professional program ahead of hosting the women's rugby world cup in 2029. this is dw news. here's a quick reminder of our main story to day. more than 25000 people have been killed in the earthquakes in turkey and syria, out of finding many more survivors, a fading as 8 starts to trickle into syria. you're watching t w use doc fil is next with a look at how istanbul while stared from tech is recent earthquake is sitting on one of the most active form lines on earth. thanks for watching the green you feel worried about the planet meeting on meal host of the on the green funds out cost and to me it's clear remains to trade. join me for a deep dive into the green transformation for me, for you,

for the plans with. ah, ah, ah. he stumbles straddles the straight between europe and asia. time and time again, it shaken by unpredictable strong earthquakes where he stumbled assistant bowl is extremely at risk. and over the past, 50 years from this megacity has grown from a population of about 1000000 residents. to more than $15000000.00 won't have to understand is it's a race against the clock. posing a challenge to disaster management teams and local residents. the

city lacks buildings that come with stand quakes boxes, you 95 percent of all houses would have to be demolished. another victim, i go crazy on both my face a terrible situation. it's not causing quite itself, it's the aftermath to talk it through the scenario. or is it possible to predict the next big earthquake seismologists are developing a new method investment of hello, the best case scenario would be to put out a sort of bieber cur. where every day we could estimate, if there's a higher or lower risk of an earthquake up shuts off that full costing t far in advance has risks of its own. you saw that a bank of people would storm the banks, not a mock. they would storm the stores, you saw that they would turn on each other or their security forces or a plan in place for this type of scenario. we don't know about yoke. the count down

to size mana jests and emergency responders is own ah, ah, more than 15000000 people live in this coastal city. and it's becoming increasingly crowded. the boast, bruce straits divide system bowl into a european and an asian site. the region is particularly prone to us quakes ah, in 1999, less than 100 kilometers from the city center, an earthquake strikes. it's one of the worst in turkey's history. at least 18000

people die. hundreds of thousands left homeless, emergency responders are often too late. there is no working emergency plan or early warning system in place. mm. thousands of buildings collapsed like houses of cods, sandy, sub soil and shoddy construction a to blame. seismologists expect a similarly powerful earthquake in the coming years. this time right off the coast of it stumble. a good 1700 kilometers away at the german research center video sciences in potsdam, scientists monitor earthquakes all over the world. oh franklin's acknowledged, uncompromising nichols as mac seismologists miko bone half and his team studying the city on the prosperous. the earth's crust is especially unstable in the region

for he stumbled to see a good film extended on paul is extremely at risk. he got sick over the past 50 years. this megacity has grown from a population of about 1000000 residence, to more than 51000000 is owned and unfortunately, lot just off the coast of this don ball, there's an active plate boundary. and from what we can tell, it's under enormous stress, he tush fourish bond for shining of valley islands on a tremendous amount of energy is currently building up underground city. gun physic meant unable discussion of martial muscle dusty some working again who on unable almost like whole continent syrup sits the top tech tonic plates directly in front of a stumble in the sea of mamma. the eurasian plate meets the anatolia and plates forming a so called foot zone. typically

these plates push past each other bit by bit, and gas bubbles rise from the ocean floor. we can see this from footage taken by a french german turkish research team. mm. but right off the coast of a stumble, the plates a stock. we don't see the usual gas bubbles at spots where the earth's plates cannot move alongside each other. the pressure builds energy accumulates if it discharges the plates could move forward by up to 5 meters at once, triggering a violent earthquake. right in front of the coastal city. the government forecasts 30280000 deaths could result experts even say

a through nami is likely with waves as high as full meters of mine. shouldn't seismologists predict the earthquake will have a magnitude of at least 7 earthquakes and measured on a scale of one to 9.5 quakes with the magnitude of, for a felt by most people in the area. a magnitude 7 quake is considered particularly strong, consistent boon huffs team wants to use a new method to predict powerful as quakes like these in the future. i'll skip the guns, i often fall off. there's a series of indicators we can observe. a foreign earthquake strikes and if we can systematically record and evaluate them automatically in real time with them, it would essentially be possible to look at the beaver curve of a false own 24 hours a day when done and, and then issue warnings when necessary. oh, of on housekeeping. that would be revolutionary. duncan, m. d, so far,

early warning systems around the world to react at most a few seconds beforehand. linda was looking at you will think so cold seismographs registered the less powerful primary waves of an earthquake. sending a signal just seconds before the destructive, secondary wave stopped. ah, mexico city uses such a system in 2017, there were 2 particularly strong quakes here. ah, about 20 seconds beforehand. residents were warned by a public loudspeakers saving thousands of lives. this was possible because the epicenter, if the quake was fall outside the city, ah, in 2011, tokyo experienced one of the most severe earthquakes ever seen worldwide. the

cities residents were warned by a television radio and the internet nearly 80 seconds beforehand. ah. in those precious seconds, the city can shut off gas lines, switch traffic lights to read and bring trains to a halt. a stumble also has an early warning system, but it's only for the disaster management team. and the warning period is limited to just 5 seconds. will give you at the disaster coordination center that is not enough time to warn residents move, which is sort of the ciocca at the b c. because that time span is so short with people would not be able to escape in the event of a quake. and that's why our system is limited to preventing accidents or fires. for

example, by automatically turning off the gas up when you get a cache that have been employees of the local transport system and gas utility as well as firefighters are often on stand by in case of an earthquake. they also get some help from the computer software isla, depending on the magnitude and location of the quake, the program immediately calculate the number of potential death. oh, collapsed buildings, harmony, nordic downside. and then we have to compare the computers estimation with was actually going on a level to do this. we use information from the team that's on site, for example, the fire department, and then we can be confident we sending the right team to the right place in the future. residents must also be prepared. the disaster training center in cars, utah, an 8th grade class, is running through drill today. so how close is the danger in the move?

but this is the north anatoly informed zone. with fish, we are only 12 kilometers away from it here. and this is not that means a quake would be felt, especially strongly here. assimilated generates the quake with a magnitude of 6.7. the children only have a few seconds to duck under the table. it's important they remember to protect their heads when the quake is over, the students can run outside, but not before turning off gas and electrical appliances to prevent fires. if i only knew a little about earthquakes before this, but now i've experienced it and understand what to do. given the instructor jenkins

coll recommends, always having an emergency backpack ready to go. equipped with water, a flashlight, and a 1st aid kit. it off it. bouncing to the commissioner, guardian, professional aid won't come for the 1st 72 hours of a disaster is chunk of us and then therefore we must be prepared for survival until help arrives, which it turn the high ultimate we should lead, i'm attributed. but these tips are only useful if buildings and infrastructure can withstand the us quakes. on the european side of the city, a subway line is being extended civil engineer, mr. far matessa is supervising the project on behalf of the municipality is all in the district of katana. the tracks emerge above ground and cross

a bridge. it is supposed to be safe for an earthquake, up to a magnitude of $7.00. but the soil post is at risk. lake is in sight. we have to cover a long distance here, but the ground is very muddy and unstable because we're getting this is dangerous during quakes with the dea rama. that's why we dug very deep into the earth to connect the bridges pillars with stable ground. ball, almost all of a 70 meter long steel structure will anchor the bridge to from a ground lately, the subway control center. this is where emergency plans should take effect in the event of a quake. stop elevators. switch escalate is to move up only slow down and evacuate trains. ah

and then while we're filming this happens with o. a moderate us quake with a magnitude of 5.8. it's the city. it's the 2nd as quake within a matter of days. that hasn't been a situation like this for many years. she the navy, i was, it was a 1st settled, something struck my chair along and started shaking that we were evacuated immediately on me. now i'm here to pick up my child. good luck. cell phone service is disrupted them from making those who can try to reach their friends and family i and that is

a house is here are all old. so we were very afraid. i can't reach my family, the lines down. i'm also afraid to go home. don't look at you. i'm nervous, very nervous. i can't even picture what the big quake would be like in a coach. naturally, there are no death. so injuries but many buildings, including this minarette, a damaged one day later typhoon car. a man is the head of earthquake risk management for the city. he's faced with a big challenge. the city's warning system did not activate during the quake. ito, stealing a keen condition, you can't say the system worked as it should have to mean. we have 10 stations at

the moment, but we aren't receiving a signal from any of them, but not even yesterday. our task now is to build more stations and repair the 10 we already have. so this will also turkeys, conservative party ruled assemble for 25 years until the summer of 2019 carmen says the party did not do enough to prepare the city for earthquakes on the victim of unfortunately, we cannot say that is done bullies prepared for an earthquake to day typically, i know there are still buildings here that are in danger of collapsing matter to do that. after all, even the 5.8 magnitude quake caused major damage. that has the vehicle so long. oh, understood. the new city government wants to set new priorities today, carmen hosts representatives from the magda foundation at city hall for about 2 decades. this group of scientists, merchants, and crafts people,

has been trying to prepare is temple residents for the next big earthquake traumatized by the 1999 quake. they do not want to leave their fate in the hands of the state alone. our mission is that within the 1st 72 hours after a fight, every one is active in their own neighbourhood to production. we want to train $4.00 to $5.00 volunteers in each district to form a civilian disaster rescue tamer. so the new city administration wants to work together with the foundation for disaster management expert is denisia. this is a ray of hope. god, i did, we have come to the right place. he will support our projects developed them further. and he also has plans of his own on that of our calendar. the earthquake was a wakeup call for the whole city. as a panel discussion, the foundation magda informs residents about the dangers of earthquakes. there's

quite a bit of interest. there is denisia, tells them what they must have void at all costs is panic. native mach lineup when combating a disaster. the most important asset we have is people want, but only if those people are prepared and can act reflexively legacy to decline if they are not prepared with. and they become a liability against either usa because they panic and maybe give a point to them when i get to dick. oh, is it a different? i've gone ah, back him punk stem gemini. during the birth tree test, seismologists, marco bone huff has a breakthrough gigabytes collected up with. yeah, it's like he uses various types of stone to stimulate earthquakes and all source

inspire in the real world man. and there might be 100 or 200 years between 2 strong quakes. i fear we don't have that time. so instead, we simulate these processes at an accelerated rate. when we increase the pressure relatively quickly and then retrieve the measured values. so we can do our calculations for let's list ultimately we can recreate a complete cycle from one quake to the next within a few minutes. and often boone of tests a town with a sandstone sample, a press supplies, an enormous amount of pressure to the stone. the machine simultaneously registers acoustic signals that reveal what is happening to the stone internally or slowly the machine increases the pressure on the stone. it's as if 30 trucks were stacked up on one finger on the surface, it appears the stone hasn't changed. but the acoustic signals on the monitor show

another story. it's beginning to fracture more and more cracks become visible, like small miniature quakes higher than 15 minutes later, the stone breaks marco bone half says the same logic can be applied to large scale earthquakes deville for them, we're seeing all of this for shock activity before the point of fraction of impulse, and since that similar for all rock samples alleged, we're hopeful that we can apply this map. and as with us, it looks and from the world the scales, many, many quakes to signal a larger earthquake is coming. was this also the case with the september quake in its stumble? 50 holes. scientists from all over the world conduct research at the german research center for geo sciences in potsdam,

in the hope of predicting when earthquakes will strike. in addition to turkey, greece and italy to danger zones in europe, orders as were to do the main trigger as the african plates, which is pressing northwards towards the eurasian plates in the mediterranean. ah, in 2016 and as quake rattled central italy, nearly 300 people died, one as she was the collapse of many old buildings. this was not the case in japan which experienced a 9 point one magnitude as quake in 2011. ah, that nearly 20000 people died most from the resulting soon. know me. that slammed into the northeast and coast of the country. devastating the area ah, research to say adapting infrastructure is crucial. this is more kid. you would up

the earthquake that struck japan and 2011 is a good example. it's you. indeed, there was a lot of damage related to the su nami, but you know, but the buildings withstood due to compliance with earthquake resistance. standard denote bosses. me japan invests a lot of money in earthquake resistance construction, for example, offering subsidies for buildings with shock absorbing dampers. the money for this kind of technology isn't available in a stumble. we won't, if of course, you do perfect o. 3 factors must be considered low push versus the likelihood an earthquake will strike leaks 2nd and all the number of buildings and people that morning, unusual and 3rd 11, the quality of the construction or how vulnerable the buildings are. so a hot spot, in other words, a place where damage could be particularly great too,

has these 3 factors also. and we see that in istanbul, but also in cities like lima kito or mexico cities. yeah. on the vehicle to, to mexico. the biggest challenge now in istanbul is limiting the potential damage of a mega earthquake in the southwestern part of the city. the barcode neighborhood is particularly at risk, is denisia from the magda foundation has worked here for 12 years as a disaster prevention coordinator. she surveys the area with who's going to do a seismologists like your argument, give you a blockage the house is here, a very old, it's imperative we push a change in rebuild it. after the september quake, 2 buildings were evacuated over the facade shows

significant cracks. it goes by beth, i'm tired of the way the rec. the residents are alarmed and upset level type. ja jacob was young. 0, one of the buildings will be rebuilt. but the owners simply cannot agree on what to do with the other one. and another warrior bianca the room of the world. if a building is reported to the city is unsafe, it should be torn down. what do you run by law, but there's not enough funding to build a new that's why unsafe buildings. a still inhabited goes to show them a government only cares about prestige projects. it doesn't care about how people really lived, that they should it, oh,

i did it there from the. it's not just about the quake style. it's the immediate aftermath of would be terrible. gaskets are the fire department, one fires i be ignited by natural gas leaks. a lot of the car is an aviation fuel tank and gasoline definitely and, and yet there is still no precautions. lacey lay sambal the fires that could occur after a quite of the biggest risk to assemble. young good luck carry the sick romando. we have no time to lose owner. but our government in ankara prefers to plan an absurd new canal through east unbolted, which we must immediately prepare for a quaker. but they just aren't listening to us. it is accurate. all, all, do you know of a major city in europe has grown quite as fast in recent decades. what is lacking, however, are earthquake resistant to residential buildings. in recent years,

the turkish government has repeatedly tightened building regulations. but the chamber of civil engineers is skeptical of the construction industry. it's chairman jamal. good chair. stress is that just because the building is new, doesn't mean it's safe from earthquakes, mama, or cover it's a major. so point g was standalone. linda steady, retire, let beula until very recently the inspectors were chosen and paid by the builders themselves. part of the july, how independently can you inspect the person who's paying you know that the room at least since the 1st of january, 2019 inspectors are now selected through an electronic system on my yet smell. but even that does not suffice in a timber project or not nissan because they are often not trained well enough or not. i don't have special certificates. so a simple diploma is enough to get the job come. but we have

a serious problem with construction supervision in this country. yet not yet had the day that the city is growing rapidly. as a result it is becoming more and more crowded. and the risks of severe consequences from an earthquake are increasing. shindig again. sure. but that's the situation wherein right now it's a crime, isn't it? can one really live in a city like this will not of the government is i and these open spaces already my arch. there's sure to be construction here is on on it can't go on like this is yana will mother call muzzy on him. meanwhile, the state disaster management authority are found is raising awareness about the risks posed by earthquakes. with an elaborately produced t v commercial. ah . the message prepare for disaster said that

your neighborhood stays safe. how to go about this. however, there's no specified. instead the authority promises educational campaigns. ah, the reality on is symbols, strength is not as intellect as the commercial. in actuality, there are constant traffic jams, and more and more high rise buildings. the new city government knows this all too well. it is seeking solutions and has invited german seismologists miko boned off to is stumble. scientists from all over the world, adjoined by local rescue teams and associations to disgust the current situation. boone half delivers the opening speech assign of how much his work is appreciated.

the current knowledge of the mama hold indicates a maximum expected of reg, magnitude of $7.00. of course, this would not exclude a larger event as we have learned for dramatically in japan, in 2011. but based on historical data, this is probably a solid measure referenced all over the years boone houses team has worked with turkish disaster management authority to set up 7 measuring stations in the mama region. one who flattened impulsive us quake safety is a top priority for the cities. new. matt. a cram. e. mom. he is in close discussion with bone hoffen, other international scientists. their research will be incorporated into the new earthquake roadmap for a stumble. the ball young. i'm convinced, oh, this is an issue that the whole world must solve together. the book stumbled on nails imbued, shouldn't dip them. istanbul biggest problem when it comes to worth quakes is the

safety of its buildings risky shed. nearly 50000 buildings are at risk. different, even a mild quake can damage the legitimacy in libby ne, up with them at this poses a huge threat to the lives of tens of thousands of people. a busy mission and i'm to show the answer is not only to demolish houses and build new ones, thought it, but perhaps to strengthen existing buildings as well. that will be not loading richland, we must use this time very wisely to find quick and practical solution. so we can save people's lives, you saw that and john on the crew thought amount of them into any i paduka is also committed to finding solutions. but good can i is not working on predicting if an earthquake hurl strike days or hours ahead of time. he's focused on the seconds before the, quite like the malta, even though if we developed an early warning mobile app that alerted uses about the east anvil earthquake in september. go started to spot it off the customers or no much. so we've proven the app works. logan,

i'm now here to get support for it from the city. come from shoulder. my system in logan lesson was situated from august the autumn of chin. i pay goodness appointment was put off until a later date. the fear of a quake has been propelling him forward for years is stumble, doesn't have an early warning system like the one in tokyo or mexico city. so i pad, goodner, took matters into his own hands and developed a mobile app in 2017 and took one. it's designed to send a warning signal to people in the a stumble area, a few seconds before a major quake. the app can be purchased for the equivalent of around 2 euros a year. so far, governor has set up 6 measuring stations in the mama region using his own funds to day he is monitoring his station in the boutique mentioned district.

the sensor registers tiny tremors, 3 meters deep in the event of an earthquake. it measures the less powerful primary waves of the quake. it sends a signal to ap he is as 5 to 25 seconds before the stronger and more destructive, secondary waves. the warning time increases the further you are from the earthquakes, epi centre, some juggling spots, which mr. vick persisted, has proven itself up all our learners, but if there's only one station per location, there's a risk of false alarms from all the cost reasons. i've only set up one system at the spot, but it would be better to add one or even 2 stations every 3 kilometers and set up

a whole network. but he doesn't have the funds for that. each new station costs about 25000 years. currently, about 5000 people have downloaded his mo bile only a fraction in comparison to assembles 15000000 residence but good now believes in what he's doing. every 2nd counts all on yoda hawk of truth in 10 seconds. he could take shelter with your children. will yourselves or if you're driving a car, you can park it safely. you mustn't as if you were about to go inside a building or drive through a tunnel. you decide against it on your that visa seconds that save lives on your ledger. mm. that seconds are not enough for german seismologists,

mako boone huff. he wants to be able to warn the population hours before a quake. he is out on the sea of mamma. just off a stumble. exactly. we're a fold zone fall below the surface could trigger the next big quake. on the island is be kinda blown. hoffer set up a measuring station to help with his forecasts, but the station is hardly sending any signals at the moment. thus, the problem was to group, this is the largest island off the coast of istanbul, and these are predetermined measurement sites because they're closer to the faults on the phone. at home. the team is headed to the highest point of the island. a summit in the middle of a nature reserve g,

a seismic graphs were installed 300 meters deep into the earth and covered with concrete. using acoustic signals, they registered the smallest tremors that do not reach the surface. this way even many earthquakes have recorded the depths of the seismic graphs plays a critical role. yes, since 1st we have to try to get beneath the surface because in a metropolitan area like ist on bowl, there's a lot of background noise from infrastructure, wind, and weather. well, that's bad for us because we want to measure the signals as cleanly as possible, and that's why we have to go deep below the surface of things. but drilling deep down is expensive and we have to drill at least a few 100 meters. i'm so in this case i'm the compromise between the cost of drilling and meeting our requirements is 300 meters,

deep or not meta. construction around 300000 euros was financed by the gym and research center for geo sciences. the turkish authority, all fans and international donors, notice d d much. harold remembers how intensive the process was in a 2 must along the drilling here took a total of 9 months. the ground is made from very hard stone didn't miss. so drilling into it was very difficult, it's not on, it's one dash can it was also a mammoth task to bring these huge machines to the island to kish. it's and then the drill heads of the machines kept breaking off. i think we had to replace and 10 of them, the drilling company hated us by the end of it all. he's done if it told him. but the data from the seismic graphs is sent in almost real time via the internet to the disaster management authority. i'll find in ankara and to pulse them well with the team must now figure out why the signals are failing to send

a u. s. company manufacturers the senses. they are used in earthquake zones all over the world. technician sir, j. valensuela has come all the way from the us to help with maintenance. we have some problems with the fishing. seems like this are sending the data to the central station. so we thought of iraq was the problem. seems like is the rom, though? the digitize her has like a roman, so when it gets full, it will stop acquisition, because is how is design? because the seismic graphs are embedded, deep under ground, they cannot be swapped out. valensuela can only activate them by remote control or he come on, they didn't get here on our connectivity. boone half phones, his colleagues in potsdam to find out if the data has arrived from them. we repaired the data locker, but we know the data arrived in ankara and in 5 minutes will know if it arrived in

potsdam. but everything looks good widows mission accomplished, the data finally arrives impulse stem. in the meanwhile, up develop goodner had found a backer for his early warning system. a renowned is stumble geologist wants to further develop his own recess at gen. keanta rack wants to use cell phones to measure the shaking during an earthquake and compare it with the measurement data on site. something like this is not being done before. we want to combine these 2 functions in the app there from until now it's not been possible to measure how each building react to individuals during a quake. but with cell phones lying around the house,

we could measure that set of homeowners in the law much good couldn't meet the geologist is stumble technical university. they discuss how the app could be used to estimate damage after a quake. what can be a few years back? geologist chang, he attack was also working on a warning system to predict earthquakes. g yeah, yeah, that's no longer his priority because he considers it dangerous. yes. this have you all to saw so that if i could predict now that in 30 hours there will be an earthquake bunker. how would they control the money and turkish banks hopes to catch on? it would flee abroad on that about people would storm the banks. you saw that they would storm the stores use, they would turn on each other way. that bar there, sufficient security forces to prevent something like that. you put on that as well . is there a plan in place on it? you know, there isn't, i mean a limited therefore, even if there was

a way to predict earthquakes, our society would not be set up for it. because then you would need 2 and a half square meters of space outside per person. but there's no space in his stumble, alana. yeah, we don't even have $75.00 square centimeters per person. maybe. yeah, you just go to the city center. yeah. to booking the streets are 2 and a half meters wide. look the houses 6 stories high up. our mom, if one house collapses, the whole street is blocked on you. could a fire breaks out in just one house. it spreads to all of them with the billing the younger chicks. abacus oak, are you, are you? ah! only a few months have passed since the last quake in istanbul, on the 24th of january 2020, another earthquake strikes turkey. this time in the eastern part of the country, the quake is almost 30 times stronger than the september quake in 2019. at least 90 buildings collapse and 41 people die in the lousy region.

ah, survivors and risky workers, grave as the night temperatures of minus 8 celsius emergency units travel from its stem bull. the rescue work takes days. d, a physicist marco bone huff doesn't have much time left. unfortunately, that's exactly what research requires. but he does have new findings. the results of the september quake or in his thesis seems to be correct. one is in under the sea of mara. many, many quakes accumulated until the bigger quake with a 5.8 magnitude struck the cause of hand. the question is whether these fractures, the 4 shocks are signs of a larger earthquake worse one at the recent research is don't yet know if this is

a pattern that can be applied to all quakes. but the indications, the growing bone huff estimates that it will take another one to 2 years to see if the method is proved correct. oh really then will it be possible to develop a reliable, full costing system in best manner? hello, best case scenario would be to put out a sort of fever curve data where every day we could estimate it, there's a higher or lower risk of an earthquake. m residents would start to adjust to this . it would be like what we see with forecasting extreme weather or to sean. this is not yet the case with earthquakes, and there's a long road ahead to get there to submit for. but this is what we're aiming for. and we're working to improve this situation in systems of our best on the people of a stumble, only have

a real chance if priorities the set as quake resistant buildings. public mornings seconds before a quake and a longer lead, full cost. there is such is what cremains of race against time i. it is not only a time piece backed up piece of time on the fellow mashhad ham binds his passion for african storytelling with the measurement of our most precious resource time

design. as unique as it is, luxury is ah, every next 30 minutes on d w. o ah mania. i am hi, atlanta. see i knew sky, i am running for president of the republic of bellow, leaky b o n. ah. in john dunbar searches for the truth again. this time the exiled turkish journalist meets svetlana itsyana sky exiled leader of the opposition in bella rue school. i mean, of course i'm tired. i'm tired. physically untied. morally, it's too much on my shoulders,

but i have to hold this weight because i'm responsible for the future fall country for the people far behind the boss. she gardens of truth starts february 18th on d w. ah ah, this is did all the news live from berlin, syria doctors under enormous strain as they raised to provide care for earthquake victims. hospitals are facing shortages of staff and medicine with resources already stretched thin from more than a decade of war. also coming off hope.