ah, the price, a life trucks between poverty and brutality. in 45 minutes, w. a thought they were great, it will be my guess this week on conflicts own was one of the most prominent members of russia's well connected power, elite, former kremlin advisor and economist, sergey gloria was head of a top economic university and was being re elected to the supervisory board of spare, buck rushes largest lender when he suddenly fled to france 10 years ago saying he fear for his safety. i'm not, i'm not

a brief person. so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh these people are now in jail. and they will remain in jail is longest, jim, he's in the credit now as a professor of economics and provost, etc, on po, his work illuminates how authoritarian regimes like food and survive. how does he assess putin's grip on power and how much longer can put in fund his for amid military setbacks and sanctions? ah, they're gay gray of welcome to complex zone. thank you. sorry for inviting me. the fighting continues as the invasion of ukraine is now in its 2nd year. how long can put and hold on and continue to fund this war. so this is the question which depends on many factors in minneapolis factors we don't know. so food is already faced in mentor. financial constraints want the oil functions were

introduced in december, they were late, but it's better to have it late than never. he is now finding difficult to finance his war, but he still has a lot of resources including the resources he accumulated during 2022 when the work has actually frozen the course of the central band, but continue to buy russian oil and gas that's given. put in more money and yet we see that in the recent months, who tim has difficulty to find farms to buy, buy technology, to produce weapons, to produce jewelry shells. so we see that, for example, that frontline doesn't really move in the last half a year. and that's also an impact of economic sanctions, economic social limits, the ability to kill ukraine. so then tell us, because put in is said to be using the countries reserves to cover the gap in the

budget. and you mentioned that there that a big chunk of that, some $300000000000.00 are already frozen by sanctions. how long do you think the money runs out the money that he does have access to? so once again, it's not clear because a lot of are going on the data now classified recall tim, we don't know, for example, how healthy is the banking system. so you for there is a lot of cash in the banking system. he can borrow from russian man and continue to finance the war. it's also not clear at which cost he buying the military technology through 3rd countries like turkey, india, china because in so many of the data we don't know. but we see that every additional 1000000000. he gets his pounds on buying weapons and he can soldiers in so in this particular case, i would say the war will continue as longest, put him in power. but intensity of this war,

the number of ukrainian soldiers killed, the number of ukrainian civilians killed. the number of ukrainian sieges destroyed . these depends on how much money would give him. but we feel that in that, in the recent month, the intensity of sending in the front line has been much lower. and we see that the soldiers in general themselves in putting himself started talking about the futility, hunger. they haven't come get particularly shelves. they don't have enough shells to kill ukrainian and that's already good. we also see the intensity of using rockets to undermine ukrainians. ability to provide electricity has diminished. in that sense, the functions which were introduced in december for oil in, in february for oil products has been quite effect. when we look at the overall picture of the economy though, you know the sanctions, they were expected to lead to a macro economic instability. and you have spoken before about this reported

decline and g d p that was smaller than expected. and i'm just wondering if you're looking at the overall situation. if you've been personally impressed with how well the russian central bank has handled the fall out of sanctions. well indeed, when people saw the introduction of unprecedented sanctions in the end of february, actually the 3rd day of the war against the central bank, ah, many experts thought that the russia will follow the way of the new thrill, and we'll have a major macroeconomic disaster. now this functions were unprecedented, so they created the on, on the realistic expectations, but person migrate them on the team, as you mentioned, is much more competent than central bankers and finance ministries in under the sanction country. so russia, central bank manage the installation, manage the capital, capital flow, and in fact,

and they employed the market and let me collapse that said, i should see that russian calling to me using the fashion in spite of pretty high oil price, which is usually very good for us from the conference, in spite of high oil price that we observe last year, russian economy went into the session. and if you look at the quality of life, if you look at believe in standards, if you look at consumer expenditures at these numbers that are minus 10 percent, this is not real. in some people will say, well, the russians don't notice that. well, any fashion to explain how unhappy they are to show how happy there because it's also a very depressive presume now. and i would like to get a little bit more into a little bit later about about what russian think about what's happening. but when we do look at the russian central bank and you've just acknowledge it, that they are key and helping the economy, whether the sanctions are the people who run it,

therefore complicit in the invasion of ukraine and the heroic war. crimes that we have seen committed their well, i'm not, i'm not a judge and i my film would. if i were there, i would keep my job right away because in the every additional dollar, every additional $1000000000.00 that you see for us magic, you save it to give it to put him to kill more ukrainians. and this is of course immoral. but of course, these people managed to convince themselves that they save russian population from poverty, from piper inflation. and so you can always look into the mirror and explain to yourself why you are still there. but of course, these people who continue providing the resources for patients war machine, the actual undermine the long term future oppression. and in the community. they

see russian regime this year. but they of course, destroy the russian economic, political, social, democratic future in the long run. and in that sense, it's economically that's also bad policies just in the long run the tibet bullet and human there right now in 2022 in 2023. the voice macroeconomic clubs, but the help who can to continue destroying national future. do you think that they can leave that's a different question. i think some of them can leave a, but we've seen that many russian business people, for example, committed suicide on the very suspicious circumstances. some fell out the window so we don't know who considered him as a very brutal who has killed the people who betrayed him. put him, has killed people who have always been the podium, them the decision himself. so we shouldn't forget the murder of buddies himself in

2015, we shouldn't get the attempted assassination of quality inn of only 2020. in right . now we are in the middle of the judiciary process. traditionally, in quote, so quote unquote, against him, was that who put the resume or try to kill twice. so you put into the shame, tries to kill its enemies. of course it is going to be variable towards people whom we can consider as a traitor. so i would not judge this people, but if i were them i would, i would try to run the way soon as possible. and this is something i actually did in 2015. here are how the russians are framing the situation for minister laughter off saying the west plan to isolate russia has been a fiasco. he said that russia is strengthening good neighborly relations with the international majority. and i'd like to ask you if there is some truth there because you have china's leader just standing by the side of putin on

a state visit recently. many countries in the global south, including in africa, where russia and major arms export or have refused to condemn the invasion of ukraine. this is going to act. if you look at the bullet that united nations, you'll see that a lot of countries abstain the. but those who support the have very, very few and we talk about 83 and you can go literally 5 countries, which expressed its support for russia. now on the china, this is extremely important in a really happy the china doesn't provide with the rush. if china decided to, we mail out in money to russia that we know that's right. but if china wanted to follow this idea of friendship without limits, china would have provided a weapons without limits and cash without limits and functions will not work. now we see that it's for us to buy munitions and weapons from iran and north korea, which is a much lower quality than chinese weapons engineers,

technology. so we see that there are some limits to russian chinese friendship in. moreover, after she'd been left, you know, you could see the interview changes on bus of the, to the you who said that friendship without limit is rhetoric in china is not support him. a violation of the total sovereignty integrity of ukraine. so there are nuances here. yes, this is right, china is not a with a line on this war in this morning. india is continues to buy russian oil. but still we shouldn't say like that level said that the rest of the world majority of the world support. this is not. so then the me then ask you then, from the economic point of view, because russia has been pivoting, as we've been highlighting, putting says that he is looking for markets belonging to friendly countries where he can re orient energy supplies. how far do you think that those partnerships can go to prop putin and the russian economy?

the key question is, if other countries observe the oil price, cash you mentioned, the price kept imposed by the left. this is the most important issue. now. the said, we want to keep russian oil in the market. so we are happy in india by the rational and why? because the rational cleats, the global market, you will have a crisis and the will market price will go up. so the goal of the west, the goal over a cap is that india buying the ration, but by that at the low price. so put him doesn't have enough money to continue finance and it's more coming back to our 1st question. if the price cap is at $60.00, put in doesn't have enough money to balance the budget and to continue the war with the intensity. if we price camp is lowered, and i hope it will happen that here from 625-545-5250, russian will have less and less money is the longest, the rest of the world, india in particular, pays less for russian oil. and that's the critical question and so far we keep and

we see that india buys more rational, but ration budget is a major deficit. so it looks like the approach does work. how bad is the economy have to get for the position to look shaky? so it's solid is shaking in the sense that put him doesn't have enough weapons to, to occupied, but for half a year for you. now, eventually this war is not bother calling with this war is about the battle ground . you have pointed out a dip, for example, in consumer spending last year. how much you think households are feeling that pinch and do you think that that can translate into real grass roots resistance for the kremlin? we don't know because we are spoken about when the collective collective good assumption then we can continue. this will result in the must, this and the police will join the process. this is something which is very hard to

predict. put him is very worried about this. he pays more and more to the right police. he doesn't write police to you. right. he looks for soldiers and mom, tv, the nation's. he doesn't use what's called national guard for, for the war because he knew the national guard to be that potential protest. now if you think about this, if you're in germany or u k, and you have minus 10 percent change in your quality of life, you will have enormous progress industries. russia is a little different because if you protest international, get beaten on the return in sent to jail for 10 years. and in case of looking kind of was other, they mentioned the month of the speed ease actually 25 years in gen 4 to speaking openly. against the war. so it's a very depressive state is not russia of 2020. it's not rational. 2013 is a very different country. we're not talking about about level of repression. we've

not seen seen. so i would like to ask you a little bit more about the decision that you made to leave the country back in 2013. when you fled, you were widely quoted as saying the following, that you had no issues with putin or media to have despite being the target of investigators. do you regret saying not? i think it was not a well formulated. what to what a man actually i didn't put in there, i'm invited to give me to give me a personal treatment to protect me from russian lawyer other than 4th law in their system. i had issues with putting in midvale for creating a system where the person speaking his mind would have to leave would be, would be to happen in that is that is an issue. i would have thought i would have with the russian government. the cool that you mention is i don't have issues with putting in midvale, if for not interfering personally and protect me from there on about this that's.

that's what this quote was about. it was taken out of put was consolidating power. what do you think might have happened to you if you'd stayed? well, i've seen the various signals found at some point in some point, actually, people who are common. well, sometimes we can send me a signal that nothing can threaten me. sometimes the signal would be, i can be arrested, and sometimes people would say that he's meal source. if i'm typing, this is my support for a mining and you know what happens to people who support the alex and he, he himself, so i, i'm another, i'm another brave person. so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh like i'll explain himself, we actually came back likely. and would you believe what you're like ladyman who came back. these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail as longest,

isn't the camera, but i hope that will not take long. dimitri passcode put in spokesperson confirmed that russia had tightened the restrictions on foreign travel for some who work insensitive areas such as as what you were doing when you were living in russia. there are reports of demanding the surrender of travel documents from some prominent figures and former officials. how much to sent. do you think that there is right now and how many of russians officials want to leave you think? i think you have very widespread defense then at the end, if you have the people in the rational in their circles, because this war has destroyed everything they've done in their life. imagine you're building a business, you're building a company for 30 years now it's gone. imagine you have a car year within, put in bureaucratic and the top of this year is to be actually to get a warrant or for international criminal court. so you are a want that person. so all these people are getting the, i'm happy,

i'm just recently a couple of weeks ago we had this city, oregon overcome ation between 2 people who publicly support put him. but in this conversation between them, one musical producer and one energy energy business, or some, they are using words i would never war would never use for criticized input. and everybody's on, of course, everybody's on package, but you're right. i started to speak about this a long time ago more than 10 years ago in already 10 years ago. the last few months when across the board, i would have a special procedure to international quit like you've written extensively about who in style of leadership more than 20 years ago. and came to berlin and gave a very famous speech in german before the bonus tag, where he said the cold war is over. do you think that that was just a charade back then? do you think that he always had a master plan bent on empire, or has his aims changed over time?

well, i think it's very hard to, it's very hard to guess. now. we know that he's always been corrupt. he's also ramsey done to raj. he's also always around them to rush my samples. so the moment he and i've been the criminal, he started building, he's gillan g pallet, the black palace. so we know that he started all the schemes right away. so he is not in imperial in detail. a built in empire builder, he's more of a palate builder, right. and this a different different thing. but over time you saw that in order to guard to palaces and he is about 20 balances. he needs to create the narrative, which has become the narrative for the entire building of the contract. and so we have to buy. and if you repeat this narrative for 10 years, you eventually start to believe it yourself. and i think now he believes a believe that himself, but he started with the idea that leave and let's leave. so i build my

palaces, but to come let me grow. it's so strong that everybody will happy with mike adoption in my simulation of power. but eventually when they come in growth disappeared and this was obvious that it would, he thought i knew the new america. and so can explain me. he said rational, you know, you will have no income growth, but you're going to be part of the empire. and then of course, according to lay the major role, he was very isolated you in 2 years of cope with. he talked to just a few people who reinforce his brian p. l. narrative with the narrative. and i think by now, he believes that believes it himself. you've also written about when poon cut came to power in 2000, you said that he worked to preserve democratic appearances. and that when he resumed to the presidency in 2012, his play book, it changed it more closely resembled rule by intimidation rule by fear. was that inevitable? what did a change? so what has changed?

he's in the 1st 10 years, he presided over unprecedented economic growth. so russian economy pretty much doubled in the 1st year, 10 years of power in. so he created the social contract where he was popular because he delivered on income growth, wage growth, growth of consumption in, everybody was happy. and then since he was corrupt and he didn't want to have checks and balances, he didn't want to have the mckorick accountability. eventually, economic growth is appears and if you just look at the numbers for them and growth, we have a major decline of gdp in 2009 in the world. economic proud crisis. and then the economy has recovered to pre crisis level, and then it stopped growing because economy was driven by the states crony capitalism put in france control in the world, the whole economy. and so he knew that the numerical and that was the principal change. so in that sense, it was inevitable, but it will also a choice by multi form, not the 5 option,

not to become transparent as well. governed in the course that eventually resulted in this choice, which he may, and this crimea become anti western. and step by step, increase the level of depression. you said that that built the regime in a way that without him the system will not function and that you think eventually it will collapse. how long compute last and what happens thereafter if he falls? this is actually through the system is built on personality of looking at him. he wants to send a message to his until to his inner circle that they will not be able to function without him. they will hewlett on there. they will destroy each other. if we can do that, yes, which means and put him as a mortal person and he's not. and then when he's gone, the system will have to change. how will it change? initially they will try to coordinate among themselves, but then eventually they will see the number of them has got even though none of

them has genius support from the public don't forgive it. we can have certain base of support because he has presided over economic prosperity of 1st 10 years and power. and so in order to get this popular support, either they will install something like the north korean regime of altamont repression. and they don't, it will work because russia is not, not goodies, and much more sophisticated and industrialized medicaid society, or they will need to become a prosperity and for that they will negotiate with in, with ukraine to remove function. so we will see something like in your that is throwing if we can, has gone now who put in die himself or they will kill him, or they will remove him from power. that's a very difficult question which is very hard to predict. but if you lose the war and you carry, for example, if put him, if we can lose crimea, this will drastically reduce his chances to stain power because he bet everything he had from this war. so it's hard to predict, right?

non democratic regimes change in the predictable way. so still, this is a system build on put in. once he's gone, the system will change. what about reparations and justice? the icpc says ukraine is a crime scene that encompasses a complex and broad range of alleged international crimes. do you think that we will see, put and brought to justice? i think for him, we'll do everything he can to avoid that. and yet we've seen, for example, the slope and milosevic was brought to the hague. so things happen? yes, i think all russian civil society and the position are united in understanding that the real piece with the ukraine eas return to the borders off 1991. so give back all the territory process occupied in 2014 in 2022 in 2023. so give me a, give back east ukraine. pay reparations. and the sand work criminals to the

international tribunal. either i to see or other international 3 be set up for the war crimes of this war. there is no disagreement on this. alex seen of only his written and letter announced that this is his view. this is his vision of history. the grants, the same of done by the russian and the work committee of which i am a founding member in rush and action committee, which i'm also fundament. how can society process and deal with the horrors committed in ukraine? do you have any hope that change will happen anytime soon? it's not going to be easy. you talk to me from germany. germany has gone through this process after 1945. it's not been easy. it's not been easy. it was not immediate. it was not all this how to do it in the right way. but now germany's a free democratic peace will come to. some people will do him say to peaceful. but i think germany has done it. other countries have done it,

and russia is not genetically inferior. whoever says that russia always has to stay at a credit. it was a fob in the research. i called it ah, ah, we will be able to rebuild the country and create the free democratic pro european russia. so. okay, great. we have to leave it there. thank you so much for your time. thank you for joining us on conflict sound. thank you sir. ah ah ah ah

ah ah ah ah ah ah ah, who are young violence and fear mexico's young guns for hire in search of work, more and more aimless millennials are joining the cartels the

price a life traps between poverty and brutality. in 15 minutes on d w o, there's is the story of many ukrainians before russia's invasion, marta and siri had trained as volunteers for emergencies since the beginning of the war, they have been in combat even fighting directly at the front focus on europe. even 90 minutes on d w. o. the only way i can be up top is to create my own empire,

discover stories with just a click away. majority of the destination, right? find out they stuck in the trees with the full fry. now i can name tree guardians of truth. my name is john kinda and i have paid almost every price of being a journalist in a country like to ah, taking all the powers that be they risk everything john, don't dar? asks activists, journalists and politicians living in exile too much on my shoulders. but i have to hold this weight because i'm responsible for the future of our country, for the people who are behind the bus they live for their mission. people need

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