us lawmakers have released 6 years of donald trump's tax returns after a long legal battle to keep them private. they show he paid only $750.00 in his 1st year as you, as president and no taxes at all in 2020. all right, well that's all from me for now. don't forget and you can stay up to date on all the latest news on our website, d, w dot com. and you can of course, follow up on our social media accounts. i'm probably the s imprint from the team here. thanks for watching. take care. i'll take it at the top of the next speaker. i'm you can that i want. that's hard and in the end is a me, you are not allowed to see you anymore. we will send you back. are you familiar with this? with the smudges with lions as of the what's your story?

he wasn't, i was women, especially victims of violence in a lot of them take part and send us your story. we are trying always to understand this new culture. so you are not a visitor, not the guests. you want to become a citizen. in phil migrants, your platform for reliable information. mm hm. ah, 2022 was a dye, a year for the global economy. the, the optimism for post coven growth was shattered by russia's illegal invasion of ukraine into driving up food and energy prices worldwide. dependent on russia for gas and well, europe was especially hard hit. china's strength, 0, coven policies,

or factories and ports shut down another disruption to global supply chains hurting the rest of the world. yet more interest rate rises but pushed through by the fed and d. c. b, swerving to avoid an economic crash. so what does 2023 hold the i m f says the euro zone could narrowly avoid a recession, but not all economists agree. the rise of a i could call millions of jobs into question. alongside the conflict in ukraine, china's tension with taiwan appears to be growing. india will overtake china to become the world's most populous country. this new year could see more economic upheaval than the last. i'm ben fossil, and welcome to this d w business special. to delve deeper into the divide in opinion over way the global economy is headed. i asked star economist,

serial rubini. why his out though for europe of a long and protracted recession is so pessimistic in comparison to other focuses. well, in the case over europe and the euro zona, the consensus is that would be a shorter than shallow recession, maybe capital court, those started thing, are we that the 4th quarter in the 1st part of next theater followed by a recovery? i think that the energy problems of europe are severe, very high bank ratios. inflation is going to be more than that. why their european central bank expects that i have to raise rights more than the markers are expecting. and we've a high loads of private than public that the interest rates is gonna lead to a more acidic anomaly. contraction in may also lead to financial means, the ability for the barring costs, both of them are big sectors and the private sectors in the euro's on. so i'm more pessimistic than they on science is about the degree and the severity of the

economic contraction. that the eurozone is going to face sap next year. how much longer do you think a recession could last for europe? well, de consensus is that our social, my last only a couple of course there is what they call a short been shallower, samsung blend bunny like out of them. but i think we've barely any increase in the unemployment rate. i think that they are essential might continue for most of next year, all of the 4th quarter of next year, as opposed to just a couple of quarters based on the arguments that the high that ratios are still negative supply shocks. there's a significant price of energy still high that the bands of europe on energy em. i think that the conflict between that your ration ukraine unfortunate, is going to get worse before is going to stop the lies. so that also geopolitical factors are gonna affect negatively business consumer and invest those confidence.

what about a quicker shift to renewable energy you brought that up? just then wouldn't that be something that would help spur on growth in, in that sector at least, and perhaps solve some of our problems when it comes to climate change and energy and security? when it's easier said than done, you know, for the last year, the share over your bowling global energy has gone from about 8 to ampersands while they're one of fossil fuel has been falling from 80 those award. so 78 percent there is investment done in 9 renewable, but there are all sorts of bottlenecks. by the way, a lot of the green, the methods are needed to essentially producer clean energy, whether it's called bare medium kaba. others are now subject to what's called good inflation because they use a lot of energy. and with the price of energy being i, than the ability of producing those types of renewable energy is also constrained.

and if you want a faster transition to renewables, you have to sharply increased carbon taxes. the average turbo tax to achieve the ari's like order or goals should be $200.00 per ton. today, the average up around the world is only $10.00 and politically that is not can 3, it's going to go from $10.00 to $1.00 that you find the thing that police can response to high fuel prices is to reduce carbon taxes to reduce your taxes that the use of things and they to switch from fossil fuels to renewables. so you need to give price and market incentives. that's not happening fast enough. now another of the major threats we've all had to deal with is the pandemic, which is said to be over according to german biologists. as far as europe biggest economy goes, surely that's going to make a massive difference sometimes. so well, we don't know yet whether the news transit october 19th that will become virulent

the way on the current was. but the reality is that up low my plan that makes, i'm going to become more at current. they're more severe. think of it this way. we did that and then in that with a spanish through 1918 and we didn't have any of the early meant. he made this. and since then his web had a chevy. sars of mares z as in boy. busy last y m floor birth through. ready coffee 19 monkey box, why that's the case. it has to do with global climate change. as with this, there are the equities them of animals and we encroach on them. then those animals at that pathogens like dangling bats. and now there's are closer livestock and close of human beings. that's why you have these 0 on optic transmission from animal to humans. that phenomenon is gonna become more severe. and as that is about climate change, that fatima frost, for example in siberia is the frosting. that's gonna release tons of methane and maintain as 10 times getting our gas emissions then say seo tool. and then i

actually a bacteria and viruses have been frozen in the tundra there in the panama frost for thousands of years. and some of them have been discovered recently. ready so that could be even free here, versions of on them is coming out. and that for pandemic and global climate change go together. and the cost of dealing with the next on them is going to be huge. where they were trying to prevent the exam they or where we tried to damage control it exposed like we did the coping 19. so we have to be getting used to the fact that on them it got to become more frequent, more virulent morrissey. they're more costly and china is still battling the pandemic. but what sort of future role will china play on the global stage to thick? well, chinese, a rising power, but is a power that is referred to as a revision. his power that together with allies arise shop iran, north korea,

and now even pakistan challenges, they can amik social, political trading, financial, monetary and geopolitical order. that the u. s. europe and the west, great then asked than war were to our systems are essentially one of liberal democracy market economy with social welfare state and projecting power globally. but in a friendly way, china is a political mother that these outdoor italian become more outdoors, guardian, on their shoes in pain and economic ma that this strictly of state capital is becoming more so. and geopolitical right now, chime is flexing his muscles, wanted they corporate taiwan, wants to dominate their jail and germany in asia and song. and therefore that wesley china, unfortunately, are on a collision course on many dimensions. what about the vulnerability of something like artificial intelligence? it's something that china is pushed to old, new heights will a i, b,

replacing more and more jobs in 2023. as far as our, our mobility goes white collar jolts, as well as a factory workers and all sorts of jobs. when it's gonna take time is not a matter of only 2023, but it's clear that a i machine learning robot think alto mation is leaving. first the displacement of routine jobs that are low call, not a metal factory than of more cognitive jobs. that can be slice in a number of tasks that can be automated, and those are white collar jobs. but now we have a chapter g, p, t, and similar kinds of tools. even some of they created jobs. and i can be also eventually gradually replaced by the machine. so these, that logical innovations increase the economic pie, but they also increase income. and while the inequality, because there are capital intensive skill by us and labor saving. so if you own

that machines are the cap number on the machine, you the while it's in the top 10 percent distribution of skills education or human capital, probably the i makes it more productive. but if you are a blue collar worker, a white collar worker with low, oh, or median value out of this industry is increasingly your jobs and your income is going to be challenged by a i machine learning robotic animation. what am i going that direction of effectively? permanent, permanent thinking, model object, i'll unemployment because of a, i semester of any huge technological and economic changes ahead of us. a lot of doom and gloom though. is there anything positive that you can leave us with her to finish off the interview? well, in the case of europe, i think that the positive thing is that the european union kept together faced with that tract of ross shark shirley. in spite of some of that division,

there has been a common european policy. secondly, the eurozone in spite of its problems, is moving their action of greater or is sharing and that, and there's also new members now joining like for asia in the future are the ones. and from a security point of view, i don't think that europe is gonna arrive 20 in the pan, then tap strategy. i would, tommy the way mike ron and france wanted by that thing that now nate is becoming strong anger. sweet them and no rejoining is going to make, make, are stronger. so at least in europe, euros on european union, and nato are becoming more cohesive in their way that stabilize as they europe young calling them, given the charm. and just that a calming, especially from russia that's open, he is a positive you are from well famous economist, serial rubini, thanks for talking with us about the global economy. great be real estate.

and you can find the full interview with serial rubini on out youtube channel d w. use. i'm paying for solon. i sit in business with you 3 imagine rebuilding a green house in every seller and energy plans and an every ruin housing. what is being designed to day in the metropolis as of tomorrow.

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