overcoming divisions save the date for the d. w global media forum 2023 in bonn, germany and increasingly fragmented world with a growing number of voices, digitally amplified. see where this clutter can lead. what we really need, overcoming divisions into vision for tomorrow's journalism. save the date and join us for this discussion. at the 16th edition of d, w. c, global media forum. the relationship between the u. s. and china has always been characterized by mistrust . the world's 2 largest economies view each other as rivals and their latest dispute was ignited by a white balloon that china flew over you west territory. the u. s. government says that it's air force shot down as bible that american media describes as part of

a global chinese surveillance system. the u. s. secretary of state entity blink and postponed his trip to china. what's at stake for washington and beijing and why? on to the point, we ask us china rivalry, what's behind the growing tensions with welcome to this week's to the point time how you know? yes, it's good to have you with us. let's now meet today's guests melina hanker professor of international relations at the hattie school. jensen, a freelance journalist based here in berlin, working for several chinese and german media outlets and tossed and bennett, director of the global public policy institute, g, p, p i t. all 3 of you welcome. thank you for being with us today. and of course we

have to start talking about this very visual, very iconic balloon. we've seen it everywhere. it has been marked and china certainly has tried to play it down and to certainly act asked if this was not really that big a deal. so i'd like to start with you tien, how big a deal is it really? i think them is how chill really sees. so this black box or fur, chinese leaders serving a one way to look at this really to look at what's the official narrative that china really to try to display in the public severe. and when we look at the, what's the discussion that the chinese government trying to facilitate, and there's a lot of memes about this balloon. similarly interesting icon that flow over us toto free and how tanny's medicines are really making fun of it. i think the indication that tanya's narratives is really trying to make it almost comical in

a way. and that's a dumb play. i think that sense a lot of signals that chinese government really like to like people to look at as a incident rather than a major happening. that's certainly what they're trying to do. molina. if we take a look at this. china claims the balloon is just for research purposes. however, it did fly over very strategic u. s. military bases, even storing nuclear weapons or from your perspective, how much of a threat is there's alleged to spy balloon for the u. s. security. well, in our, in itself, it's not such a big threat at china's collecting intelligence and use this balloon to get clear of pictures to be able to hover over military sites to get sensitive data. and you know, the balloon has certain advantages over satellites. but i think it's still says a lot about the, the state of chinese american relations because the reaction inside of the united states for the very harsh air, the public air, very much it is, you know,

stream li, critical of china. i think we really and have reached new heights an anti china sentiment in the united states. and then of course, no one can ask why now, why was there balloon sent over the united states? was there an intention from the chinese part, or was this just pure happens? and then of course, you know, like how does their end story now unfold? the chinese air, you know, they do not necessarily take the position of st. that's true. we are collecting surveillance, they're still pretending that this is a and whether an ad balloon and, you know, we'll also see how it plays out internally and how in a will it reinforce the position of the heart liners inside of china? or will it actually may be soft, understands a little bit and then lead to. and millie millie and milton military talk said between the united states and china, which have been stopped since nancy pelosi is visit to taiwan last year. we'll definitely talk about that later on. it's a very important,

it seems like it's not even the incident, but how it is going to be used. now. this is not the only balloon that we saw at austin. we also saw another balloon that was flown over latin american territory, even leading a 2 hour to an apology from the chinese government from a country that says that it only wants stability and not well into political disputes. how do you think these 2 balloons have actually changed? the perception were, could change the perception of china as a world player. i think nobody had any illusions about the designs of the chinese communist party and it's leadership for is not exactly shocking that sir. they use every available technology and balloons are, is a technology that the u. s. literally didn't have on the radar and now, but, you know, piecing together the information on, on these search unease activities. but as such, that's not really a surprise sir. you know, china threatens tao on china builds artificial islands against international law

and in the south china sea and china spies globally uses satellites, uses the cyber hacking to get sensitive data of prominent americans and, and so on. so that's not really news, as sir marina said, the real story is, sir, you know, how does this, this incident play politically? and it tells us it's really hard to put a floor under the late relationship between the us and china. because distrust on both sides is rampant plus sir, there's a lot of pressure domestically in the u. s. search for, you know, a president to be really tough on china. the same way. there's a lot of pressure on the chinese leadership to be tough for tough on the u. s. imagine in the coming weeks, maybe the news. her house majority leader mccarthy will travel to taiwan. she shipping will be under pressure to be even more aggressive in his reaction than he

was last year. when nancy pelosi went, we will see yes, if i just then and may chain. and i think it was a little bit a surprise for latin america, a lot of latin american countries in particular, south american countries, actually quite sympathetic toward their china. i'm looking at brazil, but also argentina and dare you know, and that they are now also part of their says, spying program. you know, i don't think it's necessarily gonna drastically changed their relationship because they massively benefit economically from china. but at least, you know, like it might at least stare. i kind of pause said that they pro china and discourse that exists and these can certainly send an alarm hovering on this table . it seems like no one really doubts. it was a spy balloon. however, we know that each part is trying to sell it in a different way. was it a clear case of espionage or just an innocent weather balloon? the chinese government says it was a civilian device that accidentally flew into us aerospace, but washington sees far darker intentions. american fighter

jets shot down a spy balloon, dashing hopes of a peaceful reconciliation between china and the u. s. for now, they cases clear cut to the u. s. administration. espionage. but questions remain? why usable loon? some expert see it as an obsolete tool to spy, while others are calling balloons a useful surveillance vehicle. china is said to have repeatedly spied on u. s. military installations in the past with this method, balloons why much lower and are therefore difficult for readers to detect. giving them an advantage over satellite surveillance. this means they can remain undetected in one place for a long time. allowing them to spy unsuitable military assets or missile tests. satellites can only do so during fly, buys from high altitudes. these kinds of balloons are also capable of intercepting

enemy communications. will the balloon shooting cause they know american relations to deteriorate even further? that's of course the big question tossing. we had already mentioned that antony blank and the secretary of state wanted to travel to china. he now postponed that trip. what kind of signal does that sent about where the us china relations are right now after this is since the signal is really hard to stabilize, are the 2 presidents tried, saw, and barley at their meeting, and lincoln's visit, where he was supposed to also be received her by she knew ping himself, which was assign, you know, this is important visit and we take this seriously and we want to invest in putting a floor under our relationship right now. it, it, it demonstrates this is very hard to do, hopefully, or lincoln will be able to travel to be jing in the coming weeks of before this potential visit or for the house majority leader mccarthy to taiwan. happens

because i think this communication is served, these communication charles are really essential for a long time the chinese site was skeptical about sir, investing in, in these back channels and turned constructive channels of communication. and i think cur, if the, if beijing now signals, they want this visit to go ahead, i think girl biden would be well, well advised to send his secretary of state. and so by and certainly also tried to play this down saying that it did not really or take a hit like the relations in between us and china did not take a hit from the balloon incident. jan, what do you make of that? especially from what you're hearing from the chinese side, or is this a dame change or in any way? and i think you've, you only look at found the tiny social media and reporting it doesn't seem to be a big deal. but it definitely very, very symbolic in many ways. i think there's a balloon when you look far away, look like exactly like a pink humble. so if you would take this as a single, as well,

in the ninety's seventy's se, exactly the ping pong diplomacy that established and the chinese and america relationship that was a small ball. and then kind of put this diplomatic ball rolling over and right now at balloon can affirm this very image to that in the blue sky. and as soon as maria has mentioned that it's not if i compare was, for example, a way advanced, a saber at tags and others buying technologies. this is a very small thing, but it is very, it's very big in terms of how unstable the relationship is. i think a we do need this communication channels in order to avoid a small case would derail the bilateral relationship. and ironically, that's exactly what happened. a balloon showed up and then derailed. this really

important for both sides visits and any small detail can make things far for worse . i'm going to, you already mentioned the anti china sentiment in the united states. of course, this is quite visual and the republican party specifically is using it to think they are succeeding in actually driving public opinion against having a better relationship with china. so that and sign a u. s. arrival. it didn't start yesterday, right? so, and people at date the pivot to asia add to the bomb administration. but when you look closely at pentagon papers, in particular, actually already started in the mid to thousands. this is when the pentagon military planners for the 1st time declared china as the peer competitor, as the real military arrival of the united states as the one country that you know, could really deb kind of em compete and also undermine the western, the global liberal world. order and ever since in the,

in the beginning it's right. it was kind of at republican and position. but now i would say that democratic party, it is as hawkish on china as the republicans. and actually it's one of the very few topics that in very polarized america still unites this country. it's, it's there a position on china. and just like an absolute conviction that with especially china under choosing ping. so a very authoritarian china, the united states, cannot corporate. and they are certainly trying to have a sort of a competition, both parties to see who has harsher on china tossed. know, what do you make of what you've seen so far in the discourse after this incident and the pressure that joe biden, a felt in order to react. and joe biden pursued a very smart china policy because sir, he was really tough economically. technologically. while at the same time tougher than the trump administration on some counts,

while at the same time rallying allies to america site, there was seen as, as pretty effective and threatening by b ging, especially the technology sanctions on semiconductors that were announced her late her last last year and her soul from frog in, in the u. s. the rob organs of course, cannot say old president biden is actually tougher on china. then trump and smarter because he actually worked with allies. they need to use this balloon or incident to say he was very soft on china because he didn't shoot down the balloon while it was kind of over our kind of for, it was over our land space and only did saw when it was over water and he is weak on china and as we move into would campaign mode in the u. s. i fear that this kind of competition who's tougher on china with stupid proposals also will

dominate the airwaves. this balloon was made for american cable tv. you know that you had days of stupidity in terms of public commentary on, on this. and i think it gives us a preview of what is to come in campaign season if on may. and i think it's also one of their narrative events. and this kind of discussions slightly below out of proportion is exactly because the reveries awaiting the american parties. because the republic i'm trying to blame the democrats, though chil soft and china by then the democrats, is also and trying to say that, and actually it didn't just happen in and by does the ministration it happening comes administration as well. and exactly, i think that national security advisor sullivan had said because the by demonstration improves the detective technology. that's why it happened. so i think on the other side of the narrative and some advice would be on this and situation.

i some other devices said that right now, really american needs and diplomatic wisdom to mallory down to make sure that may be potentially this trip can still happen. it is a difficult balance between trying to stay tough on china and on the other hand, pursue a better relationship with the competing with the rival. the computing power of president biden certainly tried to be crystal clear and clear to work with china, where we can advance american interest to benefit the world. but make no mistake about it. as we made clear last week of china threatens our sovereignty, we will add to protect our country and we did well, that's what the u. s. is seeing, of course, we have to look at china as a rival, as, as we've already mentioned, are marina. how big a thread do you think or are we talking about read here for the united states. so

she's in thing is an, an authoritarian leader. and he has a very precise agenda. and he has stated this agenda on various occasions in speeches. and it is the chinese dream, and this chinese dream includes that it wants china to become the number one in technology globally, but also it once, quote unquote, the china rejuvenates. he always uses what it's an english translate into rejuvenation. what does or does rejuvenation entail it is that taiwan becomes again, part of china. it is part and parcel of am choosing pigs agenda office strategy and he wants to reach this by 2049. why? 2049 because it's the hundreds on verse 3 of the founding of china, of a fair communist and china. and so i think the same plan is real and we have to take it seriously. but the question is how will this reunification with tiven

unfold? and i think there's a lot of fat, you know, like a pressure from china to do it, quote unquote, politically, peacefully, a lot of cyber attacks, to kind of infiltrate that have any system and try to, you know, make them believe that there's no other options than to reunite with china, but you know, it also looks likely that they won't succeed, especially the youth in taiwan is becoming more and more anti chinese and wants to stay independent. looks at hong kong in particular and sees we cannot end up like them. and so a military and intrusion invasion of taiwan looks more and more likely, but the chinese are also aware that this is an incredibly tough endeavor at china. and you know, is a military power, but it doesn't have a lot of military experience. and taiwan is an island, and am, you know, invading an island incredibly heart. and then of course, they're still the u. s. factor will the u. s. defend taiwan are really help taiwan and wilson escalate in a, a real pacific war. so i think another lot of variable still on the table,

but it's glue that she's in pink once to want to back in chinese fold. and i wouldn't doubt that an intention nor a point. he makes it very clear. however, there are very many variables as you mentioned, and also very dubious or confusing discourse, even in china when it comes to the use of force. generally it is always mentioned, but it is always mentioned that they don't want to do. i think them as we are know that is hard to get like so the opinion polls phrases upon chinese public comment. people are actually supporting to take over town by force and how much not. but look at the sentiments from people and i think it's, it's similar but, but like russia, you know, they come when, when something turn only happens and how i is always a very good excuse to your nights. so the m. f on a national level, and i think a 11 article recently publishes quite interesting is the f,

a chinese ambassador in france. so he did a show on france t v station and then people ask about this blue incident as well. and then, of course, referred to whether or not taking cohen by force, he didn't say it specifically was the 2nd was, were, will do it. but he did say, if we cannot do it by piece and every other are possible. options are still on the table and he also addressed that. yes, we want, i want back. so i think it as many i said, this is a clear signal that it could happen one day. but i think bowden actually did say as well, so pacifically at one pair, one is help us will be military volved. and that's one of the reasons why some military experts in the united states think that a military confrontation between china and the u. s. could happen in the coming years. tossed isn't yeah,

but it doesn't help us to speculate when it will happen. i think nobody can say with certainty or the deputy or defense minister of the us colon. carl recently said that the u. s. military superiority in critical domains was still would still prevent the china from moving in the coming years. most, most likely. but i think we really, really need to get our language straight to. it's not a reunification or taiwan was never part of the people's republic of china. it would be a takeover of taiwan. it would be the ultimate victory of the communist party in the civil war that it fought to where they came t and or what kind of achieve that, that goal the same time. the question is, what to do about this? i think the real challenge is to prevent this new cold war between the us. it's alice and, and china and russia from turning into a hot war over taiwan and to what we need is effective deterrence. that means sir, not only military capabilities for taiwan to defend itself, but also

a clear commitment of europe. fir of germany, to say she can ping, you need to decide, do you want to be technology and economic leader and to do business with us or, or do you want to take over taiwan? you can't do both. and if you move on taiwan, you upset the peaceful status quo, then you will face sanctions the same way put in is facing facing them. so to make the choice very clear to the chinese side, and their choice also implies the way commerce works. now the coven 19 pandemic, and the russian evasion of crane clearly outlined the risks are relying on just one provider of goods and services. in the aftermath of both crisis, the u. s. is trying to become less dependent of china. for some, it's an almost impossible task. build back better that with you as president jo biden's promise recently at the opening of taiwanese chip maker t as in size new semiconductor to plant in arizona. but there was another important

message to keep china out, especially from key tech manufacturers like this one, conduct business with friendly countries, only friends showing is now the latest buzzword, the result, chinese corporations, i quote, way, are losing orders in the usa. now, instead of selling cellphones to america, the company is focusing on increasing automation in china. the disconnect between the 2 economies is progressing at a rapid speed. the u. s. military is also becoming more confrontational to deter china's aggressive posturing in the south china sea, toward taiwan. the u. s. is demonstrating, follow dirty with neighboring democratic countries like japan. and more recently the philippines. what's next in this economic, technological and militaristic showdown?

what's next, and will it work a molina? do you think this strategy works trying to prevent china from getting key technologies and working closer with the allies? well, i think there's a good chance that at least civil impede the progress. but, you know, i am 1st her, i'm all the american allies need to implemented. and to a certain degree, germany has great difficulty implementing. and a lot of german businesses are still heavily investing in china. and i fully agree with thorsten here, and there needs to be a clear decision made and the heads, and also a clear vert spoken from the german administration. that you know, if you want to move on taiwan and you can no longer count on us. but does it really make sense for the european countries to get involved in this dispute? especially commercially speaking, if they're so reliant was i think it's in our interest that we don't supply the chinese leadership with the technology that enables it's military rise. and china has a clear tragedy of civil military military fusion. a lot of their critical technologies

are used for the build up of the military's. and do we want to sit here in 510 whenever years, and then lament that we actually enable the technologies that allow china to move militarily. that's the question we need to ask ourselves. and it's not easy to answer because it does come with significant economic costs. cost that are also there for china, very briefly, a, how do you see the outlook in that sense? i think the one getting was hannah. also people need to separate a bit what his chinese government and what is chinese people. and we can go back to the protest that happened not long ago. this happened exactly because there's a bridge and how do we keep this bridge on top of that sort of complicated situation? i think it's also very important. we'll see of those bridges continue. that's all we have time for in this weeks to the point. thank you. so much for watching us, you next time, take your job with

ah

30 with a in good shape. these are the typical fine for analogy. but what exactly is the

40 doing? and why? we clarify, if you can proven symptom, which therapies actually help in good shape in 30 minutes on d, w. a . ready? no. with hackers, paralyzing the tire societies computers. and that's where you and governments that go crazy for your data. we explain how these technologies work, how they can go in for, and that's how they can also a watch it now new to

many of the woods, i am said lana seattle's tie. i am running for president of the republic of beller road, leaky a like every one else. for a long time, i thought it was best not to get involved in politics. hugh, she is a wife of an upcoming politician in a dictatorship and then in a moment where she tries to stand up for her husband's her destiny changes. and she, herself becomes a school teacher. and john de dar searches for the truth again. this time the exile to turkish journalist meets svetlana at seattle sky, exiled leader of the opposition and bela bruce. of course i'm tired, i'm tired, physically untied. morally, it's too much on my shoulders,

but i have to hold this weight because i'm responsible for the future. follow contra for the people far behind the boss. guardians of truth starts february 18th. oh d w. it's with ah ah, this is dw news live from berlin, more than 21000 killed in the earthquakes in turkey and syria rescue as continue to pull people alive from the rubble defying the odds. but for days also the catastrophic earthquakes hopes of finding a.