gender searches for the truth again. this time, the exiled turkish journalist meets svetlana tihano, sky, exiled leader of the opposition and bella roost of course and tied and tied his color untied. morally, is it too much on my shoulders? but i have to hold this weight because i am responsible for the shall fall country for the people far behind the boss gardens of truth starts february 18th on d. w. the relationship between the u. s. and china has always been characterized by mistrust . the world's 2 largest economies view each other as rivals and their latest dispute was ignited by a white balloon that china flew over you west territory. the u. s. government says that it's air force shot down a spy balloon that american media describes as part of

a global chinese surveillance system. the u. s. secretary of state antony blink and postponed his trip to china. what's at stake for washington and beijing and white on to the point we ask us china rivalry. what's behind the growing tensions with welcome to this week's to the point in time, how you know? yes, it's good to have you with us. let's now meet today's guests melina hanker professor of international relations at the hattie school. jensen, a freelance journalist based here in berlin, working for several chinese and german media outlets and tossed and bennett, director of the global public policy institute, g, p, p i t. all 3 of you welcome. thank you for being with us. and of course we have to

start talking about this very visual, very iconic balloon. we've seen it everywhere. it has been marked in china. certainly has tried to play it down and to certainly act as if this was not really that big a deal. so i'd like to start with you 10. how big a deal is it really? i think term is how chill really sees. so this black box of her chinese leaders serving a one way to look at this really to look at what's the official narrative that china really to try to display in the public severe. and when we look at the, what's the discussion that the chinese government trying to facilitate, and there's a lot of memes about this balloon. similarly interesting icon that flow over yes territory and how tanny's medicines are really making fun of it. i think the indication that tanya's narratives is really trying to make it almost comical in a way. and that's a dumb play. i think that sends

a lot of signals that chinese government really like to, like people to look at as a incident rather than a major happening. that's certainly what they're trying to do. a molina, if we take a look at this, china claims the balloon is just for research purposes. however, it did fly over very strategic u. s. military bases, even storing nuclear weapons or from your perspective, how much of a threat is this alleged to spy balloon? for the u. s. security. well, in our, in itself, it's not such a big threat at china's collecting intelligence and use this balloon to get clear a pictures to be able to hover over military sites to get sensitive data. and you know, the balloon has certain advantages over satellites, but i think it still says a lot about the, the state of chinese american relations because the reaction inside of the united states was very harsh as the public air very much. it is, you know, stream li,

critical of china. i think we really and have reached new heights an anti china sentiment in the united states. and then of course me, no one can ask why now, why was there balloon sent over the united states? was there an intention from the chinese part or was this just pure happens? and then of course, you know, like how does their end story now unfold the chinese air, you know, a do not necessarily take the position of saying that's true. we are collecting survey and they're still pretending that this is a and whether i'm a balloon and you know, we will also see how it plays out internally and how in a will it reinforce the position of the heart liners inside of china? or will it actually may be soft, understands a little bit, and then lead to emily min air mil to military toxic between the united states and china, which have been stopped since nancy pelosi is visit to taiwan last year. we'll then we'll talk about that later on. it's a very important, it seems like it's not even the incident, but how it is going to be used. now. this is not the only balloon that we saw at

austin. we also saw another balloon that was flown overland american territory, even leading a 2 hour to an apology from the chinese government or from a country that says that it only once stability and not well into political disputes. how do you think these 2 balloons have actually changed or the perception were, could change the perception of china as a world player? i think nobody had any illusions about the designs of the chinese communist party and its leadership for it is not exactly shocking that sir. they use every available technology and balloons is a technology that the u. s. literally didn't have on the radar. and now, you know, piecing together the information on, on these search on these activities. but as such, that's not really a surprise. her, you know, china threatens tao on china builds or artificial islands against international law

. and in the south china sea and china spies globally uses satellites, uses the cyber hacking to get sensitive data of prominent americans and, and so on. so that's not really news, as sir marina said, the real story is, you know, how does this, this incident play politically? and it tells us it's really hard to put a floor under the late relationship between the us and china. because this trust on both sides is rampant plus sir, there's a lot of pressure domestically in the u. s. served for a president to be really tough on china. the same way. there's a lot of pressure on the chinese leadership to be tough for tough on the u. s. imagine in the coming weeks, maybe there knows her house majority leader. mccarthy will travel to taiwan. she shipping will be under pressure to be even more aggressive in his reaction than he

was last year. when nancy pelosi went, we will see some he said just then in the chain. and i think it was a little bit as the price for latin america, a lot of latin american countries in particular, south american countries. actually quite sympathetic to where they're china. i'm looking at brazil, but else argentina, and dare you know and that they are now also part of their says, spying program. you know, i don't think it's necessarily gonna drastically change the relationship because they massively ascetic anomaly from china. but at least, you know, like it might at least stare. i kind of pause sir, the bay pro china discourse that exists and these can really send an alarm harbor on this table. it seems like no one really doubts. it was a spy balloon. however, we know that each part is trying to sell it in a different way. was it a clear case of espionage or just an innocent weather balloon? the chinese government says it was a civilian device that accidentally flew into u. s. aerospace but washington sees far darker intentions.

american fighter jets shot down us by balloon dashing hopes of a peaceful reconciliation between china and the us. for now, they cases clear cut to the u. s. administration. espionage. but questions remain. why usable loon? some expert see it as an obsolete tool to spy, while others are calling balloons a useful surveillance vehicle. china is said to have repeatedly spied on u. s. military installations in the past with this method. balloons why much lower and are therefore difficult for readers to detect giving them an advantage over satellite surveillance. this means they can remain undetected in one place for a long time. allowing them to spy unsuitable military assets or missile tests. satellites can only do so during fly, buys from high altitudes, these kinds of balloons are also capable of intercepting enemy communications. will

the balloon shooting casino american relations to deteriorate even further? that's of course to be question tossing. we had already mentioned that antony blank and the secretary of state wanted to travel to china. he now postponed that trip. what kind of signal does that sent about where the us china relations are right now after this isn't since the signal is really hard to stabilize her, them are the 2 presidents tried so and barley at their meeting, and lincoln's visit, where he was supposed to also be received her by she knew ping himself, which was a sign in all this is important visit and we'd take this seriously and we want to invest in putting a floor under our relationship right now. it, it, it demonstrates this is very hard to do. hopefully, herb lincoln will be able to travel to be jing in the coming weeks of before this potential visit off for the house majority leader mccarthy to taiwan happens

because i think this communication is these communication. charles are really essential for a long time. the chinese site was skeptical about sir, investing in these back channels and turned constructive channels of communication . and i think cur, if the, if beijing now signals, they want this visit to go ahead. i think girl biden would be belt, well advised to sent his secretary of state. and so by and certainly also tried to play this down saying that it did not really or take a hit like the relationship between us and china did not take a hit from the balloon incident. jan, what do you make of that? especially from what you're hearing from the chinese side, or is this a dame change or in any way? and i think you've, you only look at a found the tiny social media and reporting it doesn't seem to be a big deal. but it definitely very, very symbolic in many ways. i think there's a balloon when you look far away, look like it has like a pin humble. so if you would take this as a single, as well in the 1970s,

that's exactly the ping pong diplomacy that established and the chinese in america relationship that was a small boy. and then kind of put this diplomatic ball rolling over. i re now a balloon kind of her, this very image to that in the blue sky. and as soon as maria has mentioned that it's not if i compare was, for example, a way advanced, a saber at tags and others buying technologies. this is a very small thing, but it is very, it's very big in terms of how unstable the relationship is. i think a, we do need this communication channels in order to avoid a small case would derail the bilateral relationship. and ironically, that's exactly what happened. a balloon showed up and then derailed. this really important for both sides visits, and it's any small detail can make things for,

for worse. i'm going to, you already mentioned the anti china sentiment in the united states. of course, this is quite visual. and the republican party specifically is using it to think they are succeeding in actually driving public opinion against having a better relationship with china. so that and sign o u. s. arrival. it didn't start yesterday, right? so m people a date, the pivot to asia, add to the bomb administration. but when you look closely at pentagon papers, in particular, actually already started in the mid to thousands. this is when the pentagon, a military planners for the 1st time declared china as the peer competitor, as the real military arrival of the united states as the one country that you know, could really deb kind of em compete and also under mine and the u. s. and the global liberal world order. and ever since in the, in the beginning it's right. it was kind of a republican and position. but now i would say that democratic party,

it is as hawkish on china as the republicans. and actually it's one of the very few topics that in very polarized america still unites this country. it's, it's there a position on china. and just like an absolute conviction that with especially china under shooting ping. so a very authoritarian china, the united states cannot corporate and they are certainly trying to have a sort of a competition, both parties to see who was harsher on china tossed. know, what do you make of what you've seen so far in the discourse after this incident and the pressure that joe biden, a felt in order to react? and joe biden pursued a very smart china policy because sir, he was really tough economically. technologically. while at the same time tougher than the trump administration on some counts, while at the same time rallying allies to america site, there was seen as,

as pretty effective and threatening by b ging, especially the technology sanctions on semiconductors that were announced her late her last last year and her soul from frog in, in the u. s. the rob organs of course, cannot say old president biden is actually tougher on china. then trump and smarter because he actually worked with allies. they need to use this balloon. an incident to say he was very soft on china because he didn't shoot down the balloon while it was kind of over are a kind of for, it was over a land space and only did saw when it was over water and he is weak on china and as we move into would campaign mode in the u. s, i fear that this kind of competition who's tougher on china with stupid proposals also will dominate the airwaves. this balloon was made for american cable

tv. you know that you had days of stupidity in terms of public commentary on, on this. and i think it gives us a preview of what is to come in campaign season is on may. and i think it's also one of the narrative events. and this kind of discussions slightly below out of proportion is exactly because the reveries awaiting the american parties because of the republics and trying to blame the democrats there till soft and china. by then, the democrats is also and trying to say that actually it didn't just happen in and it is a ministration it happening comes administration as well. and exactly, i think that national security advisor sullivan has that because the by demonstration improves the detective technology. that's why it happened. so i think of the other sort of the narrative and some advice would be on this situation or some other advisors said that right now,

really american needs and diplomatic wisdom to mellow it down to make sure that maybe potentially this truth can still happen. it is a difficult balance between trying to stay tough on china and on the other hand, pursue a better relationship with the competing with the rival of computing power. a president biden certainly tried to be crystal clear, and similar to what we're china, where we can advance american are just the better with the world, but make no mistake about it. as we made clear last week of china, friends our sovereignty, we will add to protect our country and we do well, that's what the u. s. is saying, of course we have to look at china as a rival, as, as we've already mentioned earlier. marina. how big a thread do you think or are we talking about right here for the united states?

so she's in thing is m an authoritarian leader, and he has a very precise agenda and he has stated this agenda on various occasions in speeches. and it is the chinese dream. and this chinese dream includes that once china to become the number one in technology globally, but also it once, quote unquote, the china rejuvenates. he always uses what it's an english translate into rejuvenation. what does that does rejuvenation entail it is that taiwan becomes again, part of china. it is part and parcel of an cheating, pigs agenda for strategy. and he wants to reach this by 2049. why? 2000 and f? $49.00 because it's the hundreds on verse 3 of the founding of china, of a fair communist china. and so i think the same plan is real and we have to take it seriously. but the question is how will this reunification with tiven unfold? and i think there's a lot of very, you know, like

a pressure from china to do it quote unquote, politically, peacefully. or a lot of cyber attacks to kind of infiltrate that have any system and try to, you know, make them believe that there is no other options than to reunite with china. but you know, it also looks likely that they won't succeed, especially the youth inter vaughn is becoming more and more anti chinese and wants to stay independent. it looks at hong kong in particular and sees we cannot end up like them. and so a military and intrusion invasion of taiwan looks more and more likely, but the chinese are also aware that this is an incredibly tough endeavor. at china . m, you know, is a military power, but it doesn't have a lot of military experience. and taiwan as an island and am, you know, invading an island incredibly heart. and then of course, there still the u. s. factor will the u. s. defense taiwan, or will they help taiwan and withers than escalate in a, a real pacific war. so i think in are there lot of variables still on the table,

but it's clear that she's in ping once taiwan to back in chinese fold. and i wouldn't doubt that an intention no point. he makes it very clear. however, there are very many variables as you mentioned, and also very dubious or, or confusing discourses, even in china when it comes to the use of force. jim, it is always mentioned, but it is always mentioned that they don't want to do. i think them as we are know that is hard to get like so the opinion polls phrases upon chinese public comment. people are actually supporting to take over, tell them by force and how much not. but look at the sentiments from people and i think it's, it's similar but, but like russia, you know, they could, when, when something internally happens and how i, it's always a very good excuse to unites sort of on a national level. and i think a 11 article recently publish is quite interesting is the f, a chinese investor in france. so he did a show on france

t v station. and then people ask about this blue incident as well. and then of course, referred show whether or not taking cohen by force. he didn't say it specifically was the 2nd was, were, will do it. but he did say, if we cannot do it by piece and every other possible options are still on the table. and he also addressed that, yes, we want how i'm back. so i think it as many i said this is a clear signal that it could happen one day. but i think bowden actually did say as well. so the civically at one pair, one is help us will be military volved. and that's one of the reasons why some military experts in the united states think that a military confrontation between china and the u. s. could happen in the coming years. thorsten isn't yes, but it doesn't help us to speculate when it will happen. i think nobody can say

with certainty or the deputy or defense minister of the us colon. carl recently said that the u. s. military superiority in critical demands was still would still prevent the china from moving in the coming years. most, most likely. but i think we, we really need to get our language straight to. it's not a reunification or taiwan was never part of the people's republic of china. it would be a takeover of taiwan. it would be the ultimate victory of the communist party in the civil war that it fought too with the k m t. and that would kind of achieve that, that goal the same time. the question is, what to do about this? i think the real challenge is to prevent this new cold war between the u. s. its allies and, and china and russia from turning into a hot war over taiwan and to what we need is effective deterrence. that means sir, not only military capabilities for taiwan to defend itself, but also

a clear commitment of europe. fir of germany, to say she shipping you need to decide, do you want to be technology and economic leader and just do business with us or, or do you want to take over taiwan? you can't do both. and if you move on to how are you upset the piece falls status quo, then you will face sanctions. the same way, put in this facing, facing them, saw to make the choice very clear to the chinese side. and their choice also implies the way commerce works. now, the coven 19 pandemic, and the russian evasion of ukraine clearly outlined the risks are relying on just one provider of goods and services. in the aftermath of both crisis, the u. s. is trying to become less dependent of china for some, it's an almost impossible task. build back better that with you as president jo biden's promise recently at the opening of taiwanese tip maker t as in size news, semi conductor planned in arizona. but there was another important message in key

china out, especially from key tech manufacturers like this one did conduct business with friendly countries. only friends showing is now the latest buzzword, the result, chinese corporations, i quote way, are losing orders in the usa. now, instead of selling cellphones to america, the company is focusing on increasing automation in china. the disconnect between the 2 economies is progressing at a rapid speed. the u. s. military is also becoming more confrontational to deter china's aggressive posturing in the south china sea, toward taiwan. the u. s. is demonstrating solidarity with neighboring democratic countries like japan and more recently the philippines. what's next in this economic, technological and militaristic showdown? what's next and will it work a melina? do you think this strategy works,

trying to prevent china from getting key technologies and working closer with the allies? well, i think there's a good chance that at least civil impede the progress. but, you know, i am at 1st her and all that american allies need to implemented. and to a certain degree, germany has great difficulty implementing. and a lot of german businesses are still heavily investing in china. and i fully agree with thorsten here, and there needs to be a clear decision made in the heads and also a clear vert spoken from the german administration. that you know, if you want to move on taiwan, and you can no longer count on us. but does it really make sense for the european countries to get involved in this dispute? especially commercially speaking, if they're so reliant was i think it's in our interest that we don't supply the chinese leadership with the technology that enables it's military rise. and china has a clear tragedy of civil military military fusion. a lot of their critical technologies

are used for the build up of the military's. and do we want to sit here in 510 whenever years, and then lament that we actually enable the technologies that allow china to move militarily. that's the question we need to ask ourselves. and it's not easy to answer because it does come with significant economic costs. cost that are also there for china. very briefly. how do you see the outlook in that sense? i think the one getting was hannah. also people need to separate a bit. what is chinese government and what is chinese people and a we can go back to the protest that happened not long ago. this happened exactly because as a bridge and how do we keep this bridge on top of that sort of complicated situation. i think it's also very important we'll see of those bridges continue. that's all we have time for in this weeks to the point. thank you so much for watching and see you next time. take your job

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