the dw global media on 2023 on germany and online, the increasingly fragmented world with a growing number of forces digital, the amplified, where this clutter can we really need overcoming divisions into vision for tomorrow's journalism. register now and join us for this discussion. at the 16th edition of d w's global media forum, the ukraine appears ready to launch its long awaited counter offensive preparations are coming to an end, according to the government. and expectations are high, not only in ukraine, but also amongst its allies. drone strikes, certain targets in russian occupied parts of crimea, are laying the ground for you cranes move since these areas are crucial progression

resupplied. at the same time, russia is building a trench networks so massive. they are visible from outer space and launching nicely air attacks on q of and other cities. ukraine's defense minister says his land is defending not only itself but year and has earned a full membership in nato. today we're asking ukraine's counter offensive tenants nice expectations. the hello and welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to welcome our guess beginning risk for stuff, right, to who reports from conflict phones, including ukraine for the german german news magazine. dish. ego. you hear danco is associate professor at carlos and university and how she's and she's also

a research fellow at the berlin based center for east european and international studies as always. and nick connelly reports from ukraine for dw, and he joins us today from kids. great to see you again, nick, and let me start with you and ask you what signs you are seeing there on the ground . that in fact, this long, the way the counter offensive is, is, is now a pending well, we all finally seeing lots of those things on ukraine's wish list in terms of western weapons. finally arriving at different systems. those tanks that we just knew on everyone's minds full months since the meaning no progress coming that finally is materializing. as for actual kind of actions of the ground, we've seen a bit of an attempt by the cranes to attack course and positions on the other side . of the new port river from capstone, but very little in the way of a full scale attack. i think the expectations just on mounting and everyone feels like the granting government now has under this huge pressure to deliver some results these explosions uh in occupied crime. yeah. what's behind that?

i think this is about disrupting rushes, logistics, it's about depriving them of fuel, of the ability to bring in supplies to that garrisons. they have kind of thought that occupied premier was that kind of safe into land. and i think the ukraine's approving time and time again that it isn't. it's crystal, what's your impression of morale on the ukrainian side as this counter offensive is impending. what we have the experience in the epi center of bevells, i'm in by mode states. we, under a few, made the sauce the how out want ukrainian soldiers have been in this fighting, which is much more brutal than just a using artillery or we has not seen them. or what we don't know is the amount of proper planning to have units. they will not be deployed in any offensive because

they are simply too exhausted box to build up fresh units of the units who participate in this. so we will basically in a different theater, and i want to come back to that question of the strength of ukrainian forces, but there are reports that in fact ukraine has had a massive recruitment drive to bring in new soldiers. and in fact uh to give them really in depth training. can you confirm that your yeah, this has happened and be the other side of the middle of a stick to do is unit off. and the former, the territorial defense groups that were then incorporated into the army, which were based in behold, ended on bus in the south east, um zones of halo. that they felt a bit abandoned on neglected that they bought the brand of the fighting or, and so not rotating with units,

which we use specifically trained specifically to be used in upcoming offensive. mm hm. usually let me ask you about reports that there were explosions over the kremlin. russia is saying that they were launched by ukraine in connection with this impending counter offensive. does it seem plausible that key of actually would stick to attack russia on its own soil? well, uh for me is sweater questionnaire valid? because the extra durations as well again, that is where the tigers, so they don't need any justification for a more intensive attack home ukraine, so they, they definitely don't need these to. but to you quoting, an army tries to a total flies civil population in russia and to implants, but i've been blessed. i'm brought this to some, you know, public mood for the. so i can't exclude that ukraine can be the pato for,

for the separation bought the i would say that the for me more efficient that these happen in with, but she's sick, a change in russia. what type in an inquiry me or, or in other pato fashion than in most collection. and because it's more like a psychological if thank you very much. let's take a closer look. now after months of preparation, including recruitment, resupply and training, how well positioned our ukraine's forces to make significant gains. we looked here at the state of preparations for this long awaited spring offensive. this is the faster pool and russian annex crimea were. fuel depot was allegedly struck by ukrainian drone according to keep the oil tanks were being used by rushes, black sea fleet, apparently access sabotage and russian supply chains are on the right. as at the

same time, ukrainian soldiers are training for an offensive. most of their chink, seen here from the 1970s. their dream machine is the american abrams. a set of most of the brands of like comparing a brand new mercedes as class to an old lata. ukrainian military intelligence is still waiting a possible recapture of pressure occupied territories this year. but you cream it still faces. suppression air strikes meant a torpedo ukrainian attack plan. in the mon and missile has struck an apartment building, killing more than 20 civilians. and poplar rod russian cruise missiles have caused severe damage, killing at least 2 people, sabotage drone and missile attacks. are these the beginning of the offensive?

let me pass that question on to you and let me also get you to comment on the degree to which the ukrainian troops are now supplied with the kind of weapon systems that they need to go ahead. you said the tanks are finally there. we heard the, the soldiers in that report comparing their dream tanks to us abrams to uh, to what they referred to as their old soviet tanks that were like lod as do they in fact have the kind of modern weapon read. they're going to need, as well as far as we understand. now, the abrams are still on their way. it's the german build left the tanks and some of the bridges challenges that are already here. and then there's obviously this huge question of the munitions to go with them. this being consistent program through this will that less than that if you're kind of just assuming you don't understand quite how intensive this war is, that they don't kind of get into their heads. but this is a little being fault over a 1000 kilometers, plus, and when you get announcements from kind of western governments offering to send $23000.00 shelves a month. when this is the kind of quantity gets fired in

a day or even less, sometimes that does leave people scratching their heads here in cuba. as for the kind of easy enough, what we've heard some talk figures here and keeps saying that they think more or less they have what they need. because we don't know what it is exactly that planning how big they're planning to go. and what they're gonna face on the other side, but there was a sense that often months of dragging their feet of kind of endless political ranking and conflict about western governments refusing it can ukraine's a month to finally, a bit of kind of dynamism is not picking up and these deliveries are happening in the most structured and more logical with them and most of the spare parts are being delivered. so that when these western high tech weapons are exhausted, often 234 weeks of intense use that they can then be quickly repaired and said back to the front lines. and they've just been very quick follow up because i know that you have been talking to soldiers on the front line to say they can fight even with old weapons and material. is that in fact the case? do you think or are they perhaps getting themselves or i didn't really depends

what they're trying to do, but suddenly they've been doing a very good job of getting the best out of often weapons that are twice their age. i think it's also, you know, the case that they don't really have a choice, right. they, they all getting it. basically materials are from eastern europe and countries and still produced the soviet era weaponry. and they don't have the choice of saying, well, i'd prefer to wait for the western stuff to arrive. it's just not going to happen. i think, oh, this was just being about improvisation about dealing with that relative discrepancy between what they have, what the russians have and trying to find the russians. weak points. kristof earlier this year in germany made headlines by finally committing to deliver those leopards to tanks. that christa that nick referred to, and it also tried to put together a tank coalition that included promises from the u. s. to deliver abrams. but also the problem is this from other europeans who then drag their feet. where does that

stand now? what is the situation with regard to these much discuss discoveries deliveries of tax? well, the number will be small on pain initially hoped for to be fixed if you have lots. so t 40 or 70 level palm to things be su, remains to be seen cause as makes sense. and the numbers. so small bits, the impact of more than the width in the re can be seen if they use a very specific main, a full one. the quick offensive and this specific area, but on an 11 q will meet the front line. if you have a 100 legal part, that means one the every 100 kilometers. so it's not so much to point to if the numbers on the side or the base i plus what was made

possible is it's an old devotion of leo, but in the higher numbers would be delivered into for ukraine in military. they have been able to refurbish t 62 t 64 tanks from the 60s. we've upgraded material, basically from the home depot, uh from electronic stores. um, so they continue with let me ask you about training because training is obviously key for these new weapon systems that many of the ukrainian soldiers would not have seen before. do they have adequate training now as they prepare to go into this, this new offensive? what my colleagues here from the experiences of the german forces of to train us. yes. but it's, it's less the question is has enough that training facility has enough training being offered, but how do people pick it up? german civic periods was training the, the often army was never really interested in the new, the,

in the fighting is much as the opinion. so it's, it's a mutual understanding the training is offered, but also the very, very quickly adapt get used to it. and i, a extremely interested in being able to run these machines. julia, russia was long, sought to have a decisive advantage in terms of the size of its armed forces. at the outset of the war, key of talked about a mass thing, a 1000000 strong army, apparently a major recruitment drive, as i mentioned earlier, has in fact taken it close to that number. what would you say is the state of morale amongst those ukrainian forces? kristof told us many in fact, at least around, but most of our quite exhausted what is the state of morale as they move towards this new offensive? thank you. so i was calling because my nephew, he's in the ukranian army now, and he's nearby of div cause so where the uh, the injured his place and the,

and the morales is very high there. and that i lot of young people because my nephews only 19 years old and that i, a lot of the young people who joined to queen young are means to join in ukrainian army involuntarily. and with that a liberated here that the, the really eager to be trained and some of them are refusing to get the coffee break, you know, but the, they, they want to, to get know, they just said soon as possible. but really that i a lot of problems with equipment with them, a nation. so it's not only about heavy weaponry, but those, so to the game, you know, the, the personal stuff, for example, that is the 2nd helmet reach a button for my over and course. then i know a lot of volunteers from her gift from people and the people are a collection and lives in money for every day needs that and run them levels

among them on thrones. so really is kind of suitable for 5. so really will be the level of morales very high. but i would say that the, when the west service supplies saw come into your brain, young army, this is due to some notes. so, you know, dangerous for, for you quitting and sold service because they, on the front line to themselves will cover things more secure from, from the back line. and just briefly, if you would, because there have of course, been many, many, please coming from kia for the west to deliver more and faster and obviously some disappointment there. what is, what about among the troops? do they feel that in essence, western allies have left them left them in the lurch? i would say uh they, they have no choice. uh, but to fight back here though. so it's not about the, the lease to, to,

to be involved in this war. but the, the, the, the practical russian army show him that it is larry, you know, cruel war. and that actually they, they stand in for the come to be not the full q you, but as you, for the landscape or somebody else. so those they protect in the mother's their families and they have no, and now they chose it's chris of what do we know about ukraine's aims for the counter offensive? nick said not all that much. we don't know how far it's likely to go. we don't know exactly what form it could take. what are you hearing? well, i would say can what makes it? because if we see retrospectively, the most successful offense, 50, okay. indians, date. it was a total surprise when everybody was exec, expecting the offensive and a 1000. it's that they liberated all the area around how to give in the far east. so even if we were to gates, amy hills where it will stand, which areas it will targets. i would think that is the rather an attempt to divert

attention thing to giving us the real, the taste because nothing would be more detrimental for any success of these offensive if it would be known if it were made public before. so we, we don't know, and we don't think that they will leak. and nick, if i may, a quick look at the russian side, the head of rushes, wagner mercenary group, says that he definitely does see signs of a looming ukrainian counter offensive. and he took the opportunity to complain that his forces and how far too little artillery ammunition and that in fact if things continue as they are, that he would have to consider withdrawing them. artillery was long sought to be a very big problem on both sides. what is the situation now at the moment on that score as well? again, the russians are obviously keeping tight lipped about what they actually have in

the storage units. but i think this is a part would be a power struggle between those, most of the groups fucking up in the most prominent of those and the regular russian army. so there's a sense that he goes in and his troops up being deprived of munitions because they were doing too well. they were getting too much attention and were basically putting the breaking the original me in the shade, especially in terms of all the kind of criminal politics. so i'm not sure that actually means that russia is not able to produce more ammunition university has all the metallurgical facilities has all the factories has basically a soviet era military, industrial complex that is basically set up for executives kind of war. what they all struggling with is christmas oiled. anything that involves a bit more technology because they were basically 100 percent dependent on west and spare parts west and ships and they can't do it on their own us. and. and i want to turn in just a moment to talk about uh, how ukrainian citizens are looking towards this calendar offensive. but um, christopher, if you would just one word once again on expectations,

because i saw one quote this week of from a western military experts saying that in his view the ukrainian forces are now the best equipped, best prepared, best trained army in the world, at least for the kind of where they're fighting, would you agree? uh base the clipped. yeah. because still for the front line which in one line would reach from here to instantly. if you have a 50 or 108150 legal promptings. this is not sufficient. plus, you will have to see that the bronze of the equipment is of the age off. when i was younger from the 76 these and you have a few modem ponds. i think we are a mini military officials here in an illusion about what it means to deliver rather small number of, of high tech equipment. if it's really in,

deployed in the, in an actual battle. because then it might simply be recommend for after one months or the better of that, we'll see a lot of erie patient about these pumps. i hope it's a 2050 barrels of the only 12 months needed to be exchange. you know, of course, if the a used 434-5000 shots, every federal needs to get exchange. but in this our, me or simulation in the waste, they never use them so much. so they have a surprise about wolfram. so now i would not agree with, like, i mean the idea is, yeah, i just want to say, i think most western generals, german american, british have never been and never felt like this. they fought against insurgencies and the police. maybe they've been a peacekeeping missions. but they didn't me, i only know about these kind of who was from them was from the 2nd to maybe even the 1st world war. so they really are often just not able to go off the scale of

based on the intensity. and what we certainly do also know from those prior conflicts, that is, that it's not only the resilience of the armed forces themselves, but also of the larger population that will influence the outcome, both of this counter offensive and of the war as a whole, rushes massive attacks throughout the winter on ukraine's critical infrastructure on its water, electricity and housing have deprived many citizens of their homes and their livelihoods. yet they don't appear to have doubted most people's will to carry on. this woman's house as being demolished because the damage caused by rushing shells during the battle of her pin was far to crate. this her, it's a lot. it's like someone ripped out a piece of my heart or soul. and yet many people want to remain in their homeland, including residence, a chest of yard, which rests near the embattled city of buck moved states. and then there's

a few kitchen in the market where the soldiers need we get whatever's left over. they are holding out hope that you create in troops will push the russians back. ukrainian soldiers enjoy a small diversion with music between compact operations team with my lot, the better we treasure our culture. now more than ever we, because we're united in a common goal, which is victory, but a more maintaining morale. and that's what these moments are all about. where do ukrainians draw their strengths from? and let me pass that question right on to you. yeah. what's your answer to that? where do they draw the strength from? what are you hearing from family and friends? well, my family is in harking now, but also they have a, i have a lot of and friends cmt of or even installed in the ukraine. and i would say the

cohesion, social cohesion and regional cohesion name ukraine, probably the, the highest p, the since the gain and independence in 1991. and actually there are more than 70 percent of people who declare that they tried to make the input in these resistance with the donation. mati with the donation some style for a internally displaced the person so that i lot of people who are switching to ukraine. yeah. if you don't wish to speak russian, especially from the eastern part of your brain, i have these examples in my family. my mom is ethnical russian, but she's speaking only ukrainian now and can see the for self to be ukranian citizen. so the identity to be putting in citizen and actually even to be a you wrote in person is increased significantly and they would say that more than 60 percent. so if you queen, yes,

can see that that ukraine should resist. so that even without the western, you know, assistance, it wouldn't be in the bonded by is less than dollars. and what are the expectations of, of ukraine's citizens in regard to the counter offensive to day expect it to be decisive for the war? or do they have the sense that this war could drag on for quite some time? well, there is no consensus about i call it seem ukraine and that i lot of ma'am send joke, said because you pronounce kind of a brilliant the sense of humor, you know, and it's also part of, of the resilience. so for you putting in society, but i would f p a that according to the decent public opinion poll conducted by a residential center of 93 percent. so. so you're putting a, they believe and you're putting an victory and about 5050 percent. so half of the people believe that the work would be longer than a year. so people are ready to to, you know, to fly to for

a long period with nick. um that one in for ukrainians is now impoverished. many live in rubble. as we could see in that report, what's your impression, how long can people hold out? as certainly as you're living close to the front lines, you meet those people who have lost everything you've lost, their business has looked at homes. but i think actually the kind of surprising reality is that actually you don't see many people in total destitution, most people have already found a way to western europe. so that kind of the refugee state, just as being a real kind of pressure kind of a valve allowed to pressure out and allow people who you don't know what to do. a breather. they can go find, you know, some way to live and be given some kind of benefit, some money to kind of, you know, basically work out what to do next. and then lots of people have moved internally. if you're, as in 2014, you're also moving to key or from eastern parts of the country, funding businesses. so there is a sense that, you know, the economy is now growing once again, and the people are always going to find some way to keep going. even if they've

lost a lot of that quality of life and if their evenings crystal very briefly, if you would, our title asks whether the counter offensive can meet expectations. what would be your answer to that very short? it can, if it's surprising and if we don't know what it is. so the mystery remains. thank you very much to all of you for being with us and, and thank you very much to all of our audience for joining in. see the,

the, the conflict with tim sebastian as the fighting grind zone in ukraine square thought for some of the countries on the edge of the was a table of very these days that small doses found minutes they need to press group is w, struggling to come about i bring the tags from russia and it supporters just how

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wind starts in the 19 d w. the, you're watching the w news coming to live from berlin. russia it maintains its bombardments of ukraine. drone strikes, hip civilian targets in the south of the country, and explosions in teams as the countries air defense as shoot down. and eric drum of their own also coming up on the show growing.