of equality ah 75 years ago, ma gundy peacefully let the country to independence with what has remained of his vision. where does the world so call to largest democracy stand with where is india headed? this is the moment to unleash on violet bars, down these legacy starts january 28th on d, w. the dime or veterans table has passed. that's what ukraine foreign minister, the metro, calais, barode, and a facebook both this week. he stressed that their fear ukraine will finally receive armstrong with allies, which at fantasy last year. britain and poland have confirmed that they will send marden heavy down to ukraine by the u. s. germany and france. how was the promise

i'm would be goes for the 1st time since the war began in february. but ukraine says it's not enough mean by fighting continues in the region of dunbar for the last 4 months. on to the point we ask dang, for ukraine, is the west joining the war with . hello and welcome to, to the point on our panel today we have crystal fun, marshall. he is senior correspondent, the bowl and b as newspaper, dia, dog, and speak with jessica berlin as a political analyst and founder off their strategy consultancy goals truck. and joining us from bon b, have froman chad ankle. he's from ukraine,

and vauxhall and t w's russian desk. thank you for joining us, kristof. i'd like to start with you. now for the last 11 months we've seen a kind of reluctance on the part of the western countries to directly get involved with in the war. now that these tanks and armored vehicles are being delivered is now door taking a utah. and would you say that? no, i wouldn't think so. natal countries are just delivering weapons. they are not fighting on the grounds. are not sending troops. so nothing has much changed. of course it's a difference was are you just sent all to soviet type or weapons or no wisdom at technology, but i think the pressures are growing and are we will see in the next 2 weeks are really open. the bid was a german legal part heavy fighting a tanks should be delivered and not only by germany, but through a consortium, a coalition of european countries were wanted to do that right. jessica, since the beginning of the war,

the western countries have been talking about this red lane, that should not be crossed. do you think the red line is getting crossed now? absolutely not. like kristof mentioned, sending equipment does not make the west party to a war. if this were the case, then iran would indeed already be considered a party in this conflict because they have been supplying drones and missiles to russia. so the logic or the fear that somehow by sending more advanced weaponry to ukraine, the west is becoming a party in the conflict is simply factually false. also, it becomes a bit of a mood point because if we look at the equipment that has already been sent by western nations, including germany last year, hobson gate pod. so cheaters anti ibm air air defense, missiles and, and vehicles. we already have sent a lot of deadly weaponry amongst the western nations to ukraine. it so the fact

that the caliber and the size and the number of weapons would increase this year, does not change that dynamic direct. i'd like to go to draw man. now in bon roman b, know that there's heavy bat did going on in a bar, mod and solider. but now does the western countries have decided that they are actually going to deliver the tanks and the weapons? do you think the situation can be brought under control or do you think that the decision was actually taken to lead and this should have happened a few months back? well, yes, i think the decision is too late. but. but maybe it is just on time to stabilize the situation the cause to deliver infantry light vehicles like the german marta. we had them in spring and germany said no. the german industry said yes we could do. we could send dozens of mazda tanks. i if

i was to ukraine very soon, it didn't happen then. so what has changed? i think one of the major reasons could be that western intelligence now has enough information that frustrates preparing newer offensives in ukraine this year probably in the coming weeks maybe in spring. but definitely there's something going on. and just like we've seen, as western intelligence knew that russia was preparing to invade and starting to send light weapons to ukraine, for example, javelin on to tank missiles which were very important in the 1st weeks to stop the russian invasion. i think we are, we are seeing something of the kind now, when the west now is there will be an attack and it wants to help your crane to withstand. and of course, this is not a game changer. like for example, the u. s. rocket system, hamas was and still is. it's a system that allows ukraine to strike a di behind the russian lines about 80 kilometers. and we've seen how it was used

at the beginning, or during just on the new year's eve. and then many russian soldiers were killed by mckee, of car in the end of the nest. but that is a game changer sending tanks is not again, james, at least not at this moment. the west has been sending tanks before, but they will soviet tanks. now they are western tanks and they will help ukraine stabilize the situation. but sending main battle, thanks. the leo parts to the german one. there is no decision on doubts yet in berlin. zack could be something very important, but as i've said, there is no decision on that yet. right. sending these thanks is not a game changer. that's what roman says. it was about a year back when germany had provoked outraged by offering to supply 5000 military helmets to ukraine. germany's reluctance to send military equipment had caused a stir, but now things seemed to be changing. if the pressure or is it

a change in the strategy? let's take a quick look at the supplies that ukraine is expected to receive. in the coming months. it was quite a diplomatic bang when french president emmanuel mccaul announced the delivery of the am x ac 10 armored vehicle to ukraine. it might be a discontinued model in france, but it is still valuable for ukraine with its $105.00 millimeter gun. the western allies are under pressure to act. the u. s. is following suit by supplying its bradley infantry fighting vehicle. it only has a $25.00 millimeter gun, but it's defense. missiles can engage enemy tanks up to 4 kilometers away. at the same time, germany has also promised to deliver 40 martyr infantry fighting vehicles, some from bonus fair stocks and some from the private industry. it will take about 8 weeks to give ukrainian soldiers that require training. great britain is going

one step further by offering ukraine the chance to acquire challenger tide battle tanks while supplying western tanks. turn the tide of this war. will it turn that? i'd cristo. what do you think roman just said that these are not game changes, whereas you okay saying that it actually wants to deliver banks that will change the game. do you think the get changed? it starts as dynamics that might change the course of the war. is the situation when it gets was a question whether we get to talks between russia and ukraine or putting made quite clear that he is not willing to stops awards, answer war until you rush. i can keep serv, territory or she occupied. and from euclidean inside, it's clear that they don't want agrees to that. so there is a necessity that are ukraine, a hostile re occupy it's territory and therefore the needs are these heavy tanks. and for the time being, as we have seen the of the martyrs, the french tank,

the earth, the bradley fighting beagle seats. these are not the heavy tanks a need for a ground offensive and a to in order to do that, we will have, we will get to the discussion of that. the needs is heavy tanks and the best model for the situation is to jermel your part. all experts agree on that for, for different reasons, is there enough in stock earlier our spare parts, which is not the case in for the french battle tank. and the american tanks must be 1st delivered over the atlantic to europe, which is also, and not quite a very pragmatic way toward would to do things. and most, most western armies in europe use already easily or part and they are enough, are governments willing and they are just waiting for the germans permission, the export permission to do so. and the pressures moving because the commissioner of the european union, or the law on the line of germany, politician em talks the state and said she is in favor of sending law paths.

ukraine and sweden has now the presidency of european union. the government is in favor of doing it. poland asked to do it lithuania and it's been asked already in summer to do it. so it really all concentrates at pressure on the german government . so you have to decide whether they get the permission to export, says german earn, mate, earn your part to ukraine or not. and i think they can't afford for a very long time. not to not have permitted that you've talked about leo bar 2 at length. jessica, i'd like to actually understand the difference between these are thanks. i don't mean to get very technica but we just saw that you briefly in the report that about the 4 countries. so what is germany? what is france? what have you with? what is the you'll get actually planning to give and how do we differentiate between the heavier tanks and the later ones? right, so you would change them on to changes the infantry fighting vehicles that have

been committed that to go to ukraine are you could say light tanks, they have a lighter builds and body. they are a bit faster, but they also do not have the amount of armor or also the higher caliber of ammunition that the main battle tanks the m b t's have. and the real crucial issue here for the n b t's to arrive to already get the approvals and be sent. now it's crucial that this happen as soon as possible, so that the ukrainian armed forces are able to receive and train on these vehicles in time to launch their spring counter offensive. and these vehicles, not only these tanks will not only save lives, they will help the ukrainian armed forces to liberate more territory and to defend against the assumed pending russian attacks in the coming weeks and coming months. and it's incredibly important for the european union,

the european allies and the united states to move quickly. now, because for the past year, what we've seen is western aide being enough to keep the ukrainians alive to make sure ukraine doesn't loose. but now, this year, we must ensure that ukraine is able to win and we need to arm them accordingly. this is crucial because time place to rush us hand, they have more weapons, they have more man power. they could drag this conflict out for a very long time, if allowed to where is by acting now, and by giving the ukrainian armed forces the tools, the weapons, the support they need to win decisively and to liberate their territory. will deter russia a from any, any further kind of aggression on this scale, but the more time they get to regroup and to re arm. and the more weakness and

hesitation they see on the side of the western alliance, only serves russia's interests. therefore we and especially here in germany, need to pull ourselves together and act now and what is stopping job an event. that is a question that could fill an entire show onto itself. but at the end of the day, and i take no pleasure in saying this. but from discussions with german politicians from all the major parties, including the s p d. the problem is the chancellor re, is olaf choice and his colleagues in the counsellor in the german chancellor re, they have been blocking the export approvals, the export requests from our ollie's for months. and the main argument that they've been using. number one is, or left shorts loves to repeat. we don't want to go it alone. kind of a line gang in his words, right? and the issue now. however, as christoph mentioned, there's

a lot of pressure building on both sides of the atlantic for germany to approve of the the live parts to be sent. now germany, said noah, but in a coalition. yes, yes not. i may lie that we, we need to approve the exports for the other countries. and of course, we need to contribute our own. but even if we didn't contribute german leopards, we have been blocking. our government has been blocking the delivery from other countries. but now, by still holding out that not going it alone, that has been all choices. main excuse, is becoming the going it alone. so that excuse has the, has already sort of fallen apart. and the 2nd one, the 2nd fear i would almost call it rather than an argument because it is not based in a technical or even legal reality. i think it's quite, quite frankly, a subjective fear that that sits heavily in the staff of the chancellor. and indeed, and personally with the chancellor himself, this, this notion that if germany sends to many weapons, russia will consider us

a party in the war. and this is, am as previously mentioned, or just and nonsense argument. that's not how declarations of war work. if this were the case, then iran would be at war with ukraine and they are not here. and you don't have to journey already would be for the weapons we've already sent or the united states for sending high mars. and if, if hymer is r o k y r leopards not, and it is indeed an irrational argument. that seems to be a decision that germany does not want to take a lot. and all of charles has said that we can't a big decision without our transatlantic partners. and i court, he said specifically without a united states of america, christopher, who is actually going to take the decision germany or the us. whoa. formerly, germany has to fix a decision, but they will be pressured by the us and the argument which is used by the time to the not going it alone or we don't have a consensus. it is just factually natural. we know that the are the lies and the

american government has made it quite clear as a germany is free to takes up decision, sir, to haven't yet set of his leads. you will have to go because that's also not our diplomacy works, but it is pretty clear that the wes and european allies not, not all of europe, but enough european allies would be in the coalition. was us, if c townsley would decide we want to give li parts to ukraine. it would not be a german going it alone. it would be a coalition and probably a trance of lendy coalition. and maybe the u. s. government has to make it even more clear publicly in order to convince of chancellor and also said german public . because as we look at the opinion polls after the decisions that we sent to light tanks, there was a majority in favor of it. it's a moments as a majority against sending leopards, but if the government would explain why that should be done and that we are on a coalition of countries which are in favor of it, i assume also in this case,

the public, the mood would change and or would support it. in fact, the stalling from the chancellor, he has been having a negative impact on public opinion. they are sewing the doubts in the public themselves and they are about 2000 leopards in europe. the different countries and ukraine has said that it needs at least 300. thanks. i'd like to ask romando roman, do you think that's a demand that could actually be met 300. thanks. well, it's hard to say it is very important to start. so we've seen that as soon as some kind of equipment is delivered, then the ukrainians learned very quickly, and then more of that equipment type of equipment can be sent. so in the end, maybe by the end of this year, we could and with hundreds of western tanks and not just leo boards, maybe some other challenges from the u. k. as you have mentioned, could be sent to ukraine because it needs them urgently. what's that? we haven't mentioned yet, but i think it is very important for us to understand why these things are

happening. why are we talking about western countries? breaking the table and finally sending what ukraine has been asking for for a year. like a light tanks have tanks and also into our craft system. air defense systems patriot, which was also kind of a red line which has now been crossed, and berlin is on, on the ticket it delivering it or promising to deliver it together with the united states, one battery of patriot. so russia is speeding up and increasing its military, russia. and just in december, russian president announce, and his defense minister announced that the russian army will be increased by half a 1000000 are soldiers. this is already happening. the new year started at the decree by president fulton is now in force, increasing the russian army of fort worth by over $100000.00 soldiers. and one more

increase is expected. when a spring, conscription campaign begins, are russians up to 30 years old, will be drawn a drafted to the army. these people will be sent on the battlefield. the russian and military is producing in the russian plans are producing tanks, day and night. they will be sent to the front. the west had to respond. right. so you're talking about what's happening in russia. let's take a look there solider assault mining town and easton. ukraine has seen some in dance fighting in the last few months. the town is located about 10 kilometers, not off bok mode in ukraine's doormats region. and the capture of this region is widely seen at the kremlin war objective. the muffled thunder of cannon fire is relentless in the heavily embattled towns of buck, mood and sa, nadar. both sides have spent weeks firing at each other day and night. russia has

been mounting pressure with tactical advances and claiming ground most recently in solid are back moved and solid are, are currently the bloodiest places on the front, according to ukrainian president zalinski. any one who is able flees like this woman from soul that are only it was oh, who survived by hiding in different apartments available when one apartment was destroyed, we moved to the next hour. when it became unbearable, we fled that i would have liked to leave earlier, but i couldn't leave that the key for you. at the same time, russian and bella, ruffian, army units are training in neighboring bella. bruce, this is one of the reasons why concern is growing over a new front north of t f. but in the russian army still strong enough for major offenses. is it christoph, now moscow had claimed in september that it had

a next this raised me up in january right now, and the fighting is still going on. well, i have from dia perspective on says year. i don't think that the war will end in this year. i think we will see heavy fighting, we might hope that you, crean is able to re when territory. but there's also one more aspect which i would like to mention. and that is the question to which degree europe is an international body on itself, earth, strategically autonomous or not. and we see again as this year said without american help or europe is not able to stop or war on its continent. so from my perspective, ern things are they are not looking bad, but they're also not looking very good at the moment. and there has to be more done in order to get in a better position to answer war browser sooner than later. right. and so der

jessica, that is militarily, it's not already relevant place. why is russia so keen on capturing this reading? all? it's like you say it's not about the town specifically, but it's geographical location. and if they are able to capture this town, then it opens up back, moved, and from there, further territories within the region. so it is annette. it's simply enables them to advance their offensive. but i'd like to come back to why it christoph said, and very, there is indeed a possibility of this war. dragging on for a long time, if the ukrainians are not properly equipped by their allies. that is what last year taught us do not underestimate ukraine's ability to quickly absorb and deploy western technology, western intelligence and western hardware. so this here,

the debate we are currently experiencing around the delivery of main battle tanks. we're going to have to have this debate about aircraft, about fighter jets and about long range artillery systems like the american outcomes. so we need across the trans atlantic alliance to clearly define what is our goal for this year. what is the battle field goal? if we, we in europe and across nato, want this war to end in 2023. and especially for the americans. if they want this war to end before the 2024 presidential campaign, which i think they do, then we must act accordingly and arm ukraine. now, this is a sheer tactical reality, and as roman had mentioned the russians, they are pumping on full gas to re arm re quip and re men their

army. and they can do this all day and night. so if we do not respond with the same intensity and conviction and speed, then that is what turns this into a long war. but that's primarily enabled. we're going to the last year of the show, sorry to interrupt you there. i'd like to go back to room on lunch before we can conclude roman. i'm do you think that joseph and jessica, they're both talked about whether the war will come to an end this, you know, not how do you see those? do you think the war will come to an end in 20? 23. i don't think the will will end this. yeah, i think most of them optimistic scenario is next year. so 2 years more of fighting. but i absolutely agree with jessica. the speed of, of this war of the temple when it ends, how it and so depends on the will of the western countries to deliver more and to deliver fast. and right now the temperatures in our ukraine,

it's like minus 15 to minus 20. do you think the weather's also making a difference? do you think in the coming days of you might see a different situation, bender, or better becomes a little more made? absolutely. so general winter is, or at least in this moment, on the russian side, we hear reports about ukrainian soldiers freezing in the trenches. and this is one of the reasons why they probably are lost solider, but this fighting is not all what it continues. and the news of western or light tanks and may be heavy tanks in the near future that could be delivered. this would stabilize the frontline absolute, i'm sure of that. thank you. the war is not over and that's also what paul is president answered. daughter has said allow me to quote, he said, the war is not ending. everything indicates that russia will continue to wage a war of attrition against ukraine. the rest in defense ministers, we'll meet next week to discuss future military, a well joe money given to the pressure. that's the question that remains to be

answered. if you are watching us on youtube, do let us know what you think about it by leaving a comment. we'll see you next week. thanks for joining with

you. a conflict zone with sarah kelly. my guess this week on conflict zone is a renowned foreign policy expert who has spent most of her career analyzing vladimir putin, russia. fiona hill joined me from washington, where she has advised free west presidents and co author to book on. where does she

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