of economics imposes that c as close as work illuminates how authoritarian regimes light photon survive. how does he assess this grip on power conflict? on what secrets why behind being discovered new adventures in 360 degrees and explore fascinating world heritage sites dw world heritage 360 yeah, no the my guess this week on conflicts own was one of the most prominent members of russia's well connected power, elite former kremlin advisor and economist, sergey gloria was head of a top economic university and was being re elected to the supervisory board of spare box rushes largest lender when he suddenly fled to france 10 years ago saying

he fear for his safety. i am another. i'm another brave person, so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail as long as we can ease in the country now as a professor of economics and provost, etc, on po his work illuminates how thor, terry, and regimes like food survive, how does he assess fruitless grip on power and how much longer can put in fund his for mid military setbacks and sections there. okay, great. yeah, and welcome to complex down. thank you. set of for inviting me. the fighting continues as the invasion of ukraine is now in its 2nd year. how long can put and hold on and continue to fund this war. so this is the question uh, which depends on manufactured of some manual perspective. so we don't know. so 14 is already facing major financial constraints. once the oil functions were inside

use in december, they were late, but it's better to have it late than never. he is now finding it difficult to finance his war, but he still has a lot of resources including the resources he accumulated during $2222.00 when the west has actually frozen the resorts of that also central been but continued to bind russian oil and gas the us given putting more money and yet we see that in the recent months, who teams has difficulty to find funds to buying, you're buying the technology to produce weapons to produce activity sales. so we see that, for example, the front line doesn't see the move in the last half of the year. and that's also an impact of economic sanctions become an extensive lead me contents ability to keep you pregnant. so then tell us because up, put in a said to be using the countries reserves to cover the gap in the budget. and,

and you mentioned that there was that a big chunk of that, some $300000000000.00 i'll already frozen by sanctions. how long do you think the money runs out the money that he does have access to? and so once again, it's not clear because it's a little difficult on the data or no cost to find the content. we don't know, for example, how healthy is the pumpkin system. so you, for there is a lot of cash in demand, consistency can bottle from rest of the bags and continue to finance the war. it is also not clear that which cost he buys to the military technology through 3rd countries like dirt to india, china because it's done. and it's so many of these data we don't know. but we see that every additional 1000000000 he gets, he spends on um, buying the weapons. i think we can solve this. and so in this particular case, i would say the water will continue as long as quick m,

as in paul. but in things to deal with this war, the number of few premium soldiers killed the number of few cleaning and sven skill the number of few premium, the seat has destroyed. this depends on how much mind you would give him. but we seal, let me get that in there is some months the density of sink in the front line has been much lower and we see the deals. so just in general themselves and putting himself started talking about the q liddy hunger. they have a tom good for to go with the shelves. they don't have enough shells to kill ukrainians, and that's already good. we also see the intensity of both uh, using rockets to undermine ukrainians. ability to provide electricity has diminished. and if that sounds, the sanctions which were inside use in december for oil and in february for oil products has been quite effect. when we look at the overall picture of the economy though, um you know, the sanctions they were expected to to lead to

a macro economic instability. and you have spoken before about this reported decline and g d p that was smaller than expected. and i'm just wondering if you're looking at the overall situation, if you've been personally impressed with how well the russian central bank has handled the fall out of sanctions as well. in due to when people saw the introduction of unprecedented sanctions in the end of february, actually on the 3rd day of the war against russian central. thank many experts thought that the russell full of the we'll see them or when the swelling rules have a major monthly commitment disaster. now this one shows we're on presidents and so they create the, the on the, on the at least it gets dictations by pressure making them a team, as you mentioned, is much more competent than uh, central bankers and finance ministries in other sanctions, companies. so rest of the central bank manage things, place and manage the capital,

capital flow, and in fact, uh and effects to the void of the market. and then a collapse that said, i should see that the rest of the economy is on the recession. and in spite of pretty high oil price, which is usually pretty good for us from the company, in spite of time we'll price that we absorb last year, especially when we went into the session. and if you look at the quality of life, if you look at the lumen standards, if you look at consumer expenditures, these numbers that are minus 10 percent, this is not 30. and some people will say, well, the restaurants don't notice that. well, you um a fashion to explain someone happy they are to show on tape you there because it's also a very depressing presume now. and i would like to get a little bit more into um, a little bit later about about what russians think about what's happening. but when we do look at the russian central bank and you've just acknowledged it so that they

are key and helping the economy, whether the sanctions or the people who run it, therefore complicit in the invasion of ukraine into her risk war crimes that we have seen committed their as well. um, i'm not, i'm not a judge and i myself would. uh if i were there, i would go with my job right away because indeed, emily additional dollar every additional beating them dollars that you see. what are some budget, you save it to give it to fortune, to keep more of your payments and business of course a model. but of course, these people manage to convince themselves that they save russian population from popularity from type or installation. and so you can always look into them, you know, and explain to yourself why you're still there by that score. so these people who continue providing the resources for pollutants more machine,

they actually undermine the long term future refresher and then they come only terms, but they see russian res seem this year. but they of course, destroyed russian become only political social, democratic future in the long run. and in that sense, uh, it's become more, me, please. that's also best policy is just in the long run. that's a bit bull listed in here in there right now in 2022 into into print to the city, the void macroeconomic deluxe. but these helps who tend to continue just find process future. do you think that they can leave? and that's a different question. i think some of them can leave a, but we've seen that many russian business people, for example, committed suicide on the very suspicious circumstances. some fell out the window so we don't know which is that a shame is very brutal, who just has killed that people could be 3. tim who tim has killed people who have always been opposing them. decision himself so which don't forget the murder of

uh, bodies himself in 2015, which in, for get to the attempted assassination of public seen of only 20 to 20 in right. now we are in the middle of, uh, the, uh, did you start the process to the city and in quote, so quote, the quote, i guess what he meant going was that one which is the same author. i took you twice, so you put into the same price to kill. it's in the midst of course, right? it is going to be very brutal towards people who, who tim can see that it says 3, but it's so i would not judge these people. but if i were to them, i would, i would try to run the way as soon as possible. and this is something i actually would do in 2050. here are how the russians are, are framing the situation for minister laughter off saying the west plan to isolate russia has been a fiasco. he said that russia is strengthening good neighborly relations with the international majority. and i'd like to ask you if there is some truth there because you have china's leader just standing by the side of pretend on

a state visit recently. many countries in the global south, including in africa where russia is a major arms export or have refused to condemn the invasion of ukraine to this is going to act um, if you look at the pool with the united nation. so you'll see that a lot of companies upstate, but those will support the josh i have very, very few and we talk about c $83.00 and you cut out the literally 5 countries which expressed the support for russia. now on the china, this is extremely important, and i'm really happy the china doesn't provide the with ups thrush if china decided to prove that we mail up the money to address that. we know this aren't, but if china wanted to follow this ideal for friendship without limits, china would have provided weapons without claimants and cash without commitments and sanctions will not work. now we see the process for us to bind munitions in grip funds from, you know, in north korea, which is

a much lower quality of the chain, these weapons entries technology. so we see that there are some limits to russian charities, friendship and model. but after a student being left, you know, you could see the inside of your changes on bus of their, to the you. who said that friendship without the limits is a red x in china is not support him, a violation of to the total. so, but in teen tech, look you up, you great. so the nuances here? yes, this is the right. china is north and west. a line on this more in this more is continued to by russian oil. but still we soon see like news the level of said that the rest of the world majority of the world support structure of business. so then let me then ask you then, from the economic point of view, because russia has been pivoting, as we've been highlighting pollutant says that he is looking for markets belong to friendly countries where he can re orient energy supplies. how far do you think that those partnerships can go to prop putting on the russian economy?

the key question is, if positive companies observe the will price, can you mentioned all the price capt imposed by the west? this is the most important issue. now, with that, we want to keep production oil in the market. so we are happy, india buys it, asking on why? because the professional tweets the global market, you will have a crisis and the market price will go up. so the goal of the match, the goal or low price cap piece that india buys and actually buys it at the low price. so if we can, doesn't have enough money to continue financing this. what's coming back to our 1st question? if we price campus, it's 60, put him, doesn't have enough money to balance his budget and to continue the border with the site intensity, you flew across campus a little work and i hope with will happen this year from 625-545-5250 russell have less and less money as long as the rest of the world. india in particular,

pays less for russian on. and that's the critical question and so far received. and we see that india buys more or less than one, but the rest of the budget is in major texas. so it looks like these, how to approach does work. how bad is the economy have to get for pollutants position to look shaky? it so it's already safety in the sense that doesn't have enough weapons to uh, to occupied bustle for a year for a year. now eventually this war is not about going on with this war is about the battle that you have pointed out, a dip, for example, and consumer spending last year. how much do you think households are feeling that pinch and do you think that that can translate into real grass roots resistance for the kremlin? we don't know because we are talking about when the collective collective deception then the we cannot continue like this will result in the most for with this and the

police will join to protest. this is something which is very hard to predict. who is very worried about this. he pays more than more to the right police. he doesn't, sam and i police to you credit, right? he looks for soldiers and mom, the cv, the nations he doesn't use of what schools, national guard for, for the more because he needs national guard to be not potential progressive. now if you think about this, if you're in germany or u. k, and you have minus 10 percent change in your bullet just like you would have in most products. industries. russia is a little bit different because if you process, even though she's getting beaten up, tortured in simpler jail for 10 years. and in case of looking at what kind of more as other they mention, the month of the speed is actually 25 years in gen 4 to speaking ultimately against the work. so it's a very depressive state is natasha of trying to plan to smoke national 2013 is a very different country. we know fucking the policy about level of depression

we've not seen. seems so. so we thought i would like to ask you a little bit more about the decision that you made to leave the country back in 2013. when you fled, you were widely quoted as saying the following, that you had no issues with bruton or marietta of despite being the target of investigators. do you regret saying not to i think it was not a well formulated a what uh, what a man actually i do need to put him on his visit to give me the, to give me a personal 3 month to protect me from russian law and order for them, for the law, i know their system, i had issues with, with an individual for create in the system. the person speaking up uh his mind would have to leave. would it be for us would be to happen in that is that is an issue. i would have uh, i would have uh with the rest of the government, the quote that you mentioned, these items have issues with.