getting ahead in tech, as our documentary series of founders, valley is africa to meet the founders, empowering their continent through digital innovation. to transform on working and living conditions in their country and inspiring world with their ideas. on the belly africa watching a documentary nearly a year after putting launched his attack on ukraine. nato says rush as much feared to spring offensive is already underway. both sides are suffering painful losses and running through vast stocks of ammunition as they wage. a fierce battle for small gains in the east of the country in strategically important bi mode,

for example, months of unrelenting assault by the private mercenary group 5. now have taken a bloody toll on both sides and destroyed the city. protein needs wagner to succeed . but the groups later you have get a play gushing and says the battle is far from over. where does that leave the other side as ammunition stocks, dwindle and casualties rise, we are asking proteins latest offensive. how is nato responding with hello and welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to greet our guests. laura font daniels is head of the research division, the america's at the german thank tag w s w p. and it's a great pleasure to welcome my colleague vladimir as cheap off. he is originally

from st. petersburg and works on d w's, russian desk, and were very pleased to have with us natasha coleman yoke. she is a freelance conflict reporter from ukraine who heads the independent broadcaster homogeneity tv, and founded the public interest journalism lab. she joins us from tia by skype. vladimir, with the 1st anniversary of the russian invasion looming, vladimir putin would like to have some successes to show will. um, in fact, russian forces gratify that wish his desperate need to deliver some kind of victory to the russian public next to it because he will be broken to russian permanent, mixed, lucrative, and all speech to the mission. so iran expecting a kind of rational offensive in eastern the green book, those signs of trying to start such a for him. so if in a recent 3 weeks and through some days, but there's no major success. success on this, can you say

a little bit more about that because the battle particularly for validity on the eastern front in done yet, is seen as an opening move in this much dreaded spring offensive by russia. there are varying reports about the scale of russian losses and also about russia's capacity to keep sending new forces. what do you know about that? in the po, no, not march or everything from open sources is smarter the vest on public knows the russian losses was indeed huge. there are numbers circulating of 1000 russian troops doesn't on the 2 days of the air filter their pictures from, from drones or of dozens of russian thanks, destroyed by you carrying and fire. so it was barely managed to rush and try to start offensive in their area for cuba. natalia can ukraine's forces stand up to a russian army with what appears to be a steady supply of new recruits, albeit,

largely untrained once. so you mentioned before it or no, the operation to buy the russians to overtake bombs, started in march last year. so it's lasting almost 11 months. and there was no major pest. of course, it's closed. but even using this wagner group, i is notorious, but probably considered to be one of the most capable in december ski l. there is no major success. and also if you speak about this russian military week or is sometimes especially within this last months, this one will be expected. very tough winter. yes. there are casualties among the ukrainian soldiers. yes, i hear and i know about many, so it's really cool and tragic. but at the same time, russian sometimes report about over taking the village, which technically has 33 residents, you know, so, you know, mentioning a number of the towns, yes. same pool. and there are people there they left,

the towns are destroyed. but really they are really mine the towns nobody would ever heard. so this, this really shows that it's for russia even like taking a small town at this stage isn't really an easy way. so ukrainians of course are prepared for larger, larger friends in the don bus. and from the russian border in park, your region was probably, but still, there are no like real concerns about we're taking any, you know, carried through which was which was invaded by russia. you know, a year ago, laura mean have ukraine's western allies, including the us defense secretary are raising a lot of concerned about whether they can supply enough ammunition in future. apparently there's even been talk about here artillery units of ukraine needing to ration i think that is what the nature defines. menaces have been discussing now is

how to solve that. no. jessica problem i think, is the general secretary of nato set. and that will be key because we can not only count on the level of of vision on the ukrainian side and then the determinist of ukrainian soldiers. but they will also needs additional military support and ammunition, that's obvious. italian. some u. s. military experts are saying that it is unrealistic to try to hold back mote. you mentioned that very long and very bloody battle that has been going on. in fact, it is the bloodiest of all of the battles so far in this war. so some u. s. military experts are saying, perhaps ukraine needs to concentrate on its own counter offensive and stop seeking to defend. are you seeing any signs that ukrainian leaders are taking that advice and preparing to give up on the city?

so from what we understand, of course, we can, and we do not know that much about you know, the details of the military operations. the whole a battle is a very complex process of taking tub decisions by the ukrainian army. sometimes they might lose that we, which might lose a smaller town, but i know that there is always a courses decision to lead when it's necessary. we have examples of that have been going with the chance for the major towns which were actually lost in the course of this war. and that happened the last time, more or less in may and june of the last year. so that might be possible, but it's always explained by the planned retreat. if it's, if it's necessary, the point of bar codes would we understand it's pretty strategic, so forth. if to a close to open this place, you know, that might be attacked because the for the city because what we really understand,

you know, what about the just negotiation of the wheel? it's really very practical and tactical. the for the russians are the less the shelling ukrainian mainland, the great town, so the ukrainians ought to keep the russians as far as possible. the head of the russian mercenary group, wagner has compared the battle for bach. moved to a meat grinder and clearly thinks that his forces are better prepared to withstand the grinding than their ukrainian opponents or even regular russian troops. yet wagner forces to have taken massive casualties. a battle field and a netscape corpses. as far as the i can see, they are soldiers from the wagner group, a paramilitary organization. many of the fighters or mud arisen criminals, recruited from russian prisons and sent to war by a guinea pig, goes in founder of wagner. and putin confident he promised the convict

freedom if they survived 6 months at the front, apparently with moscow's blessing. bureau m no goody, of the soldiers have years of experience fighting. it is probably the most experienced army in the world at the moment, and they perform their duties independently. ups of $50000.00, wagner mercenaries are set to be fighting in ukraine. they are considered extremely ruthless and operate in secret. the group is particularly active around the front bind city of back most their pre gulshan had allegedly recently achieved decisive combat successes and publicly praised his private army for it. however, he claims that he has no political ambitions but pusan does not seem to trust him. the russian military command is now set to be taking the lead in frontline, fighting, relying on its own soldiers. is a power struggle looming in the kremlin with that

question straight away to you that a mere what do you think? short answer. no, there is no power struggle in kremlin or no borrow struggle in kremlin yet. but there is growing science among the rationalists that some parts of the russian that it's, are not happy with the russian ministry of defense in the russian army. and even you, because i'm trying to use the warrens ukraine and so in the very same way as a lead in europe, which uses the orange. it's now $9.00 to $92000.00. because for letting me put in, it was a trampling that was a start of his biggest, but it be good. political, courier, it was a start of his beach for russian president the warranty. and then to name again. but it wasn't positions himself as a very effective, very brutal, very deceased, if needed the leader in the very same base wouldn't, wouldn't use the warranted now 2524 years ago. think ocean and frank gushing, not only control was the wagner mercenary,

gro pit he also has claimed responsibility for the famous internet research agency, the troll a factory. that in fact, meddled in the us elections in 2016. how powerful does that make him? who, what is interesting about him, he claimed the orange of, of pro fabric anson for his book, and claim to do orange of, of wagner group. recently, he came from the shade of the russian politics because eric, his whole business was in a shed, or he was never admitting that he is an owner of thought from reconsider his book and the wagner group in the recent beaks and months, he opened lou stent and in the public and saith, yes, it's me, yes, it's me. and he is pushing more and more in the russian public is getting more inter with his with his and came self is a kind of public figure in the russian politics. laura, as we heard in the report progression says he has no political ambitions. he's often known as puddings cook,

because in fact that is exactly what he once was. or what are western security services. hang about it all, do they see him as a real rival to put in the question and is really whether they would matter or not . if he is a real rival or not, it would only matter, i guess, if they are, there would be a completely different policy coming along with a new leadership and russia right in new position on ukraine, a change in the cause of the war on the russian side, and i don't think anyone can expect that from him. so therefore, i think it's very reasonable to think about how to support ukraine rather than trying to read at the different lines within the, in fighting on the russian side. and in the russian powerhouse are elite, now the, the u. s. is put our wagner on the terrorism list. it considers frigo gene,

a war criminal distinct that makes any difference where it, it will eventually or one day there will be trials, i'm sure. and, and of course, the u. s. has a significant arms is sort of vested interest in having him go to court or also because of the manipulations in the u. s. election. so that's another sort of key interest and the you aside both for humans of sound of recognition because in the russian barrel boy in the russian balls struggle, american sanctions is for russian federal to for so long like pre gordon is the sign of recognition. she's proud to be sanction spoken out of if you proud to do this all this pro, occasions toward diverse because it's the new russian ideology reboot or they were, it takes us to bridge the united states natalia as i mentioned at yes, please. yeah, i in fact wanted to, to join to a discussion about it because what's interesting, but it's not a power struggle between teaching and pre gordon,

but between different groups in the russian military. so progression was famous for criticizing the russian army and telling like give me the hours and we'll show you that it should be different. that exactly happened in december. but on the wagner joined in the separation of the book. but from what we can say that they're absolutely successful, you know, after the months. so now he's kind of hasn't managed to prove what he was supposed . and the wagner, of course, these 2 types of their people, the former convicts who died and must, and they are left escaping. and of course, the mercenary, which also has a different, would have a different written ability because they're not regular troops because we just usual prisoners of war. their medicine, their well trained because they fought in syria for the molly elsewhere. but also they proven to be not that good, it doesn't mean the cranium some of die. and again, i should say, we should remind about that that the price,

the desk of the price is high for the crane, but still he did manage. so that is quite an interesting period. vladimir the grey zone, which is a social media platform that is associated in fact with wagner, has castigated russian commanders in the regular army for the losses invalid are and also in the region and called them to be held accountable. for their, their public trials. what kind of an influence does that and do the attacks by russian military bloggers on the, the regular russian forces? what kind of influence does that have on the russian public as a whole? it's not the 1st time that the general grades on which belongs to pre collision, they can direct military command, free goes in itself. took to the cameras in the morning. i've sort of a john grease on again, on the one of the us military brook, excuse you, in which video she screeches, i think russian army in russian general comment or the birth leadership in the

ukraine. it's has huge follower soup in the us of those. so called military braga, which goes dozens and hundreds of thousands of followers. they are people which are embedded with the russian troops on the russian side than the eastern ukraine. and they are quite influential. thoughtful for want and for 2nd, it's quite important source of knowing about the disconnect while the russian part of russian military commence in the ukraine. 2 questions. first of all, could that spark at the military blogger is the grease out? could that spark a higher level of public dissatisfaction with put in and are you seeing a brutalization and perhaps are so a radicalization of public opinion in general? and then there's not a brutalization of public opinion in general. and also there's a consolidation of the public opinion, the russian because iran is like patriots. non patriots left the country. a label

test, traitorous bait because in itself because and told the bishop should destroy traitors . first of all, because of the irrational would stopping us to fight the ukraine. so these nor radicalization in russia, but the very much of consolidation aren't meant in the 1st christian, the route. what was the 1st question i had asked you whether you think it could spark broader dissatisfaction with putting himself non rude will not spark the brother dissertation report him because the public opinion, russert doesn't play any watch roles in the political process because the political it's also considered burbs, the real been not public protestant public brussel goose can ever put him because you're run the zip code for posterity. kroganow. laura, what do you think that the in fighting in the kremlin and the re shuffle of ukraine's military command would mean for the duration of the conflict and are

so for putting the future is so i think both sides now are really and dependent on chewing military gains and winds. and everyone is sort of focused on the spring because we're expecting offensive on the russian side . and also i think there's a great hopes in it. expectations in the u. s. that you ukrainians will be able to gain territory and, and will be able to if eventually it gets the negotiations be in a different bargaining position than before. oh because they're so much support and the military is higher than human, terran, 8 and so on. coming from the west that the ukrainians need to show that their effective and, and, and a successful i'm so imagining put in, not making any gains, obviously leads to reduce his power position. i think it would be the same even in an authoritarian regime as it is in democracy for zelinski. i think it counts on

both side needs victory in italy, deliver something to the russian public. verizon. let's say dig deeper on that question with regard to a weapons. as russia and ukraine battle for every metre of land. nato's head has said that the conflict has become a race of logistics. no sooner did a trans atlantic coalition. a sent to kias longstanding plea for battle tanks than key of presented its next request. will ammunition and materiel arrive in time. and what more does ukraine need? ah tanks miss isles and jets. ukraine needs more weapons to defend itself against russian attacks, and it needs them as soon as possible. the front lines are lacking essentials and everybody's not asking for more ammunition. insufficient ammunition supplies, long delivery times of weapons,

and training of ukrainian soldiers. while russians new offensive has long since gotten underway, nato states are coming under increasing pressure. so yes, we have a chance. yes, we have a problem. but the problems order to be sold and we are addressing that problem and we have struck the juicer to sold with both in the short term muscle longer term, a to us mobilized defense industry. in other words, nato states must continue to provide arms to ensure ukraine continues to be supplied with weapons. in addition, stipend back is no longer ruling out. the delivery of fighter jets to ukraine. nato is joining forces. is it enough to put pollution on the defensive? let me put that question straight away to you. natalia, is it enough? it is not enough and it's always a bit too late and the price of that is the life,

both of the civilians and of the military. but to bring this discussion to the point, you know, it's really not, it's of course, about the weapon, but for me, coming from the ground off a journalist who was reporting human rights. i should really is say, now following this call for the weapon delivery. i can clearly explain that, you know, neither her son and her son region couldn't be a liberated without this weapon, no hard region, which is a huge part and the life is returning back to the stones. you know, we were there, we know about, you know, people and months attacked, repressed, killed, tortured, so, and now after some months of the life is, it's not perfect, but it's getting to be normal. so it's doable. also what i've also observed myself, you know, i was from, it was very interesting to admit that when we saw the result of the attacks from the high mirth, particularly artillery, you don't,

it's very precise. and when you go to the liberated towns where ukrainians you, who's more sophisticated weapons reflect that much less people heard compared to the old fashioned, old fashion, ammunition, the russian, a fighting we was. so really, the delivery of the weapon was sophisticated weapons 1st makes the life of many, many people know we speak about the south and hundreds of thousands people say for the though the russians go, the more they approached, the less they can attack into the ukrainian tones which is also saving lights, so it's not just this competition, you know, it's because even if it's lusting for a month with any type of weapon, really practically save another town so and so the glue to another group of people . so natalia in a word, what is the single thing that ukraine most needs? now, the munich security conference is getting underway. there will surely be

a lot of behind the scenes discussion there. what would be the single most important factor here in this i can just refer to the ukranian leadership because they know better what i know. it's worth these, this tanks for the future under offense, which is below leave to be possible and as well steal air defense and janet this is it remains a critical thank you laura. the battle to tank coalition that german chancellor, olaf schultz worked so hard to hammer out, actually now appears not to be ready to deliver the promised number of battle tanks any time soon. ironically, berlin is actually out in front in this case, which is unusual. our report concluded that nato is joining forces, but how well is it doing so, and where do you think nato goes next?

what it needs to deliver, would it promised? and then we can tell how well things proceeded. it needs to get to quick solutions . now that's obvious and where it's going next, i don't know. i think about aircraft the nato secretary general didn't exclude it, and the fighter pilots being trained in the u. k. i think that gives you some kind of an indication letting me or nate us commander and he is a secretary general as we heard in the report is doing his best to sound optimistic . but he also said recently, he doesn't see putin ending this war any time soon. mean either because ross is all in this world. and there's nothing to lose for putting those nor a bag for him for the russian power elite. so the need to succeed somehow in the grant is signaling the reason that they're re, due to negotiate on many channels. but in the october, in the current situation, there's no way back for us also,

which will not go to compromise on something on their ground in the future. i'm afraid, before we close, let me very briefly pick up on comments that we have received from our youtube viewers following our last program on ukraine. many of them were highly, highly skeptical of the prospect that negotiating with putin would either be feasible or could end the war. how do you see it very briefly, natalia? are they right? or we have no, any sign of russia ready to nick sheet or even it's neither from the rhetoric nor from the actions. laura, i agree. although there's a discussion in germany and many intellectual, it's asking for negotiations. i don't see it being the right time now. but again, i'm afraid. no. what's your sense of how long the protein can hold out with this war? i'm afraid critical. i'm afraid. thank you very much to all of you for being with

us for this program and thanks to all of our viewers do. if you're watching us on youtube, do send us your comments, please. we'd like very much to hear from you. a with

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