crane will receive spice of this on to the point we ask f 16. so you claim. why do the motto to the point in 60 minutes on d. w. what secrets? why behind being discovered new adventures and 360 degrees and explore fascinating world heritage sites p w world heritage 360. now the my guess this week on conflicts own was one of the most prominent members of russia's well connected power, elite, former kremlin advisor and economist, sergey gloria was head of a tough economic university and was being re elected to the supervisory board of fairbanks rushes largest lender, when he suddenly fled to france 10 years ago, saying he fear for his safety. i am another another brave person,

so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail as long as we can ease into kind of now as a professor of economics and provost, etc. on po his work illuminates how thor, terry, and regimes like proven survive. how does he assess, put his grip on power and how much longer can put in fund his for mid military setbacks and sections there. okay, great. yeah. and welcome to complex down. thank you for inviting me. the fighting continues as the invasion of ukraine is now in its 2nd year. how long can put and hold on and continue to fund this war. ok. so this is a question uh which depends a manufacturer of some manual perspective. so we don't know, so he's already facing major financial constraints once uh the oil assumptions were inside use in december, they were late,

but it's better to have it late than never. he is now finding it difficult to finance his war, but he still has a lot of resources including the resources, getting the latest shooting 20 to 22. when the west has actually frozen the resorts of that also central been but continue to bind russian oil and gas. the us given putting more money. and yet we see that in the summer months boot camps has difficulty to find funds to buying. you're buying the technology to produce weapons to produce activity sales. so we see that, for example, the front line doesn't see the move in the last half of the year. and that's also an impact of economic sanctions. become an essential limit put into ability to q u credits. so then tell us because up, put in a said to be using the countries reserves to cover the gap in the budget. and you

mentioned that there was that a big chunk of that, some $300000000000.00. i'll already frozen by sections. how long do you think the money runs out the money that he does have access to? and so once again, it's not clear because it's a little difficult on the data or no cost to find the content. we don't know, for example, how healthy is the pumpkin system. so you, for there is a lot of cash in demand, consistency can bottle from rest of the bags and continue to finance the war. it is also not clear that which cost he buys to the military technology through 3rd countries like dirt to india, china because it's done. and it's so many of these data we don't know. but we see that every additional 1000000000 he gets, he spends on um, buying the weapons. i think we can solve this. and so in this particular case, i would say the water will continue as long as quick m, as in paul. but in things to deal with this war,

the number of few premium soldiers killed the number of few cleaning and sven skill the number of few premium, the seat has destroyed. this depends on how much mind you would give him. but we seal, let me get that in there is some months the density of sink in the front line has been much lower and we see the deals. so just in general themselves and putting himself started talking about the productivity hunger. they have a com good for to go with the shelves. they don't have enough shells to kill ukrainians, and that's all really good. we also see the intensity of both uh, using rockets to undermine ukrainians. ability to provide electricity has diminished. and if that sounds, the sanctions which were inside use in december for oil in, in february for oil products has been quite effect. when we look at the overall picture of the economy though, um you know, the sanctions they were expected to to lead to a macro economic instability. and you have spoken before about this reported

decline and g d p that was smaller than expected. and i'm just wondering if you're looking at the overall situation, if you've been personally impressed with how well the russian central bank has handled the fall out of sanctions as well. in due to when people saw the introduction of unprecedented sanctions in the end of february, actually on the 3rd day of the war against russian central bank. uh many experts thought that the russel full of the way of you know, when the swelling rules have been major monthly comic disaster. now this one shows we're on president. so they created the on the, on the, at least tickets potations, but pressure making them a team, as you mentioned, is much more competent than uh, central bankers in finance ministries in other sanctions company. so rather than central bank manage things, nation manage the capital uh, capital flow, and in fact, uh and effects to the void did the most economical ups. that said,

i should see that the rest of the economy is on the recession. and in spite of pretty high oil price, which is usually pretty good for us from the company, in spite of time we'll price that we absorb last year freshman to go on and we went into the session. and if you look at the quality of life, if you look at the lumen standards, if you look at the consumer expenditures, these numbers that are minus 10 percent, this is not 30. and some people will say, well, the russians don't notice that. well, you, um, a fashion to explain how unhappy they are to show on tape you there because it's also a very depressive presume now. and i would like to get a little bit more into um, a little bit later about about what russians think about what's happening. but when we do look at the russian central bank and you've just acknowledged it so that they are key in helping the economy, whether the sanctions are the people who run it,

therefore complicit in the invasion of ukraine into her risk war crimes that we have seen committed their as well. um, i'm not, i'm not a judge and i myself would uh if i were there i would leave my job right away because indeed, every additional dollar, every additional $1000000000.00 that you save. production budget, you save it to give it to put him, took you more to get pregnant and business of course immortal. but of course, these people managed to convince themselves that they said russian population from popularity from piper installation. and so you can always look into them, you know, and explain to yourself why you're still there by that score. so these people who continue providing the resources for pollutants more machine, they actually undermine the long term future process. and then the commitment terms

that they see russian res, seem this year, but they of course destroyed russian economic, political, social, democratic future in the long run. and in that sense, uh, it's become more meekly. that's also best policy is just in the long run. that's a bit policy in human there right now in 2022 in 2023. the voice market, economic collapse. but these helps who tend to continue just fine process future. do you think that they can leave? and that's a different question. i think some of them can leave a but we've seen that many russian business people, for example, committed suicide on the very suspicious circumstances. some fell out the window so we don't know who judge him is. very group with him. she has killed the people who would be 3 came. would you ask you people who have always been opposing them? the decision himself so which won't forget the murder ofa buddies himself in 2015

mission for get the attempt to assist in nation or for the scene of only $20.00 to $20.00 in the right. now we are in the me, the full for the, uh, did you say the process to the city in the, in quote, so quote, the hold a guess plug in and tell me what is that which is that a dream author. i took you twice. so you've put into the shame, tries to kill it's in the midst. of course, it is going to be very brutal towards people who with them can see there is a straight there. so i would not charge these people. but if i were to them, i would, i would try to run the way as soon as possible. and this is something i actually would do in 2050. here are how the russians are, are framing the situation for minister laughter off saying the west plan to isolate russia has been a fiasco. he said that russia is strengthening good neighborly relations with the international majority. and i'd like to ask you if there is some truths there because you have china's leader, just standing by the side of pretend on

a state visit recently. many countries in the global south, including in africa where russia is a major arms export or have refused to condemn the invasion of ukraine to this is going to act um, if you look at the pool with the united nation. so you'll see that a lot of companies upstate, but those will support the josh i have very, very few and we talk about c $83.00 and you cut out the literally 5 countries which expressed the support for russia. now on the china, this is extremely important, and i'm really happy the china doesn't provide the with ups thrush if china decided to prove that we mail out monday through us so that we know this aren't. but if china wanted to follow this ideal for friendship without limits, china would have provided a weapons without claimants and cash without commitments and sanctions will not work. now we see the process for us to bind munitions in grip funds from, you know, in north korea, which is a much lower quality of a chain,

these weapons entries technology. so we see that there are some limits to wrestle chains, friendship and model. but after a student being left, you know, you could see the inside of your changes on bus of their, to the you who said that friendship without the limits is a wreck in china is not support him, a violation of to the total. so, but in teen tech, look you up, you great. so the nuances here? yes, this is tonight, china is north and west. a line on this more in this more is continued to by russian oil. but still, we shouldn't say like news the level of said that the rest of the world majority of the world support structure of business. so then let me then ask you then, from the economic point of view, because russia has been pivoting, as we've been highlighting foot and says that he is looking for markets belong to friendly countries where he can re orient energy supplies. how far do you think that those partnerships can go to prop putting on the russian economy?

the key question is, if other companies observe the will price, can you mentioned on the price capt imposed by the west? this is the most important issue. now, the risk that we want to keep production oil in the market, so we are happy, india buys it, asking on why? because the professional tweets the global market, you will have a crisis and the market price will go up. so the goal of the match, the goal or low price cap piece that india buys and actually buys it at the low price. so if we can, doesn't have enough money to continue financing this. what's coming back to our 1st question? if we're price campus, it's 60, put him, doesn't have enough money to balance his budget and to continue the border with the site intensity, you flew across campus a little work and i hope with will happen this year from 625-545-5250 russell have less and less money as long as the rest of the world. india in particular, pays less for russian on. and that's the critical question and so far receive. and

we see that india buys more or less than one, but the rest of the budget is in major texas. so it looks like these, how to approach does work. how bad is the economy have to get for pollutants position to look shaky. and so it's already safety in the sense that doesn't have enough weapons to uh, to occupied bustle for probably yeah, for a year. now eventually this war is not about the corner with this for is about the battle that you have pointed out a dip. for example, in consumer spending last year. how much do you think households are feeling that pinch and do you think that that can translate into real grass roots resistance for the kremlin? we don't know because we are talking about when the collective collective deception then the we cannot continue like this will result in the most for with this and the police will join to protest. this is something which is very hard to predict. who

is very worried about this. he pays more than more to the right police. he doesn't, sam and i police to you credit, right? he looks for soldiers and mom, the cv, the nations he doesn't use of what schools, national guard for, for the more because he needs national guard to be not potential progressive. now if you think about this, if you're in german or u. k, and you have minus 10 percent change in your bullet just like you would have in most products industries. russia is a little bit different because if you process even actually getting beaten off the truck in simpler jail for 10 years. and in case of looking at what kind of motors other they mention, the month of the speed is actually 25 years in gen 4 to speaking ultimately against the work. so it's a very depressive state is natasha of trying to plan to smoke national 2013 is a very different country. we know fucking the policy about level of depression

we've not seen. seems so. so we thought i would like to ask you a little bit more about the decision that you made to leave the country back in 2013. when you fled, you were widely quoted as saying the following, that you had no issues with bruton or marietta of despite being the target of investigators. do you regret saying not to i think it was not a well formulated a what uh, what a man actually i do need to put him on his visit to give me the, the, give me a personal 3 month to protect me from russian law and order for them, for laura know their system i, i had issues with, with an individual for create in the system. the person speaking up uh his mind would have to leave. would it be for us would be to happen in that is that is an issue. i would have, uh, i would have uh, with the rest of the government. the quote that you mentioned is i don't have issues with putting in miss vegas for nothing to fit in personally and protecting

me from there on a part of this. that's uh, that's what this quote was about. that was taking a lot of content put in was consolidating power. what do you think might have happened to you if you'd stayed as well, i've seen the various signals and uh, at some point in some point actually people who would have come on. uh, well, sometimes when would send me a signal the nothing can threaten me. sometimes the signal would be i can be arrested, and sometimes people would say that sees view source or contact and this is my support for already seen them on. and you know what happens to people who support. uh, i'll explain them by me. think he himself. so i, i know that i'm another brave person, so i prefer to leave. we know that people who not laugh like i would say nobody thinks himself works. if it came back, likely i asked him, would you be less likely to have kind of more of the who came back? these people are now in jail and they will remain in jail as long as we can ease

him to cut it. but i hope that it will not take long. dimitri pest golf, put in spokesperson, confirms that russia had tightened the restrictions on foreign travel for some who work in sensitive areas such as, as what you were doing when you were living in russia. there are reports of demanding the surrender of travel documents from some prominent figures and former officials. how much descent do you think that there is right now and how many of russians officials want to leave you think i and i think you'll have very wide spread descent. and then at the end, if you have 2 people in the office in their circles, because this work is destroyed, everything they've done in their lives. imagine you're building the business, you know, building the company for 30 years. now it's gone. imagine you have a 10 year within put into the policy, and the top of this year is to be packed. you'll have to get the warrant all for international criminal court. so you're a one to person. so all these people that exceed me,

i'm happy and just to be something a couple of weeks ago. we've had the city born, you will have a conversation between 2 people who publicly support with them. but in this conversation between them, one musical pregnancy in one energy and then the business for some of they are using words i would never work would never use for criticizing. put an empty buddies on pickup or 70 buddies on package. but you right, i started to speak about this a long time ago more than 10 years ago in order to get them years ago, the last few months when they cross the border. i would have a special procedure to interact with you written extensively about who in style of leadership more than 20 years ago, put and came to berlin and gave a very famous speech in german before the blended stock, where he said the cold war is over. do you think that that was just a charade back then? do you think that he always had a master plan bent on empire, or has his aims changed over time?

well, i think it's very hard to, it's very hard to guess. now a we know that he's always been cut out and he's also ramsey's entourage. he's also older than us. he's on the rush is a my symbol. so the moment see, and i have them to come in to start the buildings. he is going to call us the black sea palace. so we know that he started all this schemes right away. so he is not in detail in detail. a built in p, i'm part of builder season more of a palace built by. and this a different different thing, but over time he sold us in order to guard his palaces. and he, us about 20 palaces, right? he needs to create the narrative, which has become this narrative with them prior buildings will become 2nd soviet empire. and if you to keep this narrative for 10 years, you eventually start to believe it yourself. and i think most would be the believes that your set like himself. but he started the adults with the,

the safety of the leave and literally. so i deal with my palaces about the come on me good all of this so strong that everybody was happy with mike that option in my central ization of power. but eventually when they come and girls disappear. and this was obvious that it was, he thought i knew the new america and so can explain me actually said the residence, you know, you will have no income, gross, but you're going to be part of the implant. and then of course, closing to play the major role. he was very isolated. you didn't 2 years of cold with. he talked to just a few people who reinforce his brilliant deal and that are to find too much them that i could. and i think by now he believes that believes that came. so you, you've also written about when putting cut came to power in 2000. you said that he worked to preserve democratic appearances. and that when he resumed to the presidency in 2012 his playbook, it changed it more closely resembled ruled by intimidation rule by fear. was that inevitable? what did a change?

and so what has changed is, in the 1st 10 years, if excited over unprecedented economic growth. so russian economy pretty much doubled in the 1st year, 1st 10 years of weekends in power. and so he created the social contract where he was popular because he deliberate on income gross wage, gross gross of consumption, and everybody was happy. and then since he was corrupt and he didn't want to have checks and balances, he didn't want to kind of democratic accountability, eventually come across, disappear. and if you just look at the numbers, look like the girls were kind of major a decline of gdp in 2009 during the world economic problem crisis. and then the economy sensitive cover to pretty crisis levels. and then it stopped growing because economy was driven by the state crony capitalism, pollutants, france component of the quote, the whole economy. and so she needs it the new metric, and that was the principal change. so in that sense, it was inevitable, but there's also a choice by putting multi, 4, notified cut option,

not to become transparent and will girlfriend. and of course, adaptive eventually resulted in this choice, which he made on this screen the become onto western and step by step increase the level of depression. you've said that, that putting built the regime and a way that without him the system will not function. and that you think eventually it will collapse. how long computing last and what happens thereafter if he falls, it fits exactly to the system is built on personality of looking at put him. he wants to send the message to his until the us, which is in the circle that they will not be able to function without him. they will q which on there they will destroy each on to you, which is a guess which means and put them is in one of those are some and she's not count. and then when she is gone, the system will have to change from will change initially they will tonight, dakota, you made it wrong themselves, but then deep. eventually they will see the number of them has put down studies and

none of them has genial support from the public. don't forget that we can have sort of based of support because he has presided over the economic prospect of the 1st 10 years in power. and so in order to get this popular support, either they will install something like not good in these even of altima the depression and they don't, it will work because it actually is not, not securities and much more sophisticated and interested in life. in the case of society, or they will need economy, prosthetic inputs, that they will negotiate with the best in the degree to the most sanction. so we will see some of the quite can you that is throwing up with them is gone. now good point him dice himself, or they will kill him all they will remove him from power. that's a very difficult question which is very hard to predict, but they've put an lose of the word and you create for example, you can put him if put a little this guy man. this will drastically reduce his chances to stain power because he better everything to have from this more. so it's very hard to predict,

right. and the more can i get to the seems change in the unpredictable way. so still, this is a system built on food and once he's gone the system, ok, what about reparations and justice? the icy c says ukraine is a crime scene that encompasses a complex and broad range of alleged international crimes. do you think that we will see, put and brought to justice? i think fulton will do everything to can to avoid that. and yet, but we've seen, for example, that slow, but then the last of which was brought to the hague. so things happen. yep. i think old russian civil society and the position that a united in understanding the video piece with the green ease return to the board. there's also 1991. so give back all the 30 process occupied in 2014 in 2022 in 2023. so do background me a, give back east ukraine. bailey. patients in the sand working in those to the

international tribunal. either i c, c or other international, reviewing those set up for the war crimes of this war. there is no disagreement on this. i like seen them, i least has read them and letter announcing that this is his view. this is his vision of peace with the brain. the same was done by the impression that we're coming to of which i found a member investment actions committee, or we can also fund them. how can society process and deal with the horrors committed and ukraine? do you have any hope that change will happen any time soon? i it's, it's not going to be easy. you talk to me from germany. germany has gone through this process of time. 1945. it's not been easy. it's not been easy. it was not the media, it was not all this how to do it in the right way. but now during when he's a free democratic, this will come to some people with the website to peaceful. but i think dominique has done it. other companies have done it,

and russia is not genetically inferior. whoever says natasha always has to stay on the credit. is that also follow up in the research echo that uh, we will be able to rebuild the country and create the for the democratic pro european. so okay, great, we have to leave it there. thank you so much for your time. thank you for joining us on conflicts on thank you. so the,

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a protest movement. i did not think so many women would send me the photos. she's their motivator. all of us higher our lives must be the and she won't give up to watch the assignment for public took my brother hostage a few days ago. but at the trying to sign in the scene or the job, they won't be silent. starts june 3rd on dw, the, this was the job you're dealing with, and these are the top stories across charles most finality, wagner group says it has started drawing from the ukraine and city of quote and handle with positions for the adoption military. wagner, leader, you have danny for goshen says his troops.