nigerian women, so sick, so they're always saying the same thing about you get to go without having to pay it. obviously that's all in line m n a forms. yes. and then we succeed in restoring this young girls ability to treat it. it's something that really is price and measurement that gives me known to what i do. the trio combating, shooting dealings, starts april 29th on d, w. i my guest this week on conflicts own was one of the most prominent members of russia's well connected power, elite, former kremlin advisor and economist, sergei. gloria was head of a tough economic university and was being re elected to the supervisory board of spare. bach rushes largest lender when he suddenly fled to france 10 years ago, saying he feared for his safety. i manada, i'm another brief person,

so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail, is longest for jim is in the credit now as a professor of economics and provost at sea on po his work illuminates how authoritarian regimes like prudence survive. how does he assess putin's grip on power, and how much longer can put in fund his war amid military setbacks and sections ah, survey gray of welcome to conflict zone. thank you, sarah, for inviting me. the fighting continues as the invasion of ukraine is now in its 2nd year. how long can put and hold on and continue to fund this war. so this is the question which depends on many factors and minneapolis factors. we don't know. so food is already faith in mentor, financial constraints, once the oil functions were introduced in december, they were late,

but it's better to have it late than never. he is now finding difficult to finance his war, but he still has a lot of resources including the resources he accumulated during 2022 when the work has actually frozen the course of the central band, but continue to by russian oil and gas that's given. put in more money and yet we see that in recent months, who tim has difficulty to find farms to buy, buy technology, to produce weapons, to produce artillery shells. so we see that for example, that frontline doesn't really move in the last half a year. and that's also an impact of economic sanctions, economic social limit, put into ability to kill ukraine. so then tell us because pollutant is said to be using the country as reserves to cover the gap in the budget. and you mentioned it there that a big chunk of that,

some $300000000000.00 are already frozen by sanctions. how long do you think the money runs out the money that he does have access to? so once again, it's not clear because a lot of are going on, the data are now quite find very colton. we don't know, for example, how healthy is the banking system. so you've got, there is a lot of cash in the bank and system. he can borrow from russian man and continue to finance the war. it's also not clear at which cost he buying to the military technology through 3rd countries like turkey, india, china, covered in so many of the data we don't know, but we see that every additional $1000000000.00. he gets his pounds on buying weapons and he can soldiers in so in this particular case, i would say the war will continue as longest, put him in power. but intensity of this war,

the number of ukrainian soldiers killed the number of ukrainian civilians killed. the number of ukrainian sieges destroyed. these depends on how much money would give him. but we feel that in that, in the recent month, the intensity of streaming in the front line has been much lower. and we see that the soldiers in general themselves and putting himself started talking about the futility, hunger, the habit hum, get particularly shells. they don't have enough shells to kill ukrainian and that's already good. we also see the intensity of using rockets to undermine ukrainians. ability to provide electricity has diminished, in that sense the sanctions which were introduced in december for oil and in february for oil products has been quite effect. when we look at the overall picture of the economy though, you know the sanctions, they were expected to lead to a macro economic instability. and you have spoken before about this reported

decline and g d p that was smaller than expected. and i'm just wondering if you're looking at the overall situation, if you've been personally impressed with how well the russian central bank has handled the fall out of sanctions. well, indeed, when people saw the introduction of unprecedented sanctions in the end of february, actually on the 3rd day of the war against the central bank, ah, many experts thought that the russia will follow the wheel of the new sewell and we'll have a major marker economic disaster now this functions were unaffected them, so they created the prison on the realistic expectations. but person macroeconomic team, as you mentioned, is much more competent than central bankers and finance ministries in under the sanction countries. so russia, central bank manage the installation, manage the capital capital flow, and in fact,

they employed the macroeconomic clubs that said, i should see the russian calling to me using the fashion in spite of pretty high oil price, which is usually very good for us from the company, in spite of high oil price that we observed last year ration economy, windham to recession. and if you look at the quality of life, if you look at the live in standards, if you look at consumer expenditures at these numbers that are minus 10 percent, this is not real. in some people will say, well, the rational will notice that, well, any fashion to explain how unhappy they are to show on there because it's also a very depressive presume now. and i would like to get a little bit more into a little bit later about about what russians think about what's happening. but when we do look at the russian central bank and you've just acknowledge it, that they are key and helping the economy, whether the sanctions are the people who run it,

therefore complicit in the invasion of ukraine in the heroic war. crimes that we have seen committed their well, i'm not, i'm not a judge and i myself would. if i were there i would keep my job right away. because indeed, every additional dollar, every additional $1000000000.00 that you see me for the budget. you save it to give it to put him to kill more ukrainians. and this is of course immoral. but of course, these people managed to convince themselves that they save russian population from poverty, from hyper inflation. and so you can always look into the mirror and explain to yourself why you are still there. but of course, these people who continue providing the resources for patients war machine, they actually undermine the long term future oppression. and in the community,

they see russian regime. this year, but they of course, destroy the russian economic, political, social, democratic future in the long grants. and in that sense, it's economically that's also bad policies just in the long run the tibet bullet and human there right now in 2022 in 2023. the voice macroeconomic clubs, but the help who can to continue destroying national future. do you think that they can leave that's a different question. i think some of them can leave a, but we've seen that many russian business people, for example, committed suicide on their very suspicious circumstances. some fell out the window so we don't know who considered him is very brutal. who has killed the people who betrayed him. put him, has killed people who have always been a podium, them the decision himself. so we should forget the murder of, but he, himself, in 2015,

we shouldn't get the attempted assassination of quality inn of only 2020. in right . now we are in the middle of the judiciary process. traditionally, in quotes, quote unquote, again for the midterm, was that who put into the gym or try to kill the way? so you put into the shame, tries to kill its enemies. of course it is going to be variable, don't the words people who put him consider straight or so i would not judge this people, but if i were them i would, i would try to run the way soon as possible. and this is something i actually get into something. here are how the russians are framing the situation. foreign minister laughed off saying the west plan to isolate russia has been a fiasco. he said that russia is strengthening good neighborly relations with the international majority. and i'd like to ask you if there is some truth there, because you have china's leader, just standing by the side of bruton on

a state visit recently. many countries in the global south, including in africa, where russia is a major arms export or have refused to condemn the invasion of ukraine. this is going to act. if you look at the ball with the united nations, you'll see that a lot of countries abstained. but those who support the very, very few and we talk about 83, and you can go literally 5 countries which express its support for russia. now, on the china, this is extremely important in a really happy that china doesn't provide with us to rush if china decided to prove that we mail out in money to russia. that we know that's right. but if china wanted to follow this idea of friendship without limits, china would have provided a weapons without limits and cash without limits and functions would not work. now we see that it's for us to buy munitions and weapons from iran and north korea, which is a much lower quality than chinese weapons engineers,

technology. so we see that there are some limits to rush to his friendship in. moreover, after she'd been left, you know, you could see the interview or change the bus of the, to the you who said that friendship without limit is that rhetoric in china is not support him. a violation of the total sovereignty integrity. a few great. so there are nuances here. yes, this is right, china is not a with a line on the shore in this morning. india is continue to buy russian oil. but still, we shouldn't say like, when you said a level said that the rest of the world, majority of the world support this is not. so then the me then ask you then, from the economic point of view, because russia has been pivoting, as we've been highlighting, put and says that he is looking for markets belonging to friendly countries where he can re orient energy supplies. how far do you think that those partnerships can go to prop putin and the russian economy?

the key question is, if other countries observe the oil price, can you mention the price can't impose may the west? this is the most important issue. now. the said, we want to keep russian oil in the market. so we are happy if india buys rational and why? because of rational creek, the global market, you will have a crisis in the market, price will go up. so the goal of the where the goal of oil price cap, if the india buys ration, but by that at the low price. so put him doesn't have enough money to continue finance. and this one coming back to our 1st question. if price camp is at $60.00, doesn't have enough money to balance the budget and to continue the war with the same density. if we guys camp is lowered and i hope it will happen this year from 625555250. russia will have less and less money is the longest, the rest of the world. india in particular, pays less for russian oil. and that's the critical question. and so far we keep and

we see that india bike more rational, but the ration budget isn't major deficit. so it looks like the approach does work, how bad is the economy have to get for the position to look shaky. so it's solid. he's shaking in the sense that he doesn't have enough weapons to, to occupied bust motor for half a year for a company. and now eventually this war is not about the warning with this war is about the battle ground. you have pointed out a dip, for example, in consumer spending last year. how much do you think households are feeling that pinch and you think that that can translate into real grass roots resistance for the kremlin? we don't know because we are spoken about when the collective collective good assumption, then we can continue. this will result in the mass and the police will join

the profit. this is something which is very hard to predict. who do is very worried about this. he pays more and more to the right police. he doesn't write police to you. right? he looks for soldiers and mom nations. he doesn't use what's called national guard for, for the war because he knew the national guard to be a potential protest. now if you think about this, if you're in germany or u k, and you have minus 10 percent change in your quality of life, you will have enormous progress industries. russia is a little different because if you protest him actually get beaten up to return in san to jail for 10 years. and in case of looking cameras, other they mentioned the demand of the speed is actually 25 years in j. 4 to speaking openly against the war. so it's a very depressive state is not russia of 20. 20 is not rational. 2013 is a very different country. we're now talking about about level of repression. we've not seen seen. so i would like to ask you

a little bit more about the decision that you made to leave the country back in 2013. when you fled, you were widely quoted as saying the following, that you had no issues with putin or media have despite being the target of investigators. do you regret saying not? i think it was not a well formulated. what to what a man actually i didn't need to put in there. i'm invited to give me to give me a personal treatment to protect me from russian lloyd other than for the lawyer. another system i had issues with putting in the video for creating a system where the person speaking up his mind would have to leave, would be, would be to happen in that is that is an issue. i would have thought i would have with the russian government the cool that you mention is i don't have issues with putting in midvale, if for not interfering personally and protect me from there on about this that's.

that's what the quote was about. it was taken out of content, put and was consolidating power. what do you think might have happened to you if you'd stayed? well, i seen the various signals found at some point in some point are to people who are common. well, sometimes we can send me a signal that nothing can threaten me. sometimes the signal would be, i can be arrested. and sometimes people would say that he's meal source. if i'm typing, this is my support for anything. and you know what happens to people who support the allocate? he himself so i, i know that i'm another brave person, so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh like i'll explain himself who actually came back likely. and would you believe what you're like ladyman who came back? these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail as longest,

isn't the camera, but i hope that will not take long. dimitri pass golf, put and spokesperson confirmed that russia had tightened the restrictions on foreign travel for some who work insensitive areas such as as what you were doing when you were living in russia. there are reports of demanding the surrender of travel documents from some prominent figures and former officials. how much to sent . do you think that there is right now and how many of rushes officials want to leave? you think? i think you have very widespread defense. the end, if you have the people in the rational in their circles, because this war has destroyed everything they've done in their life. imagine you're building a business, you're building a company for 30 years. now it's gone. imagine you have a car year within, put in bureaucratic and the top of this year is to be actually to get a warrant or for international criminal court. so you are a once a person. so all these people are extremely happy. and just recently

a couple of weeks ago, we had this city, oregon overcome station between 2 people who publicly support put him. but in this conversation between them, one musical producer and one energy energy business, or some, they are using words i would never war would never use for criticized input. and everybody's on, of course, everybody's on package. but you right. i started to speak about this a long time ago more than 10 years ago in already 10 years ago. the last few months when they cross the border, i would have a special procedure to international quit. you've written extensively about who in style of leadership more than 20 years ago, and came to berlin and gave a very famous speech in german before the bonus tag, where he said the cold war is over. do you think that that was just a charade back then? do you think that he always had a master plan bent on empire, or has his aims changed over time? well, i think it's very hard to,

it's very hard to guess. now. we know that he's always been corrupt. he's also ran, he's done to roger. he's also over there to them to rush as my samples. so the moment he arrived in the kremlin, he started building, he's gillian g pallet, the black balance. so we know that he started all the schemes right away. so he is not an imperial imperial. a built in empire built, he's more of a pallet builder, right. and this a different different thing. but over time, you saw that in order to guard balances, and he is about 20 balances and he needs to create the narrative which has become the narrative of empower buildings, of pickup truck. and so we can buy. and if you repeat this narrative for 10 years, you eventually start to believe it yourself. and i think now to believe the believe that yourself, himself. but he started with the idea that leave and let's leave. so

i build my palaces, but the come let me grow. it's so strong that everybody will happy with mike adoption in my sense, reservation of power. but eventually when they come in growth disappeared. and this was obvious that it would, he thought i knew the new america and so can explain me actually said the rational, you know, you will have no income growth, but you're going to be part of the empire. and then of course, according to play the major role he was very isolated your into years of cope with . he talked to just a few people who reinforce his brian p. l. narrative with the narrative. and i think by now if you believe that, believe that kim self, you've also written about when poon cut came to power in 2000, you say that he worked to preserve democratic appearances. and that when he resumed the presidency in 2012 his playbook, it changed it more closely resembled rule by intimidation rule by fear. was that inevitable? what did a change? so what has changed?

he is in the 1st 10 years, he presided over unprecedented economic growth. so russian economy pretty much doubled in the 1st year, 10 years of power in. so he created the social contract where he was popular because he delivered on income growth, wage growth, growth of consumption, and everybody was happy. and then since he was corrupt and he didn't want to have checks and balances, he didn't want to have the microphone don't ability. eventually, economic growth is a period. and if you just look at the numbers for them and growth, we have a major decline of gdp in 2009 in the world. economic proud crisis. and then the economy has recovered to pre crisis level, and then it stopped growing because economy was driven by the state crony capitalism put in france control in the world, the whole economy. and so he knew that the new narrative and that was the principal change. so in that sense, it was inevitable, but it will also a choice by multi form not to fight corruption,

not to become transparent and well governed in the course that eventually resulted in this choice, which he may and next crimea become anti western. and step by step, increase the level of depression. you said that that poor built the regime in a way that without him the system will not function and that you think eventually it will collapse. how long compute last and what happens thereafter if he falls? this is actually through the system is built on personality of looking at him. he wants to send a message to his to his inner circle that they will not be able to function without him. they will kill each other. they will destroy each other. if we can do that, yes, which means and put him as a mortal person and he's not, you know, and then when he's gone, the system will have to change. how will it change initially they will try to coordinate among themselves, but then eventually they will see the number of them has put in. none of them has

genius support from the public. don't forgive it. we can have certain base of support because he has presided over economic prosperity of 1st 10 years and power . and so in order to get this popular support, either they will install something like the north korean regime of altamont repression. and they don't, it will work because russia is not, not goodies, and much more sophisticated and industrialized than the decatur society, or they will need to become a prosperity. and for that they will negotiate with the best in with ukraine to remove function. so we will see something like in your that is throwing up. if we can go now, we'll put in die himself, or they will kill him, all they will remove him from power. that's a very difficult question which is very hard to predict. but if you lose the war and you pray, for example, if put him, if we can lose crimea, this will drastically reduce his chances to stain power because he bet everything he had on this war. so it's really hard to predict, right?

non democracy machines change in the predictable way. so still, this is a system build on put in. once he's gone, the system will change. what about reparations and justice? the icpc says ukraine is a crime scene that encompasses a complex and broad range of alleged international crimes. do you think that we will see, put and brought to justice? i think food will do everything he can to avoid that. and yet we've seen, for example, the slow boat on the loss of which was brought to the hague. so things happen? yes, i think all russian civil society and the position are united in understanding that the real peace with ukraine eas return to the borders of 1991. so give back all the territory rush occupied in 2014 in 2022 in 2023. so give me a give back ukraine. pay reparations, and the sand work criminals to the international tribunal,

either itc or other international 3 be set up for the war crimes. over this war, there is no disagreement on this. alex seen of only his written and letter announced that this is his view. this is his vision of distribute grants, the same of done by the russian anti work committee, of which i am a founding member in russian action committee, which i'm also on the member. how can society process and deal with the hard committed and ukraine? do you have any hope that change will happen anytime soon? it's not going to be easy. you talked to me from germany. germany has gone through this process after 1945. it's not been easy. it's not been easy. it was not immediate. it was not all this how to do it in the right way. but now germany's a free democratic peace will come to some people will do him say to peaceful. but i think germany has done it. other countries have done it,

and russia is not genetically inferior. whoever says that russia always has to stay at the craddick. these arrows are full in the races. i called it ah, ah, we will be able to rebuild the country and create a free democratic pro european russian. so okay, great. we have to leave it there. thank you so much for your time. thank you for joining us and conflicts out. thank you, sir. ah ah ah ah ah ah

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ah ah ah ah, this is d w. news live from berkeley, potentially more polish fighter jets for you. cry. also asks berlin for permission to send some soviet designed 5 digits. do you grant? germany says its answer will come swiftly, also coming up tensions linger in the seas around taiwan,