on d, w sometimes a cd is all you need to allow big ideas to grow. we're bringing environmental conservation to life with learning pass like global ideas. we will show you how climate change ended or mental conservation is taking shape around the world and how we can all make a difference. knowledge grows through sharing and download it now for, for a year after russia invaded to ukraine, it has seen serious setbacks. ukraine is holding on, but the price is high. many subsist in a landscape of craters and ruins. thousands of ukrainian civilians have been murdered. women raked children deported. over 8000000 refugees have spread across

europe. more than half of them seeking shelter in e u. countries. well, joe biden became the 1st u. s. president in modern history to visit a war zone unprotected by us troops. russia's leader once again lashed out against the west and sought to prepare his people for protracted conflict and ongoing sacrifice. so were asking ukraine one year on war without end were without a winner. ah. hello and welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to greet our guests. alex say you super heads, the russian program at germany is free to reach eva shift own. marcos kime is a senior fellow in the security policy division at the german think tank s w p. and my colleague senior post is originally from ukraine and works in detail for his

brussels 0 and things. let me begin by asking you what's uppermost in your mind as we mark this 1st anniversary of the russian invasion. i am very worried as a ukrainian oh, i am just worried that the suffering is going to continue. and that, ah, there will not be enough help in order to counter farther aggression coming from russia. and there are people who are saying ukraine will when it's inevitable. and i know that it sounds very good, but it's too early to say that because nobody knows how this war will end. and when it will end, i know that you told me if you actually did expect that russia would would

invade. what were your feelings when you woke up that morning and, and heard that in fact it was happening. i expected it when at the press conference with the all for it's put in, mentioned the word genocide. for me it was clear that something was wrong and combined with the, with the troops on the border. i, you know, it's like an f one plus 2. i was able to calculate it, but being a ukrainian i did not did not want to accept the reality. and i was hoping that i was wrong. so on the day that it happened, and i had to, you know, do a seminar. i was preparing for it was looking forward to it, but after several minutes of the seminar i just, i just it was on line. so i, i could crawl on the couch and i, i found myself on the couch crying for hours shaking. ah, and thinking about the black hole that has torn itself all pen, it's

a black hole to the worse human atrocities that we can imagine. it's a, it's a gateway to the worst things a human being can commit in this world. and i felt all that at that moment without really knowing what was going to happen, alex is letting me put in, has claimed from the outset that he launched this invasion in, in order to unite ukrainians and russians who are a single people, hasn't this war done far more to divide than to unite? well, at least it's safe to say that the russian aggression probably has sped up the creation of for ukrainian modern political nation. i think there are some polls recently. they're showing that people who identify themselves as ukrainian politically have been increasing steadily over the last years, but after their aggression, their way up the 90 percent lines. and so let him, it wouldn't actually, even if there was any question,

i don't think there was any question about the existence of ukrainian nation, which is completely separate from the russian one. but even if there was a chance to boys this question, let him up. within his end of this discussion, he has put a big, fat dog and said, well, the aggression gives those who have lead, lives of intertwined and mixed back grounds. language wise, identity wise economically gave them a very clear emotional stimulus to understand themself as ukrainians and the not as it on the russia. if i listen to some of the sound bites that we heard from people leaving the big celebratory concert that was held as this week in moscow, russians. and they seem to believe at the continue to believe the propaganda about being one. when people, the one thing we need to understand about the russian state propaganda is that it operates in a very smart mode of conduct. and this is the big difference to the dictatorship of

the 20th century. we're used to having an authoritarian regime. it defines a new truth, which is very often not connected to reality, and then it's hammered down the throats of the people who consume the propaganda. in russia, it's a little bit different. you have everything on the board. if you're a communist, then this war is about beating back the high pro capitalist it american imperialism . if you're a russian chauvinist then this is your sound bite of saying, look, finally that people's off kiva. ruth's i reunited on the leash of moscow. if you're a person who tends to think geopolitical rooms, it's you don't really care about your crane. it's about a rebirth of russia is a superpower. if you're an esoteric person, you will have other arguments again. so what we see in the tv is just one offer to keep a certain percentage of the russian population satisfied all of the things contradict each other. that's not a problem. this is made on purpose. marcus, and let's switch to the west. how would you say that the war has changed if at all,

europe, the u. s. germany, i, what i found most interesting and to be honest, most surprising, was last year, the clear commitment of the united states for european security. they have returned as a last provider of european security. i mean return is not the proper word. they have not been told in the way. but i mean, we have to keep in mind what happened. the key signals of the 1st year of foreign policy of the by mistake, the 1st sign or the 1st paradigm to put it this way was a priorities the in the pacific. it's about atlanta, china and the 2nd paradigm to put it. this was u. s. foreign policy for the middle class or the u. s. a whole for us foreign policy. it's more conditional. it's not in the give, it's not a given anymore. the classical us international in this role. and given this background, i think it could not really be expected that the united states would play

a role would follow this commitment regarding european security. and i mean, it's quite substantial to thought 20000 and sort of having, we've deployed more to europe as far as i remember. $80000000000.00 of health for the ukraine. a in finance, 8 unit 8 military. this is quite something. let me just ask you to look at the other side. now, europe, germany has a also been changed in a way, in a complimentary way. i think, i mean in particular, germany has since 906 is always been torn with the security policy between the european orientation and the transit and the orientation. i think this has been decided for the foreseeable future. the united states has presented itself as the last provider of security for european in europe. and the european union has never minute, despite all efforts to develop into a credible,

effective storage of the ride in europe. and therefore, what i see is a trans atlantic gift of german trends. a cigarette in defense policy with on the road would have expected mill littler kennels room for the last, let's say 2030 years. and we're going to later on, dig a bit deeper into whether that can last. let us 1st, however, look at the high price that ukraine has paid over the past year. villages and cities have been reduced to ash and rubble. thousands of civilians have been wounded or killed, millions displaced and yet many go on trying to preserve a semblance of normality. a kindergarten in cromwell tours, and apartment building and cartier, a clinic in harrison all targets of russian attacks milledgeville, who from you. i know there's

a chance i might die last night, a shelf flew into my garden. all the windows were blown out on the road. a bullet wound to my house this morning. it could have hit me in the head issue, reward i live in the ruins with no water, no light. oh, we need peasy. it's essential in ah raid sirens and keys more. it's part of everyday life. even far away from the front lines. people shelter in bunkers or subway stations, places that not only provide refuge but also serve as classrooms. this is also the new normal person for it's not that comfortable for the children, but there have been so many alarms in september. so they've gotten used to this kind of school with glory, took heroes things the crowd war is also pervasive in this club. and keith would be a year. this is the link between war and peaceful life. it allows us to switch off

for a moment and remember what life was like a for more and what it would be like after our victory. what is the war doing to ukrainian society and let me pass that question straight over to cynthia. what are you hearing from friends and family in ukraine? what is the war doing to ukrainian society? ah, many people are extremely tired. they are exhausted. they are reluctant to, ah, hide themselves from no attacks even because the sirens sound so often that sometimes they just want to go on with, you know, whatever daily business they have. because they say i have a list of things to do today, or they cannot really continue their work because there was no electricity. there is no light. so they can not give classes on line. they cannot make phone calls

over, you know, messengers and so on. so some of them is try to escape in, you know, whoever can work and escape into their work and just continue as if it were a normal life, you know, going to sports, doing mana cures, you know. but of course, you can see that all the people want, it's a common desire for any anniversary for any birthday, any new year. the only thing people wish is for to have peace, but they don't want peace at any price. they say we want this to be over with a victory. that would be ours. alexi, let me return to putins claim that the war is about uniting to people how much compassion do russians actually feel for their ukrainian breads are and how much do they know about the daily lives of those in ukraine? i think they know quite little,

it's safe to say that the war has also marked em. separation of the informational spaces and realms. it's very hard for even if you're interested, if you are politicized russian citizen, maybe even critical of the government of the regime. it's very hard for you to come by um and to get access to the same informational stream as we consume here. a good example is if you say the word boucher, everyone knows in germany in ukraine, obviously. but also in europe, everyone knows what it is and where them war crimes say exactly. it is whole world night. exactly. so it's clear, it's connected to the atrocities, but the russian troops, the pictures, other and so on. if you say the word butcher in russia, it's not that people, some people would deny anything happen, but many people just say and doesn't really ring a bell. there was something, but i'm not sure. and this shows you that the informational space and the agenda is controlled by the russian government in a completely different weight. and when it comes to compassion, there are even people in russia who would say that they have

a lot of compassion with ukraine. but, and i'm coming back to this bu, fee of propaganda narratives. one of them is that this is air defense war. it's a defensive operation. sure, it's preemptive. but it claims that if russia wouldn't have strike 1st, it would have been target of the attack. obviously this is bogus, but for people it's easy to combine their general compassionate and maybe even pacifist outlook within necessities of the big bulletin config. it's bad people are suffering. but this is what war means and it had to be done. so it's hot, it's very important to see who i actual looking at their societies very fragmented, and there is no access to free information. and in general, there is also this idea that it's about politics and between people will come by. and so fortunately, we don't see a genuine societal into ukrainian sentiment among normal population. yet it might come because the government might want to start to fuel it. but at the moment,

i wouldn't say this is the case senior data, me putting recently, but constantly refers to russia within its historic borders. that being one of his rationale for the invasion is, is this war ultimately, perhaps more about russian imperialism than about russian. brotherly nurse. definitely. ah, because we don't see any foundation to his claims. what, what is he talking about when he refers to the russian empire? or what is he talking about when he says that ukraine is ruled by nazis? you know, one of the favorite narratives of russian propaganda. ah, of course, it has no, no real claims because ukraine has its borders. ukraine is a sovereign independent state that has had his borders since 991. and ukraine also gave up their power to protect themselves to gain the sovereignty when they are

wait, ninja just gave up their nuclear weapons. so you cream, sacrificed a lot for the independence. ukraine, of course, had it's, you know, phase is as a young state, but ukraine has always since then been a sovereign independent state with its own path, with its own ambitions and so on. so of course, these claims mean nothing. marcus, it's not only you go to russia that has been accused of reverting to imperialist stereotypes. in fact, germany's hesitation and ambivalence that it has shown at various times over the past year in terms of supporting ukraine has been very scarcely criticized by some as a whole. over of germany, imperialist or neo colonial attitudes, i think that has nothing to do with imperialism. i think it has to do more with realism and get used to the change, the political environment we confronted with. this has been the,

has been at the core of the so called site and then the turning point of german foreign security policy during the last year. and i think we have seen the signs over at say, 10 years emerging in the emerging new world, all are characterized by multiple, multiple charity and view policy politics. and some european parts have realized this way before us. i think of paul and the baltic states ukraine and other countries as well. and so so many is simply adjusting to this new reality. and one is tristan is that the speed with certain political paradigms of german 4 the court would hold true for 30 years have gone out of the window for example, that you can only create your frontier security together with ross. i know it would claim this any more about creating or sustaining european security with the old

russ all against russia. and this is one only one example for this. that's called a paradigm shift of foreign and security policy of germany. is india with all the suffering and the existential danger that ukrainian space do? they still have the energy and the will to tackle challenges like corruption, like an essentially re stewing and a restoring and renewing political institutions, which clearly would be prerequisites for them ever to be admitted to the you. exactly, and i would say absolutely because i on thing is use all that any day you could die . and this is the reality that you koreans are living in. nobody is safe. you can die any time any day, anywhere if you are within the territory. but at the same time, they have a perspective and this is very important because in hard black, dark times like this, you need to think about the future and that european union gave them this new

perspective something to look forward to. and of course the prerequisites are very tough and they have to be completed in order even, you know, for the, for ukraine to be revised as a candidate. so they're very determined and i think there is a lot of not only the politicians who have to deliver because they will be asked by by the european counterparts or that you counterparts. but this societal pressure is growing because the society really wants to see the results and they want to be part of the you and they want to have negotiations even within this year. so meanwhile, alex say societal pressure is not growing a in regard to vladimir putin, at least societal opposition. not how strong is his hold on people one year on i think is quite substantial. i also think that the unpleasant truth is that for an or talk receive like russia is, it's quite

a pleasant mode of conduct to be in the war in a limited war because you know, your position, your dissidence are either in jail or frightened or out of the country, you have this whole mobilization narrative saying look, this is an existential thing. let's pull together all forces under the same time. the elite are so far with unifying, behave, let him put him because there is no viable alternative for them. and there is no clear picture of the future and interesting if you listen to his spitters, which is a complicated has to do, but i'm going to pay for it. so i do that. he tries to paint an image of the future where there is no to this war. this is where we'd really guess orwellian. this hasn't been the case last year. but if you listen to him, he doesn't mention any war goals. he just say, she just has the economy will be stable, that will help the teachers will have the refugees. there will be additional leave for the soldiers coming back. all the small instruments saying, don't worry about the big picture. life will be good without spelling out how this

war ends, and this means his hold empowers actually quite good. let's dive deeper on that very point. both putting and joe biden took the approaching anniversary of the russian invasion to send some key messages and prepare their listeners for protracted conflict. at deviousness, the responsibility for the ukraine conflict affords escalations and for the rising number of victims lie solely with the western latency. and with a current regime in chief to which the ukrainian people are basically strangers. did you choosing one year on a one year end of his war? poor no longer doubts the strength of our coalition. but he still doubts our conviction. he doubts our staying power, but there should be no doubt. our support for grey will not waver. data will not be divided and we will not tire. let me go straight to a marcus and ask you about the at the end of that statement from biden, he says,

our support will now waiver, but reportedly the biden administration has told kias that it well could waiver, especially if republicans won the next election. what do you think will that happen? not the election will will the support waiver? i think it's, it's fair to say that the war has entered in new faith or is about 20 new faith with louder voices or voices in the earth becoming more vocal about. and not supporting the ukraine indefinite the we see in chinese efforts maybe not to end the war, but to provide some kind of mediation. and i wouldn't bet on the political landscape in europe. i mean, we have elections and next couple of years or months and years and 0 the european countries. and so far the immediate effect of the war and european economies have been quite mitigated. therefore, i could imagine

a scenario 2 years from now and with the support for ukraine will be winning and bill, clint, totally the picture alex, a put in, in his speech, appeared to be offering material incentives to russians who keep the conscripts coming. what effect do you think that will have, is he essentially buying our families to sacrifice their sense? he does, but you also have to see the russian economy has performed historically not bad in the last 20 years under put him. but it has an end of poverty in russia, and in some respect, you will also claim that terrace federal regence, or level the material level of life of people has gone down the war. and this is another unpleasant truth, a war as a social elevator. it gives people opportunities to earn money and to advance, at least in their minds, ah, their material well being for their families. so it's not necessarily just buying

or families who are grieving. it's actual offering. some people are a way out of their material situation. and this is unpleasant, but this is the case the m, it's often said that who wins a war depends very much on hearts and minds. so you're telling us that russian hearts and minds are still absolutely with put in in this war. that's what i'm saying. but most of the russians, most of the russians are not for this war and for put him. but most of the russians are not against the war. and this is the bigger political problem. it's a d, politicize, or morphic society, and that we need to take this into consideration senior joe biden and delivered at the speech that we heard that clip from in poland after having made a very unusual, astonishing trip to key of in fact, the 1st time in memory that an american president has travelled to an active ward zone where there are no us soldiers to support him. how much did that mean to people in ukraine?

how much do they believe that western support will remain with them? well, they have no choice. of course it was, i think it was very encouraging to see him because he, he also risked his life because he was there. of course there are shelters everywhere where a kid he could have been, you know, her work. he could have been hiding, but he didn't want that obviously. ah, anyway, they saw that he took this major risk, and it was a huge support for them in this time where they're seeing that russia is mobilizing more troops. russia is throwing more weapons, more money into the game, but you grand simply have no choice. they have to keep negotiating, keep cooperating with the west in order to get what they need. in order to get enough to stop this, our title asked a war without end war without a winner. how well prepared our ukrainians for this situation to continue?

if the west stands with them, and if china doesn't start sending weapons to russia, as the speculations are, then there is a good chance that ukraine would close this black hole that i was talking about. i'm afraid we'll have to leave it there. thank you so much to all of you for being with us. and thanks to all of you who are watching us, do check out our youtube channel and tell us what you think about this program with

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