ah, with matters to us. mm hm. mm. that's why we listen to their stories. reporter every weekend on d. w. these places in europe are smashing all the records, stepped into a bold adventure. it's the treasure map for modern globetrotters. discover some of you to record breaking sites on google maps to. and now also in book form, it's almost a year since russia invaded ukraine with no peace talks or cease fire of any kind in prospect. and yet, president putin insist the war is showing a positive trend. my guest this week from moscow is dimitri training for my army officer and former director of the carnegie moscow center, which was shut down last april with tens of thousands of its soldiers killed and

little progress on the ground. the kremlin is taking its own survival on the outcome of the war in the minds of the i think a lot of people around him, we are in a go on, in which russia is very different. but why did moscow go to war? just as the west of the gun, the dialog putin has been demanding and has moscow now move the world once and for all from nuclear deterrence to nuclear blackmail for the meat buchanan. welcome to come pick, go. thank you very much, jim. it's a pleasure to be with you. we've had almost a year of war in ukraine, tens of thousands of people dead, many thousands more injured mass destruction and misery. what good has any of this brought to russia? there is no good that that's the job. yes,

the issue is there sir, could have easily been prevented. but it wasn't. and that makes it the real tragedy . as russia are bitten off more than it can chew. russia and certainly confronting the most difficult issue militarily, politically, socially internationally, something that i think very few people thought that it would have to confront. but it's coping it's learning. it's improving friends, but it's hard. it's going to be hard for, for quite some time. i'm sure you say it's coping and improving things. what should we read into all the changes of command desperation, kremlin anger at the failure so far? i think that would be very superficial. there's certainly any amount of anger you

can imagine. although much what's happening on the ground in various places. but i think you should read on that and move to streamline the chain of command and to prepare for i think more decisive action. a lot of people in russia were complaining and are still complaining that russia is fighting with its hand almost tied behind its back. and that may change where they are new structure. and i think a new strategy that lives behind it. moscow's been attempting to stifle criticism with the threat of up to 15 year jail sentences for discrediting the army. and yet the chechen leader runs on today or off and you have gaining pre goes in front of boot in and head of the wagner must and regroup. they haven't minutes. that would

have that. is it one law for the elite and one law for everybody else? well, i would put it differently there's, i wouldn't call it one law, but there's one approach to the people in be call it patriarchal camp. and another one for the people who openly critical not only of the decisions by the commander in chief of the war of the war effort. russia is a country at the war this time, even if it's officially a state of war, or martial law has not been declared in russia. but the reality is that russia is a war. so no effort is being sped. i thing to make sure that there's more with all their probations, misery tragedies and, and all that does not lead to any serious internal destabilization. and people on

the other side are certainly working to instill a measure of a large measure of destabilization into the russian social subject. yeah. but if even the patriotic crowd saying things about russia, commanders, like all these boston should be sent back to the front with automatic guns, you tend to wonder how wide spread in moscow is that discontent with the way the war is being handled? well, i think you should appreciate that very few people even a few years ago. imagine that there would be anything like this war for russia to fight. 10 years ago, the russian then russian defense minister declared, basically that europe has ceased to be a potential theater of war for russia. and now russia is fighting a war. just imagine it where the country,

whose population is believed to be officially believe to be in russia, but of the same people with russia. it's, it's just mind boggling that russia has been able to, to fight their weight as it has fought over the past 11 months, given the relations between ukrainians and russians, given the relations between russia and the west. so, you know, i'm not surprised that the at the level of anger and the mutual recrimination, i'm somewhat surprised that it is. it's still held in check, but there's still very wide latitude that people enjoy people on the right side if you like that, that these people enjoy. when they discuss things on the battlefield and discuss things at the head for us, it doesn't limit. the whole thing is not limited to just the me, the day, the, to

a man you're mention. but a whole array of a walk our respondents using the freedom, freedom of speech to the hilt, i would say. but what's left of it in tongue, does your get on the free press hasn't been here? well look, i wouldn't want to, to engage with you in a discussion about the freedom of the press of the media. i have a very but say critical you of that, whether in russia or outside of russia, i'm not talking about that. but if you were to read, if you were able to read russian and read a telegram channels that are both available to all citizens of russia, you'll be surprised that how much criticism sometimes justified,

sometimes unjustified. you will hear you will read actually on those telegram channels to me to try to has russia underestimated the west determination to help you crane or is it still cling to the idea that in the end, nato will lose interest and leave ukraine to its own devices? well, i think that the initial concept of the special military operation was very different from what has been and unfolding since may be early march of last year. and had russia been able to achieve its goals? were there a couple of weeks, a couple of months there and i think they would not have been that much that their west would have been able to do to support kids. so this, this really supported k f that it couldn't achieve its goals movement. well, not really, i think that the, again, i don't know what the original concept was,

but it looks like it was, it was more of a special operation than a military one. and that i think was be, was the cause of what happened after that. but this is water under the bridge. i think that certainly one thing was not dissipated. that the west would feel a call at fries and been confiscate russia as currency reserved in, in, in western currencies. and that, i think was not appreciated. the west would be able to do that because that was thought to be, you know, over over a certain line that the westwood would do. and that money was but not hold back before the start of the operation. so that's what. busy what did they expect the

west did? they just complain a little and forget about it. to use whatever means were the disposal to show that for the russia was causing him. if you go back and read what was written in the western newspapers at the end of 21 and early 22, when there was a lot of discussion of an imminent russian attack against your grade, the people didn't go nearly as far as what we're seeing today, people were talking about switching off swift, russia and things like that. it's interesting that maybe the west was sort of learning russia ukraine by professing to do intend to do too little to help your grade. i don't know. well, this is a joke. i still, i just don't think that the west at that time,

that intricate the strategies of the russia and your grade. but russia give them the west, a big boost and in particular, it's given a big boost, hasn't gotten what it didn't want out of this up around so far. yes, that's true. that's true in a way, but not in a very big way because just frankly, russians have long thought russians. i mean, those russians make decisions. those russians who are the russians who run the place. those russians have long assigned western europe, or all of europe outside of russia to, to the u. s. camp mr. book to call your pm countries battles of the united states. so there were no big surprises, except maybe one that germany was shooting itself in the fort by revising its energy policy and rupture energy links with russia. that's,

that was perhaps the only surprise that people that people in this, this done. you tell people on february the 24th so long as the war last, i won't say or write a word, but good harm, the russian army, its leadership, or the commander in chief. does that mean you repudiate all the critical views of putin that you express before february 24th? well, i spend by everything written and said before the 24th and after the 24th. i don't recall your own wreck or just telling the spiegel correspondent, the russians intervention to support the dumbass rebels, was the most serious mistake of putin foreign policy. do you still think that? well, let me, let me tell you this. i'm sure that mister pooty believed that i was not working for russia. when he made that decision. there was certainly

a need to do something about about your brain, about don bass. and i think that was coming to a decision. but the, the original concept of the operation, i don't know what it was, but it seemed to me was flawed. and i think this is something that a lot of people today in russia ship. but as i said, this is water under the bridge. this is not the time to criticize the. busy the commander in chief where we faced the situation in which the west, the combined west, as you said, is up in arms against the and well in the proxy war against the united states and his nature partners and some other countries. and that's the reality in which you operate. i'm wondering,

to what extent russia could have avoided this war if it had wanted to. in january last year, you told come at sun that a dialogue with the west was underway for the 1st time you said since talks on german reunification, the west has agreed to discuss european security with russia. the united states and nato have been negotiating european security with russia, so the security rest on 2 pillars rather than one. why launch a war then when the process the russia had wanted and demanded was actually on the way. well, i sent for mr. horton and for the russian general staff, the key question was whether the west would entertain and that they decide on the idea of no nato membership for

ukraine and no need to a presence in ukraine. that was chief of been keen for put in but, but in your view before the war start my, my, your while in my view and i expressed in various ways, including in a book that was published a couple of years ago that i believe that russia is both soviet foreign policy, 2 things were, were damaging, were, could, would qualify as, as huge mistakes. one is the russian policy toward ukraine, which essentially was no policy and reliance on money, essentially. and your connections with a few people which again to me the did not amount to a policy. and 2nd, the the preoccupation where nato enlargement, in my view of the best way to,

to responded to nato enlargement would be to, to oppose the united po, to, to, but the united states of the same position of perio that russia were deport dear to nato enlargement. but just to be clear, but just to be clear on that, if you, you were saying in january that you didn't believe nato expansion was any great threat to russia. when i subbed that, i would stand by that today. but let's say a historical way. we are worn out in prior to 24 february, we're not at war. and a lot of things could have been done differently, including, and i think primarily by the west which they were not. and again, my point, you know, was no threat in which the freedom of discussion before decision mistaken.

and now that a national decision has been taken. you abide by that decision because it's everything that happened before 24 february was over a different of a different value after the 24th. but my point is that all the reasons that russia has given is given many reasons for why it began this war, including nato expansion. don't hold water to that. that was the charge. the ukraine was engaged in genocide. that's what put in said he said, what's happening in the dumbass, today's genocide turned out to be a false accusation. didn't the case went to the un highest court, the i c, j was thrown out. last march. court said it is no evidence to support russia's claims. russia ignored the ruling. damn. there's

a tragedy to a major population. in 1962, the united states was ready to go to war, to nuclear war with russia. soviet union then over show the missiles in cuba, although you would agree, i think with me that mr. crusher was not planning a nuclear doctor, just the united states. wrong few about positions. he was only looking for a balance over the past year. since you raised the nuclear issue over the past year, russian officials have kept up a pretty constant drum beat about rushes nuclear weapons. does russia really want to move from deterrence, nuclear deterrence, to nuclear black mile? well, i wouldn't call it nuclear blackmail because you make all deterrent. she knew well, the times is blackmail in a way. well, this is, this is

a much more dangerous game. this is do what we want. well, this isn't, it is what else? yes, yes. but if you look at that from the russian angel, and again, i do not invite you to do emphasize where, where, where the russians. but just look at that from the russian and go to them. or war is being waged against russia and part of the territory that used to be russian. that is, but you, later by russia, people, many of them got an excuse, is not an excuse. oh, we're not, we're not in a port. we will not be sitting in a war if it's a totally different ball game. a lot of people would like russia to be sitting in a court. i know. i know, i don't think that they will see russia and the doc, but let them have their dream. do you believe russia is actively considering 1st use of nuclear weapons in this?

let me, let me tell you this present. not so long ago. raised the question whether the russian nuclear doctrine should be revised to allow for a preventive use of nuclear weapons. he then dismissed it in his conversation in the same conversation. but the very fact that he raised the issue, i think, suggests that there's something done about that. it's the whole business, the whole war in your brain is existential for russia. and if you want me to quote book again, i will say that a while back almost 5 years back, one half years back,

the shut that well, we're not interested in a well without rush and the in the minds of potent and i think a lot of people around him, we are in a zone in which rushes very existence is at stake. so i would try very carefully i don't see why russia, the very existence is, is at stake. i can see why you cranes it if russia leaves the theatre of war and goes home, the war is finished. if ukraine stops fighting, ukraine is finished. that they're the ones who are facing existential risk. not you . you started the war. well, you're, we're done. i mean, suppose ukraine, which i think was written and the graham doctrine, suppose your cray just for the sake of argument, had started

a war of liberation against russia, a docking crimea. and a pack of don bass that was outside of control. and ukraine would have said that we are not attacking russia. we're just finishing up the war that actually started back in 2014 over crimea. and now if you just changed the optic said, look at that from moscow from b, moscow position. then here, where does she russia using the same argument? can we just come back to the present because on the subject of nuclear weapons, are you seriously saying that putin might risk the survival of the entire planet just to get his own way in ukraine?

that's pretty close to a definition of madness, isn't it? matt, are not suggesting that your expansion of what basically say so i think i don't know well where the. busy the high command, the commander in chief on those issues. but the countries data trying to win a war against a nuclear stoopa need to need to think about the potential of nuclear becoming, becoming used in that conflict. one way or another. i would be kathy, they've thought about you thought about it, but to comply that game count de when, when once you, once you go to nuclear blackmail, any thought can play the game, can you go from deterrents which is delivered

a certain amount to many decades of stability and you move into a totally new and very dangerous game is moscow really think it will take us there? well, i will address the issue to those who supported your cranes, anti rush and stance. those who gave their support to ukraine in 2014 and after that they were treading along very dangerous territory was not done. even though at that time no one in the west were seriously considering or giving your cray nato membership. no one was prepared to sit down with russia and basically settled the issue without your grade, becoming an aide to a country without ukraine. being

a host to nato countries, forces and it's dory. this was essentially the gist of book news. call it ultimate. i'm call it proposal, call it whatever you like in december 2021. and that was something that people did not wish to discuss. so they made a decision to risk and now they're risking it. how does this end? dimitri chad in ukraine, in whatever condition it emerges from this war is never going to forgive. you, never going to forgive russia for what it's done, the destruction and the death, and the war crimes that it's committed on its territory. i don't know how it will end that many options. i think that given the stakes that are so much higher for russia, i think that russia will prevail over the rest. the major tendon good to have young

complex. thank you very much for your time. you're welcome. ah ah, with

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