college for many poor people in the capital. but organizations like viji carnita make life a bit easier for some of them are going to be not. it will be back here again tomorrow morning, waiting for a cup of hot tea. all right, well that's all for me for now. deed of you business is up next with my colleague, ben physician. and don't forget, you can stay up to date and all the latest news on our website, d, w dot com. and of course follows on our social media accounts. i'm pablo val. any, as for me in the team here in berlin, thanks for watching. take care and i'll see again at the top of the next are the question of the questions about life, the universe and everything. do you know the answer? i will then give it here for the to the answer to almost

everything our documentary series with whatever raising and ground breaking on his chin. can we go into the afterlife? are we getting dumber and dumber? how can we feed every one questions for the present a future emp heads filled with ideas? so get really for the brain update. 40 to the answer to almost everything starts january 15th on d, w. ah . 2022 was a die a year for the global economy. the early optimism for post covered growth was shattered by russia's illegal invasion of ukraine into driving up food and energy prices worldwide. dependent on bratia for gas and oil,

europe was especially hot hit. china's strength, 0 cope with policies or factories and ports shut down another disruption to global supply chains. putting the rest of the world. yet more interest rate rises but pushed through by the fed and d. c. b. moving to avoid an economic crash. so what does 2023 hold the i m f says the yours own could narrowly avoid a recession, but not all economists agree. the rise of a i could call millions of jobs into question. alongside the conflict in ukraine, china's tension with taiwan appears to be growing. india will overtake china to become the world's most populous country. this new year could see more economic upheaval than the last. i'm ben fossil, and welcome to this d w business special. to delve deeper into the divide in opinion of a way the global economy is headed. i asked star economist, muriel rubini,

why his outflow for europe of a long and protracted recession is so pessimistic in comparison to other forecasts . well, in the case over europe and the euro's honor, the consensus, there will be a shorter than shallow recession. maybe a couple of corpus started thing, gary, that the 4th quarter in the 1st that article next theater followed by a recovery. i think that that the energy problems of iraq iris, severe, very high bank ratios, inflation is going to be more or less than that. why are they european central bank expects that i have to raise rights more than the mark as unexpecting. and we have a high loads of private than public that that thing is interest rates is gonna lead to a more acidic atomic contraction in may also lead to financially is the ability for the barring costs, both of their ob, exact doors and the private sectors in the eurozone, so i'm more pessimistic than they on sances about the degree in the severity of the

economic contraction that they euros on is going to face up next year. how much longer do you think a recession could last for europe? well, they're consensus is that our social, my last only a couple of course there is what they call a short been char laura savage on plain vanilla garden, but i think we've barely any increase in the unemployment rate. i think that they are essential might continue for most of next year, all of the for a quarter of next year, as opposed to just a couple of quarters based on the arguments that, that the high that ratios are still negative supply shocks. there's a significant price of energy still high than the bands of europe on energy. and i think that the conflict between that your ration ukraine unfortunate, is going to get worse before is gonna stop the lies. so that also geopolitical factors are gonna affect negatively business consumer and invest those confidence.

what about a quicker shift to renewable energy you brought that up? just then wouldn't that be something that would help spur on growth in, in that sector at least, and perhaps solve some of our problems when it comes to climate change and energy and security? when it's easier said than done, you know, for the last the of the share over your bowling global energy has gone from about 8 to 12 percent, one to one of our see to you all as been falling from 80 those award, so 78 percent there is investment done in 9 renewable, but they're all sorts of bottlenecks. by the way, a lot of day green the met, valves are needed to essentially producer clean energy, whether it's called bare medium kaba. but others are now subject to what's called good inflation because they use a lot of energy. and with the price of energy being i, than the ability of producing those types of renewable energy is also constrained.

and if you want a faster transition to renewables, you have to have sharply increased carbon axis, the average carbon tax to achieve the ari's like order or goals should be $200.00 per ton. to day, the average up around the world is only $10.00 and political that is not count 3, it's going to go from $10.00 to plan that you find the thing that police can response to high fuel prices is to reduce carbon taxes. to reduce your taxes that the use of the incentive to switch from fossil fuels to renewables. so you need to give price and market incentives. that's not happening fast enough. now another of the mega threats we've all had to deal with is the pandemic, which is said to be over according to german biologists. as far as europe's biggest economy goes, surely that's going to make a massive difference sometimes. so well, we don't know yet whether it be new strands, october 19th that will become virulent,

the way on the current was. but the reality is that up upon that makes, i'm going to become more at current and more severe. think of it this way. within that and then make in that with a spanish through 1918 and within that any of the early meant he made this. and since then his web had a chevy. sars of mares z as in boy. busy last y m floor birth. ready coverage 19 monkey box. why that's the case. it has to do with global climate change. as with this, there are the equities them of animals and we encroach on them. then those animals that, that pathogens like dangling bats and out there are closer livestock and close of human beings. that's why you have these 0 on optic transmission from animal to humans. that phenomenon has been, i become more severe. and as that is about climate change, that part of my frost, for example in siberia is the frosting. that's when i released tons of methane and maintain as 10 times getting our gas emissions then say seo tool. and then i

actually a bacteria and viruses have been frozen in the tundra there in the panama frost for thousands of years. and some of them have been discovered recently. ready so that could be even free here, versions of on them is coming out. and that are for pandemic and global climate change go together. and the cost of dealing with the next on them is gonna be huge . where they were trying to prevent the exam they or why we're trying to damage control it exposed like we did the coping 19. so we have to be getting used to the fact that on them it got to become more frequent, more virulent morrissey. they're more costly and china is still battling the pandemic. but what sort of future role will china play on the global stage to thick? well, chinese, a rising power, but is a power that is referred to as a revision of his power. that together with allies arise shop iran, north korea,

and now even pakistan, challenges they couldn't make so. so political trading, financial, monetary and geopolitical order that the u. s. europe and the west. great that asked than world war 2. our systems are essentially one of liberal democracy market economy with social welfare state and projecting power globally. but in a friendly way, china is a political mother that these outdoor italian and become more outs already, guardian, on their shoes in pain and economic model that this strictly of state capital is becoming more so. and geopolitical right now, chime is flexing his muscles one today. corporate taiwan wants to dominate their jail and germany in asia and song and therefore their west than china. unfortunately are on a collision course on many dimensions. what about the vulnerability of something like artificial intelligence? it's something that china is pushed to all new heights will a i b,

replacing more and more jobs in 2023. as far as our, our mobility goes white collar jobs, as well as a factory workers and all sorts of jobs. when it's gonna take time is not a matter of only 2023, but it's clear that a i machine learning robot thing out on a shawn is leaving 1st. the displacement now go routine jobs that are low, call mary, middle factory, dan of more cognitive jobs. that can be slice in a number of tasks that can be automated, and those are white collar jobs. but now we have a chapter g, p, t, and similar kinds of tools, even some of they created jobs. and i can be also eventually gradually replaced by the machine. so these, that logical innovations increase edition of skills education or human capital, probably the i makes it more productive. but if you are a blue collar worker,

a white collar worker with low, oh, or medium value added industry is increasingly your jobs and your income is going to be challenged by a i machine learning robotic animation. why am i going that direction of effectively permanent, permanent thinking? well, object are unemployment because of a i. so mr. of any huge, technological and economic changes ahead of us. a lot of doom and gloom though. is there anything positive that you can leave us with a to finish off the interview? well, in the case of europe, i think that the positive thing is that the european union kept together faced with that tract of rash shark shirley. in spite of some of the division there has been a common european policy. secondly, the eurozone, in spite of its problems, is moving their action of greater re sharing and that. and there's also new members

. now joining black for asia in the future are the ones. and from a security point of view, i don't think that europe is gonna arrive to any independent tab strategic. i would talk to me the way my crohn and france wanted by that thing that now nate is becoming strong anger, sweet them and no rejoining is going to make, make a stronger salt as it is in europe, euros on european union, and nato are becoming more cohesive in their way, that stabilize as they european continent given the charm. and just that a calming, especially from russia, that soap and he's a positive you are from well famous economist, serial rubini, thanks for talking with us about the global economy grade being rated state. and you can find the full interview with ariel rubini on out youtube channel dw news. i've been for solon, boston business with

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and governments that go crazy for your data. we explain how these technologies work, how they can go in for. and that's how they can also go terribly. watch it. now on youtube. we need to talk about climate change. does that make you want to switch off? why and how can we change it? how exactly is global warming affecting agriculture around the world? the results of one study renaming but 1st.