ah, the only way i can be on the top is to create my own empire, discover stories who lose their own way. just to click away with journey the destination, right. find out this document trees with the full the drive. now with him entry a shakeup of rushes, military leadership has ukraine bracing for a possible new offensive improvements war to watch a suspected riffs in the kremlin need for their future war strategies. rush us top soldier, malaria garrison, has been named the latest new commander in ukraine with moscow hoping he can turn

the tide as appointment. hence, at a fresh campaign after rushes, bombardment of civilian infrastructure across ukraine has caused enormous suffering, but little to show for it on the battlefields is weak on to the point where looking at an apparent kremlin power struggle and asking what that means for persons war of aggression ah hello and welcome to this week's edition of to the point, i'm clear, richardson in berlin, and i'm delighted to welcome our guests from the former foundation. we haven't leslie schubert. joining us from the german marshall fund is rachel 1000 fright. and we have nikolai menu, a freelance journalist based here in berlin. so very warm, welcome to all of you. so please you can join us. we have a lot to and to day. but i want to start with this re shuffling of putin's top

brass. and what that says about moscow's thinking regarding its war in ukraine. leslie, do you think that this shows us the kremlin is unhappy with how things are going in ukraine and looking for potential new solutions? i think in any case, the criminal must be unhappy with how things are going in ukraine because they're not going well for, for russia, for the kremlin. i think it also shows us that putting probably doesn't really know what to do with that situation and his them on out trying to change it with new personnel with her new commander and for, for the crate forces in ukraine am. and i think that might be assign towards the west to show us that russia is in it for the long run. and that's, it's also assigned to bring under control the proxy forces to wagner forces and can give us a change in forces. and yeah, also to ready may be the russian,

russian people for a new and round of escalation. i want to hear more of your thoughts on, especially regarding the wagner forces about 1st nichol. i, i don't need to tell you that when russia invaded ukraine last year, they were expecting a quick and easy victory. but instead we've seen heavy casualties. a high economic cost. recently this string of military setbacks. how do you think that has affected the kremlin? has that helped so divisions? oh, well, um for the last years kremlin was caught in the bible of self delusions. oh sir, it's been said a lot that's all put in is not well informed. and ah, ah, he was not really prepared for or for the war. he didn't have a clue about ukraine on the condition of the army was way worse than it was presume. so it was kind of,

the armies were functions in the same way the rest of russia does. so it produces images, but it has a little or substance a deuce caused her or blue smooth all the situation. and rachel, what do you think of the view is from ukraine's western allies and particularly the united states with regard to what is going on in the kremlin? yeah, i think the, i think the consensus is that a potent is not happy with the success of the russian forces. the u. s. was as surprised. i would say um, as the other european powers, about how much of a failure the original invasion was. so you know, this is a shuffling of the deck, a sign that you know putin's not happy and that he's hoping that something can change. and i think the important message is, now's the time to strengthen support for ukraine because a new offense of his coming and it needs to it needs to be a failure. okay,

so before we go any further, i'd like to see if we can take a look at exactly what we have in terms of a military shake up in the leadership. as we know, president vladimir putin famously keeps a tight leash on those who are in his inner circle. so let's take a closer look at who is out and who's been put in charge when it comes to russian military strategy in ukraine. she's the russian military's new strong men in ukraine, chief of general staff valeri, drop them off. he replaces general survey survey, again, one of grass and most 3 deputies who was demoted to 2nd rank after only 3 months in the top job. sort of, he can, is a favorite among many hard liners in moscow known primarily for the mass bombing of ukrainian infrastructure. while failing to make any major territorial gains. he also had the support of chechen strong men romps up katira whose malicious are

notorious for their brutality the head of the wagner paramilitary force. you have jenny put it goshen also supported sir a v can. but both he and to dear, of have repeatedly criticized russia's military leadership as being the cause of the armed forces. failures has the kremlin power struggle over the best way to wage war finally been settled. so let's put that question straight to leslie. what do you think there awesome of appointment tells us about the inner workings inside the current one. i think we've got those 2 groups within the kremlin and which is on the one hand. so i begin with with the gordon and as like now groups am and on the other hand, it's a shy go and to get us, muff am and well appoint and get us some of now strengthens via but more russian for ministry for defense side. and as well, it's probably an attempt to put under control these other groups and, and yeah,

i think her, it also shows that something needs to change, put in is not happy with how it's going right now. and i think it awesome off is now, will it gotten the directive to change the course on the battlefields until the anniversary of the invasion a year ago? nicolai's that also your opinion that this is an effort to shorten the chain of a, in a way. absolutely. but her dancing is going to change anything on the battlefield. ah, well, because ah, ah, because of the dysfunctionality of the system. so there's been a negative selection for years. they have very similar people thinking in very similar ways, acting very similar manner. and when they replace on what they really need is what might need, ah, is a struck for structural change new tactics. and they have to fight

corruption. a, presumably putin is hoping that, that ag or asthma can turn things around for russia in its war. and you'll drill. you don't think that's going to happen. no, you think it might hint though at a renewed campaign in ukraine has many western on analysis hauling to see those going to happen, no matter who's in charge, so it doesn't change anything at all. okay, so you see it as pure window dressing. i, rachel, do you agree or do you think that this could signal some kind of more substantive change in the way that russia is planning on its spring in ukraine? i mean, i think a new, you know, head of the military is probably going to bring some strategic changes in the some, i think it doesn't change. you know, i'm not a russia expert, but you still have a dictator problem. you still have a problem of, you know, putting be holding tightly up to the reins, probably not getting the best information because no one wants to give him bad news

. corruption was mentioned, so, i mean, i think they'll be an attempt. i do think that they'll make a new offensive, but i'm not sure that there's reason to think it will be a lot more successful. i mean, all of the, all of the old problems are still there with leslie. you raised a really interesting point and i want to come back to it because some analysts do see this appointment as a result of this growing rift between the traditional establishment russian military. and then these proxy groups that are fighting in ukraine on behalf of russia, such as the wagner group, this private military company of mercenaries. you think appointing someone as senior as girls involved does signal a move toward re establishing the gremlins control over what's happening in ukraine . well, i think it definitely represents an attempt to do so. this also might change very soon. you never know, you know how it's going on the battlefield. so it's in a decision for now. and i think what's dangerous for food enough that this, i mean for the army, it's the signal that, that, you know,

appointments can happen any time i think. well, it looked like everybody was surprised for it about it not only the western allies, but also insights from precautions that we can get most himself probably. so i think this is rather a sign that this might weaken the army from within and the trust in put in and we can loyalty in the troops as important. i mentioned that moscow has, of course, denied that there is any conflict between the army and the wagner group on the kremlin spokesperson to me she passed coff has said it was just purely a media invention nichol. i do think that that's true. well, according to military analysts on the quote ukrainian and the las wagner is the most capable of fighting force in russia. we can say within the russian army, because the, on the part of the russian army, ah, and it is a part. so there are 2 parts of wagner, actually, those are professional. oh,

military people, contractors and those are the inmates. they are using most cannon fodder, or prisoners. so ah, ah, it's kind of functional because pre gordon relies on it is really, really essential for his, his effort. and his entire power lies are within the efficiency of this troop. so yes, it is in many ways better equip, better prepared and way more functional than the regular of forces of russian. i'm so leslie, the abbas a van, a veneer provision. he's known as perkins shaft for his catering contracts, and he's also showed up in war zones. he's criticized the russian military leadership publicly. and then just recently, we saw this spot where he was trying to claim credit for an apparent victory in solid. are for the wagner group. do you think that this is a sign that he has now pushed his luck too far?

well, it's most likely something that was put in as like to see em, especially the part where he, you know, discredits basically that the successes of the russian army or the non successes and, but at the same time, putin neat sim am because you know what's happening on the battlefield and there's no success without back now at the moment. and so i think he doesn't have much of a choice m. and as i said, this could change any minutes it's, it's not a very set system. it's not, as we know it from maybe our democracy is that, you know, there's political capital it, sir, just pushing can send them away if he doesn't want them anymore. he hasn't done that yet. so i think until he does that. mm hm. he's being wanted in the kremlin and please know there is one important addition to this. ah, we kind of tend to see which and as him older project as a college beaman and we neglect his origins in organized crime and was fortune

organized. crime became no central part of the state, so he is actually a gun against thrown in kremlin. and in this terms of pre, gordon is a very comfortable figure for him because he's a career criminal law. so in ways, you know, it's a logical development. the someone like precaution, enters with no, you know, stayed the ground just to clean gangster enters the system without a you know, additional baggage. ok. so you see that as a natural fit do you agree and well probably what i would like to add a thought. c am, you know, it's often seeing that this is something good, an honor for get us off, but i mean, he is probably being stripped of his former m things they had to do. so i mean, he is now in a new role, which is the dangerous role is that, you know, in the public eye and he's in the prominence i am. and would i be king is also not completely off the table. his them, he is the step deputies,

so both of them have gotten to d motion, but both of them are still and again. and rachel, do you think that girl, some of them being set up to fail in this role? we know that it says the latest shake up in 3 months that he's been made a top man in ukraine. do you think that he can, you've suggested here that you don't think it's really going to make a difference on the battlefield? you think he's just taking the fall? i mean, i think he is in a position to take the fall. if things don't go well, i mean, i would expect if things start going well, we'll take the credit. and if things don't go well, we now know who it is, who's there to take the blame. so i don't think it's a very comfortable position for anyone really to be. and should we be optimistic at all that this could, in some ways signal putin's interest in having someone in charge who is willing to talk to the west. we know that girls, mom sometimes even speaks with us. army general mark, milly, chairman of the u. s. joint chief of staff, do you think that that played a role?

i wish that i thought that, but i don't think that i mean it couldn't at any point if he were interested in talking to the west talking to the u. s. could there's regular exchanges between, you know, the highest levels. also the defense minister, secretary defense and defense minister level. so the doors are open when they want to talk. i don't think, i don't think this move was about that. i think this move is, you know, trying, trying someone a to have a new fall guy and be may be to have a better strategy because certainly the current one hasn't been very successful. i made all this discussion over whether we will see a change in russian military strategy that comes after russia has been bombarding cities across ukraine and critical civilian infrastructure. you might have recently seen that leveling of an apartment block full of residents during a major missile attack on new pro. and following that attack in his evening video address, ukrainian president voting there's a lensky, actually switched to speaking in russian in

a direct appeal to the russian people. and he accused, all russians who fail to condemn the attacks of cowardly silence. she in june, i want to say to all those in russia and from russia who even now have not been able to utter even a few words of condemnation of this terror. although they see and know everything perfectly. your cowardly, silent attempt to wait out what is happening while only, and with the fact that one day, the sing terrorists will come for you. god says lensky there with an emotional appeal. leslie, you are actually living in russia up until a few days before the invasion. and i want to ask you whether you think that this kind of appeal to the russian population can be in any way effective. i was in russia until a few days after the invasion. so i was still there and i think this is probably going to reach only the ones that are already reading now independent news,

not watching, stay propaganda channels. mm hm. i think it's unlikely that the density speech is going to reach the homes of families that are already, you know, far, far into the propaganda. i think this might be something that maybe children show their parents and show them look, you know, i don't agree with what you see on t v. look what the president, the thing he's obviously not the person and propaganda pertaining pertaining him pot portraying him to be. and so i think through that maybe, but in general i think that's yeah. yeah, rachel, i want to get your thoughts on that too, because the idea of zalinski is video message reaching russian households. do you think also that western media is penetrating into russian spaces and if so, if it is convincing, i think it's penetrating to, you know, a limited extent. those people who want to get western information can. so he knew

there's fi, pianos, there's, you know, radio access, but it's not easy. and it's only for those people who are sort of already making the effort or is leslie side. you know, what, what could happen is, some people are making the effort and then they're showing it to others as, as what you know, 11 hopes will happen. it's certainly worth the effort. you know, the why should keep trying. i think his alleged his efforts to talk to the russian, people are really important. you see some, i'm in the baltic, there been different efforts as well, of sort of called dialing russia numbers and trying to talk to regular russians. i think these things are, you know, great initiatives and they can help, but i don't think we should expect any kind of miracle, especially considering, i mean, there's already thousands of people who have gotten or been arrested for trying to go on the street. i mean it's, it's also not an easy thing to ask of people now it's a very difficult ask indeed. despite that nickel are you and i were talking earlier and you were saying that in the original invasion, ukrainians were very disappointed in not see more protests from the russians. do you think i presumably that hasn't changed or it hasn't,

although well ukrainians of no better. now, there was a huge misconception. mutual misconception on both sides so you ukrainians didn't really know anything about rush and russians didn't know much about ukraine. so we wouldn't, i don't think we should overestimate the importance of propaganda. um, propaganda relates to sentiments to moods, to thought already there i am in the population and the societies as well. ah, yeah. we know that to sociology, which is not very accurate and there are really problems with the numbers. but lucy, all isn't shows huge support. aw, for the war. so when zalinski is trying to shame the russians, it's, it's kind of lost in the nothingness. there are people who all ready shame,

they don't need to ask you for this until the rest is rather proud or comfortable with what's going on. so yeah, so and i mean, i also wanna ask you nichol, i e, do you think that their propaganda is the key factor here in what is shaping ration opinion? i don't think it says no, i think propaganda relates to or like i said, to move into the ideas that are already spread in the population. and i to what do you do then if it's possible to win hearts and minds? if this remains the opinion of the russian public and at this stage in the war, you still see rod support or i seeing ah, oh, have a major problem here it's, it's, it's really huge. and the only thing that might possibly bring things in motion would be huge. military defeat, like really

a catastrophic defeat for us. so it's not enough just to liberate the territory of ukraine, but it wouldn't change russia and it would remove the stratton, would remove the support for all, for aggression. so a huge defeat would be probably a trigger for some changes, but it would take very long time to, to see the results. or we do have some reaction from the streets of moscow today. let's see if we can take a look for me. it's a full bad, it's bad for every one. we should not be fighting that we should live in peace, newton wrote shortly to those who. i've got 2 sons, i worry about them. the situation won't get better at least the war ins could. how could you fool some one to fight and kill it's against the bible? believe it, it's up to the authorities to decide. i don't want to interfere in this for my support the operation. there are no rallies. everyone has support. if it we've sent

humanitarian supplies. so, leslie, some open concerns and criticisms there, but of course that's in the capital moscow. do you think that that's a representative view of what you might see in the rest of russia? i mean, we've seen quite different opinions in that in that chart clip. um, i think in general, maybe in moscow, people are carrying more about the war in general because i think that for most russians, especially in the recent regions, the was just really far away. and i think the problem is they're either that they don't really care than that. they have very much support it. so and while in moscow, you know, people rather half oh, something to louis. if something were to change and in the regions, people already have really low standard of living and well, with mobilization, the work came into the people's homes. but this, yeah, still and don't think it's changed much in the opinions and nicholas, do you think that that could happen again? we know putin has backed up planned to raise the age for mandatory military service,

up until 30 rather than 27. so a whole group of men who may not have otherwise been called up to fight that could happen as soon as this year's spring draft lawmaker recently, sad to think that that could spark the same kind of exodus. and we saw with them when, you know, need you to know and the accidents, housing, most of the people who wanted to leave the country have already left. so yes, there are people who over obey or r, o willing, ah, willing to go to war. well, because of this for you to put through all texting to do to mentally thing to do. um, so defeat yes, of many deaths or menu, cause groups. no. and rachel, what's the view from the west? do you think that the russian army is still strong enough to even carry out a major offensive, or is what we're seeing with regard to a kremlin shakeup of its top military, just more propaganda?

i think, and i mean, that's really the open question. i think most people assume that, that the russian army is still strong enough to mount some kind of renewed offensive, but an opinion is quite divided on whether whether it will work any better than what spend. but for i think that, you know, there was an initial, a, you know, there was a initial fear of the russian army and people thought it was quite strong before the war started. and now these opinions have been, it mediated quite a significantly. but no one is quite certain that that they can't manage anything. i mean, it is still a very big power with a very big military. if they do a mobilization, um i would expect it to be a bit painful and tragic 1st, even if it's not gonna shift the game significantly, it with all that pain and tragedy nichol. i how much longer do you think that this can last or nobody knows? well with this mobilization and was using, you know,

antique very am equipment that can cause a lot of troubles they can inflict to lot of damage and suffering. ah, oh. so it can last for some time. well, we are hoping the breakthrough can, i can happen this year. it largely depends on the oh weapon supplies, but we don't know it's, it's, it's, it's awards unpredictable. and leslie, what do you think it would take for that kind of major breakthrough to see and to this? ah thing, what we need is unity in the west. we need to, to spout together and supply your crane with all the weapon it needs to get to come to russia, russian aggression. well, thank you so much. our time is up so we're gonna have to leave it there. i want to thank you all so much for your fascinating insights, like the kremlin in fighting, also what to expect from it. shake of the military leadership to my guests, leslie, rachel, and nicola, heartfelt thanks to everybody watching from home. thank you so much. we'd really

love to hear your questions and comments. if you're watching on youtube, you can just leave a comment below. so i richardson in berlin from me and the entire team working behind the scenes. thanks so much. take care with

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ah ah, this is the w news live from billy defense ministers from around the world will meet at the usa based in ramstein, germany today. and the agenda will be dominated by one think tanks be crime says that needs main battle tanks like germany's leopard to, to deal with a fee of a new rush and offensive.