i didn't think so many women would send me the photos. she's their motivator. all of us hire a little must be the and she won't give up. watch the assignment for public took my brother hostage a few days ago, but the trying to sign in the scene on the job. they won't be silent. starts june, 3rd on the w. my guess this week on conflicts own was one of the most prominent members of russia's well connected power, elite, former kremlin advisor and economist, sergey gloria was head of a top economic university and was being re elected to the supervisory board of spare box rushes, largest lender when he suddenly fled to france 10 years ago saying he fear for his safety. i'm another. i'm another brave person,

so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail as long as we can ease in the country now as a professor of economics and provost, etc, on po his work illuminates how thor, terry, and regimes like proven survive, how does he assess hooton's grip on power, and how much longer can put in fund his for mid military setbacks and sections there. okay, great. yeah, and welcome to conflicts down. thank you. set of for inviting me. the fighting continues as the invasion of ukraine is now, and it's the 2nd year how long can put and hold on and continue to fund this war. so this question uh, which depends a manufacturer of some manual perspective. so we don't know. so he's already facing major financial constraints once uh the oil assumptions were inside use in december,

they were late, but it's better to have it late than never. he is now finding it difficult to finance his war, but he still has a lot of resources including the resources, the accumulated shooting $20.00 to $22.00. when the west has actually frozen. the resorts of that also central been but continue to bind russian oil and gas that's given putting more money. and yet we see that in the summer months, boot teams has difficulty to find funds to buying. you're buying the technology to produce weapons to produce activity sales. so we see that, for example, the front line doesn't see the move in the last half of the year. and that's also an impact of economic functions. economic central's limits, contents ability to q u credits. so then tell us because up, put in a said to be using the countries reserves to cover the gap in the budget. and you mentioned that there was that a big chunk of that,

some $300000000000.00. i'll already frozen by sanctions. how long do you think the money runs out the money that he does have access to to so once again, it's not clear because it's a little difficult on data, are now classified that we don't know. for example, how is healthy is the pumpkin system. so you, for there is a lot of caching the banking systems you can borrow from us and banks and continue to finance the war. it is also not clear which cost he buys. so the military technology through 3rd countries like turkey, india, china, because it's done in so many of these data we don't know, but we see that every additional 1000000000 he gets, he spends on uh, buying the weapons. i think we can salters and so in this particular case, i would say the water will continue as long as quick m as in paul. but in things to deal with this war,

the number of few premium soldiers killed the number of few cleaning and sven skills, the number of the premium, the seat has destroyed. this depends on how much money would give him. but we see, oh, let me get that in the summer months. the intensity of training in the front line has been much lower and we see that. so just in general themselves and putting himself started talking about the acuity hunger. they have a com good for to go with the shelves. they don't have enough shells to kill ukrainians, and that's all really good. we also see the intensity of both using rockets to undermine ukrainians. ability to provide electricity has diminished. and if that sounds, the essential switch we're inside use in december for oil in, in february for an oil product has been quite effect. when we look at the overall picture of the economy though, um you know, the sanctions they were expected to to lead to a macro economic instability. and you have spoken before about this report

a decline and g d p that was smaller than expected. and i'm just wondering if you're looking at the overall situation, if you've been personally impressed with how well the russian central bank has handled the fall out of sanctions as well. in due to when people saw the introduction of unprecedented functions in the end of february, actually on the 3rd day of the war against our so central bank. uh many experts thought that the russel full of the way of them are really swelling. we will have a major monthly comic disaster. now this one shows we're on presidents and so they create the, the, on the person on the at least it gets picked stations by pressure making them a team, as you mentioned, is much more competent than uh, central bank or some finance ministries in other sanctions. companies, so rest of the central bank manage things, nation, manage the capital uh, capital flow, and in fact uh and it said to be voided,

the macroeconomic collapse that said, i should see that the russian calling to me is on the recession and the women to the session and if you look at the quality of life, if you look at the lumen standards, if you look at consumer expenditures, these numbers that are minus 10 percent, this is not 30. and some people will say, well, the restaurants don't notice that. well, you um a fashion to explain someone happy they are to show on tape you there because it's also a very different seclusion now. and i would like to get a little bit more into um, a little bit later about about what russians think about what's happening. but when we do look at the russian central bank and you've just acknowledged it so that they are key in helping the economy, whether the sanctions are the people who run it, therefore complicit in the invasion of ukraine into her risk war crimes that we have seen committed their as well. um, i'm not, i'm not

a judge and i myself would. uh, if i were there, i would leave my job right away because indeed, every additional dollar, every additional $1000000000.00 that you see for us from much you save it to give it to put him to kill him or to get pregnant. and business of course immoral. but of course, these people managed to convince themselves that they say russian population from popularity from type or installation. and so you can always look into them, you know, and explain to yourself why you're still there. but of course, so these people who continue providing the resources for pollutants were machine, they actually didn't mind the long term future refresher and then the commitment to us that they see russian res seem this year. but they of course, destroyed russian economic, political, social, democratic future in the long run. and in that sense,

it's become more likely that's also best policy is just in the long run. that's a bit policy in human there right now in 2022 in 2023. the voice marketing coming, mcculloch's. but these helps who tend to continue? just fine. process future. do you think that they can leave that's a different question. i think some of them can leave a, but we've seen that many russian business people, for example, committed suicide on the very suspicious circumstances. some fell out the window so we don't know, which is the resume is very brutal. who just has killed the people who would be 3 came with him, has school people who have always been opposing them. the decision himself so which don't forget the murder ofa bodies himself in 2015, which in for get the attempt to assess the nation or quite seen of only 20 to 20 in right. now we are in the middle of, uh, the, uh,

did you say the process to the city and in quote, so quote unquote, against plugging the cameras that which is that the same author. i took you twice, so you put into the same price to kill. it's in the midst, of course is going to be very brutal towards people home, which i'm guessing there is a straight there. so i would not charge these people. but if i were to them, i would, i would try to run the way as soon as possible. and this is something i actually did in 2050. here are how the russians are, are framing the situation for a minister alive for off saying the west plan to isolate russia has been a fiasco. he said that russia is strengthening good neighborly relations with the international majority. and i'd like to ask you if there is some truth there, because you have china's leader just standing by the side of pretend on a state visit recently. many countries in the global south, including in africa where russia is a major arms exporter, have refused to condemn the invasion of ukraine to this is going to act um,

if you look at the pool with the united nation. so you'll see that a lot of companies upstate, but those who support the tasks have very, very few. and we talk about c $83.00 and you cut out your literally 5 countries which expressed the support for russia. now on the china, this is extremely important. and i'm really happy the china doesn't provide with the rush, if china decided to prove that we mail up the money to address that. we know this aren't, but if china wanted to follow this ideal for friendship without limits, china would have provided weapons without claimants and cash without commitments and sanctions will not work. now we see the process for us to buy munitions in grip funds from, you know, in north korea, which is a much lower for the given chinese weapons entries technology. so we see that there are some limits to russian charities, friendship and model. but after a student being left, you know, you could see the inside of your changes on bus of their,

to the you who said that friendship without the limits is a wreck in china is not support him, a violation of duty to deal. so, but in team typically do a few. great. so the nuances here? yes, this is the right. china is north and west. a line on this more in this more is continued to by russian oil. but still, we soon see, like most of the level of said that the rest of the world majority of the world supports this as well. so then let me then ask you then, from the economic point of view, because russia has been pivoting, as we've been highlighting pollutant says that he is looking for markets belong to friendly countries where he can re orient energy supplies. how far do you think that those partnerships can go to prob putting on the russian economy? the key question is, if other companies, uh, observe the price, can you mentioned all the price capt imposed by the west?

this is the most important issue. now, the risk that we want to keep production oil in the market, so we are happy if india buys it, asking on why? because the professional tweets the global market, you will have a crisis and the market price will go up. so the goal of the match, the goal or low price cap piece that india buys and actually buys it at the low price. so if we can, doesn't have enough money to continue financing this. what's coming back to our 1st question? if we're price campus, it's 60 point him doesn't have enough money to balance his budget and to continue the border with the site intensity, you flew across campus a little work and i hope with will happen this year from 625-545-5250 russell have less and less money as long as the rest of the world. india in particular, pays less for russian on. and that's the critical question and so far receive. and we see that india buys more or less than one, but the rest of the budget is in major texas. so it looks like these,

how to approach does work. how bad is the economy have to get for pollutants position to look shaky or so it's already shaking in the sense that with him doesn't have enough weapons to uh, to occupied bustle for a year for a year. now eventually this war is not about the economy. this war is about the better you have pointed out a debt. for example, in consumer spending last year, how much do you think households are feeling about pinch and do you think that that can translate into real grass roots resistance for the kremlin? we don't know because we are talking about when the collective collective deception then the we cannot continue like this will result in the most for with this and the police will join to protests. this is something which is very hard to predict. who is very worried about this. he pays more and more to the right police. he doesn't, sam, i police to you credit, right. he looks for soldiers and mom,

the tv and the russians. he doesn't use of what's called national guard for, for the war because he needs national guard to be not potential progressive. now if you think about this, if you're in german or u. k, and you have minus 10 percent change in your bullet, your flights, you would have enormous products. industries, rationally is a little bit different because if you process, even though she's getting beaten off the truck in simpler jail for 10 years. and in case of looking at what kind of motors other they mention, the month of the speed is actually 25 years in gen 4 to speaking ultimately against the war. so it's a very depressing state is natasha of trying to print the smoke national. 2013 is a very different country. we know talking about about level of depression we've not seen seems so. so we thought i would like to ask you a little bit more about the decision that you made to leave the country back in 2013. when you fled, you were widely quoted as saying the following, that you had no issues with pretend or marietta of despite being the target of

investigators. do you regret saying not? and i think it was not a well formulated uh what uh, what day ma'am? actually, i do need to put him on his visit to give me the, to give me a personal 3 month to protect me from russian law in order for them to learn or their system. i had issues with, with an individual for creating the system of the person speaking up, but she's mindful tasked to leave would be for us would be so happened in that is that is an issue. i would have thought i would have uh with the rest of the government, but the quote that you mentioned is i don't have issues with putting individually for nothing to fit in personally and protecting me from them on a part of this. that's uh, that's what this quote was about. it was taking a lot of content put in was consolidating power. what do you think might have happened to you if you had stayed?

well, i've seen the various signals and uh, at some point in some point actually people who are coming up well, sometimes when would send me a signal, the nothing can threaten me. sometimes the signal would be i can be arrested. and sometimes people would say that sees the source of contact and this is my support for explain the money and you know what happens to people who support. uh, i'll explain them by me. think he himself. so i, i know that i'm another brave person. so i prefer to leave, we know that people who not laugh like i would say nobody makes himself worse. if it came back, likely i asked him, would you be less likely to have kind of more is that who came back? these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail as long as we can ease him to come. but i hope that it will not take long. dimitri pest golf, put in spokesperson, confirms that russia had tightened the restrictions on for and travel for some who work in sensitive areas such as as what you were doing when you were living in

russia. there are reports of demanding the surrender of travel documents from some prominent figures and former officials. how much descent do you think that there is right now and how many of russians officials want to leave you think i and i think that you'll have very wide spread descent. and then at the end, if you have 2 people in the office in their circles, because this work is destroyed, everything they've done in their lives. imagine you're building the business, you know, building the company for 30 years. now it's gone. imagine you have a type of year within put into the policy, and the top of this code here is to be actually to get the warrant all for international criminal court. so you're a one to person. so all these people that exceed me, i'm happy and just to be something a couple of weeks ago. we've had the city born, you will have a conversation between 2 people who are publicly support. we can button this conversation between them while musical pregnancy in one energy and then the

business for some of they are using words i would never worked with member to use for criticizing. putting everybody's on paper. of course everybody's on separate but you right. i started to speak about this a long time ago more than 10 years ago in order to get them years ago the last few months when they cross the border. i would have a special procedure to anthony restaurant. we talked you written extensively about who in style of leadership more than 20 years ago, put and came to berlin and gave a very famous speech in german before the blended stock, where he said the cold war is over. do you think that that was just a charade back then? do you think that he always had a master plan bent on empire, or has his aims changed over time? well, i think it's very hard to, it's very hard to guess. now a we know that he's always been cut out and he's also ramsey's entourage, and he's also older than us. he's on the rush is

a my symbol. so the moments he and i have them to come in to start the buildings. he is going to call us the black sea palace. so we know that he started all these schemes right away. so he is not in detail in detail, a built in p, i'm power bill or keys tomorrow for a palace builder, right. and this a different different thing, but over time she saw that in order to guard his palaces and he is about 20 palaces, right? he needs to create the narrative, which has become this narrative for the entire building will become 2nd soviet empire. and if you repeat this narrative for 10 years, you eventually start to believe it yourself. and i think most would be the believes that your set like himself. but he started it all with the, the safety of the leave and literally. so i build my palace is about to come on and get all of this so strong that everybody was happy with my cut option in my central ization of power. but eventually when the government girls disappeared,

and this was of this, that it was, he thought i knew the new america and so can explain me actually said the residence, you know, you will have no income, gross, but you're going to be part of the implant. and then of course, closing to play the major role. he was very isolated. you didn't 2 years of cold with. he talked to just a few people who reinforce his brilliant deal and that are to find too much them that i could. and i think by now he believes it believes it's kim. so you, you've also written about when putting cut came to power in 2000. you said that he worked to preserve democratic appearances. and that when he resumed to the presidency in 2012 his playbook, it changed it more closely resembled ruled by intimidation rule by fear. was that inevitable? what did a change? and so what has changed is, in the 1st 10 years, if excited over unprecedented economic growth. so russian economy pretty much doubled in the 1st year,

1st 10 years of which ends in power. and so he created the social contract where he was popular because he deliberate on income gross wage, gross gross of consumption, and everybody was happy. and then since he was corrupt and he didn't want to have checks and balances, he didn't want to come democratic accountability. eventually come across, disappear, and if you just look at the numbers, look like the girls. we have a major, a decline of gdp in 2009 during the world economic problem crisis. and then the economy sensitive cover to pretty crisis levels, and then it stopped growing because economy was driven by the state crony capitalism, pollutants, france component, the quote, the whole economy. and so she needed a new metric, and that was the principal change. so in that sense, it was inevitable, but there's also a choice by putting multi for notified cut option not to become transparent and will girlfriend. and of course, adaptive eventually resulted in this choice, which he made a mix creamy, become onto western,

and step by step increase the level of depression. you've said that, that putting built the regime in a way that without him the system will not function. and that you think eventually it will collapse. how long compute last and what happens thereafter if he falls, it fits exactly to the system is built on personality of looking at him. he wants to send the message to keys until das, which is in a circle that they will not be able to function without him. they build q, which on there they will destroy each on a. you put in, does it? yes. which means and put them as a more of those are some and she's not count. and then when she is gone, the system will have to change from willie change. initially they will tonight, dakota, you may, they may have themselves, but then eventually they will see the number of them has put down studies and none of them has junior support from the public. don't forget that we can have sort of based of support because he has presided over to come on the 1st page of the 1st 10 years in power. and so in order to get this popular support,

either they will install something like not good in these evil altima the depression and they've done all this will work because it actually is not, not securities and much more sophisticated and industrial life. in the case of society or the new economy, prosthetic input that they will negotiate with the best in the degree to the most sanction. so we will see some of these, like a new bid is throwing up with them is gone. now we're putting dice himself or they will kill him all they will remove him from power. that's a very difficult question, which is very hard to predict, but they put in loses the water and you clean. for example, if you put him, if put a little this came in, this will drastically reduces the chance as to spain power because he bet everything to have on this one. so it's very hard to predict, right, and don't do what can i get to the seems changed in the unpredictable way? so still this is a system built on food and once he's gone, but system ok. what about reparations and justice?

the icy c says ukraine is a crime scene that encompasses a complex and broad range of alleged international crimes. do you think that we will see, put and brought to justice, and i think fulton will do everything to can to avoid that. and yet, but we've seen, for example, that slope of them, the loss of each was brought to the take. so things happen. yep. i think old russian civil society and the position that a united in understanding in the video piece with you great ease, return to the board. there's also 1991. so give back all the 33 process occupied you 2014. in 2022 in 2023. so do background me a, give back east ukraine. bailey. patients in the sand working in those to the international tribunal. either i see or other international reviewing those set up for the war crimes of this war. there is no disagreement on these, i'll explain them, our lease has to be done. and let's our, uh,

and now seeing that this is his view, this as his vision of peace with the brain. the same was done by the impression that people are coming to which i found in member investment actions committee, or we can also fund them. how can society process and deal with the horrors committed and ukraine? do you have any hope that change will happen any time soon? i it's, it's not going to be easy. you talk to me from germany. germany has gone through this process of time. 1945. it's not been easy. it's not been easy. it was not the media, it was not all this count to do it in the right way. but now during when he's a free democratic, this will come to some people with the website to peaceful. but i think the gentleman who comes down in other countries have done it, and russia is not genetically inferior. whoever says natasha always has to stay on the credit. is that also follow up in the research? i told him that we will be able to rebuild the country and create the for the

democratic pro european so. okay, great. we have to leave it there. thank you so much for your time. thank you for joining us on conflicts on thank you. so the

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