women in architecture. why are they so invisible to the larger public? we decided to ask them. what is the poetry the secret of a house about their struggles and dreams. responsibility is huge. they have so much to lose. shattering the glass ceiling women in architecture. this has to be really, really good. starts april 20th on d. w. with my guess this week on conflicts on was one of the most prominent members of russia's well connected power, elite, former kremlin advisor and economist, sergei. gloria was head of a top economic university. and was being re elected to the supervisory board of spare buck rushes largest lender when he suddenly fled to france 10 years ago

saying he fear for his safety. i manada, i'm not a brief person, so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail, is longest for jim. he's on the credit now as a professor of economics and provost at c onto po. his work illuminates how authoritarian regimes like prudence survive. how does he assess putin's grip on power and how much longer can put in fund his war amid military setbacks and sections? ah sir gay, gray of welcome to conflicts own? thank you. sorry for inviting me. the fighting continues as the invasion of ukraine is now in its 2nd year. how long can put and hold on and continue to fund this war . so this is the question which depends on many factors in minneapolis factors we don't know. so food is already faced in major financial constraints.

want the oil functions were introduced in december, they were late, but it's better to have it late than never. he is now finding difficult to finance his war, but he still has a lot of resources including the resources he accumulated during 2022 when the work has actually frozen the course of the central been but continue to buy russian oil and gas that's given. put in more money and yet we see that in the recent months, who tim has difficulty to find farms to buy, buy technology, to produce weapons, to produce jewelry shells. so we see that, for example, that frontline doesn't really move in the last half a year. and that's also an impact of economic sanctions, economic social limit, put into ability to kill ukraine. so then tell us, because put in is said to be using the countries reserves to cover the gap in the

budget. and you mentioned it there that a big chunk of that, some $300000000000.00 are already frozen by sanctions. how long do you think the money runs out the money that he does have access to? so once again, it's not clear because a lot of the data now classified, greg colton, we don't know, for example, how healthy is the banking system. so you've got, there is a lot of cash in the bank and system he can borrow from russian man and continue to finance the war. it's also not clear at which cost he buying to the military technology through 3rd countries like turkey, india, china, covered in. so many of the data we don't know, but we see that every additional 1000000000. he gets his pounds on buying weapons. i think we can soldiers in so in this particular case, i would say the war will continue as longest put in his power. but intensity of

this war, the number of ukrainian soldiers kill the number of ukrainian civilians killed the number of ukrainian shooters destroyed. these depends on how much money would give him, but we see that in the recent month, the intensity of streaming in the front line has been much lower. and we see that the soldiers in general themselves and putting himself started talking about the futility, hunger, they have a hunger for accumulating shells. they don't have enough shells to kill ukrainian and that's already good. we also see the intensity of using rockets to undermine ukrainians. ability to provide electricity has diminished. in that sense, the functions which were introduced in december for oil in, in february for oil products has been quite effect. when we look at the overall picture of the economy though, you know the sanctions, they were expected to lead to

a macro economic instability. and you have spoken before about this reported decline and gdp that was smaller than expected. and i'm just wondering if you're looking at the overall situation, if you've been personally impressed with how well the russian central bank has handled the fall out of sanctions well induced when people saw the introduction of unprecedented sanctions in the end of february, actually the 3rd day of the war against the central bank. ah, many experts thought that the russia will follow the way of the new thrill and we'll have a major marker economic disaster. now this functions were unaffected them. so they created the on on the realistic expectations, but freshman macroeconomic team, as you mentioned, is much more competent than central bankers and finance ministries in under sanctioned countries. so russia, central bank managed installation, manage the capital capital flow, and in fact,

they employed the market and let me collapse that said, i should see the russian economy using the fashion in spite of pretty high oil price, which was usually very good for us from the company, in spite of high oil price that we observed last year, russian economy, windham, to recession. and if you look at the quality of life, if you look at the live in standards, if you look at consumer expenditures at these numbers that are minus 10 percent, this is not real. in some people will say, well, the russians don't notice that. well, any fashion to explain how unhappy they are to show how unhappy there because it's also a very depressive, presume now. and i would like to get a little bit more into a little bit later about about what russians think about what's happening. but when we do look at the russian central bank and you've just acknowledge it, that they are key and helping the economy,

whether the sanctions are the people who run it, therefore complicit in the invasion of ukraine and the heroic war. crimes that we have seen committed their well, i'm not, i'm not a jan. i myself would. if i were there, i would keep my job right away because in that every additional dollar, every additional $1000000000.00 that you see for us magic, you save it to give it to him to kill more ukrainians. and this is of course immoral. but of course, these people managed to convince themselves that they save russian population from poverty from piper inflation. and so you can always look into the mirror and explain to yourself why you are still there. but of course, these people who continue providing the resources for pollutants war machine, the actual undermine the long term future of freshman and in the community during

the si, russian regime this year. but they of course, destroy the russian economic, political, social, democratic future in the long run. and in that sense, it's economically that's also bad policies just in the long run the tibet bullet and human there right now in 2022 in 2023. the voice macroeconomic call ups, but the help who can to continue destroying national future? do you think that they can leave that's a different question. i think some of them can leave a, but we've seen that many russian business people, for example, committed suicide on their very suspicious circumstances. some fell out the window so we don't know who considered him as a very brutal who has killed the people who betrayed him. put him has killed people who have always been the podium, them the decision himself. so we shouldn't forget the murder of buddy himself in

2015. we shouldn't get the attempted assassination of quality inn of only 2020. in right. now we are in the middle of the judiciary process, traditionally in quote, so quote unquote, against him come or that who we can reach him or try to kill twice. so you put into the shame, tries to kill its enemies. of course, it is going to be variable towards people whom we can consider as a traitor, so i would not judge this people. but if i were them i would, i would try to run the weights and it's possible. and this is something i actually get into something here are how the russians are framing the situation for minister laughter off saying the west plan to isolate russia has been a fiasco. he said that russia is strengthening good neighborly relations with the international majority. and i'd like to ask you if there is some truth there, because you have china's leader, just standing by the side of putin on

a state visit recently. many countries in the global south, including in africa where russia is a major arms export or have refused to condemn the invasion of ukraine. this is going to act. if you look at the bullet that united nations, you'll see that a lot of countries abstained. but those who support the have very, very few and we talk about 83 and you can go literally 5 countries, which expressed its support for russia. now on the china, this is extremely important in a really happy the china doesn't provide with the rush. if china decided to, we mail out in money to russia that we know that's right. but if china wanted to follow this idea of friendship without limits, china would have provided a weapons without limits and cash without limits and functions will not work. now we see that it's for us to buy munitions and weapons from iran and north korea,

which is a much lower quality than chinese weapons engineers, technology. so we see that there are some limits to russian chinese friendship in. moreover, after she'd been left, you know, you could see the interview changes on bus of the, to the you who said that friendship without limit rhetoric in china is not support him. a violation of the total sovereignty integrity of your grade. so there are nuances here. yes, this is right, china is not a with a line on this or in this morning. india is continues to buy russian oil. but still, we shouldn't say like, when you said a level said that the rest of the world, majority of the world support this is not. so then the me then ask you then, from the economic point of view, because russia has been pivoting, as we've been highlighting, put and says that he is looking for markets belong to friendly countries where he can re orient energy supplies. how far do you think that those partnerships can go

to prop putin and the russian economy? the key question is, if other countries observe the oil price, can you mention? all right, captain postman, west. this is the most important issue now. they said, we want to keep russian oil in the market. so we are happy in india by the rational and why? because the rational, the global market, you will have a crisis and the market price will go up. so the goal of the worst, the goal over a cap that india buys ration, but by that at the low price. so put him doesn't have enough money to continue finance. and this one coming back to our 1st question. if price camp is at $60.00, doesn't have enough money to balance the budget and to continue the war with the same pencil. if we guys camp is lowered and i hope it will happen to hear from 625555250. russian will have less and less money is the longest, the rest of the world. india in particular,

pays less for russian oil. and that's the critical question. and so far we keep and we see that india by more rational. but the ration budget is a major deficit. so it looks like the approach does work. how bad is the economy have to get for the position to look shaky. so it's solid is shaking in the sense that put him doesn't have enough weapons to, to occupied. but for half a year for coffee, you know, eventually this war is not bother calling with this war is about the battle ground . you have pointed out a dip, for example, in consumer spending last year. how much you think households are feeling that pinch and do you think that that can translate into real grass roots resistance for the kremlin? we don't know because we are spoken about when the collective collective good assumption then we can continue. this will result in the mass brought this and the

police will join the process. this is something which is very hard to predict. put him is very worried about this. he pays more and more to the right police. he doesn't write police to you, right? he looks for soldiers and mom, tv, the nation's, he doesn't use what's called national guard for, for the war because he knew the national guard to be potential protest. now if you think about this, if you're in germany or u. k, and you have minus 10 percent change in your quality of life. you will have enormous progress industries. russia is a little different because if you protest international, get beaten on the return in sent to jail for 10 years. and in case of looking kind of was other, they mentioned the demand of the speed ease actually 25 years in j. 4 to speaking openly against the war. so it's a very depressive state is not russia of 20. 20, it's not rational. 2013 is a very different country. we're not talking about about level of repression,

we've not seen seen. so i would like to ask you a little bit more about the decision that you made to leave the country back in 2013. when you fled, you were widely quoted as saying the following, that you had no issues with putin or media to have despite being the target of investigators. do you regret saying not? i think it was not a well formulated. what to what a man actually i didn't put in there, i'm invited to give me to give me a personal treatment to protect me from russian law in order for them, for the law in their system. i had issues with putting in the video for creating a system where the person speaking his mind would have to leave would be, would be to happen in that is that is an issue. i would have thought i would have with the russian government the cool that you mention is i don't have issues with putting in midvale, if for not interfering personally and protect me from there on about this that's.

that's what the quote was about. it was taken out of content, put and was consolidating power. what do you think might have happened to you if you'd stayed? well, i seen the various signals and at some point in some point, actually people who are common. well, sometimes we can send me a signal and nothing can threaten me. sometimes the signal would be i can be arrested. and sometimes people would say that he's meal source. if i'm typing, this is my support for anything. and you know what happens to people who support the allocate? he himself so i, i know that i'm another brave person, so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh like i'll explain himself. we actually came back likely. and would you believe what you're like ladyman who came back? these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail as longest,

isn't the camera, but i hope that will not take long. dimitri passcode put in spokesperson confirmed that russia had tightened the restrictions on foreign travel for some who work in sensitive areas such as as what you were doing when you were living in russia. there are reports of demanding the surrender of travel documents from some prominent figures and former officials. how much to sent. do you think that there is right now and how many of russia's officials want to leave you think? i think you have very widespread defense. the end, if you have the people in the rational in their circles, because this war has destroyed everything they've done in their life. imagine you're building a business, you're building a company for 30 years. now it's gone. imagine you have a car year within, put in bureaucratic and the top of this year is to be actually to get a warrant or for international criminal court. so you are a want that person. so all these people are getting them happy. and just recently

a couple of weeks ago, we had this city, oregon overcome ation between 2 people who publicly support put him. but in this conversation between them, one musical producer and one energy energy business, or some, they are using words i would never war would never use for criticized input. and everybody's on, of course, everybody's on package, but you're right. i started to speak about this a long time ago more than 10 years ago in already 10 years ago. the last few months when across the board, i would have a special procedure to international quit like you've written extensively about quin style of leadership more than 20 years ago and came to berlin and gave a very famous speech in german before the bonus tag where he said the cold war is over. do you think that that was just a charade back then? do you think that he always had a master plan bent on empire, or has his aims changed over time?

well i think it's very hard to, it's very hard to guess. now we know that he's always been corrupt. he's also ran down to raj. he's also always around them to rush my samples. so the moment he arrived in the kremlin, he started building, he's gillan g pallet, the black palace. so we know that he started all the schemes right away. so he is not an imperial imperial, a built in empire builder. he's more of a palate builder. and this a different different thing, but over time you saw that in order to guard balances and he is about 20 balances. he needs to create the narrative, which has become the narrative of empower buildings of the contract. and so we have to buy it. and if you repeat this narrative for 10 years, you eventually start to believe it yourself. and i think now to believe the believe that you're himself. but he started with the idea that leave and let's

leave. so i build my palaces, but the come on, the growth is so strong that everybody will happy with mike adoption in my sense, realization of power. but eventually when they come and growth disappear. and this was obvious that it would, he thought i knew the new america and so can explain me. he said rush and you know, you will have no income growth, but you're going to be part of the empire. and then of course, according to lay the major role, he was very isolated your into units of cope with. he talked to just a few people who reinforce is brian p. l narrative with them narrative. and i think by now he believes that believes it's kim. so you've also written about when poon cut came to power in 2000, you said that he worked to preserve democratic appearances. and that when he resumed to the presidency in 2012, his play book, it changed it more closely resembled rule by intimidation rule by fear. was that

inevitable? what did a change? so what has changed? he's in the 1st 10 years, he presided over unprecedented economic growth. so russian economy pretty much doubled in the 1st year, 10 years of power in. so he created the social contract where he was popular because he delivered on income growth, wage growth, growth of consumption in, everybody was happy. and then since he was corrupt and he didn't want to have checks and balances, he didn't want to have the mckorick accountability. eventually, economic growth is a period, and if you just look at the numbers for them and growth, we have a major, a decline of gdp in 2009 in the world. economic proud crisis. and then the economy has recovered to pre crisis level, and then it stopped growing because economy was driven by the states crony capitalism put in france control in the world, the whole economy. and so he knew that the numerical and that was the principal change. so in that sense, it was inevitable, but it's also

a choice by multi form not to fight corruption, not to become transparent and well governed in the course that eventually resulted in this choice, which he may. and this crimea become anti western. and step by step, increase the level of depression. you said that that built the regime in a way that without him the system will not function and that you think eventually it will collapse. how long compute last and what happens thereafter if he falls? this is actually through the system is built on personality of looking at him. he wants to send a message to his until to his inner circle that they will not be able to function without him. they will hulick each other. they will destroy each other. if we can do that, yes, which means and put him as a mortal person and he's not young. then when he is gone, the system will have to change. how will it change? initially they will try to coordinate among themselves, but then eventually they will see the mom of them has put him scared,

even though none of them have genius support from the public. don't forgive that we can have certain base of support because he has presided over economic prosperity of 1st 10 years in power. and so in order to get this popular support, either they will install something like the north korean regime of altamont regression and they don't, it will work because russia is not, not getting that much more sophisticated and industrialized than the case that society or they will need to become a prosperity and for that they will negotiate with in, with ukraine, to remove the function. so we will see something like in your that is throwing. if we can go now who put in die himself or they will kill him, all they will remove him from power. that's a very difficult question, which is very hard to predict. but if you lose the war in ukraine, for example, if put him, if we can move this crimea, this will drastically reduce his chances to stain power because he bet everything

he had from this war. so it's little hard to predict, right? non democracy seems changed in the predictable way. so still, this is a system build on put in once he's gone the system, the change. what about reparations? and justice the i c. c says ukraine is a crime scene that encompasses a complex and broad range of alleged international crimes. do you think that we will see, put and brought to justice? i think put in the everything he can to avoid that. and yet we've seen, for example, the flow, but on the loss of each was brought to the hague. so things happen yet, i think all russian civil society and the position are united in understanding that the real piece with ukraine ease return to the borders of 1991. so give back all the rest of occupied in 2014 in 2022 in 2023. so give me a, give back. east ukraine. pay reparations. and the sand work criminals to the

international tribunal, either itc or other international pre be set up for the war crimes of this more. there is no disagreement on this. alex valley has written and letter announced that this is his view. this is his vision of history, the grants, the same of done by the russian and the work committee of which i am a founding member in rush and action committee, which i'm also funding. and how can society process and deal with the hard committed and ukraine? do you have any hope that change will happen anytime soon? it's not going to be easy. you talk to me from germany. germany has gone through this process after 1945. it's not been easy. it's not been easy. it was not immediate. it was not all this how to do it in the right way. but now germany's a free democratic peace will come to some people will do have, say, to peaceful. but i think germany has done it. other countries have done it,

and russia is not genetically inferior. whoever says that russia always has to stay at a craddick. it was a fob in the race. i called it ah, ah, we will be able to rebuild the country and create the free democratic pro european russian. so okay, great. we have to leave it there. thank you so much for your time. thank you for joining us on conflict sound. thank you sir. ah ah ah ah ah ah

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the universe and the rest were series 40 to the answer. almost every thing this week on p w. ah ah, this is to got your new with live from berlin, joe biden gets the rock starts. welcome in the republic of ireland. ah, the u. s. president with ida shultz, is greeted by children child after school. it fell off to march 25 years of peace in northern.