities. and that's also quick to the west, how they can replenish, so quantity. absolutely. and, and on the subject of yes i, well i wanted to go to limited quantities but in a different area. they munitions, because you have said nico, elsewhere, that the war could come down to a competition over munitions. and we are seeing reports, including from us intelligence that russia is facing shortages of ammunition. so would you say that it, those are confirmed and how does it play out that some western countries are also seeing munition shortages, including this one, germany. what will that do in terms of influencing the, the, the fighting, put in seems to believe that he can all produce us, not in all areas, but in the area of artillery. ammunition that he is relying on very much. and it is the question whether ukraine is using the material and ammunition faster than the partners of ukraine are producing it. ukrainian defense industry is destroyed

through airstrikes and it is on us earth tools support you cream. and i think even the signal of scaling up production capacities would already send a communication to put in that we will do whatever is necessary and he should not calculate that over time he can gain the upper hand again, i think that is very important. also, it's not only the production of the ammunition itself, it's also the communication visa we put in. and of course, we have not been ready for a full scale war in europe. and stock piles or have not been prepared. i think that's not only true for germany, i think that's true for many countries, and i think we must a, just a no at no acknowledge that the idea of producing everything just in time and, and bring it moberly to places everywhere. it's not compatible with crisis prevention and with being prepared for a war and disaster, i think that's not only in the military part. there's also just of input. yeah. and,

and what that clearly indicates is that russia's weapon, ization of harsh winter conditions will pose new demands. not only for ukraine, but also for the western allies. for now, nato seems determined to do what it takes. but could that change as europe faces its own winter challenges? ah, the ukrainian soldiers should be well equipped against the cold, with hundreds of thousands of special cold protection jackets, caps and waterproof boots and from german and canadian inventory. it's a good start that now what ukraine needs most, all power generated to cover black counts and to repair equipment for bombs, our power plants. nato has begun to supply these late dollars or providing unprecedented support. this will fund urgent normally through support including fuel and generators. militarily,

nato is focusing its aid on and defense weapon systems. the u. s. and france have promised descended von systems to shoot down russian aircrafts, guided missiles and rockets. in addition, nato has given gemini clearance to supply the patriot air defense system to ukraine . but germany is hesitating once again. will nato be able to help ukraine through the winter? and let me pass that question directly on to o rica and a rica europe. germany have shown relatively a high degree of public support for ukraine's so far. but could that change if in fact the energy crisis, we're sincere, there's talk of power outages. people are facing dave danger of freezing and could that change the political will it could change the political will. and of course, that's what russia is speculating on now. right now i would like to emphasize that

germany has actually supported ukraine quite substantially. and it was often too slow or to quite a lot of discussions before germany actually did something which is which is problematic. but when you look at the numbers and the, the kind of support a germany has provided it actually is very substantial. and we shouldn't forget that and the support in the german population remains high. and now of course, you're right, we're only entering winter and the colder it gets in the more expensive energy the cons. and that the more this reaches kind of the, the german households that support could go down. but right now i'm relatively optimistic that european support is gonna hold for, for the time being. and thomas, if i can come to what we heard there in the report about germany and, and the patriot germany has in fact often been criticized for excessive caution.

this is just the latest in a theory wrong, a bad one. yeah. well, that's what i want to ask you because we heard secretary general started back, he was in berlin and said, actually, germany is doing more than many other allies. is why does journey many have such a bad rap? well, i think germany is pretty good bed when it comes to communicate what it's doing. we have a weekly list of what has been delivered and what is pledge to ukraine. and somehow the government is not not really outspoken about this. there they were born to obscure detailed, sometimes with a claim for security reasons, that could be much moral support. i'm not true, but the reason is maybe not to, to anger russia or so. but on the other hand, if you see the list that it talking about, so about how it's us talking about across canons, talking about the air defense systems, some things happening. so talking about this patriot systems. well,

germany has 12 of those which are integrated into an, a 2 hour defense. so it was a pretty bad move from poland to suggest to have this over to ukraine. so this is more polish, german in fighting and not really something to help you create nickel. if i come back to our title, russia versus ukraine who is better prepared to hold out during what could be a long winter? what would be your answer? my answer is ukraine, but we are not observe us and this ukraine has better prepared to put it will be able to push felder m to dr. russians alt if we get to support right. and will we get it right? i think the german population would allow the government to do more and always 2 measurements. did we do much? yes, we did too much, but the other measurement is, does ukraine have what is necessary to militarily wind this war? and dare we need to do more? thank you very much. thanks to all of you for being with us today and thank you to

our viewers for tuning in. check out our youtube channel and tell us what you think about the program. pleasure to see you. goodbye. a with ah.

a with oh cool. with i wish i could have done more save you a just a click away. find out best documentary on you to

really good morning to see the world as you've never seen it before. dr. now, to d w documentary, will you become a criminal, a ready news with hackers, paralyzing the tire societies? computers that are some are you and governments that go crazy for your data. we explain how these technologies work, how they can go for and how they can also go terribly. watch it now. i'm new to ah

ah, a just ah ah. all we can be the generation that ends it for good malaria must die. i millions can live

ah ah, this is dana with news line from berlin. iran executes a protester for participating in the recent anti government demonstrations. 23 year old moss and shikari is hanged. despite this video on social media shows, people are still taking to the streets and protests also coming up after months and a russian prison. brittany griner is finally on her way home. the united states secures the release of the basketball star from russian custody. but for freedom

comes at a high cost.