the of the, the 70 years dw, the turkey is poised to hold an election that could prove decisive, not only for the countries democracy, but also for europe and the middle east. and most especially for the leader who has been in power for the past 20 years, rest at tie up to 31 is facing his most contested election ever with a very real chance of defeat. some voters are put off by the president's

increasingly authoritarian rule, but for many it's the economy. corruption, mismanagement, and record high inflation are prompting new support for the opposition coalition. a lines behind kim. ok to leech, download. ok. so we're asking elections in turkey. are the ones moment of truth, the hello and welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to introduce our guest starting with you the hon, who reports for dw, from is simple and is joining us remotely from turkey. i'm also very pleased to welcome d like corvette and she is teaching and researching at the university of copenhagen on human rights. and she also formerly headed the democratization program to

turkish foundation for economic and social studies and also wrote for turkish media . and finally, a great pleasure to welcome sunday, and he's the former editor in chief of the turkish daily. come, who is yet now living in exile here in germany and producing documentary amongst others for dw. let me start if i may with you, john. the other one was james sentenced you 227 years in prison in absent. yeah. and they recently put you on a list of most wanted terrorism suspects. so what are you feeling as you looking to toward this selection that potentially could unseat out of why i have a kind of cautious optimism about the results i'm optimistic because i believe in the power of the people. but i'm cautious because i know way of doing and how he's capable of what know he's, he will do his best to stay in pover. exactly. no one knows better than you that he

doesn't stop and putting the entire power of the state behind efforts to destroy those who block him. so would you really expect him to take a defeat and, and go you know, we know from the us experience, for example, with the, with, from, or, you know, both an arrow in brazil. so those kind of guys, the never want to leave the power of peacefully and do like of course, certainly past elections has been rig. why would we expect this one to be free and fair? well, i think we, we need to, if we look at the past, the last elections that we had in turkey, which were very critical of the 2019 woke of elections there. there were of course, also attempt that you add one and he's was you try to rig worst yet. they didn't actually accept the feats because the molar the position was kind of the one the

municipality stumble, which was a big defeat for ad on because he used to be the main office, couple of himself at the political beginning of his political career. the difference between molar opposition candidates and his wife will add on the 10th of it was only $13000.00 and then the elections were repeated lawfully and the march and then became $800000.00. so the memo that was rejected, that status, you are the ones attempt not to accept the results of a democratic election, multi lice, many people who went to the ballots and some of them change sides to show supports for democracy. and i think this time, i think we should not under estimate the opposition also the opposition parties. all of them have gave considerable expertise and experience in protecting the balance. they are ready for the night. no one is going to sleep as plus their citizen mobilization. there are citizens that will go that are going to be witnesses at the ballots. they're going to be there to watch the council,

if the results, etc. i mean, i think we have enough reasons to be helped optimistic and upfront. so in a way, you're giving us the political science reinforcement of what john told us that you believe in the people the voters themselves. let me go over to you the uh, in is simple in an interview recently with you, the opposition candidates, uh q which to hold you said we will bring democracy to this country and it won't only be seen here in turkey. but in the world, what does the selection mean to the world? why should our voters, whether they're watching in europe, the us, the americas, africa, asia? why should they care about the selection as well? melinda, i would argue these elections are the most important elections globally in 2023 and the stakes couldn't be higher as sundays. both will determine how turkey will be governed in the future. will there be a return to parliamentary democracy or ken aired?

one, extend his rule into a decade under an almost powerful presidency. the votes below, so determine with the country's economy is headed. will there be more market friendly approaches or can add one, continue his very controversial on orthodox economic policies. and then of course, of foreign policy, the opposition was 2 and years of strained relations with key west and partners. the u. s. c, u. nato, and we're talking about talk you right, it's you a strategic powerhouse and nato member. so the opposition of the government, they are offering very different visions for the future of turkey and voters have to make a tough decision here. and we want to take a look at exactly that. let's take a look at the dual between the 2 candidates who could scarcely be more different presidents. the other one has been in power for 20 years. the stall since his

political career as a barrel of hope and innovation. today the opposition and the even form of support says hold the 69 year old, responsible for turkey's transformation into a repressed of one man state. other one has been continuously using caution. polarizing rhetoric against opponents like come on mr. co puts drink as much as you want. this is my nation will not give the floor to an alcoholic. a drug called come from the cross. he is referring to the lead to of the c h p. come out of college to who, who with his common reserved domina is the office of other one. and also his fits his competitor. he heads and the lions of 6 policies and has already survived to assess the nation attempt. still, he preaches unity and reconciliation. on the job, i went discriminate. i will embrace o 85000000 talk to people via valid done and the promises his votes as an

end to despotism, corruption and nepotism, which he already denounced in 2017. with the nerve of $400.00 columbus and marched for justice from and corrupt to east on the other one includes to all who will in the hall, 2 votes of the tuckers people. and let me pass that question straight to julia. because in fact, you have been talking to voters and you've also been accompanying the opposition candidate as he campaigns. he is currently leading in the polls. what would you say when you talk to the voters? how does he stack up against other one or well, you know, mr. calista also has actually made the heart his signature guest or he's holding up his hands in a heart shape. and as you mentioned, he has a narrow lead in the polls and speaking to people, looking at the figures, of course, he could really pull off what was long considered here in the country. he could

indeed manage to beat a president ad one in a 1st round or a 2nd round, a run those 2 weeks later, he's currently pulling between 45 to 5255 percent, and a candidate to win the presidential was needs at least 50 percent of the votes, but let me also remind l voters that our view is a part of the present. an ad one still has the support of many religious conservative voters here in the country. there are many people who tell me, they believe he's the only man who can hold this country together, who can run it effectively and it's going to be a tight race john and speak to that point as well if you, if you'd like. but i'd like to ask you about what we heard in the report where our other one is essentially playing the hate card seeking to polarize the electorate. he's also been playing the fear card. he's said that uh that mr. q. the star who would let tara risk out of jail, would turn the turkish people into l. g, b,

2 years. whatever that means, do you think such polarizing tactics can when voters still it's worked very well for the left to dictates. and that's why this is because he's been using to consolidate his power. and of course just pull ization and hate campaign helped him a lot in the less, less, especially the 5 years. but i guess the people who are really fed up with that know, and they need someone who embraced will the nation and the name of the guys glitch that will i guess or do you like uh, i'd like to just deconstruct the hearts and minds question a bit namely whose hearts and minds seem to be going to which candidate it is sometimes said that the kurdish vote could prove absolutely key for these elections . would you agree and where is it, where is it going to go? yes i'm. that's eunice. experience a past experience and a few past elections show that the kurtz, the curtis party,

has become on the team maker in elections. and this time, 1st of all, they didn't all show their own candidates. second, a full day have whole heartedly support of the hospital. and you can see in the pools that the cities curtis cities could cities in the crisis region have um some of the highest rates of support for commercial in the whole country. but there are 2 more groups though, social speaking youth, 5300000 people will vote for the 1st time this in these selections. of course, the role that has been very smart and addressing them directly. so they will be they will determine the outcome of the election very significantly and then women and here particularly pious women, muslim, you know, practicing muslims who used to be at an ad on space. but add on has in his panic to reach out to, you know, a new parties to expand his alliance mates. in my opinion, critical mistakes by reaching out to,

to is law. most fundamental us political parties that are already threatening to take back some of the games that women have hub, which of course also affects the pious women. plus, of course you didn't mentioned the economy is being really bad and it's women that really see the effects of that. so i think it will be the use women plus of course the curves as always they're going to determine the outcome of the selection. we're going to come back to the economy in a moment, but let's talk about the young people. 13000000 of the 64000000 techs eligible to vote are under 25 years old. let us hear a few of their voices as reported by you. lia han, who was out on the streets, talking to young people. this is a just system know, so i would like to see a democratic touchy, the people who are doing well economically and have more human ryan. so i'm live in the homes, get ahold of you to take of x to get checked. there is only given by one lady told to be more television she unlocked into accepting each other even with all that

difference of it. even if it took place to static sound, boston didn't basement. there was so many of us who really wants to see change. the selection might be our last tongue july, always level loveliness. and julie, as i mentioned, you did speak to those young people. do you think sentiments like the ones that we heard there could prove decisive in the selection? or i think they could be very decisive if we look at the poles and majority of young people want change. they are unhappy with how the economy is being governed. they are unhappy with their future prospects. they also strongly oppose claim downs on lifestyles, democratic rights, and freedoms. this is um, according to the data we have. and then of course, uh, you know, chemicals stole and ready to type out on a bowl so much older than the young voters. they are trying to sway. but i think

what we've seen and coastal is campaign. he's really strategically using social media to address young voters often from his modest kitchen table at home. he is basically telling, telling them, look, i'm here for you, i'm going to solve your problems and these videos uh, a very popular among the young voters. i found myself asking, as i was uh, thinking about that appeal of whether he in a sense, as the bernie sanders of the of turkey. but i decided perhaps that goes too far. let me ask you a child about another group of workers who are considered of voters who are considered very, very important. namely, the working class blue color voters, their sentiments have in the past tended to support the outer ones party the a k p. where is the working class, and now as we see, the economy plummeting is such a polarized country. that's and you can not generalize any group like would,

cuz you would like cetera. so each party has data all share from them. but we have the biggest coalition though, into a case history i guess as well. so we had spoken about lucas, you. um, social democrats. liberals. nation of this is false is lummus and g d can community. all of these codes really amazing. we haven't seen something like this, the full and the only common ground for this is no hatred to fed them and they really want to have a democratic country. this is really very important and i hope it will have an effect. i want to come back later to what a coat coalition. that broad means for governing later on uh should in fact when, but let me 1st talk a little bit about the questions that are upper most in voters minds or the issues and do like it long seemed as if nothing could unseat or the one but that began to change after february's earthquake of the accusations of corruption and crisis

mismanagement that followed it. there was even speculation that out of one might put off the election because he was so concerned potentially that this would have a derogatory effect for him. how determinative, do you think that the earthquake is proving in voters minds? i think it has. it has been very critical indeed. i mean do us quick um, effective 11 improvements as a tool tool and many of which are actually traditionally out on space. so these are some of these places, cities, performances, are those knots traditionally voted for ad on, um, but it was, i mean, of course it was a very big earthquake. but what was really remarkable. i mean, what caused that to a lot of this was the us, her author, lack of any this search and rescue efforts for days for days to go. there was nobody there that was no one showed up. and that, of course, the contradiction of

a political party which speaks about compassion you had on and, and being there for the poor and the sort of control and power mightiness, right. and that's, that's on the one hand and then alter the failure of the faith. basically there were no, there was no institutions that was nothing. and i think that really affected a lot of a lot of people and tested certainly will. i think we'll see that in the results. let's take a look at another concern that many voters say is uppermost in their minds, and it's been mentioned several times. the economy are the ones arbitrary, and idiosyncratic policies has sent inflation, skyrocketing and depress standards of living. in turkey, the long spaces at the markets, customers are buying less and less. the country's economy has been in free, full for years. that's essential. you go to all purchasing how it has gone down

there to earn your value. i used to go to that restaurants over there a lot and the prices were okay because, but now i can't afford it anymore. you disconnect according to the all star as he's inflation is at 43 percent. in reality, however, it is more than twice as high. the toxicity right has also increasing the lost value in recent years. shopping through the how does the scholarship and the student job and that is still also enough? icons are for doctors visits and i can barely make ends meet on top of that, housing is scarce and expensive. many tucker's people blame this unreality far, and those from russia will the arab gulf states, as well as the 4000000 refugees from syria. the situation is particularly 10. cindy asked craig zones when many homes have been destroyed. will the economic situation ru, another one's presidential election? let me pass that question straight onto you julia. if i may, and you are reporting,

are you witnessing rising shots, social and economic precariousness? that could impact the selection? well, the economy is really on top of voters minds. i mean people have been basically seeing their savings melt away. they say they can hardly keep track of the price hikes. um, nobody believes official installation fee goes any more. an independent experts say the real finger is at least twice as high, and even middle class families tell me they find it harder and harder to afford a decent standard of living. and of course, the poor have been hit hardest because full price is prices for very basic staples of vegetables for bread has been skyrocketing in recent years. so there is a lot of frustration and anger here and trying, you know, bill clinton famously said uh, back in one of the elections when he was running. it's always the economy,

stupid. it's always about the economy. but as we heard in that report just now when it comes to housing at least many a k p voters blame for and interests for that rather than add one for their plight. and it seems that some pools indicate that they are doing the same when it comes to economic precariousness. that they say, no, it's not the fault of the leadership. it's the fault of outside interest. what is that, what's, what's happening there? it's the power root propaganda, or if you follow some to dish pro government tvs or read newspapers, you can understand why. i mean, you're, they're spending 5 hours in front of a tv, only spreading propaganda for adam. and y'all, unfortunately, that's worked very well for the last decade. then they don't believe that's at the one could lose something old christian was, it gets to

a key. and unfortunately those media and together with ad on the made people believing that that kind of 30 onto west and on t christian feelings for the opposition candidates kalonde to uh, to each dog unit is viewed as someone who's very quiet, almost safety, self is facing. and absolutely focused on reconciliation. can he really go up against that kind of the survey this information and succeed in that? well, it's an appeal that's all that's the, that's the, that's true. i mean, as john said to you our to on has total control over the state, meet the public schools, casting newspapers, etc. but then there's social media. he cannot control everything. i mean, he did attempt to, to try to close the youtube, but he just this, there's also lives, police power add on is not as might be as pertain. so i think we also need to see that. and we were talking about the use made in the, you know,

that's why control is very smart using the social media you. you also mentioned that, um, so there's a, there is a degree in to which 1st of all are doing can continue controlling. and the 2nd thing is they will always be these pull our doe on very close to the data base. the question then is, what is happening on the other side? what's really important is that for, for the 1st time ever, political position is being called full of dates and they really breaking boundaries. can we start a little comes from this very secularist political party that's used to advocate the very militant speculative secularism. he's now been his coalition. they have, you know, he's side by side by a political party that he used to advocate is lubbock, the, you know, fundamental isn't because they, but they are breaking all these barriers. and the, i'm really, i'm really hopeful, in terms of the unity that they're showing in leading the nation. and, you know, you have support or your showed how it for young people. a lot of these positions

matters less and less because you know, they want to put select, they want another life i just to, people to fix has reached its limitations. i think in turkey, so we have very few minutes left on the clock. let me ask all of you to talk a little bit about scenarios after the election. so usually i, let's say that in fact uh, the opposition candidate, mr. cuz it started wins and add the other one doesn't take a leaf from trump's book, but in fact concedes the election ton, the opposition coalition, which is so disparate as we just heard from d. like kind of really stay together and govern this very polarized, potentially fragmented country as well right now. as d, like mentioned, they are united by one common goal, right? oust, president, add one. but the certainly concerns that this fragile alliance of 6 potty might just implode at a certain point. there has been certainly leading up to them announcing their joined candidate. mr. calisto over. there has been fight for one representative of

the party. the leader of the party met at the auction. i was about to leave the table. so this was a major challenge, especially if you look at what they are willing to do, nothing less than fixing a broken economy. and turning the system around, returning to parliamentary democracy, re restore the independence of institution. this is a huge task, a huge challenge, and it's not going to be easy for chemical clips dot low to, to run the country to go for. and that's for sure, very quickly do like what would be the top for and policies prior or priorities? i asked earlier, why the world should care? what would he do differently from our to one in present, he will turn his face to the, to the west. he's going to reach out to the you and to you go international institutions to may tell you one, etc. and really, i mean that, that's will be the biggest change. he already said that's um, they're going to back, they're going to pursue, you know, membership. i think the most important change will be that he will, it will be,

he will be open to communication and dialogue. things will be differently. i think it's really important that the west east. that's the importance of this. john, the stakes are very high. we ask in our title, outer ones moment of truth, but in many ways this is the moment of truth for democracy itself. what happens if everyone stays in power? fail to if you will be more to critique, i guess, and more getting more away from europe. and more close to be put in the hands. oh, i don't think that it will take so much time. the do not be able to run the country anymore. we because i mean we had spoken about of 50 percent of the people against him. it won't be so easy, but this will be kind of thoughtless, fortuitous feature. thank you very much, and i just want to give you

a chance to end on a more positive note. you told us to you are cautiously helpful. yeah, i mean, this view is behind julia is going to view i used to have from my home. so this decision of the people that determine my future as well. would you go home if you look starting with the next day. thank you very much. thanks to all of you for being with us. and thanks to our viewers for turning and check out our website . tell us what you think about the show, the

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