will win, but also who will be on the team who will win the opening coin flip and even what the ads will include as your news update up as our coming up next is stumble has escaped the current disaster, but it's close to one of the most active fault zones in the world's talk film presents a close look at the risks facing turkey's metropolis. stay tuned for that or check us out online at w dot com. thanks so much for watching. ah night you could only to slip slip switch nicole shape limited. mean the switch like a gun, those whose tooth with his report, his book won't marry you poll. a story of resilience rushes more in ukraine one year since the invasion began in february on dw.

ah ah ah! it stumbles straddles the straight between europe and asia. time and time again, it shaken by unpredictable strong earthquakes where he stumbled assistant bull is extremely at risk. and over the past, 50 years from this manga city has grown from a population of about 1000000 residents to more than 15000000 own health understanding as it's a race against the conk, posing a challenge to disaster management teams and local residents. the

city lacks buildings that come withstand, quakes box shoot, 95 percent of all houses would have to be demolished. another victim angle, cassandra lafleur ice, a terrible situation. it's not causing quite itself, it's the aftermath to get to the scenario. what is it possible to predict the next big earthquake seismologists are developing a new method and best smell of hello. the best case scenario would be to put out a sort of bieber cur. where every day we could estimate, if there's a higher or lower risk of an earthquake up shuts law that full costing t far in advance has risks of its own. you saw that a bank of the people would storm the banks, not a mock. they would storm the stores, you saw that they would turn on each other or their security forces or a plan in place for this type of scenario. we don't know about your the count down

for size mala, jests and emergency responders is own ah, ah, more than 15000000 people live in this coastal city. and it's becoming increasingly crowded. the bowsprit, straits, divide system bull into a european and an asian side. the region is particularly prone to us quakes ah, in 1999, less than 100 kilometers from the city center, an earthquake strikes. it's one of the worst in turkey's history. at least 18000

people die. hundreds of thousands left homeless, emergency responders are often too late. there is no working emergency plan or early warning system in place. mm. thousands of buildings collapse like houses of cods, sandy, supp, soil and shoddy construction a to blame. seismologists expect a similarly powerful earthquake in the coming years. this time right off the coast of it stumble. a good 1700 kilometers away at the german research center for geo sciences in potsdam, scientists monitor earthquakes all over the world. for cleansing, now uncompromisingly causes size mala, just marco bone half, and his team studying the city on the prosperous. the earth's crust is especially unstable in the region for he stumbled to see

a good fear don't exist on people is extremely at risk. he got sick over the past 50 years, and this megacity has grown from a population of about 1000000 residents to more than 50 in millions. and unfortunately, most just off the coast of istanbul, there's an active plate boundary. and from what we can tell, it's under enormous stress heaters furbished bond push on it off in raleigh islands, on a tremendous amount of energy is currently building up under ground to consequent, unable to destruction of marshal of sd somewhere i wouldn't again, whom unable was like old continent syrup sits atop tectonic plates. directly in front of a stumbled in the sea of mamma. the eurasian plate meets the anatolia and plates forming a so called foot zone. but typically these plates push past each other bit by bit and gas bubbles rise from the ocean

floor. we can see this from footage taken by a french german turkish research team. mm . but right off the coast of a stumble, the plates a stock. we don't see the usual gas bubbles at spots where the earth's plates cannot move alongside each other. the pressure builds energy accumulates if it discharges the plates could move forward by up to 5 meters at once. triggering a violent earthquake right in front of the coastal city. the government forecasts 30280000 deaths could result experts even say a through nami is likely with waves as high as full meters of

monica, michigan. seismologists predict the earthquake will have a magnitude of at least 7 earthquakes and measured on a scale of one to 9.5 quakes with the magnitude of 4 felts by most people in the area. a magnitude 7 quake is considered particularly strong, consequent boone offs team wants to use a new method to predict powerful as quakes like these in the future. i'll skip the guns, i often fall off. there's a series of indicators we can observe for an earthquake strikes. and if we can systematically record and evaluate them automatically in real time with them, it would essentially be possible to look at the beaver curve of a false own 24 hours a day when done and, and then issue warnings when necessary. oh von, how's game that would be revolutionary? and so the, so far, early warning systems around the world to react at most

a few seconds beforehand. stores located you often feel too well. so cold. seismic graphs registered the less powerful primary waves of an earthquake. sending a signal just seconds before the destructive, secondary wave start. ah, mexico city uses such a system in 2017, there were 2 particularly strong quakes here. ah, about 20 seconds beforehand. residents were warned via public loudspeakers saving thousands of lives. this was possible because the epicenter, if the quake was far outside the city, ah, in 2011, tokyo experienced one of the most severe earthquakes ever seen worldwide. the cities residents were warned by

a television radio and the internet nearly 80 seconds beforehand. ah. in those precious seconds, the city can shut off gas lines, switch traffic lights to read and bring trains to a halt. a stumble also has an early warning system, but it's only for the disaster management team. and the warning period is limited to just 5 seconds. is it at the disaster coordination center that is not enough time to warn residents. lucas will that you should or the chocolate? the be sure, because that time span is so short with people would not be able to escape in the event of a quake. that's why our system is limited to preventing accidents, so fires, for example, by automatically turning off the gas and lay up once you get

a cache laudermill. employees of the local transport system and gas utility, as well as fire fighters, are often on standby in case of an earthquake. they also get some help from the computer software isla, depending on the magnitude and location of the quake. the program immediately calculates the number of potential deaths oh, collapsed buildings, harmony, garrick 1000th of it. then we have to compare the computers estimation with what's actually going on a level to do this, we use information from the team that's on site, but for example, the fire department in my room crisis, then we can be confident with sending the right team to the right place, rochelle methodical. residents must also be prepared at the disaster training center in casita. an 8th grade class is running through drills to day. so how close is the danger room long?

this is the north anatoly and falls zone variable choir. for you. with this, we are only 12 kilometers away from it here in this district. so you that means a quake would be felt especially strongly here. assimilated generates a quake with a magnitude of 6.7. the children only have a few seconds to duck under the table. it's important they remember to protect their heads. when the quake is over, the students can run outside, but not before turning off gas and electrical appliances to prevent fires. if i only knew a little about earthquakes before this, but now i've experienced it and understand what to do. given the instructor gent

hancock recommends, always having an emergency backpack ready to go. equipped with water, a flashlight and a 1st aid kit. it off it bouncing up to the commissioner. god, professional aid won't come for the 1st 72 hours of a disaster. this jungle silicon therefore we must be prepared for survival until help arrived, which it turned the high altima we should lead, i'm it riveted. but these tips are only useful if buildings and infrastructure can withstand the us quakes on the european side of the city, a subway line is being extended civil engineer, mr. family taser is supervising the project on behalf of the municipality is all in the district of katana. the tracks emerge above ground and cross

a bridge. it is supposed to be safe for an earthquake, up to a magnitude of $7.00. but the soil post is at risk. lake is in sight. we have to cover a long distance here, but the ground is very muddy and unstable. drucquer we're getting. this is dangerous during quakes. the overall martin, that's why we dug very deep into the earth to connect the bridges pillars with stable ground. all almost all of a 70 meter long steel structure will anchor the bridge to from a ground. ladies, the subway control center. this is where emergency plans should take effect in the event of a quake. stop elevators. switch escalate is to move up only slow down and evacuate trains. ah

and then while we're filming this happens with o. a moderate as quake with a magnitude of 5.8. it's the city. it's the secondary quake within a matter of days, that hasn't been a situation like this for many years. she the navy, i was, it was a 1st settled, something struck my check along then it started shaking. exactly. we were evacuated immediately, omega, now i'm here to pick up my child. good luck cellphone service is disrupted them from making those who can try to reach their friends and family i. and that is a house is here are all old. so we were very afraid. i can't reach my family,

the lines are down. i'm also afraid to go home. don't look at you. i'm nervous, very nervous. i can't even picture what the big quake would be like in a coach. naturally, there are no deaths. so injuries but many buildings including this minarette, a damaged one day later typhoon carman is the head of earthquake risk management for the city. he's faced with a big challenge. the cities warning system did not activate during the quake. each of the st. louis mckee, condition, you can't say the system worked as it should have doing. we have 10 stations at the moment, but we aren't receiving a signal from any of them,

but not even yesterday. our task now is to build more stations and repair the 10 we already have solosec turkeys, conservative party ruled assemble for 25 years until the summer of 2019 car. a man says the party did not do enough to prepare the city for earthquakes. on the victim was unfortunately, we cannot say that is done. bull is prepared for an earthquake to day. typically, i know there are still buildings here that are in danger of collapsing, matter to delay after all, even the 5.8 magnitude quake caused major damage. because a lot older still, the new city government wants to set to new priorities. to de carmen hosts representatives from the magda foundation at city hall for about 2 decades. this group of scientists, merchants, and crafts people, has been trying to prepare it's temple residence for the next big earthquake

traumatized by the 1999 quake. they did not want to leave their fate in the hands of the state alone. our mission is that within the 1st 72 hours after a fight, everyone is active in their own neighbourhood. we want to train $4.00 to $5.00 volunteers in each district to form a civilian disaster rescue tamer. after the new city administration wants to work together with the foundation for disaster management experts is denisia. this is a ray of hope thought i did. we have come to the right place, he will support our projects, developed them further, and he also has plans of his own on that of our calendar. the earthquake was a wake up call for the whole city. as a panel discussion, the foundation magda informs residents about the dangers of earthquakes. there's

quite a bit of interest is denisia tells them what they must have void at all. costs is panic, native mcloughlin combating a disaster. the most important asset we have is people want, but only if those people are prepared and can act reflexively. i even get the, the decline. if they are not prepared, then they become a liability against either usa, the kazi, they panic. so if you give a point to them, and i get to dick, oh yeah, big difference i just gaudy ah, back him hunt stam gemini during the birth tree test seismologists mako bone hoff has a breakthrough, couple of gigabytes connecting up with it. he uses various types of stone to simulate earthquakes, and will switch inspire in the real world man. and there might be 100 or 200 years

between 2 strong quakes. i fear we don't have that time. so instead, we simulate these processes at an accelerated rate when we increase the pressure relatively quickly, and then retrieve the measured values. so we can do our calculations for let's list . ultimately, we can recreate a complete cycle from one quake to the next within a few minutes and often boone of tests a town with a sandstone sample. a press supplies an enormous amount of pressure to the stone. the machines simultaneously registers acoustic signals that reveal what is happening to the stone internally war. slowly the machine increases the pressure on the stone. it's as if 30 trucks were stacked up on one finger. on the surface it appears the stone hasn't changed, but the acoustic signals on the monitor show another story. it's beginning to

fracture more and more cracks become visible like small miniature quakes. in 15 minutes later, the stone breaks marco bone half says the same logic can be applied to large scale earthquakes is in for them. we're seeing all of this for shock activity before the point of fracture and impulse. and since that, similar for all rock samples alleged, we're hopeful that we can apply this method was with us. it looks and from a well on the scale. many, many quakes to signal a larger earthquake is coming. was this also the case with the september quake in its stumble? 50 scientists from all over the world, conduct research at the german research center for geo sciences in potsdam, in the hope of predicting when earthquakes will strike. in addition to turkey,

grease and italy to danger zones in europe, orders has residue. the main trigger is the african plate, which is pressing northwards towards the eurasian plates in the mediterranean awe. in 2016 and as quake rattled central italy, nearly 300 people died. one, as she was the collapse of many old buildings. this was not the case in japan which experienced a 9 point one magnitude as quake in 2011. ah, that nearly 20000 people died most from the resulting soon know me. that slammed into the northeast and coast of the country. devastating the area ah, research is say, adapting infrastructure is crucial. this is market you would up the earthquake that

struck japan and 2011 is a good example. it's indeed there was a lot of damage related to the su nami, but you know, but the buildings withstood due to compliance with earthquake resistant standard denote bosses. me japan invests a lot of money in earthquake resistance construction. for example, offering subsidies for buildings with shock absorbing dampers. the money for this kind of technology isn't available in a stumble. we will shift caulsey date, perfecto, 3 factors must be considered low push versus the likelihood an earthquake will strike leaks. second, in the number of buildings and the bullets morning, unusual and 3rd in the quality of the construction or how vulnerable the buildings are. so a hot spot, in other words, a place where damage could be particularly great. has these 3 factors actually,

and we see that in istanbul, but also in cities like lima kito or mexico cities. yeah. on the vehicle to to mexico. the biggest challenge now in istanbul is limiting the potential damage of a mega earthquake in the southwestern part of the city. the barcode neighborhood is particularly at risk whose denisia from the magda foundation has worked here for 12 years. as a disaster prevention coordinator. she surveyed the area with who's going to do a seismologists give you a plot to pick the houses here, a very old it's imperative who pushed a change in rebuild the limits after the september quake, 2 buildings were evacuated. old, the facade shows significant cracks. you with those

that are trying to get the, the rec, the residents are alarmed and upset type is it your project? 0, one of the buildings will be rebuilt, but the owners simply cannot agree on what to do with the other one. maria, be audio yellow room of the world. if a building is reported to the city is unsafe, it should be torn down. what do you run by law, but there's not enough funding to build a new that's why unsafe buildings. a still inhabited goes to show them a government only cares about prestige projects. it doesn't care about how people really lived, but they should it. oh, i did it from the,

it's not just about the quake style. it's the immediate aftermath of would be terrible. gaskets are the fire department, one fires. i big nighted by natural gas. lancelot, africa is an aviation fuel tank and gasoline, dep, holy. and yet there is still no precautions. lacy les scrambling the fires that could occur after quite of the biggest risk the assembled young. good luck try with the dick romando. we have no time to lose yonder. but our government and ankara prefers to plan an absurd new canal through east unbolted, which we must immediately prepare for a wiggle, but they just aren't listening to us. it is accurate. all game of no other major city in europe has grown quite as fast in recent decades. what is lacking, however, are earthquake resistant to residential buildings. in recent years,

the turkish government has repeatedly tightened building regulations. but the chamber of civil engineers is skeptical of the construction industry. it's chairman jamal. good chair. stress is that just because the building is new? doesn't mean it's safe from earthquakes cover? it's a major. so point g wa stanolin and then the steady retiree let it move. you along until very recently the inspectors were chosen and paid by the builders themselves . pollard, you know, how independently can you inspect the person who's paying you know that the room at least since the 1st of january, 2019 inspectors are now selected through an electronic system i yet smell. but even that does not suffice in a tim your project or not nissan, because they're often not trained well enough or not. i don't have special certificates. so a simple diploma is enough to get the job comp. but we have a serious problem with construction supervision in this country. yet not yet had

the day that the city is growing rapidly. as a result, it is becoming more and more crowded, and the risks of severe consequences from an earthquake are increasing. shindig again sure. bradley, the situation wherein right now it's a crime, isn't it? can one really live in a city like this? will not the government is i and these open spaces already my arch, there's sure to be construction here is on, on it can't go on like this. ayana will, will mother who, muzzy on him. meanwhile, the state disaster manage mental sorority are found is raising awareness about the risks posed by earthquakes. with an elaborately produced t v commercial. ah. the message prepare for disaster said that your neighborhood stays safe. how to go

about this however, is not specified. instead, the authority promises educational campaigns. oh, the reality on his symbols, strength is not as a delicate as the commercial in actuality, there are constant traffic gems, and more and more high rise buildings. the new city government knows this all too well. it is seeking solutions and has invited german seismologists miko boned off to is stumble. scientists from all over the world are joined by local rescue teams and associations to discuss the current situation. boone health delivers the opening speech assign of how much his work is appreciated . the current knowledge of the mama ruffled indicates

a maximum expected earthquake magnitude of $7.00. of course, this would not exclude a larger event as we have learned full dramatically in japan and 2011, but based on historical data, this is probably a solid measure installed over the years bone houses team has worked with turkish disaster management authority to set up 7 measuring stations in the mama region, one who slot and then for us quake safety is a top priority for the cities. new. matt a cram. e mom. he is in close discussion with bone huff and other international scientists. their research will be incorporated into the new earthquake roadmap for a stumble. the ball young. i'm convinced oh, this is an issue that the whole world must solve together. the stumbled analysis dim view showed on different est, on bull's biggest problem when it comes to worst quakes is the safety of its buildings. risky. shared nearly 50000 buildings are at risk. different, even

a mild quake can damage them. which mazda in libby ne, up with them, if this poses a huge threat to the lives of tens of thousands of people busy mission. and i am the sure the answer is not only to demolish houses and build new ones, thought it, but perhaps to strengthen existing buildings as well. that will be not loading richland, we must use this time very wisely to find quick and practical solution. so we can save people's lives in some that and john on the crew thought a mock of an engineer. paduka is also committed to finding solutions. but good to know is not working on predicting if an earthquake, rural strike days or alice ahead of time. he's focused on the seconds before the, quite like the malta, a live, if we developed an early warning mobile app that alerted uses about the east anvil earthquake in september. go starting to sputter, bit off the customs of knowledge. so we've proven the app works organ. i'm now here

to get support for it from the city. come from shoulder, most system in logan lesson was he should get a quote on this theater machine. i pay goodness appointment was put off until a later date. the fear of a quake has been propelling him forward for years. a stumble doesn't have an early warning system like the one in tokyo or mexico city. so i per goodner took matters into his own hands and developed a mobile app in 2017 to it's designed to send a warning signal to people in the stumble area, a few seconds before a major quake. the app can be purchased for the equivalent of around 2 euros a year. so far, governor has set up 6 measuring stations in the mama region using his own funds to day he is monitoring his station in the boutique mentioned district.

the sensor registers tiny tremors, 3 meters deep in the event of an earthquake. it measures the less powerful primary waves of the quake. it sends a signal to ap he is as 5 to 25 seconds before the stronger and more destructive, secondary waves. the warning time increases the further you are from the earthquakes epicenter some juggling spots, which mr. vick persistent has proven itself all along. but if there's only one station per location, there's a risk of false alarms. all the cost reasons. i've only set up one system at the spot, but it would be better to add one or even 2 stations every 3 kilometers and set up

a whole network. but he doesn't have the funds for that. each new station costs about 25000 euros. currently, about 5000 people have downloaded his mo bile. only a fraction in comparison to assembles 15000000 residence but good. no believes in what he's doing. every 2nd counts all on yoda talk of truth in 10 seconds. you could take shelter with your children will yourselves. although if you're driving a car you can park it safely. you mustn't as if you were about to go inside a building or drive through a tunnel. you decide against it on your that visa seconds that save live off on your ledger. that seconds and not enough for german seismologists marco bone half. he wants to be able to warn the population hours before

a quake. he is out on the sea of mom or a just of a stumble. exactly where a fault zone far below the surface could trigger the next big quake on the island is decoder. don't half a set up a measuring station to help with his forecasts. but the station is hardly sending any signals at the moment. thus, the problem was he goes, this is the largest island off the coast of vist, encore. and these are pre determined measurements sites because point of the islands a summit in the middle of a nature reserve m g s seismographs were installed 300 meters deep into the earth and covered with

concrete. using acoustic signals, they registered the smallest tremors that do not reach the surface. this way, even many earthquakes have recorded the depths of the seismic graphs plays a critical role. yes, since 1st we have to try to get beneath the surface because in a metropolitan area like istanbul, there's a lot of background noise from infrastructure, wind, and weather. well, that's bad for us because we want to measure the signals as cleanly as possible, and that's why we have to go deep below the surface of seamless. but drilling deep down is expensive and we have to drill at least a few 100 meters on. so in this case, i'm the compromise between the cost of drilling and meeting our requirements is 300 meters deep down at meta construction, around 300000 euros was financed by the gym and research center for geo sciences. the turkish authority, all fans and international donors notice surface detail much. harold remembers how

intensive the process was. you said in a tumult to long the drilling here took a total of 9 months to start. the ground is made from very hard stone, really mythical. so drilling into it was very difficult, it's not on it's one dash feet. it was also a mammoth task to bring these huge machines to the island kish it. and then the drill heads of the machines kept breaking off it. i think we had to replace 10 of them. the drilling company hated us by the end of it all is done if it took so long . but the data from the size mcgross is sent in almost real time via the internet to the disaster. manage until sorority are found in ankara and to pulse them well with the team must now figure out why the signals are failing to send a u. s. company manufacturers, the senses, they are used in earthquake zones all over the world. technician, sir, j. valensuela has come all the way from the us to help with maintenance. we have

some problems with the fishing. seems like this. i send the data to the central station. so we try to figure out was the problem, seems like is the round, the digitize her has like a roman site when he gets full, it will stop acquisition because his house design. because the seismic graphs are embedded, deep under ground, they cannot be swapped out. valensuela can only activate them by remote control. he come on, they didn't get here on dark honesty that's did moon ha phones, his colleagues in potsdam to find out if the data has arrived from or grammar. we repaired the data locker, but we know the data arrived in ankara and in 5 minutes will know if it arrived in potsdam. but everything looks good widows mission accomplished, the data finally arrives impulse stem. in

the meanwhile, up the developer has found a backer for his early warning system. a renowned is stumble geologist wants to further develop his own. professor gen keanta rack wants to use cell phones to measure the shaking during an earthquake and compare it with the measurement data on site. something like this is not been done before. we want to combine these 2 functions in the amp, their problem until now it's not been possible to measure how each building react individually during a quake. but with cell phones lying around the house, we could measure that that a former law much good can meet the geologist. it is stumble technical university. they discuss how the app could be used to estimate damage after

a quake. what can be a few years back geologist? chang, he l tack who is also working on a warning system to predict earthquakes. g. yanni? yup. that's no longer his priority because he considers it dangerous. yeah. this, as you ought to saw, so that if i could predict now that in 30 hours there will be an earthquake bank a lot. how would they control the money in turkish banks? it's a catch up, it would flee abroad, but people would storm the bank. you know, they would storm the stores if they would turn on each other way. that bar there, sufficient security forces to prevent something like that. you know, is there a plan in place on, you know, there isn't, i mean a little therefore, even if there was a way to predict earthquakes, i mean, our society would not be set up for it because then you would need to and a half square meters of the space outside per person. but there's no space in istanbul, aleki, we don't even have $75.00 square centimeters per person. maybe. yeah,

you just go to the city center. got it booking the streets are 2 and a half meters wide. the houses 6 stories, high apartment, if one house collapses, the whole street is blocked. like a fire breaks out in just one house. it spreads to all of them with the billing the younger chicks, every diesel car you. ah, only a few months have passed since the last quake in a stumble on the 24th of january 2020. another earthquake strikes turkey. this time in the eastern part of the country. the quake is almost 30 times stronger than the september quake in 2019. at least 90 buildings collapse and 41 people die in the lousy region. ah, survivors and rescue workers brave overnight temperatures of minus 8 celsius emergency units travel from his stumble. the rescue work takes days.

geophysicist, marco bohn half doesn't have much time left. unfortunately, that's exactly what research requires. but he does have new findings. the results of the september quake, or in his thesis, seems to be correct or under the sea of mara. many, many quakes accumulated until the bigger quake with a 5.8 magnitude struck equals offender. big question is whether these fractures the 4 shocks are signs of a larger earthquake worse one at the recent research is don't yet know if this is a pattern that can be applied to all quakes. but the indications that growing boone huff estimates that it will take another one to 2 years to see if the method is

proved correct. oh really then will it be possible to develop a reliable, full costing system in best smile? a fellow best case scenario would be to put out a sort of fever curve data where every day we could estimate if there's a higher or lower risk of an earthquake em residents would start to adjust to this . and it would be like what we see with forecasting extreme weather or to sean. this is not yet the case with earthquakes. and there's a long road ahead to get there to submit for. but this is what we're aiming for. and we're working to improve this situation. in systems of our best on the people of a stumble, only have a real chance if priorities is set as quake resistant buildings public mornings seconds before a quake and

a longer lead full cost. the research is what cremains of race against time. i wish it is not only a time piece backed piece of time on a fellow mashhad combines his passion for african storytelling with the measurement of our most precious resource time design. as unique as it is, luxury is ah efraim linux in

30 minutes on d. w. o, ah, she's got, it's just a thought so crazy for a story that can change your mind just to click away. find out best documentary is on you to see the world already subscribe. now. t d w documentary

ah, this is d w y from berlin. after the devastation in turkey, arrests are being made. officials detained those allegedly involved in faulty construction of buildings that have crashed at thousands today. we will have the latest updates for you.