in the 16th century, it meant being a captain and setting sail to discover a route. i'm a race lead to military interests, a race linked to political and military facilities, but also to my financial and adventure full of hardships, dangers and death. magellan journey around the world starts january 19th on the 1st week of 2023 isn't even over. and the new year has barely given the world time to catch a breath. russia continues its senseless war on the ukrainian people. a devastating wave of coven 19 is burning through china. and the iranian regime continues to violently punish its citizens for demanding basic rights. the times are turbulent

and the ripple effect can be felt all around the globe. 2022 was a challenging year for the defenders of freedom and democracy and it appears that 2023 will be no different to night. we dare to take a look ahead. i'm nicole frilly him berlin and this is the day. ah, goodness, no one turns no one's turn to stop, renew school war. russia is not a term to slow up. the actions are taken years workers. there were a year, and they're not living at all. i sing, we shoot, react determinedly if china word towards jack taiwan and we shoot replay, strategic ambiguity with strategic clarity. obviously,

inflation has gone through the roof. people are struggling to give their heads above water the deserve a pay rise. the worked all true. the pandemic, the economy is likely to slow in 2023. so it's not all of positive story for markets and for consumers overall. also coming up hope for millions of people suffering from alzheimer's disease as you as regulators approve promising new medication. it's definitely a very important milestone because it's a fur struck but it is not acting soon. symptomatic lee, it's clearly deceased modifying and the circumstance that showed in a face free trial. i'm a positive outcome in all i'm really and secretary oh welcome to the show. it's good to have you with us. well, we're not even

a week into this new year, and it's already starting to look a lot like 2020 to the war in ukraine. grimes on and new coven berry, and sweeping across the u. s. while dictatorship populism and a liberal democracies seem to be gnawing at the very bones of our democracies. so what lies ahead for our world in 2023 every year, the eurasia group sticks its neck out and tries to predict the biggest risks will face in the coming 12 months. here are only a few of the problems they see bubbling under russian president vladimir putin as the villain of the piece for many since his botched invasion of ukraine. so what will happen if his country becomes the world's most powerful rogue state, to weak to win, too strong to ignore? china is maxing out on changing, paying as the chinese leader re shaped the country from the top down. but how communist, how nationalist and how stable is the world supplier of just about everything. for

decades, the united states saw itself as the proud exporter of liberty and stability around the world. now it's algorithms, anti social media and artificial intelligence are turning into prime. global disruptors made in the u. s. a bay. but it's not just politicians and countries. water is at low ab, whether for drinking, watering crops, generating power, or transporting goods. for more and more people, water is down to the last drop and the man behind this outlook joins me now. in grammar is a political scientists and president of the your asia group. he joins us tonight from new york city. mr. bremo, welcome to the day. you say this year's risks are the most dangerous you've encountered in the 25 years. you've been publishing these analysis. how bad is it? that is the most dangerous because it's driven by actors that are the least constrained and have some of the worst information. so we,

you talked about several of them in the opening and i, i liked the way you, you put it quite a bit. i mean putin, vladimir putin made the biggest misjudgement of any major leader on the global stage in decades when he invaded ukraine. and he did that in part because he's consolidated so much power in russia in his own hands. he's surrounded by. yes, men. he gets bad information and there are no checks and balances on what he does and as a consequence, the world is much more dangerous because he's made this tremendous mistake. well, the fact is that there are a number of aging dictators and tech grows around the world. where you can say the same thing applies to them. they're really powerful. they're surrounded by yes, men, they don't have checks and balances. that's where she's in. thing is, it's where the iranian supreme leader is. that's also where the people that are driving a lot of these dangerous algorithms that are undermining democracy. and those are the single biggest issues that really concern me in terms of the impact of the

geopolitical environment this year. but you, as many analysts around the world are most concerned about russia. he's the number one on your list of risks for 2023. now, as photon stands with his back against the wall, you know, he's in a war he can win, but won't quit. how concerned do you think we should be about a major escalation of the conflict this here? i think that we have to be very concerned and if we is germany, it's even higher than in the united states. and the reason for that is because we're not in a cold war with russia. we're in a hot war with russia now. it's a proxy war, and nato is not fighting it directly. we're fighting it through ukraine. but, you know, you see the more advanced military equipment that's being provided to ukraine literally, every day this week, ukraine can defend itself, and russia cannot win this war on the ground. the can't win this war in the air. and yet, russia's position globally is deteriorating. every day its economy is contracting,

nato was becoming stronger, and expanding. ukraine itself is going to be one of the most powerful military forces in all of nato, and, and diplomatically the russians are becoming isolated. so the fact that putin sees this as a war, that he is losing against nato on the ground. and ukraine means that this is increasingly going to affect nato states directly in what shape and what form you talk about asymmetric warfare cyber attacks. can you elaborate a bit on what we should be bracing for? sure, well, if you think about who has been the most dangerous rogue stayed in the world before russia, it was iran. and on the one hand, iran drove the abraham accords and brought these countries in the region closer together. but it's because of the threats that the iranians were making. it was espionage, it's drones strikes, ballistic missiles, strikes, it's terrorism. it's proxy war all of that against countries in the region. so if

russia's becoming a rogue state, that's what we're talking about. it. cyber attacks, fiber attacks, pipeline attacks, it's espionage, it's disinformation. all of these things that aren't just the focusing on ukraine, but increasingly, or focusing on nato states. frontline, nato straights like poland will be most vulnerable, but more broadly. i'm 2023. i don't that unfortunately. i don't think we will be able to still only talk about this as a russian war against an in ukraine. i think it's broader than that. i want to move on to the other items you mentioned on your list. you're right in the report that this year will be a tipping point for the role of disruptive technology in society. what should we be preparing for their the thing that surprised me the most, we call this weapons of mass disruption. and it's the 1st time in 25 years that i

haven't written on one of the, one of the pieces of the report. that title was written by chat g p t. and an a i bought when we, we fed in what the risk was about. and it brought in 5 seconds, came up with the title. this is the year when the turing test will be broken when human beings are not able to differentiate on line between what's a bought and what's the human. and that's not just a distraction in the hands of rogue states and bad actors that will drive political polarization and violence that will drive conspiracy theories. it will deeply undermine democracy, especially weaker democracies around the world. so the reality of generative artificial intelligence has gone from an interesting, you know, potential productivity, boone to suddenly, also one of the world's most dangerous geopolitical risks. and using that,

for example, to disrupt a stock market to undermine corporate players. like you saw, i mean imagine a mean stock like game stop that isn't instead of being driven by a few people on or read it board instead or being driven by massive numbers of bots that are actually faking human beings. it's a much more immediate and explosively dangerous impact on the marketplace. plenty of risks ahead will bring you on again to talk about this year's greatest opportunity that some point in river other of topper if on 23. thank you so much for your time. i was gonna see aah! alzheimer's disease is one of the leading causes of death in the world and a source of heart ache and despair for tens of millions of families around the globe. and the memories start to fade. there's little that can be done right now. there are next to no effect of treatments for the disease, but that could soon change a promising new drug develop by japanese pharma company i sigh. and you as biotech

from biogen, has just been approved by years regulators. oh swimmers, disease was 1st diagnosed in a woman named august to tear over a century ago. it's the most common cause of dementia. in general, it's expected that to a 3rd of all cases are due to all times disease. but for a number of reasons, cures, or even adequate treatments for alzheimer's, have proven, stubbornly elusive to hasn't been a turbo. people didn't talk about it. second on the funding, we have $15.00 to $20.00 times less funding for this disease area. go back to cancer, alter we have equal numbers about 5055000000 in the world. and 30, it's very difficult. this is a brand disorder. and as the most difficult organ of the body has alzheimer's disease progresses, clumps of protein called amyloid form in the brain of the affected patient. another

protein called tao, which usually stabilizes neurons instead begins to form tangles like those here in blue. that also plays a key role into generation. there is a picture and metaphor for it, so the emily pathology is the trigger that of the gun. but finally, the bullet that killed suddenly top of the cheat mckenna, mab, the new old timers, treatment slows, the formation of plaques in the brain. it's an artificially produced antibody that works by binding to m a. lloyd. the medication has broken new ground in the field. this is a big success, and this is the 1st, this is the 1st trial with the proven result in a phase 3 clinical trial. i think the science is hotter and so this is opening the door. i would say it's a milestone. it's definitely a very important milestone because it's the 1st druck that is not acting. some

symptomatic lee, it's clearly deceased modifying and the circumstance that showed in a phase 3 trial, positive outcome in all family and check the kind of map only slow the loss of cognition. it didn't halted completely. still. it's a promising step towards potentially stopping or even curing this debilitating neurological condition. and the man calling the drug on my phone in the report he just saw join me now dr. stephan shilling. he's the head of protein and drug biochemistry at the found hopa institute in the city of holland valley here in germany. welcome to the day and tell me how big of a game changer could this be? yes, so it's, it's a deep, it's a game changer because it's, as i mentioned already in the, in a teaser. it's the 1st rock that's certainly not reaching the market that this a d. c, multi fine for that really affects the pathology. but it's not only that single

drug, it's also a very important signal for the entire field. we have currently more than $100.00 trucks in clinical trials that are tested to treat our times the seats, and there are many in the field. what about she also about rocks that are potentially cheaper and this brings a really real boost to the research in the field that other therapies that are targeting amyloid a really yeah, a problem. the success will also as a sl economy and there's nothing. and this is very important to note is that we have opened the wall for combination therapy and future by that approval. who exactly is this drug for? so the trucks will be approved for early firms to seize patients. so this means people that have mild cognitive dysfunction, memory, short term memory decline,

and significant change so that it's still a thing that is on the dba. it's so the clinical trial that has been published just recently indicated that received the con them up brain d, mom. so brain swelling and also micro hemorrhage as little brain beliefs with that truck. that's not very surprising because many of these antibodies also others in depart showed that side effect. and bits of the con, him up the number of the side effects. what are the percentage problem? no, this is something that it's not fully understood. it's typically the side effects are reversible, but there are very recent reports also of 2 potentially each truck read just so we have to look at that in for the child and the future. and also after accelerated

approval. certainly this will be definitely a matter of further investigation that how about equitable acts as an annual course of treatment is estimated to be priced between $9.00 and $35000.00. will patients around the world be able to afford this drug? yes that's, that's a big problem and that's certainly also coming to the point of affordability. those anti bodies are typically very pensive trucks and i certainly expect that this will be really also a very pricey truck. it will be certainly as approved in the us. now as the pros, there will be a deep weight of needed medicare or whether it will be reimbursed by medicare, the former truck out to helm that was approved also last year, which was removed from a market was even higher price had higher price. so there will be at the bait, and i expect that it will be available to the north american and potentially later

to the european markets, but other regions in the world. i have my doubts to. we only have about 20 seconds, but i do want to know if, if the f d a moving ahead with this approval might encourage other countries to move towards the swift approval to i would expect that i think the company will be also apply in europe and my will be also approved. dr. stefan shilling from the found her for instance, you thank you so much for this insight. thank you. the mexican authorities are portraying it as a huge win over the world's most powerful drug cartel. but is it really security forces in the city of coolio? khan and mexico have captured a video guzman, the son of the notorious drug, lord, known as l chapo authority. se 10 soldiers and 19 criminal suspects were killed in

the operation as cartel members trying to prevent the arrest. even the cities airport was caught up in the violence. terrified air passengers duck for cover rush. their plane comes under fire during takeoff. outside coolio can airport and national ramos captured the mormon to mexican air force plane was shot at herald of my mouth, destroyed the frenz. i'm super nervous. he and hundreds of others took shelter in the airport. as the terror unfolded. the thought on the i was filming with the armed forces arrived here at the airport in they were welcomed with shots. we tried to leave walking towards a friend's house for them, but we couldn't because they were shot into plane had to take off again in all as a salient orchestra ro. unbeknownst to them,

their cities most wanted man had just been arrested, unleashing a violent backlash. car tail foot soldiers set up road blocks and waged war on the police as they try to free their boss right below the rules of life yet. so what is being done? we have 7 state police prisoners injured. we knew that their military personnel also injured, were still working to control the situation. one of our low, oh, video guzman, lopez, no one as the mouse was previously arrested in 2019 barton, an embarrassment to the mexican authorities. he was later released after the cartel did battle with federal forces. authority see his rearranged lands, a powerful blow. she died in june for the reverse arrest was the result of 6 months of reconnaissance and surveillance work in the area of influence of this

criminal group. this where it was known that carried out elicit activities yet. okay. you've ok. i was like give either this elizabeth officials confirmed guzman lopez was slowing to central mexico by nightfall. he was behind bars, transferred to a high security prison outside the capital. his chaotic capture, major coup for american unmixed 2nd law enforcement. and joining us for more as laura carlson, she's the director of the americas program at the center for international policy in mexico city. miss carson, welcome to the show. there have been violin seen since the arrest of a video guzman and the city of calia con. what's the situation now? right now, as mentioned, there are a confirmed 29 people dead on both sides. the identities have not been released. there could be more, there are many people that are hospitalized and severely wounded in the confrontations that took place after his after his arrest. there are at least 5

other mexican states that are on alerts, especially border states. that they're expecting something of a cockroach effect. or the violence to spread over into their own states or taking measures as well. it looks as though most of the roadblocks have been lifted according to local reports, however, it's expected that the violence will continue. we know this because of the pattern of violence in other situations. similar situations throughout the history of the war on drugs here in mexico. when a drug lord is taken out in what's called the kink pin strategy, there's almost inevitably an uptick in the violence both localized and eventually on a national level as it causes a fragmentation, a re mobilization of the cartel. it causes turf wars. and so we're actually expecting that there will be more violence to come. he allegedly helped run the

sinaloa cartel for his father, al chow opposed. of course serving a life sentence in the u. s. sinaloa, is the world's most powerful car. tell how big of a blow is guzman arrest for them. we have to put this in the context. first of all, it's very important to mention that video goes man. the son of chapel is not a major leader in the seen a lot of cartel and the sooner la cartel now has major rivals. it doesn't have the, the hedge a monic strength that it had in mexico in the past. and so this blow on the level of the cartel hierarchy is not the highest ranks of cartels. he's not the one who was calling all the shots. in fact, his older brothers are really in a far more powerful position as well as other leaders that were left within the similar cartel. so in that sense, we don't expect to see an immediate dismantling or weakening of this in a low cartel. in fact, when we look at the overall effect of an act like this of the rest of the deal,

man, we expect it to be negative, negative for public security and safety in mexico with no substantial or perhaps even none whatsoever effect on the float on this address to the united states, and this is simply because this war on drugs model of taking out the drug lords while leaving the structures, including the huge demand in the united states in place, doesn't work. it never has worked anywhere and certainly never worked in mexico since it was launched at the end of the year, 2006. and so we really are many experts. and those of us who have been studying this issue for years here in mexico are not expecting a positive outcome from this arrest. unfortunately, what do you make of the timing of this arrest? because joe biden is set to visit mexico in a couple of days. i think the time is it is everything. the secretary of defense

mentioned that they've been working for 6 months on intelligence, but everyone knows where video guzman was. he never left since his arrest in 2019 what we're seeing is that the, the arrest in 2019 was actually a success he was captured. and that was the mexican government that made the decision based on a calculation of widespread violence. and the cost of the civilian population to let him go. the decision in retrospect, was a good. what if you're putting priority on human lives rather than on this cat and mouse game between the cartels and the u. s. and mexican governments over the past years, which as i say, as lead to no positive outcomes either in the, in the traffic in of illegal drugs or in public safety in either one of the countries. so this was a timed to be really

a gift to joe biden. president joe biden has been a drug or promoter since his role as vice president. he has rejected public health solutions to the problem of illicit drug use and traffic in. and he has, he's the architect of plan colombia, and he's been very firm in enforcing the same model, failed model in mexico and in central america. so the mexican government can now say, see, we're not soft on these cartels. we captured one of the persons who had been, if you had a 5000000 dollar reward on here from the state department, and they'll be able to use that as leverage and some of the other negotiations. but it's not a good calculation for the populations themselves. and are across and says that this is for show, but it won't change anything. thank you so much. joining us tonight from mexico city, laura coughing. thank you. and that's our time. but make sure to stay in touch,

follow our team on twitter at w news and myself that nicole underscore fully. it's the latest headlines you're looking for. there's always are websites, d, w dot com. today we'll be back after the weekend until then from the entire team here in berlin. thank you so much for spending parts of your day with with

you a, making the headlights and what's behind them? news africa, the show that's actually issues shaping the continent. life is slowly getting back to normal. yeah. well, the streets to give you enough reports on the inside. our cars, funds is on the ground reporting from across the continent. all the trend stuff, the mazda you ah, in 30 minutes on the w. o. eco indian

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nothing less the south, all these things and more and then you know, season of the plot can make sure to tune and wherever you get your past and join the conversation because you know it love matter. mm. oh, you become a criminal. ah franklin. i already know who's with hackers and paralyzing the tire societies. computers that out some are you and governments that go crazy for your data. we explain how these technologies work, how they can go for but how they can also go terribly. watch it now. oh

ah. ah, d w like from burr land, no letter in the finding and ukraine despite a ceasefire proposed by russia. b shelling is reported in the countries east. dr. keith dismisses moscow's true announcement as a ploy to re position at soldiers. also on the program, mexican security forces.