son of jewish holocaust survivors working that i was able to build to, to present berlin because it's very closely related to me as a person. his architecture is a celebration of democracy and piece won't building. the biggest thing in the world is the spirit checked of emotions. architecture is kind of this free. believe me. stuart's december 25th on d w. ah. my gosh, this week on conflict zone is over now in foreign policy expert who has spent most of her career analyzing vladimir prudence, russia. fiona hill joins me from washington, where she has advised 3 west presidents and co author to book on poodle. her testimony and the 1st trump impeachment trial made her a household name. bear. she warned. of the danger potent destabilization efforts

post to western democracy. now, as potent pushes forward with his invasion of ukraine, where does she think the war is heading? he doesn't see the sacrifices his people are a great tragedy or something to be factored in here. so he's prepared to keep pushing this to the fullest extent, and thus is the problem that we're contending with was this person's plan all along or have dec, ethan power changed him? and what sort of russia and ukraine could emerge? fiona hill, welcome to complex out. thanks so much, sarah. great to be with you. ukraine says that it is bracing for a renewed russian offensive in the next 3 months. they think that some 200000 fresh troops are being prepared and that moscow could have another go at keith. what do you think food and strategy is? look, i think that's a reasonable assessment and certainly it's well founded on the part of ukraine to be so cautious about this. because we know that back on february 24th of this past

year 2022. that was putin's intention was to take care of pops by menacing. here with that huge long column of armored vehicles and men that were sent in that direction. and anticipating that village may zalinski, the ukrainian president would flee and that the government would fall. but it's certainly the case that as we know, that didn't succeed the 1st time around. but it's certainly the case that putin has still got his sites on the capitulation of ukraine, one way or another in this conflict. and if he thinks that having another goal here would be successful, then he will certainly try that. i think it's also signalling in terms of the, the large number of troops that are a must on the border of bell roost. putin's recent visit to bella luce, to meet with the bell russian president, alexander lucas jenko. that putin remains determined to press ahead with this war,

and not really his mindset. he has not completed what he set out to do in february of 2022. and he's determined to see this through to his end, not to our end. and in fact, i, in the past month we have seen, couldn't suffering, humiliating defeats, in fact, in ukraine, russian troops being incapable of seizing and holding large parts of the country reserves decimated at the front line. one of them describing the situation as being thrown into a meat grinder is potent losing the war. and in your opinion, is he having trouble admitting it? look, i think this is all from our vantage point. i'm not sure that vladimir putin sees this himself, and it may also be that he's not getting all of that information that you're reporting here. and in fact, that the information that we're getting is not being transmitted to him. and obviously they might in fact see western reports on this is propaganda and it's also part, you know, for him of the informational comes to the presenting

a very bold and confident frontier as well as have to bear in mind that we're not entirely sure what it is that brought to me, who knows about this? well, in the 1st instance and what his attitude is towards the information that might filter in to him from western reports. you know, like this for example. but putting has also made it very clear throughout his career that he's ruthless and that is determined to play a price. there's been a recent long report in the new york times in the united states about the war. and they actually are citing someone close to put in the kremlin, saying that putin is prepared to sacrifice up to the full 300000 russian forces that were recently recruited or drafted for him. he doesn't see the sacrifices his people as a great tragedy or something to be factored in here. so he is prepared to keep pushing this to the fullest extent and thus is the problem that we're contending with. so then let's look at where the ukrainians are coming from. for example,

because bloomers, the landscape says that the vast majority of ukrainians want to de occupy all of their territory. and that is everything that russia took in 2014. and in the past year, is there any scenario, any scenario at all where you think that moscow could ever accept that? well, 1st of all, let's just look at it from the ukranian perspective. they are fighting for their lives. literally, their families lives, their territory, their independence and sovereignty. and any country that had been invaded would do exactly the same. so we have to put that into the picture. first of all, imagine everybody who is listening to this. if this were you, what would you do? you would want to fight to get back everything that you absolutely can. now whether that is realistic or not as something that we're going to have to see, but you know, sometimes was have to be force and country has to be defended on your own lives or

on the line here, which is exactly what's happening in the ukrainian perspective. what the russians are fighting for is basically the vision of vladimir putin of an alternative version of european history. so all of europe is at stake here in terms of our territory, integrity, independence, now borders, particularly after world war 2. so there is actually a realistic scenario in which we do not accept rushes claims to ukrainian territory . we cannot accept them in the international law. we cannot accept them in the un assembly for example. and it may be the ukraine over time regains that territory, but perhaps not always on the battlefield. so there's many different ways of thinking about this. and i know that in europe right now, there's a lot of concern about this. this is the 3rd great power conflict. in essentially in europe, looking at will wall one and we'll walk to it might be very uncomfortable from a german perspective to think about this. but in this largest sense,

we've said since world war 2, that we're not going to permit this to happen again. and certainly there's a lot of responsibility on europeans part and especially the united kingdom, the united states, for guaranteeing ukraine's independence and sovereignty and territorial integrity. when you quinn was pushed to give a nuclear weapons at the end of the cold war, we promised them that nothing would happen to them. certainly you can united states and back in 1000 into full and what's happened, they've been invaded. so the messaging from what russia is doing here, put to everyone at risk, probably not just a how about the messaging to the domestic public as well within russia? because what seems quite clear is that the mission has gone far longer than the russians expected. how can moscow sell this invasion and you know, potentially any, any deal that might come there after as a win and claim it mission accomplished, for example, and have those goal post moved in recent months?

would you say yes, that's all pretty complicated. i mean, in terms of putin's own goalpost, they have not moved, but i would say that for the average russian absolutely they have, they were told this was a special melcher operation that would be over in a very short period of time. most russians were told that even russians around the kremlin, the whole idea was that within week to 2 weeks that but you can capitulate, and that the whole relationship between ukraine and russia would be result. that's not the case. most russian thought that they were watching this more from a father. they weren't implicated in this, that they weren't responsible for this. since the, basically the decision by putin to expand recruitment into the military. that's not been the case of at all. we've seen since february 1 1000000 russians leaving those people who obviously were post the war didn't want to get drafted. so 1000000 people directly affected and all of their families and friends by this war, we know that in many quarters the war is not popular. there are lots of russian

business people who have been affected by this. all of the knock on relationships between russia and the region have been affected. countries like kazakhstan and armenia, as well as moldova, for example, all reassessing their relationships with russia. as a result of this, and we also see an opinion polls that more russians are in favor of ending this war . but of course, they are asking on what terms. and we've seen putin are also put to one side regular meetings that he has with the press and the best basically big meetings that he would have a televised with the public. they're completely reassessing that it's still possible to put into declare victory in some fashion at this juncture, but it doesn't seem likely that he will do so. so i think this is a question that can't be answered now, but that will be evolving as we get further into 2023. and i think what you were referring to there is when cancelling his annual press conference, the 1st time it's been canceled. and in a decade,

and i'm wondering what you thought when you saw that for example, and if you read anything into it with regard to how secure putin is today, or whether he's in danger of losing power. i think putin's problem right now as he no longer looks infallible. so perkins power was based on several things . first, the power of the constitution because he's not a member of a political party, but it's a constitution that gives him so much power as the president thomas. like, as are honestly a monarch. he has pretty much unchecked power and influence, but that's also then based on his own performance and put, is always judged by how we perform before in the past. remember, he's been in power for 22 years now, and there's been real peaks and his power and authority. and that's also based on the 3rd pass by the claim of the population. his popularity and that is empty and flowed. and it's really great heights. after the annexation of crimea,

back in 2014 and still remains somewhat high. but if there is a perception that, that popularity is flagging among the people around and then the tensions and the passion you see, right. and that brings me to my next question because you have met members of the government and most of the government, in fact, is there anyone who you think would move against him? it's hard to see that right now. i think the number of factors, if it's very clear that the population is turning against him, but also that he's losing his touch among the regional power structures. i mean not by the former soviet republics and then further afield that he's getting pressure from the chinese. the indians, south africa, other countries that have been, you know, somewhat supportive of russia in the past. so there's a sort of feeling that the international tide is turning against putin as well. there may be pressure then put on, put in to rethink. right now does not have examples of that, or evidence of that we seeing things we're seeing people criticizing the conduct of

the war. but so far that hasn't translated into out, right, condemnation of putin. although there's lots of murmurings, you know, that filter out into the press on the back channels. so again, it's something we have to watch very closely. i wouldn't count, put not to this particular juncture, but it's very clear that this war has not gone in the weather. the anticipated more than 20 years ago when he came to berlin, he gave a famous speech in german before the one to start, where he said the following is a difficulty creek is for by the cold war is over. with what we know now. was it a charade to mask the master plan, bent on empire, or has prudent and his aims changed over the years and power? i think it changed over the years in power as he became more confident of the position. and as he started to really think of himself as the manifestation of the state, i think we can look back to this to 2007,

2008. the famous speech that he gave at the music security conference, where he expresses his frustration with russia not really getting its way in europeans, national affairs and not being able to have a veto over european security. his demands that the united states withdraw from europe, for example, in 2008 at the infamous, bucharest summit for nato when both ukraine and george are a given, an open door, couldn't be closed then that ukraine is not a real power. it's not real country, and that part of it belongs to russia. and since then, if we start to trace his statements, we should have been much more attentive to this. couldn't start to talk about a different version of russian and european history. and one in which he craned doesn't exist, and russia is dominant, and russia gets back the land that it lost after the collapse of the russian empire as well as the soviet union. he's written articles in did site is written articles

about an essay is about ukraine and russia being fused together. and frankly, this is where our responsibility lies. we never pushed back after putin long article in did site. there was no facial response from the german government. all the other european governments, we've been always allowing his narrative to narrative to stand and not pushing back against them to the point that he himself then believes that he is right. and that his interpretation of russian and european history is the correct one. where or wrong? well, let's talk about what was coming out of the german government. in fact, during president, thanks, i to stein meyer said after the annexation of crimea, that lasting security in europe can only exist with and not against russia. in fact, he thought that this was not part of a master plan that putin had. so in the context, i'd like to ask you because he's part of a school of thought that especially at that time believes engaging russia and hoping for change through dialogue and trade was the right approach. in hindsight,

what do you make of that approach? was it naive? well, it was naive to her rule out the things that couldn't was saying at those times that run country to that viewpoint. it's not to say that dialogue or trade or any of the outreach to russia was wrong. but we needed to have a very clear ride hardnosed assessment of the kind of person that vladimir putin was and of his views and to take those into account and figure out what we were going to do with them. so dialogue is also an instrument. it's a vehicle for pushing back on views that are a country to ours and we should have called him out because it was far too much of a assessment that this really was meaningless. that this was just for a domestic audience when it wasn't. and it's very clear and 2014, the annexation of crimea was a violation of every rule that we've had since the end of world war 2. it was

a violation of things that restrict enshrined in the united nations general assembly and have been multiple resolutions since then. calling russia out on this, and that is the problem. we have failed to recognize that russia has been at war with ukraine since at least 2014. so then let's fast forward to today because so far, nato allies in recent months and other partners of ukraine, have in praising themselves for their unity. but you know, talks over the latest round of e sanctions. for example, have been described as acrimonious by diplomats. how concerned are you that their unity is already starting to show signs of cracks? well, i am concerned because i think this really reflects the lack of realization of the situation that we're all in. whether we like it or not, vladimir putin has declared war on the west, and he's done this multiple times. all we have to do is to go back and assess all of the statements. this is not, my analysis is not hyperbole. on my part, little vladimir putin himself is said again, if we go back to 2007 and the munich security conference couldn't put us on notice

that he is asserting a different view of europe. and on many occasions, including men to meet you med vetter, who was president at the time, came up to berlin and made statements about new european security. where she's always been trying to push for different view, which it has a veto, an essay over how europe is configured. and now we've gone from a cold war to a hot wall. and the battle over the feature of the ground is in fact, battle of european security. we have not realized us, and everyone is always reacting to russia in russia's narrative. i also believe that we have to engage with russia and figure out where russia place is in europe, but we cannot deny the fight. but russia and vladimir putin has declared war on us . and he made up very clear on multiple occasions, most recently, again in september, on september 30th when he annex the territories of the don bass and separation hassan in addition to crimea,

he made it very clear. then there's complete denunciations at all time on the west, and that includes europe and the european union and nato and the united states. and frankly, also, japan, south korea, many of our other partners. and we have to realize us, poland, the baltic states, many of the countries, the scandinavian audit countries have realized this fully, the united kingdom is realized it. and it's sinking in here in the united states. and the problem, as many european countries are in denial, and that's why it's back ramona's. they're trying to, frankly, put their heads in the sand like ostriches. and pretend this isn't spinning. well, i'm sorry, this is happening. you say that it's thinking in, in the united states, and in fact, the u. s. has been the single biggest supporter of ukrainian defense and humanitarian efforts we have to mention when we look on a per country basis. when we, when we look forward as the u. s for paris for the 2024 presidential race should europe and ukraine take us support in the war for granted. look, i think, you know,

part of the problem is that every single country is having a domestic debate about this because, you know, unlike well, well one will want to, this isn't just clear cut people are of course, you know, having a hard time processing exactly what is happening here, as i said, it's thinking in certainly at the top levels of politics here in the united states, even behind the scenes in the republican party. when you look at the members of congress who are not the most vociferous, and the best for former president, trump, for example, the professional stuffs and certainly in the population at large. i've spent them the last year back and forth across the united states, talking to audiences. and people realize what's going on here. of course, they would just like to find a way out of this. they would find a like, like to find a resolution solution to this wall. but there are just remain a lot of popular support for you credit for what's happening here. and the key element is strategic communications. it's how we talk about it,

how we talk about what's happening, how we find out of this. so that's going to be the key for continuation of us support. but behind the scenes is a lot more support than appears to be in terms of the rhetoric and the debates about this. ok, because, you know, we all know that, that you famously address the us congress during the 1st impeachment trial of donald trump. and at that time, one of the things that you did you chastise lawmakers for helping moscow to so discord by entertaining a fictional narrative about ukraine interfering in the 2016 election. you say you're having a lot of conversations with people, but you know, fundamentally and, and at their core has america and it's politicians learned. it's lessons that trump will try a, so chaos and exploit it, excuse me, will put that, put in. we'll try and so chaos and exploit it. apologies. well, that's a good appropriate for i didn't slip actually because, you know, obviously there's a big debate about the future of former president trump at this moment in the united states. there is the january 6th committee that is basically referred,

you know, some of it's reports the department of justice. so there's going to be a lot of political upheaval around the 2024 campaign, which you can be sure will also center around ukraine itself. because of course, the 1st impeachment trial trial for president trump. former president trump was related to his phone call to present several of them is a landscaping current trying to extort him to open up for corruption to investigations into now president biden, and his son hunter by them. so you can be sure that there will be a lot of political chaos around this. but president putin has not stop trying to so carol's, of course, either in us politics or in german politics, which is also a major factor. you have, you know, 3000000 people in germany, you speak russian and who are often watching russian television. we continue to be in an information wall for information more with us right now. and russian propaganda is office is getting traction. the reason they are asking these

questions is precisely because of this, because there is a lot of dis information about the, the war in the was origins. we have to remember it's brought to me who decided to invade you credit. and he's trying to blame the united states and nato and the western europe and ukraine for the fact that he's invaded. he's trying to say he was provoked. he's on to say that it's our fault. actually, it's his decision. and it's all tied up in his be with himself as the czar or the moderns are of russia and the manifest destiny of russia to reclaim lands. he's claiming that history only started in europe in 1783, when crimea was annexed for the 1st time annexed for the 1st time by catherine the great. he's trying to basically deny that prior to that, 1783 dead that all of europe as to before that didn't exist. so we are involved in history was with vladimir putin and also having to contend with the

fallen on slot of russian propaganda and its b, who's our own governments. to be frank about this and to push back in your bucket call, put in a survivalist. can you survive this? right, she, he can photon is a very capable of adapting and he can survive if we let him survive in the sense of being able to prevail in this particular information more. and this more in ukraine, it couldn't gets put into pressure. of course, i also wouldn't be surprising given this massive strategic miscalculation that he's made. but he's also quite capable of being so ruthless and playing so dirty that he can get live on, you know, to keep on basically prosecuting this war for some time to come. so a lot of it depends on as to everybody is listening to this broadcast, to all of us, you know, have a responsibility to speak out against it. and also to the responsibility lies with

all of our governments to figure out a way to end this war. that doesn't just give vladimir putin exactly what he wants to call to action. there you are. in moscow, you had a front row seat as the soviet union was collapsing and late eighty's. what does the future look like for russia with or without putting when there's competence? look, this is a very difficult time, and it's a tragic for russia because one man has completely turned the clock back on everything that russia was achieved since the dissolution of the soviet union russians. frankie, up until now we're living their best lives. anybody has been to moscow can see that and the rest of the country as well. and who has turned the clock back here. in some respect, he's trying to turn the clock back to 17 eighty's, but he's turned the back caught back in some respects the 1950s to the stalinist era in terms of the persecution and repression. and many russians who saw their feature as being and twined with europe in so many respects, thinking of all the russians who live in europe are worked in europe. all the multinational companies that were best in europe, that trade,

that you reference before. those economic ties, those have been destroyed, some of them will never come back. there are many companies that will never contemplate investing in the russian market again, even if sanction lifted, it will be what it was before. and russians are now hated by ukrainians for generations to come. and russians now look like pro is double parias in russia, in the way that, you know, honestly, the germans felt back in the 1940 isn't an immediate aftermath of world war 2. it's going to be a long word back. it's not impossible because you know, hey, we are, this is don't develop, we know that countries can recover from this. but it's a lot of hard work. and that's what we're going to be facing with russia again, which is starting again to figure out how we engage with russia in europe, in a new european trade, economic and security context context moving forward. and how we rebuild ukraine and how we rebuild those relationships between ukraine and russia will be a major problem. europe has changed as a result of this,

the world is changed. there's been not gonna effect globally from this war. well, one of the inflection point in european and world history where, you know, the future is still somewhat uncertain and has yet to be written fee on a hell, we have to leave it there. thank you so much for joining us on conference and thank you for your time. thank you so much sir. i really appreciate that. ah ah ah, with

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