the light is, is on its way to bring you more conservation. how do we make savings, greener? how can we protect habits? with all our waves? we can make a difference by choosing smartness solutions over stain set in our ways. global ideas, our mental series, including 3000 on my guess this week on conflicts own was one of the most prominent members of russia's well connected power, elite, former kremlin advisor and economist, sergey gloria was head of a top economic university and was being re elected to the supervisory board of square box rushes largest lender when he suddenly fled to france 10 years ago saying he fear for his safety. i'm another. i'm another brave person,

so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh these people are now in jail. and they will remain in jail as long as we can ease in the country now as a professor of economics and provost, etc, on po his work, illuminates health thor, terry, and resumes like food and survive. how does he assess fruitless grip on power? and how much longer can put in fund his for military set backs and sections target grey of welcome to conflicts own. thank you for inviting me. the fighting continues as the invasion of ukraine is now in its 2nd year. how long can put and hold on and continue to fund this war. so this is a question uh which depends a manufacturer of some manual perspective. so we don't know. so he's already facing major financial constraints once uh the oil assumptions were inside use in december

. they were late, but it's better to have it late than never. he is now finding it difficult to finance his work, but he still has a lot of resources including the resources, the accumulated shooting $20.00 to $22.00. when the west has actually frozen the resorts of that also central been but continued to bind russian oil and gas the us given put in more money. and yet we see that in the summer months boot camps has difficulty to find funds to buying. you're buying the technology to produce weapons to produce activity sales. so we see that, for example, the front line doesn't see the move in the last half of the year. and that's also an impact of economic sanctions. become an essential limit, put into the ability to kill you pregnant. so then tell us because up, put in a said to be using the countries reserves to cover the gap in the budget. and you

mentioned that there was that a big chunk of that. some $300000000000.00 i'll already frozen by sanctions. how long do you think the money runs out the money that he does have access to? and so once again, it's not clear because it's a little difficult on the data or no quasi find that we don't know. for example, how is healthy is the pumpkin system. so you, for there is a lot of caching defined, consistency can bottle from rest of the bags and continue to finance the war. it is also not clear which cost he buys. so the military technology through 3rd countries like turkey, india, china, because it's done. and it's so many of these data we don't know, but we see that every additional 1000000000 he gets, he spends on uh, buying the weapons. i think we can solve this. and so in this particular case, i would say the water will continue as long as quick m as in paul. but in things

that deal with this war, the number of few premium soldiers killed the number of few cleaning and sven skills the number of the premium, the seat has destroyed. this depends on how much mind you would give him. but we seal, let me do that in the summer months. the density of training in the front line has been much lower. and we see that just so just in general themselves and putting himself started talking about the acuity hunger. they have a com good for to go with the shelves. they don't have enough shells to kill ukrainians, and that's already good. we also see the intensity of both using rockets to undermine ukrainians. ability to provide electricity has diminished. and if that sounds, the sensor switch we're inside use in december for oil in, in february for an oil product has been quite effect. when we look at the overall picture of the economy though, um you know, the sanctions they were expected to to lead to a macro economic instability. and you have spoken before about this report

a decline in g d p that was smaller than expected. and i'm just wondering if you're looking at the overall situation, if you've been personally impressed with how well the russian central bank has handled the fall out of sanctions as well. in truth, when people saw the introduction of unprecedented functions in the end of february, actually on the 3rd day of the war against central bank. uh many experts thought that the russel full of the way of them are really swelling rules have a major monthly comic disaster. now this one shows we're on presidents and so they create the, the, on the person on the at least it gets picked stations by pressure making them a team, as you mentioned, is much more competent than uh, central bank or some finance ministries in other sanctions. companies, so rather than central bank manage things, nation manage the capital uh, capital flow, and in fact uh and it said to be voided,

the macroeconomic collapse that said, i should see that the russian calling to me is on the recession. yeah. in spite of pretty high oil price, which is usually pretty good for us from the company, in spite of site boot price that we observed last year, especially when we went into the session. and if you look at the quality of life, if you look at the live in standards, if you look at consumer expenditures, these numbers that are minus 10 percent, this is not 3 go in, some people will say, well, the restaurants don't notice that. well, you, um a fashion to it explains how unhappy they are to show on tape you there because it's also very different as a present. and i would like to get a little bit more into um, a little bit later about about what russians think about what's happening. but when we do look at the rushing central bank and you've just acknowledged it so that they are key and helping the economy, whether the sanctions are the people who run it,

therefore complicit in the invasion of ukraine in the horrific war crimes that we have seen committed their as well. um, i'm not, i'm not a judge and i myself would. uh, if i were there, i would leave my job right away because indeed, every additional dollar, every additional dollars that you save products from much, you save it to give it to fulton, took you more to get pregnant and business of course immortal. but of course, these people managed to convince themselves that they saved russian population from popularity from piper installation. and so you can always look into them, you know, and explain to yourself why you're still there by that score. so these people who continue providing the resources for pollutants more machine, they talk to him, they don't mind the long term future refresher and then they come only terms that

they see russian res seem this year. but they of course, destroyed russian economic, political, social, democratic future in the long run. and in that sense, uh, it's become more meekly. that's also best policy is just in the long run. that's a bit policy in human there right now in 2022 and 20 percent of the city, the voice market, economic collapse, but these help who tend to continue just fine process future. do you think that they can leave? and that's a different question. i think some of them can leave a but we've seen that many russian business people, for example, committed suicide on the very suspicious circumstances. some fell out the window so we don't know which is or to him is very brutal with him. she has killed the people who would be 3 came. would you ask you people who have always been opposing them? the vision himself so which won't forget the murder, ofa bodies himself in 2015 mission for get the attempt to assist in nation or for

the scene of only $20.00 to $20.00 in the right. now we are in the me, the full for the, uh, did you say the process to the city in the, in quote, so quote, the quote against plugin or is that which is that a dream. i took you twice. so you put into the same price to kim its amy, its, of course it is going to be very brutal towards people who with them can see there is a straight there. so i would not charge these people. but if i were to them, i would, i would try to run the way as soon as possible. and this is something i actually would do in 2050. here are how the russians are, are framing the situation for a minister alive for off saying the west plan to isolate russia has been a fiasco. he said, the russia is strengthening good neighborly relations with the international majority. and i'd like to ask you if there is some truths there because you have china's leader, just standing by the side of pretend on

a state visit recently. many countries in the global south, including in africa where russia is a major arms export or have refused to condemn the invasion of ukraine to this is going to act um, if you look at the pool with the united nation. so you'll see that a lot of companies upstate, but those will support the josh. i have very, very few and we talk about c 83 and you cut out of the 35 countries which expressed the support for russia. now on the china. this is extremely important, and i'm really happy the china doesn't provide the with ups thrush if china decided to prove that we mail out monday through last so that we know this aren't. but if china wanted to follow this ideal for friendship without limits, china would have provided weapons without claimants and cash without commitments and sanctions will not work. now we see the process for us to buy munitions in grip funds from, you know, in north korea, which is a much lower quality of attorneys weapons entries technology. so we see that there

are some limits to wrestle chains, friendship in little after a student being left, you know, you could see the inside of your changes on bus of their, to the you. who said that friendship without the limits is a wreck in china is not support him, a violation of to the total. so, but in team, think of it to a few. great. so the nuances here? yes, this is the right. china is not the risks. a line on this more in this more is continued to by russian oil, but still we soon see like managed to the level of said that the rest of the world, majority of the world support structure of business. so then let me then ask you then, from the economic point of view, because russia has been pivoting, as we've been highlighting, hooton's says that he is looking for markets belong to friendly countries where he can re orient energy supplies. how far do you think that those partnerships can go to prop putting on the russian economy?

the key question is, if other countries observe the will price, can you mentioned all the price capt imposed by the west? this is the most important issue. now, the risk that we want to keep production oil in the market, so we are happy, the india buys it actually on wind because the traditional sweets, the global market, you will have a crisis and the will market price will go up. so the goal of the match, the goal or low price cap piece that india buys and actually buys it at the low price. so if we can, doesn't have enough money to continue financing this. what's coming back to our 1st question? if we're price campus, it's 60, put him, doesn't have enough money to balance his budget and to continue the border with the site intensity, you flew across campus a little work and i hope with will happen this year from 625-545-5250 russell have less and less money as long as the rest of the world. india in particular, pays less for russian on. and that's the critical question. and sol, pharmacy,

and we see that india buys more or less than one, but the rest of the budget is in major texas. so it looks like these, how to approach does work. how bad is the economy have to get for pollutants position to look shaky? and so it's already safety in the sense that doesn't have enough weapons to uh, to occupied bustle for a year for a year. now eventually this war is not about going on with this war is about the battle that you have pointed out a dip, for example, in consumer spending last year. how much do you think households are feeling that pinch and do you think that that can translate into real grass roots resistance for the kremlin? we don't know because we are talking about when the collective collective deception then the we cannot continue like this will result in the most for with this and the police will join to protest. this is something which is very hard to predict. who

is very worried about this. he pays more and more to the right police. it doesn't sound right police to you credit, right. he looks for soldiers and mom, the cv, the nations he doesn't use of what's called national guard for, for the more because he needs national guard to be not potential progressive. now if you think about this, if you're in german or u. k, and you have minus 10 percent change in your bullet just like you would have in most products. industries. russia is a little bit different because if you process, even though she's getting beaten off the truck in simpler jail for 10 years, and in case of looking at what kind of motors other they mention, the month of the speed is actually 25 years in gen 4 to speaking ultimately against the work. so it's a very depressive state is natasha of trying to plan to smoke. national 2013 is a very different country. we know fucking the policy about level of depression

we've not seen. seems so. so we thought i would like to ask you a little bit more about the decision that you made to leave the country back in 2013. when you fled, you were widely quoted as saying the following, that you had no issues with bruton or marietta of despite being the target of investigators. do you regret saying not to i think it was not a well formulated. uh what, uh, what a man actually i do need to put him on his visits to give me the, the, give me a personal 3 month to protect me from russian law and order for them for laura know their system i, i had issues with, with an individual for create in my system. good person speaking up uh his mind would have to leave. would it be for us would be to happen in that is that is an issue i would have uh i would have uh with the rest of the government. the quote that you mentioned is i don't have issues with putting in miss vegas for nothing to fit in personally and protecting me from them on a part of this. that's uh,

that's what this quote was about. it was taking a lot of content put in was consolidating power. what do you think might have happened to you if you'd stayed as well? i've seen the various signals and uh, at some point at some point actually the people who are coming up. well, sometimes clinton would send me a signal to nothing can threaten me. sometimes the signal would be, i can be arrested. and sometimes people would say that sees view source or contact and this is my support for already seen them on. and you know what happens to people who support. uh, i'll explain that by making himself so i, i know that i'm another brave person so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh like i would say nobody makes himself aware of it came back. well i tell ya, ya sure would you believe last year? like would you mind kind of more is out who came back. these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail as long as fortune is in the country,

but they call that will not take long. dimitri pass golf pollutants spokesperson confirmed that russia had tightened the restrictions on for and travel for some who work in sensitive areas such as as what you were doing when you were living in russia. there are reports of demanding the surrender of travel documents from some prominent figures and former officials. how much descent do you think that there is right now and how many of russians officials want to leave you think of? and i think that you'll have very wide spread descent. and then at the end, if you have 2 people in the office in their circles because this work is destroyed, everything they've done in their lives. imagine you're building the business, you know, building the company for 30 years. now it's gone. imagine you have a time of year within put into the policy. and the top of this code here is to be actually to get the warrant all for international criminal court. so you're a one to person, so all these people that exceed me,

i'm happy and just to be something a couple of weeks ago. we've had the city born in over conversation between 2 people who publicly support, we can button this conversation between them while musical pregnancy in one energy and then the business for some of they are using words i would never work would never use for criticizing. putting everybody's on pickup or 70 buddies on package, but you right, i started to speak about this a long time ago more than 10 years ago in order to get them years ago the last few months when they cross the border. i would have a special procedure to interact with you written extensively about who in style of leadership more than 20 years ago, put and came to berlin and gave a very famous speech in german before the board to stop where he said the cold war is over do you think that that was just a charade back then? do you think that he always had a master plan bent on empire or as his aims changed over time?

well, i think it's very hard to, it's very hard to guess. now a we know that he's always been cut out. he's also ramsey's entourage and he's also old. was it on? he's on the rush, is it my symbol? so the moment see, and i have them to come in to start the building. he is going to call us the black sea palace. so we know that he started all this schemes right away. so he is not in detail in detail. a built in p, i'm part of builder season more of a palace built by. and this a different different thing, but over time he sold it in order to guard his palaces, and he is about 20 palaces, right? he needs to create the narrative, which has become this narrative will compatibility and go pick a 2nd soviet empire. and if you repeat this narrative for 10 years, you eventually start to believe it yourself. and i think mostly because it believes that are set like himself. but he started off with the besides the of the leave and

literally so i deal with my palaces, but the come on me girl with is so strong that everybody was happy with mike that option in my centralization of power. but eventually when the government girls disappeared, and this was of this, that it was, he thought i knew the new america. and so can explain me actually set the reference . you know, you will have no income, gross, but you're going to be part of the implant. and then of course, closing, leave the major role. he was very isolated, you didn't 2 years of cold with. he talked to just a few people who reinforce his brother, imperial, and that are to find too much them that i could. and i think by now he believes that believes that came. so you, you've also written about when food and cut came to power in 2000. you said that he worked to preserve democratic appearances. and that when he presumed to the presidency in 2012 his playbook, it changed it more closely resembled ruled by intimidation rule by fear. was that inevitable? what did a change?

so what has changed is in the 1st 10 years, he presided over unprecedented economic growth. so russian economy pretty much double the, the 1st year source 10 years, so which ends in power. and so he created the social contract where he was popular because he deliberate on income gross wage, gross gross of consumption, and everybody was happy. and then since he was corrupt and he didn't want to have checks and balances, he didn't want them to come to the market. i didn't get them to billeted, eventually come across, disappear. and if you just look at the numbers of the girls, we have a major, a decline of gdp in 2009 during the world economic problem crisis. and then the economy sensitive cover to pretty crisis levels. and then it stopped growing because economy was that even by the states crony capitalism put into france component of the quote, the called economy. and so she needs it the new america, and that was the principal change. so in that sense, it was inevitable, but it was also a choice might put your monthly for notified cut option not to become transparent

and will government. and of course, adaptive eventually resulted in this choice, which he may, i'm extremely, become on to western and step by step increase the level of depression. you've said that, that putting built the regime in a way that without him the system will not function. and that you think eventually it will collapse. how long computing last and what happens thereafter if he falls a this is actually to the system is built on personality of looking at food jumps. he wants to send a message to his until the us because in the circle that they will not be able to function without him, they will q each other. they will destroy each on to you, which is a guess which means and put them is in one of those are some in seasonal can then when he's gone, the system will have to change from will change initially they will tonight, dakota, you made a long themselves but then deep, eventually they will see the mom of them has put you on studies and none of them

has junior support from the public. don't forget that we can have sort of base of support because he has presided over the economic prosperity of 1st 10 years in power. and so in order to get this popular support, either they will install something like not good in these evil altima depression. and they've done a lot of work because it actually is not, not studies and much more sophisticated and interested in life than the gauge of society. or they will need to come to me, prosthetic inputs, that they will negotiate with the best in the degree duty my assumption. so we will see some of these like in you that is throwing up with them is gone. now good point him dice himself, or they will kill him all they will remove him from power. that's a very difficult question, which is very hard to predict. but the foot and lose of the word and you create for example, you can put him if we can move this guy man. this will drastically reduce his chances to stain power because he bet everything to have from this war. so it's

very hard to predict, right, and the can i get to the seems changed in the unpredictable way? so still this is a system built on food. and once he's gone the system, ok, what about reparations and justice? the icy c says ukraine is a crime scene that encompasses a complex and broad range of alleged international crimes. do you think that we will see, put and brought to justice? i think fulton will do everything to can to avoid that. and yet we've seen, for example, that slope of them, the loss of each was brought to the take. so things happen. yep. i think old russian civil society and the position that a united in understanding in the video piece with you great ease, return to the board. there's also 1991. so the best, all the 33 ross is occupied in 2014 in 2022 in 2023. so do background me a, give back east ukraine. bailey. patients in the sand working in those to the

international tribunal, either i see or other international reviewing those set up for the war crimes of this war. there is no disagreement on this. i'll explain that my lease has to be done. and, and let's our, uh, announcing that this is his view, this as his vision of peace with the brain. the same was done by the impression that people are coming to which i am a founding member investment actions committee, which i'm also funding. and how can society process and deal with the horrors committed and ukraine? do you have any hope that change will happen any time soon? i it's, it's not going to be easy. you talk to me from germany. germany has gone through this process of time. 1945. it's not been easy. it's not been easy. it was not the media. it was not all this how to do it in the right way. but now during when he's a free democratic, this will come to some people will give them say to peaceful. but i think germany comes down in other countries have done it,

and russia is not genetically inferior. whoever says natasha always has to stay on the credit. is that also follow up in the research? i told him that we will be able to rebuild the country and create the 3 democratic pro european rush. so okay, great. we have to leave it there. thank you. so much for your time. thank you for joining us on conflicts on thank you. so the

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