somebody else supporting them and i think people just gravitate towards that. and the beauty of football is bringing people together from all different kinds of backgrounds. you guys from down south. busy florida guys from iowa that were raised on arms guys like me that are from germany. i will come together for this beautiful game of johnston speaking to you earlier. that is your news update the sour. i'm claire richardson in berlin from your whole team working behind the scenes. thanks much for watching. imagine how many pushing of lunch are so now in the world climate change on the story. this is my plan, the way from just one week. how much work can really get

we still have time to go. i'm going with. mm. ah ah. he stumbles straddles this straight between europe and asia. time and time again, it shaken by unpredictable strong earthquakes, where he stumbled assistant bull is extremely at risk. and over the past, 50 years from this manga city has grown from a population of about 1000000 residents to more than 15000000 own house, augustine is. it's a race against the clock, posing a challenge to disaster management teams and local residents. the

city lacks buildings that come with stand quakes box shoot, 95 percent of all houses would have to be demolished. another victim angle, cuz they on the left, my face a terrible situation. it's not quite itself, it's the aftermath to get to the scenario. what is it possible to predict the next big earthquake seismologists are developing a new method and best smell of hello. the best case scenario would be to put out a sort of bieber cur, where every day we could estimate if there's a higher or lower risk of an earthquake up shuts, was that full costing t far in advance has risks of its own. you saw that a bank of the people would storm the banks, not a mock. they would storm the stores, you saw that they would turn on each other or their security forces or a plan in place for this type of scenario. you don't know about your the count down

to size mala, jests and emergency responders is own ah, ah, more than 15000000 people live in this coastal city. and it's becoming increasingly crowded. the most for a straight divide system bull into a european and an asian side, the region is particularly prone to us quakes ah, in 1999, less than 100 kilometers from the city center,

an earthquake strikes. it's one of the worst in turkey's history. at least 18000 people die. hundreds of thousands left homeless, emergency responders are often too late. there is no working emergency plan or early warning system in place. mm. thousands of buildings collapsed like houses of cods, sandy, sub soil and shoddy construction a to blame. seismologists expect a similarly powerful earthquake in the coming years. this time right off the coast of it stumble. a good 1700 kilometers away. at the german research center for geo sciences in potsdam, scientists monitor earthquakes all over the world for cleansing. now uncompromising nichols, i think size mileage is to marco bone half and his team of studying the city on the prosperous. the earth's crust is especially unstable in the region for he stumbled

to see a good feared on ecstasy. uncle is extremely at risk. i got it over the past 50 years, and this megacity has grown from a population of about 1000000 residents to more than 50 a 1000000 is on. and unfortunately, not just off the coast of this don ball and there's an active plate foundry. and from what we can tell, it is under enormous stress dish forbush fund for shiny of the islands on a tremendous amount of energy is currently building up underground gun. physic meant under to discipline of national muscle dusty. some wouldn't again, whom honorable norma says like old continent syrup sits atop tectonic plates. directly in front of a stumbled in the sea of mamma, the eurasian plate meets the anatolia and plates forming a so called foot zone. typically

these plates push past each other bit by bit and gas bubbles rise from the ocean floor. we can see this from footage taken by a french german turkish research team. mm . but right off the coast of a stumble, the plates of stock. we don't see the usual gas bubbles, that spots where the earth's plates cannot move alongside each other. the pressure builds energy accumulates if it discharges the plates could move forward by up to 5 meters at once, triggering a violent earthquake right in front of the coastal city. the government forecasts 30280000 deaths could result in experts even say

a through nami is likely with waves as high as full meters. manas michigan, seismologists, predict the earthquake will have a magnitude of at least 7 earthquakes and measured on a scale of $1.00 to $9.00 quakes with the magnitude of 4 felts. by most people in the area. a magnitude 7 quake is considered particularly strong, consequent boon offs. team wants to use a new method to predict powerful earthquakes, like these in the future. i skip the guns. i a fond full of there's a series of indicators we can observe. a foreign earthquake strikes and if we can systematically record and evaluate them automatically in real time with them, it would essentially be possible to look at the beaver curve of a false zone. 24 hours a day when done and, and then issue warnings when necessary. oh von housekeeping. that would be

revolutionary duncan, the so far, early warning systems around the world to react at most a few seconds beforehand. lindale that store so to deal with things. so cold seismographs registered the less powerful primary waves of an earthquake, sending a signal just seconds before the destructive, secondary wave stopped. ah, mexico city uses such a system in 2017, there were 2 particularly strong quakes here. ah, about 20 seconds beforehand. residents were warned by a public loudspeakers saving thousands of lives. this was possible because the epicenter of the quake was far outside the city. ah. in 2011, tokyo experienced one of the most severe earthquakes ever seen worldwide. the

cities residents were warned via television radio and the internet. nearly 80 seconds beforehand. ah. in those precious seconds, the city can shut off gas lines, switch traffic lights to read and bring trains to a halt. a stumble also has an early warning system, but it's only for the disaster management team. and the warning period is limited to just 5 seconds. which is it at the disaster coordination center. that is not enough time to warn residents. lucas will that you should have the truck at the should because that time span is so short with people would not be able to escape in the event of a quake to move. that's why our system is limited to preventing accidents. so fires,

for example, by automatically turning off the gas only up on the get a cache that a bill, employees of the local transport system and gas utility, as well as fire fighters, are often on standby in case of an earthquake. they also get some help from the computer software isla, depending on the magnitude and location of the quake, the program immediately calculates the number of potential deaths. oh, collapsed buildings, harmony, nordic down south of it. then we have to compare the computers estimation with what's actually going on a leveled cellar to do this, we use information from the team that's on site by, for example, the fire department in my room crisis. then we can be confident with sending the right team to the right place, rush, unless you get a residence must also be prepared at the disaster training center in casita, an 8th grade class is running through drills to day. so how close is the danger?

lou? long this is the north, anatolia, and false zone variable choir. for you. with this, we are only 12 kilometers away from it here in this district law. so that means a quake would be felt especially strongly here. a simulator generates a quake with a magnitude of 6.7. the children only have a few seconds to duck under the table. it's important they remember to protect their heads. when the quake is over, the students can run outside, but not before turning off gas and electrical appliances to prevent fires. if i only knew a little about earthquakes before this,

but now i've experienced it and understand what to do. given the instructor gent and coll recommends, always having an emergency backpack ready to go equipped with water, a flashlight, and a 1st aid kit. it off it council to the commissioner. garden, professional aid won't come for the 1st 72 hours of a disaster. these channels and then therefore we must be prepared for survival until help arrive reached it. john the items we should lead on it. but these tips are only useful if buildings and infrastructure come withstand the us quakes. on the european side of the city, a subway line is being extended civil engineer, mr. far matessa is supervising the project on behalf of the municipality is all in the district of katana. the tracks emerge above ground and cross the bridge. it

is supposed to be safe for an earthquake up to a magnitude of $7.00, but the soil post is at risk. lake is in sight. we have to cover a long distance here, but the ground is very muddy and unstable. good, we're good through. this is dangerous during quakes. what are the overall market? that's why we dug very deep into the earth to connect the bridges pillars with stable ground. all, almost all of a 70 meter long steel structure will anchor the bridge to from a ground. ladies, the subway control center. this is where emergency plans should take effect in the event of a quake stop elevators. switch escalate is to move up only slow down and evacuate trains. ah

and then while we're filming this happens with ah, a moderate us quake with a magnitude of 5.8. it's the city. it's the 2nd as quake within a matter of days. that hasn't been a situation like this for many years. she the navy, i was, it was a 1st settled, something struck my chair, lumped and started shaking. exactly. we were evacuated immediately, omega. now i'm here to pick up my child. good luck. cell phone service is disrupted, didn't from making those who can try to reach their friends and family i

and that is a house is here are all old. so we were very afraid. i can't reach my family, the lines down. i'm also afraid to go home. don't look at you. i'm nervous, very nervous. i can't even picture what the big quake would be like in our coach. naturally, there are no deaths. so injuries but many buildings, including this minarette a damaged one day later typhoon kara. man is the head of earthquake risk. management for the city. he's faced with a big challenge. the cities warning system did not activate during the quake. ito, stealing a keen condition that you can't say the system worked as it should have to mean. we

have 10 stations at the moment, but we aren't receiving a signal from any of them, but not even yesterday. our task now is to build more stations and repair the 10 we already have. so this will also turkeys. conservative party ruled is symbol for 25 years until the summer of 2019. carmen says the party did not do enough to prepare the city for earthquakes. isn't just on the victim of unfortunately we cannot say that is done bullies prepared for an earthquake to day. typically, i know there are still buildings here that are in danger of collapsing matter to do that. after all, even the 5.8 magnitude quake caused major damage in florida because a lot older still, the new city government wants to set new priorities. today, carmen hosts representatives from the magda foundation at city hall for about 2 decades. this group of scientists, merchants, and crafts people,

has been trying to prepare its temple residence for the next big earthquake traumatized by the 1999 quake. they did not want to leave their fate in the hands of the state alone. our mission is that within the 1st 72 hours after a fight, everyone is active in their own neighbourhood. we want to train $4.00 to $5.00 volunteers in each district to form a civilian disaster rescue tamer up the new city administration wants to work together with the foundation for disaster management experts is denisia. this is a ray of hope thought i did. we have come to the right place, he will support our projects, develop them further, and he also has plans of his own on that of our calendar. the earthquake was a wake up call for the whole city. as a panel discussion, the foundation,

magda informs residents about the dangers of earthquakes. there's quite a bit of interest whose denisia tells them what they must avoid. at all. costs is panic, native mcleana when combating a disaster. the most important asset we have is people want, but only if those people are prepared and can act reflexively. i mean, big to decline if they are not prepared with. and they become a liability against either usa because they panic. i'll say they give a point to them when i get to dick. oh, big difference like gaudy ah back him potsdam gemini. during the birth tree test seismologists mako bone hoff has a breakthrough. by collecting up with it, he used his various types of stone to simulate earthquakes and call solutions fire

in the real world man. and there might be 100 or 200 years between 2 strong quakes . i fear we don't have that time. so instead, we simulate these processes at an accelerated rate when we increase the pressure relatively quickly, and then retrieve the measured values. so we can do our calculations for let's list ultimately we can recreate a complete cycle from one quake to the next within a few minutes. and often con bono tests to town with a sandstone sample. a press supplies, an enormous amount of pressure to the stone. the machines simultaneously registers acoustic signals that reveal what is happening to the stone internally war. slowly the machine increases the pressure on the stone. it's as if 30 trucks were stacked up on one finger. on the surface it appears the stone hasn't changed,

but the acoustic signals on the monitor show another story. it's beginning to fracture. so that more and more cracks become visible, like small miniature quakes. higher than 15 minutes later, the stone breaks marco bone half says the same logic can be applied to large scale earthquakes. museum for them, we're seeing all of this for shock activity before the point of fracture of info val. and since that, similar for all rock samples ologist, we're hopeful that we can apply this map. and as with us it looks and from okay, so we're on the scale. many, many craigs to signal a larger earthquake is coming. was this also the case with the september quake in istanbul? 50 holes. scientists from all over the world conduct research at the german research center for geo sciences in potsdam,

in the hope of predicting when earthquakes will strike. in addition to turkey, grease and italy to danger zones in europe, orders hos were to do the main trigger as the african plates, which is pressing northwards towards the eurasian plates in the mediterranean. ah, in 2016 and as quake rattled central italy, nearly 300 people died, one as she was the collapse of many old buildings. this was not the case in japan which experienced a 9 point one magnitude as quake in 2011. ah, that nearly 20000 people died most from the resulting soon know me. that slammed into the northeast and coasted the country. devastating the area ah, research to say adapting infrastructure is crucial. this is market you would up the

earthquake that struck japan in 2011 is a good example. it's indeed there was a lot of damage related to the sonoma, but you know, but the buildings withstood due to compliance with earthquake resistant standard denote bosses. me japan invests a lot of money in earthquake resistance construction, for example, offering subsidies for buildings with shock absorbing dampers. the money for this kind of technology isn't available in a stumble. we won't, if call, she did perfecto. 3 factors must be considered low push versus the likelihood an earthquake will strike leaks 2nd and all the number of buildings and people that morning, unusual and 3rd 11, the quality of the construction or how vulnerable the buildings are. so a hot spot, in other words, a place where damage could be particularly great too,

has these 3 factors also. and we see that in istanbul, but also in cities like lima kito or mexico cities. yeah. on the vehicle to, to mexico. the biggest challenge now in istanbul is limiting the potential damage of a mega earthquake in the southwestern part of the city. the barcode neighborhood is particularly at risk, is denisia from the magda foundation has worked here for 12 years as a disaster prevention coordinator. she surveys the area with who's going to do a seismologists give you a block to hit the house is here, a very old. it's imperative we pushed a change in rebuild it. after the september quake, 2 buildings were evacuated. all the facade shows

significant cracks. you know, those, those are those that are trying to lift the lid of the residents are alarmed and upset. don't get is it? yeah. was young. 0, one of the buildings will be rebuilt, but the owners simply cannot agree on what to do with the other one. maria deangela room of the one. if a building is reported to the city is unsafe, it should be torn down. what do you run by law, but there's not enough funding to build a new that's why unsafe buildings. a still inhabited goes to show them a government only cares about prestige projects. it doesn't care about how people

really lived, but they should it. oh, i did it there from the. it's not just about the quake style. it's the immediate aftermath of would be terrible. gaskets are the fire department fires, i be ignited by natural gas lakes. a lot of the car is an aviation fuel tank and gasoline definitely and, and yet there is still no precautions. lacy, les sambal, the fires that could occur after a quite of the biggest risk to assemble. ya, good luck. carry the dick romando. we have no time to lose owner. but our government in ankara prefers to plan an absurd new canal through east unbolted, which we must immediately prepare for a quaker. but they just aren't listening to us. it. if you're at all, you know, other major city in europe has grown quite as fast in recent decades. what is lacking, however,

are earthquake resistant to residential buildings. in recent years, the turkish government has repeatedly tightened building regulations. but the chamber of civil engineers is skeptical of the construction industry. it's chairman jamal, good chest stress is that just because the building is new, doesn't mean it's safe from earthquakes, o cover? it's a major, so point gee, was standalone linda steady, retire let beula until very recently the inspectors were chosen and paid by the builders themselves. part of the july, how independently can you inspect the person who's paying you know that there isn't, at least since the 1st of january, 2019 inspectors are now selected through an electronic system on my yet smell. but even that does not suffice in a team. your project will not use on because they're often not trained well enough or not. i don't have special certificates. so a simple diploma is enough to get the job come, but we have

a serious problem with construction supervision in this country. yet, mazda today, that the city is growing rapidly. as a result, it is becoming more and more crowded. and the risks of severe consequences from an earthquake are increasing. shindig again. sure, that's the situation wherein right now it's a crime isn't it? can one really live in a city like this will not of the government is i and these open spaces already my arch. there's sure to be construction here is on on it can't go on like this. ayana mother called marcy on him. meanwhile, the state disaster management authority are found, is raising awareness about the risks posed by earthquakes, with an elaborately produced t v. commercial. ah,

the message prepare for disaster said that your neighborhood stays safe. how to go about this however, there's no specified. instead, the authority promises educational campaigns. oh, the reality on is symbols, strength is not as intellect as the commercial. in actuality, there are constant traffic jams and more and more high rise buildings. the new city government knows this all too well. it is seeking solutions and has invited german seismologists mako boned off to is stumble. scientists from all over the world, adjoined by local rescue teams and associations to discuss the current situation. boone hope delivers the opening speech, assign of how much his work is appreciated. the current knowledge of the mama fold

indicates and maximum expected of rec magnitude of $7.00. of course, this would not exclude a larger event as we have learned full dramatically in japan and 2011. but based on historical data, this is probably a solid measure referenced all over the years. boone houses team has worked with turkish disaster management authority to set up 7 measuring stations in the mama region. 11211 for us quake safety is a top priority for the cities, new math, a cram. e mom. he is in close discussion with bone huff and other international scientists. their research will be incorporated into the new earthquake roadmap for a stumble. the ball young. i'm convinced oh, this is an issue that the whole world must solve together. the buck who stumbled a nails a game boot shouldn't dip them. ist on bull's biggest problem when it comes to

worth quakes is the safety of its buildings risky shed. nearly 50000 buildings are at risk, different even a mild quake can damage damage message it live in a up with them at this pose as a huge threat to the lives of tens of thousands of people busy mission. and i am the sure the answer is not only to demolish houses and build new ones, thought it, but perhaps to strengthen existing buildings as well. that will be not loading which land that we must use this time very wisely to find quick and practical solutions. so we can save people's lives in sunlight and john on the crystal mock ultima engineer. and her goodness is also committed to finding solutions. but good to know is not working on predicting if an earthquake real strike days or alice ahead of time. he's focused on the seconds before the, quite like the malta, even though if we developed an early warning mobile app that alerted uses about the east anvil earthquake in september. go started spotted, bit off to customers and no much so we've proven the app works. logan. i'm now here

to get support for it from the city. come from showroom system in logan lesson was he should get a quote on this theater machine. i pay goodness appointment was put off until a later date. the fear of a quake has been propelling him forward for years. a stumble doesn't have an early warning system like the one in tokyo or mexico city. so i per goodner took matters into his own hands and developed a mobile app in 2017 to it's designed to send a warning signal to people in the stumble area, a few seconds before a major quake. the app can be purchased for the equivalent of around 2 euros a year. so far, governor has set up 6 measuring stations in the mama region using his own funds to day he is monitoring his station in the boutique mentioned district.

the sensor registers tiny tremors, 3 meters deep in the event of an earthquake. it measures the less powerful primary waves of the quake. it sends a signal to ap he uses 5 to 25 seconds before the stronger and more destructive, secondary waves. the warning time increases the further you are from the earthquakes, epi center, some jungling spots, which mr. vick persistent has proven itself all on arms. but if there's only one station per location, there's a risk of false alarm. so all the cost reasons, i've only set up $1.00 system at the spot, but it would be better to add one or even 2 stations every 3 kilometers and set up

a whole network. but he doesn't have the funds for that. each new station costs about 25000 euros. currently, about 5000 people have downloaded his mo bile. only a fraction in comparison to assembles 15000000 residence but good now believes in what he's doing. every 2nd counts all on yoda hawk of truth in 10 seconds. you could take shelter with your children will yourselves. although if you're driving a car you can park it safely. you must miss. if you are about to go inside a building or drive through a tunnel, you decide against it on your that visa seconds that save lives on your larger lou that seconds and not enough for german seismologists marco bone huff. he wants

to be able to warn the population hours before a quake. he is out on the sea of mamma. just off a stumble. exactly where a fault zone far below the surface could trigger. the next big quake on the island is deacon. her own hor, for set up a measuring station to help with his forecasts, but the station is hardly sending any signals at the moment. thus the problem was to group. this is the largest island off the coast of istanbul, and these are predetermined measurement sites because they're closer to the faults on the phone at home. the team is headed to the highest point of the island. a summit in the middle of a nature reserve. ah,

he a seismic graphs were installed 300 meters deep into the earth and covered with concrete . using acoustic signals, they registered the smallest tremors that do not reach the surface. this way, even many us quakes of recorded the depths of the seismic graphs plays a critical role. yes, since 1st we have to try to get beneath the surface because in a metropolitan area like ist on bowl, there's a lot of background noise from infrastructure, wind, and weather. excellent. that's bad for us because we want to measure the signals as cleanly as possible, and that's why we have to go deep below the surface of seamless. but drilling deep down is expensive and we have to drill at least a few 100 meters. i'm so in this case i'm the compromise between the cost of drilling and meeting our requirements is 300 meters deep on at meta construction,

around 300000 euros was financed by the gym and research center for geo sciences. the turkish authority, all fans and international donors notice d, dim at sharell, remembers how intensive the process was. it you said in a tumult to longer the drilling here took a total of 9 months. the ground is made from very hard. stone didn't miss it. so drilling into it was very difficult. it's not on its own dash feet. it was also a mammoth task to bring these huge machines to the island to kiss it. and then the drill heads of the machines kept breaking on it. i think we had to replace 10 of them. the drilling company hated us by the end of it all is done to remove the data from the size. mcgross is sent in almost real time via the internet to the disaster management till sorority often in ankara. and to pulse them, what was the team must now figure out why the signals are failing to send

a u. s. company manufacturers the senses. they are used in earthquake zones all over the world. technician sir, j. valensuela has come all the way from the us to help with maintenance. we have some problems with the fishing. seems like this. i send the data to the central station. so we try to figure out was the problem. seems like is the round, the digitize, her house like a roman, so when it gets full, it will stop acquisition because it's how is design. because the seismic graphs are embedded, deep under ground, they cannot be swapped out. valensuela can only activate them by remote control. he come on, they didn't get here on dark connectivity, boone half phones his colleagues in potsdam to find out if the data has arrived from o. remich, we repaired the data locker, but we know the data arrived in ankara and in 5 minutes will know if it arrived in

potsdam. but everything looks good. mission accomplished, the data finally arrives impulse stem. in the meanwhile, up develop goodner has found a backer for his early warning system. a renowned is stumble geologist wants to further develop his jobs or the chaos. professor gen keanta rack wants to use cell phones to measure the shaking during an earthquake and compare it with the measurement data on site. something like this is not being done before. we want to combine these 2 functions in the app there from until now it's not been possible to measure how each building react to individuals during a quake. but with cell phones lying around the house,

we could measure that set of homeowners in the law much good couldn't meet the geologist is stumble technical university. they discuss how the app could be used to estimate damage after a quake. what can be a few years back? geologist chang. he l tack. who's also working on a warning system to predict earthquakes. yeah, yeah. that's no longer his priority because he considers it dangerous. yeah. this and you all to saw so that if i could predict now that in 30 hours there will be an earthquake bunker. how would they control the money and turkish banks have to catch out? it would flee abroad on that bunk. people would storm the banks. you saw that they would storm the stores if they would turn on each other way, that blur their sufficient security forces to prevent something like that you put on it is. is there a plan in place on, you know, there isn't, i mean, leaving it therefore, even if there was a way to predict earthquakes,

our society would not be set up for it. because then you would need 2 and a half square meters of space outside per person. but there's no space in istanbul, aleki, we don't even have $75.00 square centimeters per person. maybe. yeah, you just go to the city center. yeah. to booking the streets are 2 and a half meters wide, but the houses 6 stories, high apartment. if one house collapses, the whole street is blocked. like a fire breaks out in just one house. it spreads to all of them with a bidding. the young and chic 70 soak are you, are you? ah, only a few months have passed since the last quake in a stumble on the 24th of january 2020, another earthquake strikes turkey. this time in the eastern part of the country. the quake is almost 30 times stronger than the september quake in 2019. at least 90 buildings collapse and 41. people die in the lousy region.

ah, survivors and rescue workers grave overnight temperatures of minus 8 celsius emergency units, travel from istanbul, the rescue work takes days. geophysicist miko bohn huff doesn't have much time left. unfortunately, that's exactly what research requires. but he does have new findings. the results of the september quake, or in his thesis, seems to be correct with under the sea of mara. many, many quakes accumulated until the bigger quake with a 5.8 magnitude struck equals offender. big question is whether these fractures, the 4 shocks are signs of a larger earthquake worse one at the recent research is don't yet know if this is

a pattern that can be applied to all quakes. but the indications that growing boon huff estimates that it will take another one to 2 years to see if the method is proved correct. oh, really then will it be possible to develop a reliable, full costing system in best manner, feller, best case scenario would be to put out a sort of fever curve data where every day we could estimate if there's a higher or lower risk of an earthquake m residence would start to adjust to this. it would be like what we see with forecasting extreme weather to sean. this is not yet the case with earthquakes, and there's a long road ahead to get there this with for, but this is what we're aiming for. and we're working to improve this situation in systems of our best on the people of a stumble, only have

a real chance if priorities the set as quake resistant buildings. public warnings, seconds before a quake, and a longer lead full cost. the research is what cremains of race against time. we love europe. we love diversity and anything unusual. no mountain is too high and no road

is too long. in search of the extraordinary we are the specialists over lifestyle, europe, your romance. in 30 minutes on d. w oh, blue ah mania, i am. hi lana. see i knew sky. yeah, i am running for president of the republic of bella, rosie a john dunder searches for the truth again. this time, the exiled turkish journalist meets svetlana at seattle sky, exiled leader of the opposition and bella, ru school. i mean, of course i'm tired. i'm tired, physically untied. morally, it's too much on my shoulders,

but i have to hold this weight because i'm responsible for the future. follow contra for the people far behind the boss. she gardens of truth starts february 18th on d. w. ah ah, this is dw news live from berlin, sir in doctor's under enormous strain as they raised to provide care to earthquake victims. hospitals are facing shortages of staff and medicine with resources already.