john dunder, asked activists, journalists and politicians living in exile and what drives them. it's too much on my shoulders, but i have to uphold this weight because i'm responsible for the future. all countries for the people far behind the boss, the courageous effort against corruption and political crimes. in our series, guardians of truth. watch no on youtube, d. w documentary my guess this week on conflicts on was one of the most prominent members of russia's well connected power, elite, former kremlin advisor and economist, sergei. gloria was head of a tough economic university and was being re elected to the supervisory board of spare. buck rushes largest lender when he suddenly fled to france 10 years ago

saying he fear for his safety. i'm not a, i'm another brief person. so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail is longest. william is in the credit now as a professor of economics and provost at sea on po his work illuminates how authoritarian regimes like prudence survive. how does he assess putin's grip on power and how much longer can put in fund his war amid military setbacks and sanctions? ah sir gregory, of welcome to conflict zone. thank you. sorry for inviting me. the fighting continues as the invasion of ukraine is now in its 2nd year. how long can put and hold on and continue to fund this war. so this question or which depends on many factors and minyaun this factors we dont know. so booty is already facing major financial constraints. one, sir,

the oil sanctions were introduced in december, they were late, but it's better to have it late than never. he isa now finding it difficult to finance his war, but he still has a lot of resources, including the resources he accumulated during 2022. when the west has actually frozen the, it is yours of the russian central. been but continued till by russian, oil and gas thus given put him more money. and yet we see that in the recent months, who jim has difficulty to find her farms too, or bye bye technology to produce weapons to produce artillery shells. so we see that, for example, the frontline doesn't really move in the last half a year, and that's also an impact of economic sanctions. economic sanctions limit good hints ability to kill you, granite. so then tell us, because at put in a said to be using the countries reserves to cover at the gap in the budget. and

you mentioned it there that a big chunk of that. some $300000000000.00 are already frozen by sanctions. how long do you think the money runs out the money that he does have access to? so once again, it's not clear because a lot of the data now classified april. tim, we don't know, for example, how healthy is the banking system. so you've got, there is a lot of cash in the banking system. he can borrow from russian man and continue to finance the war. it's also not clear at which cost he buying the military technology through 3rd countries like turkey, india, china, covered in so many of the data we don't know, but we, he, that every additional be, then he gets his spans on buying the weapons. i think we can soldiers in so in this particular case, i would say the water will continue as longest as empower but intensity of this war

. the number of ukrainian soldiers kill the number of ukrainian civilians killed the number of ukrainian shooters destroyed. these depends on how much money would give him, but we see that in the recent months, the intensity of streaming in the front line has been much lower. and we see the soldiers in general themselves and putting himself started talking about the futility, hunger. they have a com, good, particularly shells. they don't have enough shells to kill ukrainian and that's already good. we also see the intensity of using rockets to undermine ukrainians. ability to provide electricity has diminished, in that sense, the functions which were introduced in december for oil in, in february for oil products, has been quite effect. when we look at the overall picture of the economy though, you know the sanctions, they were expected to lead to

a macro economic instability. and you have spoken before about this reported decline in gdp that was smaller than expected. and i'm just wondering if you're looking at the overall situation, if you've been personally impressed with how well the russian central bank has handled the fall out of sanctions. well indeed, when people saw the introduction of unprecedented sanctions in the end of february, actually on the 3rd day of the war against the central bank, ah, many experts thought that the russia will follow the way of the new thrill, and we'll have a major marker economic disaster, now this functions were unaffected them, so they created the on, on the realistic expectations, but person microeconomic team, as you mentioned, is much more competent than central bankers and finance ministries in under the sanction countries. so russia, central bank manage the installation, manage the capital capital flow, and in fact,

they employed the macroeconomic clubs that said, i should see the russian calling to me using the fashion in spite of pretty high oil price, which is usually very good for us from the company, in spite of high oil price that we observed last year ration economy, windham to recession. and if you look at the quality of life, if you look at the live in standards, if you look at consumer expenditures at these numbers that are minus 10 percent, this is not real. in some people will say, well, the rational don't notice that. well, any fashion to explain how unhappy they are to show on there because it's also a very depressive presume now. and i would like to get a little bit more into a little bit later about about what russians think about what's happening. but when we do look at the russian central bank and you've just acknowledge it, that they are key and helping the economy,

whether the sanctions are the people who run it, therefore complicit in the invasion of ukraine in the heroic war. crimes that we have seen committed their well, i'm not, i'm not a judge and i my film would. if i were there, i would keep my job right away because in the every additional dollar, every additional $1000000000.00 that you see for us magic, you save it to give it to put him to kill more ukrainians. and this is of course immoral. but of course, these people managed to convince themselves that they save russian population from poverty, from hyperinflation. and so you can always look into the mirror and explain to yourself why you are still there. but of course, these people who continue providing the resources for patients war machine, they actually undermine the long term future oppression. and in the community,

they see russian regime this year. but they of course, destroy the russian economic, political, social, democratic future in the long grants. and in that sense, it's economically that's also bad policies just in the long run the tibet bullet and human there right now in 2022 in 2023. the voice macroeconomic call ups. but the help who can to continue destroying national future? do you think that they can leave that's a different question. i think some of them can leave a, but we've seen that many russian business people, for example, committed suicide on their very suspicious circumstances. some fell out the window so we don't know who considered him is very brutal. who jim has killed the people who betrayed him? put him, has killed people who have always been a podium, them the decision himself. so we should forget the murder of, but he, himself,

in 2015, we shouldn't get the attempted assassination of 152020 in right. now we are in the middle of the judiciary process. traditionally, in quote, so quote unquote, again for the midterm, was that who put in the resume or try to kill the way? so you put into the shame, tries to kill its enemies. of course it is going to be variable, don't the words people whom put him consider straighter. so i would not judge this people, but if i were to them i would, i would try to run the way soon as possible. and this is something i actually get into something. here are how the russians are framing the situation. foreign minister laughed off saying the west plan to isolate russia has been a fiasco. he said that russia is strengthening good neighborly relations with the international majority. and i'd like to ask you if there is some truth there, because you have china's leader, just standing by the side of putin on

a state visit recently. many countries in the global south, including in africa, where russia is a major arms export or have refused to condemn the invasion of ukraine. this is going to act. if you look at the ball with the united nations, you'll see that a lot of countries abstain the. but those who support the very, very few. and we talk about 83 and you can go literally 5 countries which expressed its support for russia. now, on the china, this is extremely important in a really happy that china doesn't provide with us to rush if china decided to put that we mail out in money to russia. that we know that's right. but if china wanted to follow this idea of friendship without limits, china would have provided a weapons without limits and cash without limits and functions would not work. now we see that it's for us to buy munitions and weapons from iran and north korea,

which is a much lower quality than chinese weapons engineers, technology. so we see that there are some limits to russian chinese friendship in. moreover, after she'd been left, you know, you could see the interview or change the bus of the, to the you who said that friendship without limit is the rhetoric in china is not support him. a violation of the total sovereignty integrity. a few great. so there are new on to here. yes, this is right. china is not a with a line on this war in this morning. india is continue to buy russian oil. but still, we shouldn't say like, when you said a level said that the rest of the world, majority of the world support this is not so then the me then su, then from the economic point of view, because russia has been pivoting, as we've been highlighting, put and says that he is looking for markets belonging to friendly countries, where he can re orient energy supplies. how far do you think that those partnerships can go to prop putin and the russian economy?

the key question is, if other countries observe the oil price, can you mention all right, captain poles my, the west, this is the most important issue. now. they said we want to keep russian oil in the market. so we are happy in india by the rational and why because of rational tweak, the global market, you will have a crisis in the market, price will go up. so the goal of the west, the goal price cap, is that india buying production. but by that, at the low price, so put him doesn't have enough money to continue finance in this war. coming back to our 1st question, if the price camp is at 60, doesn't have enough money to balance the budget. and to continue the war with the site intensity, if will i skip is lowered and i hope it will happen this year from 625-545-5250. russia will have less and less money is the longest, the rest of the world. india in particular,

pays less for russian oil. and that's the critical question. and so far we keep and we see that india bike more rational, but the ration budget isn't major deficit. so it looks like the approach does work, how bad is the economy have to get for the position to look shaky. so it solid is shaking in the sense that it doesn't have enough weapons to, to occupied, but for half a year for a company. and now eventually this war is not about the one with this war is about the battleground. you have pointed out a dip. for example, in consumer spending last year. how much do you think households are feeling that pinch and you think that that can translate into real grass roots resistance for the kremlin? we don't know because we are spoken about when the collective collective good assumption then we can continue. this will result in the mass protest and the

police will join the process. this is something which is very hard to predict. put him is very worried about this. he pays more and more to the right police. he doesn't write police to you. right? he looks for soldiers and mom nations, he doesn't use what's called national guard for, for the war because he knew the national guard to be a potential protest. now if you think about this, if you're in germany or u. k, and you have minus 10 percent change in your quality of life. you will have enormous progress industries. russia is a little different because if you protest international get beaten up to return in send to jail for 10 years. and in case of looking cameras, other they mentioned the demand of the speed ease actually 25 years in j. 4 to speaking openly against the war. so it's a very depressive state is not russia of 20. 20 is not rational. 2013 is a very different country. we're not talking about about level of repression,

we've not seen seen. so i would like to ask you a little bit more about the decision that you made to leave the country back in 2013. when you fled, you were widely quoted as saying the following, that you had no issues with putin or media despite being the target of investigators. do you regret saying not? i think it was not a well formulated. what to what a man actually i didn't need to put in there. i'm invited to give me to give me a personal treatment to protect me from russian lloyd other than for the lawyer. another system i had issues with putting in the video for creating a system where the person speaking up on his mind would have to leave would be, would be to happen in that is that is an issue. i would have thought i would have with the russian government the cool that you mention is i don't have issues with putting in midvale,

if for not interfering personally and protect me from there on about this that's. that's what the quote was about. it was taken out of content put in with consolidating power. what do you think might have happened to you if you'd stayed? well, i seen the various signals found at some point in some point, actually people who are common. well, sometimes we can send me a signal and nothing can threaten me. sometimes the signal would be i can be arrested. and sometimes people would say that he's meal source. if i'm typing, this is my support for anything. and you know what happens to people who support the alex he himself so i, i know that i'm another brave person so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh like i'll explain himself who actually came back likely. and would you believe what you're like ladyman who came back? these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail as longest,

isn't the camera, but i hope that it will not take long. dimitri pascal put in spokes person confirmed that russia had tightened the restrictions on foreign travel for some who work insensitive areas such as as what you were doing when you were living in russia. there are reports of demanding the surrender of travel documents from some prominent figures and former officials. how much to sent. do you think that there is right now and how many of russians officials want to leave you think? i think you have very widespread defense then at the end, if you have the people in the rational in their circles, because this war has destroyed everything they've done in their lives. imagine you're building a business, you're building a company for 30 years now it's gone. imagine you have a car year within futons, bureaucratic, and the top of this year is to be actually to get a warrant or for international criminal court. so you are a want that person. so all these people are extremely happy. and just recently,

a couple of weeks ago, we've had this record in overcome ation between 2 people who publicly support put him. but in this conversation between them, one musical producer and one energy energy business, or some, they are using words i would never war would never use for criticized input in everybody's and of course everybody's on package. but you're right. i started to speak about this a long time ago more than 10 years ago in already 10 years ago. the last few months when they cross the border, i would have a special procedure to international quitters. you've written extensively about 2 in style of leadership more than 20 years ago and came to berlin and gave a very famous speech in german before the bonus tag, where he said the cold war is over. do you think that that was just a charade back then? do you think that he always had a master plan bent on empire or has his aims changed over time?

well, i think it's very hard to, it's very hard to guess. now. we know that he's always been corrupt. he also ran down to raj. he's also over that i'm, i'm to rush my samples. so the moment he and i in the kremlin, he started building, he's gillan g pallet, the black palace. so we know that he started all the schemes right away. so he is not an imperial imperial. a built in empire built or he's more of a pallet builder and this a different different thing. but over time you saw that in order to guard to palaces and he is about 20 balances. he needs to create the narrative, which has become the narrative of empower building, go pick a truck, and so we have to buy. and if you repeat this narrative for 10 years, you eventually start to believe it yourself. and i think now he believes or believe the himself, but he started with the idea that leave and let's leave. so i build my

palaces, but to come let me grow if it's so strong that everybody will happy with mike adoption in my simulation of power. but eventually when they come in growth disappeared and this was obvious that it would, he thought i knew the new america. and so can explain me. he said rational, you know, you will have no income growth, but you're going to be part of the empire. and then of course, according to play the major role, he was very isolated you in 2 years, of course with he talked to just a few people who reinforce his brian p. l. narrative with them that i think. and i think by now, he believes that believes it himself. you've also written about when poon cut came to power in 2000, you said that he worked to preserve democratic appearances. and that when he resumed to the presidency in 2012, his play book, it changed it more closely resembled rule by intimidation rule by fear. was that

inevitable? what did a change? so what has changed? he is in the 1st 10 years he presided over unprecedented economic growth. so russian economy pretty much doubled in the 1st year, 10 years of weekends and power in so he created the social contract where he was popular because he delivered on income growth, wage growth, growth of consumption in, everybody was happy. and then since he was corrupt and he didn't want to have checks and balances, he didn't want to have the mckorick accountability. eventually economic growth is a period. and if you just look at the numbers for them and growth, we have a major, a decline of gdp in 2009 in the world. economic proud crisis. and then the economy has recovered to pre crisis level, and then it stopped growing because economy was driven by the states crony capitalism put in france control in the world, the whole economy. and so he knew that the new narrative and that was the principal change. so in that sense, it was inevitable, but it's also a choice by moultrie,

for not to fight corruption, not to become transparent as well. governed in the course that eventually resulted in this choice, which he may, and this crimea become anti western. and step by step, increase the level of depression. you said that that built the regime in a way that without him the system will not function and that you think eventually it will collapse. how long compute last and what happens thereafter if he falls? this is actually through the system is built on personality of looking at him. he wants to send a message to his until to his inner circle that they will not be able to function without him. they will hewley each other. they will destroy each other. if we can do that, yes, which means and put him as a mortal person and he's not younger than when he is gone, the system will have to change. how will it change? initially they will try to coordinate among themselves, but then eventually they will see the mom of them has put him scared,

even though none of them have genius support from the public. don't forgive that we can have certain base of support because he has presided over economic prosperity of 1st 10 years in power. and so in order to get this popular support, either they will install something like the north korean regime of altamont regression. and they don't that will work because russia is not, not goodies, and much more sophisticated and industrial light than the case of society. or they will need to become a prosperity and for that they will negotiate with, in, with ukraine to remove the function. so we will see something like a new that is throwing. if we can go now, we'll put in di himself or they will kill him all they will remove him from power. that's a very difficult question, which is very hard to predict. but if you lose the war in ukraine, for example, if put him, if we can move this crimea, this will drastically reduce his chances to stain power because he bet everything

he had from this war. so it's hard to predict, right? non democracy seems changed in the predictable way. so still, this is a system build on put in once he's gone the system, the change. what about reparations? and justice the i c. c says ukraine is a crime scene that encompasses a complex and broad range of alleged international crimes. do you think that we will see, put and brought to justice? i think put in the everything he can to avoid that. and yet we've seen, for example, that on the loss of which was brought to the hague. so things happen yet. i think all russian civil society and the position are united in understanding that the real piece with ukraine ease return to the borders of 1991. so give back all the rest of occupied in 2014 in 2022 in 2023. so give me a, give back, is ukraine. pay reparations,

and the sand work criminals to the international tribunal, either itc or other international 3 be set up for the war crimes of this war. that he's no disagreement on this. alex seen of only his written and letter announced that this is his view. this is his vision of peace with the grants, the same of done by the russian and the work committee of which i am a founding member in rush and action committee, which is also funding. and how can society process and deal with the horrors committed in ukraine? do you have any hope that change will happen anytime soon? it's not going to be easy. you talked to me from germany. germany has gone through this process after 1945. it's not been easy, it's not been easy. it was not immediate. it was not all this how to do it in the right way. but now germany's a free democratic peace will come to. some people will do him say to peaceful. but i think germany has done it. other countries have done it,

and russia is not genetically inferior. whoever says that russia always has to stay autocratic. visa was a fob in racist. i called it ah, ah, we will be able to rebuild the country and create the free democratic pro european russian. so okay, great. we have to leave it there. thank you so much for your time. thank you for joining us on conflicts out. thank you, sir. ah ah ah ah ah

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