possible at any time, will it be the next time paying naples under the volcanic threat d. w. as you go to use this with also will graham with top secret pentagon documents leaks online have provided some painfully detailed accounts of ukraine's military capabilities. and our rare window into how washington is thinking about the war div has been quick to insist that the leaks won't affect their plans counter offensive. but the documents will reveal weaknesses in the ukrainian military and open questions about its ability to make major games. today

on to the point where looking at the pentagon leaks and asking, how does the u. s. really see the more you right? hello and welcome. i'm clear, richardson in berlin, and i'm thrilled to welcome a fantastic panel of gas who can help us understand the repercussions here with me in our berlin studio we have at thomas vehicles, a journalist focused on defense and security policy. or it's got my net chief reporter for the german political magazine at cicero, sorta, david, well, director of the german marshall funds, berlin office. and joining us from frankfurt, we have been hodges former retired us lieutenant general, and chairman of the globe sack future security and defense council.

thank you all so much for making the time 1st. let's talk about how we got here. we have a dump of classified documents that appear to be from earlier this year, appearing on line. they include american military assessments of the war in you crate. i want to go 1st to general hodges a to start us off. general hodges, as is clearly a serious national security breach. but how dangerous is this information for ukraine's war effort? well, to be honest, it's embarrassing. of course, it's damaging of to the trust necessary for relations that help us share intelligence with allies and partners and. and with ukraine, and you never want the enemy to know what you know about them. having said that, the actual content of what was leaked or discovered, i don't think is going to be damaging in the near term, at least to ukraine's upcoming offensive. or what's happening on the ground right

now, most of this information was already known or probably expected. but it is frustrating for me that the government, the u. s. government, but still has not clearly identify what our strategic objective is. and then when the pentagon says, oh, we're not so sure that this offensive will be as successful as people think. well, it's a self fulfilling prophecy because the pentagon has not provided everything that ukraine needs to be successful. i miss david. well, do you agree? how damaging do you think this is for us efforts to support ukrainian this war? i mean, i don't think the larger picture, it's going to necessarily change decision making with regard to support for ukraine in the short term. but i think it's more damaging, as general hodges said for us credibility. but the fact of the matter is, we've been through this experience before, you know, at, like, 10 years ago with snowden, for example. and the question,

i think some us voters are also thinking are, you know, how is the u. s. government handling classified documents? who has access to it? and are also, are we in a situation where there's an over classification of documents? i think it's going to prove to be more of a domestic challenge for the by an administration rather than a problem with support for ukraine and which vehicle do you agree? i mean with this kind of leaky intelligence, do you think you as allies are going to think twice about sharing information with washington? oh, no. first of all, as has been said, it's not that surprising. what we've seen in these documents, most of it could be expected, should have been expected. it's more about the standing of us intelligence, as you said, and we have those with every nation and nato. everybody at some point had this embarrassing experience that there were leagues, there were things revealed. so i would look more what this means for the

political relations between the us and ukraine. esther hodges said, do they do enough, or are they willing to do more? that's upon to which should be the discussion about not what details we find in those leaks. well, i'll pass that straight on to it, mister gotten, and then how do you think this is going to affect the u. s. ukraine relations? i don't think that it is equally effective us ukraine relations. it's put some damage to the image of a american secret services because they are seen as highly professional in contrast to the german secret services. for example, i wouldn't like to imagine if something like that happened from the leak like that happened from the german side that the embarrassment would, would be very high, but also it would have been expected expected. but yeah, i also think that the concrete damage to possible ukrainian counter

offensive it's, it's not very high. ok, so this is all business as usual for in the united states. before we go any further to help us understand what these documents have actually highlighted. let's take a closer look at what was included in those pentagon leaks. in early february, u. s. intelligence apparently down to the triumphal keys and moving to the washington post, expected only modest territorial gains training new troops, lack of ammunition, and the strong defense of the russian side. issues particularly explosive, according to the leaks ukrainian air defenses are in danger of collapsing and may, due to a lack of missiles. russia could then gain s supremacy over ukraine. key vend, washington are seeking damage control. it's a mixed problem. it's a mix of truth and untruth. useless people now observe throughout the locked door.

i'm confident that we will meet ukraine. the french drainage through his brain can be on this program, have repeatedly made clear we will stand by ukraine for as long as it turns. but does the us really believe ukraine will win? so general hodges, that really is the fundamental question, is the u. s. it saying one thing in public, but another thing and private altogether will learn what was my president has accomplished along with the heads of government and state of 49. other countries is amazing to keep everybody together. certainly the russians would not have expected this sort of unity for 14 months after the beginning of their, the full scale invasion. of course, this war started 9 years ago. but the administration has not been able or willing

to say that we want ukraine to win. if i said that, then probably berlin, london, and paris would feel comfortable saying and as well. and then there would be no problem was shortage of missiles or long range precision capabilities. that because i can or are not willing to commit to ukraine, actually winning to defeat russia for what there's 2 or 3 reasons, at least for this though, we continue to provide capabilities incrementally. mean to morrow was the next meeting of the friday. the 21st is the next meeting of the ramstein contact group. you know what's, what's come out so far that we anticipate being delivered does not include any air and missile defense. a deal we've known about my own is from ocean thinks that ukraine actually can win this war. is it a question of commitment, or is it a question of belief? i i think that the administration is not entirely sure. i'm sure,

and there is no doubt they could win this year if the united states would make that commitment. but because the government in nothing, the pentagon, which is one of the most conservative institutions in america, conservative insurance risk, oh, are not willing to provide all those things because they're worried about escalation or they're worried about china order. busy or worried about what happens to russia after ukraine does defeat them? them as david. well, what is your view on that? do you think the vitamin ministration really feels that ukraine is in a position to when i'm certain that there are doubts within policy makers in the, by the administration about whether ukraine could fully win back territory that was lost over last year, but also regain the crim i think winning in ukraine is important for the biden administration, simply because this is now not just a war that russia is waging,

but it's become a proxy war with china as well. and so for that matter, i do think that the u. s. has an interest in seeing ukraine succeed, but as general hodges says, they don't want to necessarily give them all the kit that they need because they're worried about escalation. and it's not just the foreign policy ramifications about defeat of russia and china's role. it's also about an election that's coming up next year. and president biden wants to be is, is careful and is not as careful to be risk averse. and also i'm highly incremental rather than i'm committing everything all at once. and what are the stakes there in the united states? if we see a change of administration and say, former president donald trump return to power, do you think i'd expect to much different? well, that's a whole different as the program maybe next week. but i do think for the most part, mainstream republicans, if there are any left, and that many of the mainstream democrats, because of bo sides of the aisle. there are wings of each party that want to hold

back in terms of support for ukraine. but for the most part in the senate and democrats in the house do support ukraine and actually are pressing the administration to do more. okay, so let's turn back to the leaks themselves. mr. gotten one of the key things to come out of these leaks. it appears the u. s. does doubt ukraine's expected counter offensive this spring is likely to yield big gains. you would think that would be quite damaging, but it sounds like officials in keith are actually not as worried as you might expect. what do you think is going on there? well, i think her in key if they have quite a realistic view of their own capabilities on the other side, they understand that in order to keep the western support going, they have to show results. in this spring, all the western partners basically are waiting for the beginning of this spring offensive. some thought it could have started in march. some thought it could start

now, but maybe we'll start only in may. i think this is the success of this ukranian counter offensive is very crucial for the future of the whole development of this situation. and do you think that the leaks could, in some ways actually help ukraine? because if they've pointed to shortages in ammunition and weapons that are things that ukraine has been saying for months that they needed salenti begging as fast on the table saying we need more ammo. well may be. but on the other hand, you credit has been saying this for quite a time, and there is some speeding up of him. in addition deliveries, we've seen the u. s. packets last night. $325000000.00, which mostly consists of ammunition, rockets and t. demolition or demolition for tanker barriers and things like that. so there is an understanding we've seen the delivery of at

that event systems including elephant rockets from the us, germany and the netherlands. there is an understanding, however, whether the amount of help when it comes to ammunition is sufficient and the ukrainian defense minister resnick of this morning pointed out that air defenses, the top priority at the moment, which from his point of view, includes f. 16 fighter jets, which is not a point where still the debate is going on. but i think from both sides, ukrainian of the western side, it's understood that the delivery of ammunition, that the main topic at the moment now air power was one of the pieces of information that came out in these lease. that was potentially among the most damaging and sensitive i that's about the sorry state of ukraine's air defense. maybe general hodges can take this question and they had dire warnings that they

might not be able to protect the front lines by the end of may. and even a table that came out in these leaps, actually detailing what kinds of missiles would run out at that point. so it's obviously not the kind of highly sensitive information i that you want out in the public. do you think that the united states would be able to step in and provide this kind of material in time for ukraine? and if i am having some trouble hearing you there are general hodges will come back to you with that question about mr. vehicle navy, you'd like to take it. do you think the u. s. could be in a position to make up the gap where ukraine has said and what these leaks showed is missing air power and not sure. well the u. s. has allowed to sort of these kinds of ammunition, but i think altura neat oil countries in europe would have to step in as well and to deliver that's why this come by and whose support they're coming to the,

the pet for their defense. also important that the dutch stepped in as well. they didn't deliver a whole fire unit, but just to launch us and an unspecified number of rockets. so everybody in the west has to contribute. i think. ok, now i also asked how these leaks could affect russia. i'll put this question to you, mr. guzman. and some of the files have suggested that special forces from nato are actually including the united states countries, where nato members are operating inside of ukraine. do we know who these people are and what they're doing? and what russia might say about this development? okay, this, this was, of course, a very nice for the russian propaganda. and for people in the west to believe that this whole conflict is made up by the west. and western soldiers are already fighting in ukraine against russia. mainly these special forces, i mean,

which numbers that we see, we saw like 1514018 from different major countries or western countries. as i understand it, they were basically securing the compounds of, of the embassy. and this have you called, is that your understanding clue and is there found it because we expected it as well? as god man said, if you see one special operations forces holder from the netherlands, this is a formidable force. and if you see probably when you go down to the bradenberg gate, where the u. s. embassy and balloon is located. most probably you have some s o f f there as well. we're just in charge of security on the embassy. so as these numbers are not definitely not indicating that nato forces are fighting on the ground in your credit. but as mr. government has suggested,

russian propaganda will absolutely pick up on this fact. i want to ask a general hodges how you think these leaks, it could affect russia and what mistakes are for them. well, of course they're gonna do what they can to do, explored it. but i think that only is for their own domestic guardian site is not going to move the needle one way or the other. not in a significant way amongst a european or american or canadian audiences. oh, my goodness. this has been going on for 14 months. why should we give a toss, what russia thinks or says about this, given the daily war, crimes of their committing that, that's where we need to instead of always responding to or reacting to whatever they might say. you know, we're, we have the moral high ground here. we should be working hard to hold them accountable for their war crimes and keep reminding everybody this is about values from which all of us been of respect for sovereignty, respect for human rights,

respect for international law. there, there is no mistake who the aggressor is here. all right, thank you so much before we go any further. let's take a look at one of the front line of battles where ukraine appears to be ripping through ammunition. we talked about shortages that appeared in those leaks earlier . let's take a look now at what has been a grueling bloody battle in battlements. these pictures are supposed to show by food. according to moscow, about 80 percent of the city is now occupied by russia. british intelligence see russia making creeping advances in back modes while key speaks of heavy fighting. but the situation is under control for how much longer. on the east and from 2 ukrainian soldiers often have to improvise. soviet era, crockett launches angel tanks. and above all, the lack of ammunition on every day warfare for them. duplicate,

how should we protect ourselves? are we supposed to throw sticks at the russians? they couldn't manage without the tags and ammunition left behind by russian troops . theresa can saw the soldier st. then not expecting western basil tags here, green law does. i'm convinced that we will finish this will with soviet equipment. some of there's simply not enough new western military technology for every one of bucket multiple gets us ahead. now, sledgehammers, crowd balls and welding equipment. must the west go all out on alms deliveries. now, as western diplomats demand general hunters, i want to get your thoughts on that report. not painting a particularly rosy picture for ukrainian force is there. do you think the west is in a position to provide the kind of support they need? well, i would actually um, have a different view on this clear bark mood is not the most important fight of this war,

but it's the one that has the most attention and the incredibly brave determined ukrainian soldier by a mood that have been stopping russian forces for 9 months, 9 months, and the ukrainians there are not getting the priority of equipment ammunition because they are playing a role to, to buy time for ukraine to build up its forces for the main effort which is come. and i think honestly in june, when the ground is dry and in, ready to enable a combined arms armoured attire, that will break the so called lamb bridge. so this takes nerves of steel by the ukranian general staff. it also takes great political courage by prison jolene ski because they know they're suffering casualties there. but this is an important role that's being played therein by mood for a much bigger, more strategically important attack. that's going to come up in a month or so. yeah, let's talk more about that,

given your experience. what would you suggest as a military strategy, or what do you expect ukrainian forces to do in june? well, this is all about crimea. crimea is a decisive terrain. you could kill every russian soldier within a 150 kilometers a back moot, that would not change the strategic setting. you liberate crimea, that changes everything. and so i think this offensive will be aimed at number one, isolating the korean peninsula. and they begin to do that by breaking the so called lambert that runs from roast of all the way to the peninsula. then phase 2, they bring out more long range precision weapons that can begin to range all the way on to the peninsula to make it, i'm tenable for russian forces. and then phase 3, at the end of the summer, they actually move in it occupied the peninsula. he's, i'm very confident that this will in fact be possible. i want to put this at you as your vehicle. do you think ukraine has enough men and materials to actually mobilize and effective counter offensiveness nature?

well, i'm not bet optimistic. you're much confident or optimistic of that. crimea really is an objective with which is within the reach of the ukrainian forces in this here . obviously we have also the problem define victory and the definition of victory from key if definitely is including liberation of crimea. the defer the definition in the, in the west also in d. c might be slightly different. and i don't and visit ukrainian troops at the bridge of a couch on the crimean side this year because just the man power of the material won't be there to the chief is, was come back to general hodges to hear his response to that really pentagon leaks painted a very gloomy picture of ukrainian capabilities. why?

why do you think that this will be possible in the coming months? well, of course i have, i have no thomas for years and have great respect for him and he is correct on one thing that they will, the west has failed to identify the strategic objective. we, we, you know, to say that we're with them for as long as it takes us, not an objective. and i think the white house amberlynn are having difficulty saying we want ukraine to win. there's no way ukraine can be safer, secure as long as russia occupies crimea, they'll never be able to rebuild their economy as long as russia occupies crimea. and so this is why it is the decisive terrain. if the west were to decide, yes, we want ukraine to win, and then we delivered the long range precision capabilities that are needed. there was no doubt that crimea would be liberated this year. that loved the russians. you know, they're part of the equation to. they are very fragile, there is not a single russian soldier that wants to be there and their defense industry is in

tatters. their air force has not been able to destroy one single train or convoy bringing equipment or ammunition from poland in over 14 months. i mean, this is basic stuff and they're not able to do it. so i am very skeptical that the russians are gonna put up some kind of defense around crimea the way the soviets did back in the 2nd world war and say, well, let's come back to the west perspective. i recently, a group of former senior diplomats and military advisors riding in the guardian. they urge the west to go all in on its support of ukraine or else risk 8 years long statement. do you think that the united states is going to heat this warning? why think general hottest painted the picture about what ukraine needs to win on the battlefield? i do think that the strategic objective from a political point of view and that needs to be, of course, in sync with what you create needs is that ukraine in the future should be able to defend itself. whether nato, you know,

there's nato membership and cards down the road. that's still a big question mark, but i think the, you know, medium to long term goal is that ukraine needs to be able to defend himself, defend itself, and at that means taking back crimea. then of course, we've got some hurdles to still jump in terms of western support for ukraine. and what about and negotiated peace? i'll come to you here. what conditions do you think need to be met for ukraine to come to the table for russia to come to the table to talk seriously about putting an end to this conflict? while i think that the best outcome would be if the ukrainian counter offensive started in may or in june if they had major successes, them from a position position of strength, they could to start negotiations with russia. okay. well thank you so much for that . if we could discuss this all day, but i'm afraid our time is up a heartfelt thanks to all of my guests for your brilliant insights,

to our viewers at home for watching. if you have any questions or comments, you're watching us on youtube. you can drop a comment below. we'd love to hear from you. i'm clear. richardson in berlin from the whole team working behind the scenes. thanks so much for joining us. with

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