ah, john done dark searches for the truth again. this time the exile to turkish journalist who meets svetlana itsyana, sky, exiled leader of the opposition in bella rue school. i mean, of course i'm tired. i'm tired. physically untied. morally. is it too much on my shoulders, but i have to hold this weight because i'm responsible for the future fall country for the people who are behind the boston. guardians of truth starts february 18th, on dw. ah . as soon as the west agreed to supply ukraine with heavy bottles tanks, ukraine started to demand formal, president zalinski says his country urgently needs by the japs and submarine. now this has fogged the heated debate in international politics. u. s. and germany have

refused to agree to this new demand. others wonder if the dawning to diplomacy could be the way to end the war? so today on to the point we asked new weapons for ukraine. where does the white aid lead? with hello and welcome to do the point. it's good to have you with us. now before we start, let me introduce our guests. we have nick connelly. nick walks as foreign correspondent with deutsch or whether he has been reporting extensively out of ukraine for the last few months. welcome back. next on the panel is professor golf gong mce. he is skeptical about sending more arms to ukraine. and last but not least, we have with us island motley. she is security expert at the german council on

foreign relations. she's also been in berlin, but she's joining us remotely today. let me, let me start with you. you've been on the ground, you've seen the situation there. no, russia has been attacking residential areas and ukraine claims now that russia is preparing for an offensive for the 24th of february. can ukraine really hold its ground quite literally? well, i think that's definitely the conviction interior. i think they are possibly surprised at least what's in terms of the kind of opposite of being spoken last couple of weeks after long period frustration and kind of calls on west to send more. we've had of kind of flurry of announcements of new equipment of so the question mark hangs over when this stuff is actually going to arrive in front lines . i think there is a sense and there isn't really fear that threatens are going to make a lot of new gains. but the question is, how fast will you grain or will you grant a to be able to reclaim church that's been lost? the russian since 24th february 22. so i think it's more about can ukraine make

significant gains before some kind of negotiations restart negotiations? we say island, i'll come to you now. now you claims and it needs heavy tanks. it needs a long range missile systems and is going to get that as well. germany has agreed us has agreed other countries. i'm going to provide things. but now when we talk of a fighter planes, germany and america, they're both extremely, very of that. what's the reason for that? i can't tell you exactly what the reason for that is that my assumption is, as has been to reason and motivations where the war so far, especially in germany, but also the united states. and their leaders are a bit afraid of escalating and contributing to an escalation of the war by way of sending you systems including fighter jets professor matter. do you think that by delivering more and more weapons to ukraine,

the west is in a way, pushing fulton to escalate the war. put in doesn't really need to be pushed to get t deeper into the war. he is a crash or there is no doubt about it. nevertheless, we are dealing with a crash or, and we are dealing with an dictator. and he can decide without all these checks and balances, we haven't democratic systems. he can decide more or less on his own or in this very small in a search. what he wants to to, and what we have seen in the war is that he begins to initiate and you turn in the escalation in this is quite obviously what the americans and part of the german government are afraid of. and

this is what i expect. and at the end and war has to be ended by negotiations. the sooner the better. you've said negotiations, you also mentioned negotiations. now, nato allies had barely settled a weeks long stand off over the supply of battle tanks to ukraine. and now a new confrontation appears to be doing after tanks. will there be in negotiations for fighter jets and submarines? berlin wants to supply ukraine with 14 that had 2 tanks. other countries are also taking part of all poland and norway. the usa wants to send abrams tanks, but that's not enough for ukrainian president polanski who says his country needs much more to defeat the russian army w. my sank all those around the world. politicians, journalists, ordinary people who insist with us that there can be no taboo on supplying weapons

to protect against russian terror. keith, once f. 16 fighter jets but u. s. president joe biden draws a line. they're great. with chancellor all of show it secretes for fear of further escalation, ukraine is also demanding a stop marine from germany, arms deliveries to ukraine, really the only way to force russia to negotiate all of the critics. right. and fearing that the delivery of potential offensive weapons could end in a 3rd world war, must the west give ukraine everything it needs to. when should the wealth go on delivering everything back? ukraine asked for island. i'd like to ask that question to you. where does this really and should the west go on delivering things? i cannot predict where any of this will end. and i think there's nobody in hegan

can. however, if the goal of the west is to, to continue supporting ukraine in its writers who claim to reclaim territory, to fans, off rushes, aggression to sort of, to, to hold on to it. and the ran a teacher at surcharge of integrity. then i think it is necessary for the west to continue supplying ukraine with weapons by the way, not only new weapons systems, but also and initially for systems that have been delivered already artillery systems, for example. there are numerous reports of some of those them systems running out of ammunition and the west are scrambling for um, for further supplying those of ammunition. so as a question of both a new weapon systems, but also the question of i'm continuing to sort of to supply an ammunition for systems that have already been delivered and are still necessary on the bath fields

to to them, to be amused. but ukraine of also asking fidelmo and submarines do you think that's realistic? i think is so i wouldn't want to preclude that the german government at some point will rule in favor of that. it seeing the sort of the history of especially a germany in supplying a ukraine with weapons. it's been really a history of, of, of, of be, of wavering. i'm essentially, but then in the end and germany has almost all the time given into and his demands thirds of ukraine made in concert with its allies. so i wouldn't now go on records precluding germany. my changed its mind on that matter, traverse america. we do see a delight, there are some countries that are more than willing to supply the other countries

that do not want to supply the extremely hesitant. how do you really see this? how do you interpret this? do you think will then has managed to create a rift in the west allies, or would that be a strategy of the west? i don't, i don't see any risk with among the western countries, putin was quite on sex unsuccessful. to create such a cleavage between the different countries. of course, the countries have and different shields strategic position. we have the baltic countries we have poland. it's not the same as we are looking to portugal or to italy. so there is a very different situation. if it comes to geo politics, and the other thing is, ah, there are different historical memories. and of course, poland and the ball,

the countries have different ones, and they want to see russia defeated. but my hunch is, the more russia has to be afraid to slipping on the slippery slope into a defeat, it will escalate because protein cannot imagine any can even not support that russia will lose. it is his fate as well. it as his fit as well. nick, you've been on the ground as i said in the beginning. now, how do people in ukraine see this? is there a sentiment that we have to win the war? there should be victory only then that's the end. or what did i prefer? a solution to dialogue and diplomacy? i think there's very little support in ukraine for some kind of negotiation sooner on russian terms. i think there's definitely kind of fairly broad consensus in grants cited that. russia is not going to stop that. they tried this in 2014,

but they tried to freeze the conflict. they basically tolerated russian control premier. the left front lines didn't ask where they were, and the russia just came back for another bite of the apple and that russia, this time might use the time to kind of breather, to improve its army, to stuck up on spare parts and to re then try again, more successfully, 2nd times is a real sense. our home to grabs which unity, wild west sports in ukraine, while you have joe biden to white house, willing to really provide a lot of my finance and also weapons in case for instance, there's a 2nd trump presidency. the real fear that if you grant doesn't really regain control that search and i'll get some really kind of hard and fast security guarantees that this is going to get a lot worse, a lot more dangerous for ukraine's richer. and m, orlando had recently said her ex are french president, that it's actually both in strategy that the western allies, they should get dire and they should just run out of ideas. and that's what they're doing. they're fighting amongst each other, they'd be, have to deliver thing, then they go on delivering and that's the part of the strategy. and only then within is going to win. how do you do that?

i don't believe that the western country will get tired. they are already deeply involved into this war. and the reputation of the military and the defense reputation of the countries, especially of the united states, depends to some extent what will be the outcome of this war. and they cannot simply forget what they have done so far. they cannot forget that there isn't a caress or which wireless international law flake or entry and so they will not get tired. i'm completely sure. and if you look into the discourses of our country, what are we debating about? we are discussing the situation of the war we are discussing to vicki cheeks, then we can and should get involved. and if we are looking to the

little sequence we have seen now in television, it seems to be that the president of the united states sees it more clear than many european countries, which are the risks involved in an intensification escalation of this war. you said negotiation is the only way out. how do they reach a negotiation? and this is a $1000000.00 question. i don't have for prepared. so you for that, what i'm asking for is we should explore it more intensively. we should start and we should, the countries should talk with a 2 a war party is russia and ukraine and the united states of america should put more. ah, of course,

poor dean. i will not do it on his own, but probably, and this is very difficult to say, and it's even not easy for me. might be that the dictator must be offered some thing. and we cannot start with maxima list positions and saying only we negotiate. only then, when the russian troops have left completely ukraine, this will simply not happen. the negotiations are important, but as you said, the ukrainians did on one negotiations under russian. and also there's a real sense in ukraine that there's a lack of imagination in the west about russia after bruton that, you know, there is not necessarily a given that putting the, survives this politically in any scenario. and that if the losses start adding up, if people from oscars in pittsburgh or who are called up lose their lives, not just people from distant provinces that actually the kind of discontent russian

side could put them on a lot of pressure. and maybe in a year or 2, the west, my fun sells negotiating with totally new people in the government. what people do on the end of what they want the end of the war. but i think there's definitely a sense that russia has not given up its aim of destroying ukraine is foreign country. and that conflict is inevitable. and that they want to know if negotiation happens, do that for a position of strength and for a position where they can defend themselves. it's important to remember here ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in the nineties and returned security guarantees. circle budapest, memorandum u. k. the russian signed the americans and we saw that paper was totally worthless . those guarantees to prove it totally unable to defend ukraine. so i think your grand range is going to have a hard and fast facts on the ground and for real guarantees they can then call on should russia try again? people in ukraine want to see the end of the war. what do people in russia want? and how do the german see this? let's take a listen. according to polls, a slight majority of germans are in favor of supplying offensive weapons to ukraine

. distinct mood, i think with western technology, you can show the russians that it's not going to work. and there's no victory for them, which is what they're counting on over. that's been pat sophisticated, i'm a pacifist, and i want to see ukraine being supported in route on that i think battle tanks to the wrong way had said that there should be more of an attempt to enter into negotiations. i'd still be in the middle console after all, if we send thanks to ukraine buffer, russia will soon attack us. isn't that right? if psy reynolds go off in our country, then it's really going to kick off. it's literature in moscow, many played the west for the war, and ukraine moved the hostile movies like these only escalate the conflict. those who are interested in ending the conflict and what recent ukraine are counting on negotiation youth on uber. unfortunately, we see that our west and partners have an interest in the conflict lasting as long as possible. but when i wanted to brought my compass,

the western countries say they are not directly involved in the conflict to africa, isn't interfering latin. america is not a different, they don't supply anything that they put in, but if you supply tanks, then you're directly taking part for thank you. so a lot of germans, they believe that by directly by sending tags and by sending weapons, germany's data key part of the war. whereas german chancellor left charles, he has the detected that interpretation completely. ellen, let me come to you are talking of the legal concept. if you said your foot on the battle ground, you're directly out of the war. if you train people or if you provide intelligence that's kind of agrees on. but if you only provide veterans, then it's not a problem at all. why is that? so what's the legality around this? well i, i'm not a elizabeth, i'm an expert on, on international law, but as far as i can read them international law, it is pretty clear on that,

as you just pointed out in providing a weapons and to them to ukraine, doesn't equal or doesn't mean that uh, the west is actually a part of the conflict in somebody actually be participating in the conflict and actually are in other speaking of international law. we're talking off of us. you know, i'm holding the un harder and here where it is enshrined as a country. it's had by another m sovereign country as a case in ukraine that other countries are allowed legally allowed to come to, to the country's aid. so it's, there's really no slippery slope, no room for interpretation whatsoever. and in terms of whether or not the west is a, a, as a party to them to the conflict. however, i'd just like to point out one thing. obviously the west is not neutral either. we

have been or at west has been standing by ukraine side from the get go. so we're not in so we're not neutral of ether, especially in political terms. professor michael, if there's no slippery slope. why are so many countries hesitant on sending weapons and especially now we're talking about fighter jets from us in germany because of course there is a slippery slope. nobody knows how the escalation continues. and if you assume, and this is my hypothesis, if you as soon that poor dean cannot afford to lose this war because his political and physical existence is challenged by a day and dictators know perfectly if they lose for us, they quite often get executed as well. so he will do everything every thing,

not to lose the war. and this is what countries know and even obviously the united states of america, they are afraid that the escalation goes to something where nobody can steer any more, what is going on on the crown. and this is certainly an important point. the 2nd point is the people and the political elite in latin america do not have that much trust in to the west. the same is true for india. the same is true for indonesia, because they have seen even the democratic country, the united states of america, violating international law and attacking iraq. so they are talking about the west to speaking with to tongue, so to say, and therefore they are skeptical. they don't want to be part of it and to some

extent for them, it's an european war. it's not a war going on in latin america or in asia. a lot of people are skeptical, they don't want to be part of it. so while the western countries are busy figuring out which weapons to send and which not the newly elected brazilian president lola, the silver has emphasized the creation off. and i caught up the love of countries that want to build these on the planet. and he seems to have found a leader for the school up to well, brazil, brazil has no interest in supplying ukraine with munitions for you for this is now a time for china to get involved and help make peace between russia and ukraine. is america? don't let the silver mentioned chinese. he said our friends, the chinese. but what i found interesting was his choice of countries that he wants

to make the glove. but he mentioned apart from china, he mentioned india and indonesia. now brazil, on the one hand, is in bricks with china and india. on the other hand, it is in g 22. i go with india and indonesia. how do you see this is the power shifting to the global south? is the global south really, really going to play a very big role in solving this western conflict? i would like to hope it, but i don't have too much trust into it. then let's recap. you laid who are the major players, the major plato players are on the one side. certainly russia and ukraine, but above all, the united states of america with out a u. s. will, to end this war. the war may not in very soon, and i'm anyways, skeptical that the war will end very soon in i expect if you listen

to political decision makers are it will loom in to the 2000 then 24. and this becomes a war of attrition. and it means each day, $1000.00 people die on the crown. so the global 1000 can play a role as a new troll actor, but he will not be that decisive. one, nick, russia say that will not done that and extend it to me and sell ends. he says that he wants everything back even came. yeah. so what could be the solution if you're talking about negotiations, how did it really come to the negotiating table that, that if dad loggerheads right now, i think we're not there. i think negotiations are a long way off. maybe if you know, 6 months, a year, years down the line, one of the sides is exhausted in terms of financial resources, human resources, then maybe they'll be willingness to kind of compromise. but, you know, russia claims got a song as it's territory and that was

a city that was retaken by the ukrainians last year. and it's even questionable where the russian knows what it borders. it's claiming. all right, now we had the kind of absurd situation where vladimir putin's press person was asked where does russia end? and he couldn't give an answer. one question about going back to the global self. interestingly, there been some credible reports come out of ukraine. recently of that, pakistani major shells have been found in the ukranian army that ukraine is offering services to help boxed on with its soviet, made helicopters in return, getting munitions. so i think if you look beyond the political more open support, there is definitely the sense that it is proving possible to find resources and military equipment from countries who aren't necessarily publicly getting involved in this conflict. i didn't last towards coming back to again coming back to the role of media. if china does take up the role of mediate a will the rest accepted annoying um jane us dance. do you think jane? i would be a partial mediator. you said that west is not by. do you think that's possible?

well, i think it's a question of whether the west excess and china as a, as a possible broker and ukraine and russia 1st of all, 1st and foremost from having to accept a mediator. and i'm pretty sure that russia would be more than happy to accept china as a mediator. but i don't think that ukraine would, would agree to that seeing as high as anything but a neutral player. i'm in this war and is politically and has been politically supporting russia from, from the very beginning. and i just, i choose to point out that i find the wording it is your pin or west. a good, unfortunate because it is not. we're talking about russia's war of aggression against crane and not a conflict between russia and the west. i have to stop you there, island. sorry,

running out of time. and one of our viewers on youtube asking quads, pardon me? 5. didn't know if i mispronounced, the name has written, the enemy doesn't care. if you are a pacifist or not, he will not. he will come, no matter in what you believe. if you are also watching us on youtube, do let us know what you think about it. thank you for tuning in good bye and take it with

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