must be yelling this out. she's the face of a protest movement. i did not think so many women would send me the photos. she's their motivator. all of us higher our lives must be the and she won't give up to watch the assignment for public took my brother hostage a few days ago. but at the trying to sign in the scene on the job, they won't be silent. starts june 3rd on t w there is increasing confusion about the war and ukraine. what happens to the anticipated contra offensive board is keeps current strategy. and other recent drawing a tax on most co cross at the dollar value or pod offsets counter offense. or is key of trying to create the military destruction unsettled the russian public?

or is that something else behind it? in any case, the rest of the leadership is threatening retaliation and continuing to use drones and miss solves also against keith, where civilians are still dying. we look at the constantly shifting battlefield and ask all those drawn attacks on russia, pos of the ukrainian conference, the welcome to to the points. i'm please to introduce today's panel. let's go stuff. presto, military ex, but either you or p and council on foreign relations. are they say you support the head of the russia department of the sleepless a but foundation think fact on while ukrainian colleagues sent me a pause. got from door to bellas studio in brussels.

hello and welcome to all of you. go stuff. let me start with you. um. let's just look at the most recent developments that russia has increased and strong attacks in, in recent days, even during the day why? so i'm hoping i'm gonna use those available uh where you see from the wreckage is over these massages to the produce fairly recently. and so basically we saw as of all fi, it has to leave the factory rush. i had a, a slumping production because of sanctions because of interruptions supply chains. i bought uh these uh, these interruptions only hold temporarily. so the substitution programs to use chinese electronics instead of west and ones now smuggling programs to kind of buy these up components and special materials through 3rd countries and bras. plate enterprises avoid the 2 boys being function yes. to,

to avoid being sanctioned. and to, or at least in this part of, of russia's arms, industry of the production curve is again pointing up thoughts. so they have caused their have more munition to fire. and that's, that's what they use. except you current seems to be defend quite well against these attacks. they shoot down arrow believes cruise missile, apparently, but how much of that success is, is owed to, to west and weapon systems. actually most of it, because without it, we would see much more this, we would see much more casualties. we would see so much more destruction. just remember that the 1st of such a defense system, i think, got into ukraine in october last year. so what we, what were you seeing before that there were lots more there with thousands of people dying after each attack was much more dangerous now from the psychological

point of view as well. ukrainians feel that they are much more protected every time they say thank you to our defenders, but also thank you to the new defense systems. it is quite obvious that it had made a huge change in if we can call in the quality of life of ukrainians. but at least they don't have to fear in the immediate death. let's say, uh, they want only a drone attacks by russia and attacks on keith, but they're about also doing attacks by upfront on russian territory. what's behind that strategically, what do you think? it's a good question because they're quite silent for this reason. it's about what exactly was the aim and we have to see that there are different logics behind. and i think that tax that has to have happened in moscow, although it's not completely clear if it was if the drone crashed on purpose. if they were armed with explosives, it's a bit unclear in the russian propaganda, of course frames all of them as terrorist attacks. it's suits the narrative. but in

general, this is for me more apt, psychological parts of the discount, the offensive to show that the reach of a potential strike is quite expensive. and also you have to imagine most cars, not the board, a city, so they are flying over a quiet some area with other people living. and it's, and to be honest, most go in itself is defensible in defense. but the general idea that you know, it's not the uni latrell shooting and being, it's shooting and being shut up. that's important, although i would say that the results, the psychological, the political results of the most co attacks are most, it to be seen that the kremlin is deciding how to react properly. that's, i'm clear. and the people are getting nervous, the russians because they also don't know what the criminal will decide sought about the immediate danger of continuous attacks. it's the uncertainty of it and that's, that's helpful. this is a different story from the attacks in the border areas where there are ukrainian drones in that area. and so on to. this is actually an exemplary form of account to

offensive now and go stuff the, the kremlin toko, you mentioned just mentioned that the, the possible reaction of the credit it talked about the harvest possible, a retaliation to those that tax. what does that mean? basically nothing because they will continue the strikes as they would continue without those are there is no 2nd guard wonderland because of the guards. wonder all mean living in wonderland. straining with one the weapons. that wonderfully will change the cause of the war for, for voting. and the russian military already is quite stretched. of course that has to be restored. that defense has to work. so probably that there will be resolution cetera. but that's part of the college she was there, the russia has exhausted a lot of it's, it's military means it is, it is playing

a long war game now. and in that, it's also for russell's course, means that during the cause of the long walk, it will be hit a one or the other time. now, the longer this will, the higher of course, the death toll gets especially close them. all of the soldiers fighting this war, nobody knows the exact numbers. but according to us, intelligence estimates via crazy inside alone has suffered about 20000 debts. and far more than 100000 injured soldiers sofa. but we're all remains high. and a warning some view as may find the images in our next report. i'm sitting. so they was full most around the clock and save anyone they can severely injured soldiers transported from the front and off in disability hospitality keys. we try to save these lives fast, but sometimes we have to amputate. it's especially difficult on young people who

suffer from war trauma. ready ready the cell just just about managed to survive, but he lost his leg and he has to learn to live without his for all this power trooper was seriously injured on the very 2nd day of the russian invasion. now he wants to return to the front. i was afraid because the town where i spent my whole childhood was on fire and being destroyed. how long can the ukrainians soldiers hold down against the russians? who now number them how to bad those those images. um, i like say that that we just saw the pricing spirit are things too crazy and soldiers seen seems lawfully unbroken. but in the end, she, a number took the balance and pretends favorite. you think it's more the fact that

the rush has no on the strategic defense. they do need to actually advance and this is actually a shift as opposed to last year when the strategy was to subdue and actually concur and destroy ukraine. now, well, you see the russian forces are overstretched and exhausted, but the most, they need to regroup and hold the line and, and of good stuff. because i mentioned the whole idea that russia can injure ukraine for a very, very, very long time. that's the strategy. so the momentum is often cited is there, and the question is of the contract offensive with to put your brain into position to seize the momentum on the minimum is a very strange word to use. but of consist of different things at the moment it's unclear. so the longer the counter offensive is not convincing and visible way, and it's clear it's not the decision the scenario, but still the longer it isn't getting more comfortable for russia to just sit it out. so that's actually not about the numbers and the motivation by itself is also

but about the timing. and this leads back to supplies. i munition, west and support and so on. time is not working for ukraine at the moment to now the talking about the whole time is working a note for ukraine. how much more loss is, how much more suffering as we've just seen. can you find that ukraine has no choice and ukrainians have no choice and this is what everybody keeps repeating. we have to hang on. we have to hold on and survive and try to make the most out of it. people in the front line, people away from the front line, people in the occupied areas. they all have different problems now. but at the same time, they are old trying to carry on their old trying to survive and bring ukrainian victory closer. so of course they are living under enormous stress. they constantly

experience a cocktail of emotions, which is fear, which is joy when they may live, maybe one more day or one more months. so maybe their whole life because the miss, i'll hit a neighbor's house and not there's, you know, and then there's hope that this would end soon because there is another weapon system coming from the west, which can change the situation in the battlefield. and then there is another attack, and there's fear again, and stress stress stress because of the unknown. and because there's very limited input and even though as an ukrainian you send your money to help the army or to support civil initiatives. but there is very limited influence of a citizen can have on the situation. that good stuff. ukraine's military leadership said they were ready for the condo offensive. we've had that for a long time. we're waiting for this counter offensive. what's all the credible

science that we need to look out for that be contra offensive is going to happen while we're on the preparatory phase. so at the time still we, we still off the i think dean turns is a tax on come on in control post in ukraine sales or something to watch out for robin indication that the ground offensive might commence ra the sooner because these are taxed at the basically, the estimate that the local russian on forces groupings to react on these come on posts will be rebuilt in a couple of days, a weeks of. so if you want to use the moments whom you build with a storm shelter strikes and i'll be quicker. the other thing is, is that if i'm timelines a lot about this offensive is logistics to get the munition, but also to get it into ukraine to disperse it,

to prepared the cetera. logistic preparations all extensive because we're talking about a very large mos off of soldiers tanks, equipment that will be part of that offensive. and that's all very trivial on, on hands. but it's also very difficult for us to look into these preparations that goes ukraine's kept them a secret us can be about they build buying large to, to him on the timeline. so what do you think? what are the, what's the likelihood that we see the contra offensive process to start within the next 4 weeks? like here it seems to be very good. that's a sad this strikes in the south indicate that that for mental needs to be billed while the sooner and uh the. so of course with my question, how big would it be? will it be smaller offenses or will ukrainians achieve a breakthrough that enables them to exploit them in throughout the inter,

bigger games. that's, that verdict is still out there. of course they're all good chances for your train to have a major breakthrough bought in military. they're always chances there, you've never secure whether a band might work or not because it's, it's a very complicated affair center. let me just put this in question to you. i mean, you have your feel as into the country that is under attack the. what's the feeling inside of ukraine about this congress offensive? people are hoping that it would come and soon, and people are hoping that it would bring the victory close or victory, meaning liberating the occupied territories by russia and people. of course, they would like to believe that it's coming very soon. they are off to mistake because as i said, sometimes hope is the only thing they have. and sometimes their principals is the only thing they have. they don't want this bad piece as they say they don't want

just, you know, for this to stop, but to be frozen for, you know, as is uh in the state of scored possible writers. well, nobody knows what's going to happen really, but ukrainians, according to statistics and according to what people i know say they don't want this kind of scenario to happen. they really want to recover all the territory and they want russia out of the country because anything russian right now is extremely irritating and causing more every time it's more and more rage. this is very interesting that you mentioned this. so let me put this the, the is, is it likely that there will be a compromise, i mean, with just uh, the most ukrainians, one to 5 is through to the end, the russian solid as a country. let's truth to what does it mean to find it to the there is the language saying the moment the last russian soldier leaves the legal territory of ukraine. there is a military victory. but again,

let's see that most of aggression in violence was inflicted at the moment to ukraine in cities, rocket strikes and drones. this will not happen by the late a soldier just leaving your claim. it doesn't, so here with this. so this is for a 2nd, maybe your brain would have the play by that time. me, the fighter just, which includes it's waiting for your bringing. yeah. so the question is, this is one second is a military success. how does it translate into political change? there is a theory of change saying look, that you create an offense if it's successful means some kind of familiar to reading and humiliation for the russian side minutes recommendation could be imagined in terms of a collapse of the front line. so maybe there was a large number of people in circles, so something which ignites a disruptive moment inside the russian state apparatus. i'm very skeptical about this because i see a high capacity of the kremlin to manage any kind of technical, military defense. even if we would agree that this is a defeat,

this doesn't necessarily translate into political turmoil. this is the 2nd thing, the front thing is that in order to maintain ukrainian security outside of nature, you wouldn't need to much higher sustained level of supply. some good stuff instead of going mentioned, it's a bulky, munitions, but fuel it's about training. it's about a repair basis and so on over a continued period of time years. i'm not quite sure is a huge opinion where there. yeah, there is this catch 22 problem. everyone expects wonders from the ukraine and offensive when you get inside, in order to figure out a conversation about how we're going to do this for the next 10 years. and they can work inside of this. there might be a time for that political process, but this is what the expectation that they've already seen wonder is because let's, let's remember the talks about how you cream would fall in 3 day is, you know, and yeah it's, it's my favorite example. it was a wonder because as you say, it was, you know, a russian knew very well what they were doing and ukraine was standing there alone . no 4 and soldier would help

a ever under ukrainian territory. ukraine didn't have all these weapons. the thing is russia was an offense and now rushes on. the defense. yeah, so it takes a completely different momentum, an effort to change the situation. so the comparison is correct in terms that ukraine has, and you can know the train that people have performed. absolutely, amazingly beyond any expectations. but the thing is that even if this counter offensive fis extremely successful, it doesn't necessarily end the war at this very moment. that's true, it's more, but it might change it. and i think this is the most realistic that we can expect. let me pick this up a good stuff if there is a problem, is that of all i seen, wrist and strategy, we have this verse for it as long as it takes a loss. those ass leave off there is a huge delta between the rhetoric and the actual supply extreme gets. now of course everybody understands that there is no the come to offensive. and for a lot of european countries, there's a kind of a trial balloon. they hold for

a sacramento happened, they're off to like, yeah, this would be embarrassing for putting wouldn't that embarrassing if he'd make them negotiate? what if not, that the problem is, as we seen with this counsel, friends, if you knew we have the pulse, basically since last, last all to him about the supply of certain weapons system. let's remember the low part to debate. it takes months to bring them into your train, it takes months to prepare them for shipment, etc. now everybody is basically waiting for the account to offensive and will happen to over the summer. you train us time over the summer to make good and territory and then a multiple, then watch where is all preparation for the next shipment. very solid defense industrial strategies to relieve equipment that ukraine would need. and i've said if we can replace it in europe, it's not there. everybody is like sitting there saying watch what is going on in any autumn is oh my god, we should have, we should have, we should be losing time again. and then basically we have these opera, these falls as the go with the winter, et cetera. and moscow is fine with that,

as by now basically, putting has realized with a note when the war by the merits of his own glory is ami bought by the whole world that donald trump maybe if he returns in 2024 by political divisions in the west, he may be present at where the rectory in ukraine because of sort of western supply drying out. so he's playing for time and we are not on the cutting his confidence in the play for time buying what we're doing. and unfortunately it takes too long. it's true because if your opinion says, uh, let's create this asap be so act in support of the munition production. uh lets vote for it. let's have this 3 phase plan where we give you crane the i'm, you mentioned that we have been reimbursed the countries then we, we change our contracts, then we produce more. uh, even if it's done at the fastest, you know,

pays that the european union can go. it's still too slow for ukraine in there. of course you are right. and there i'm say with, you know, you very well what she was doing. so anything that's the you does or the community of 50 plus states does in order to militarily support ukraine shows great. anything shows great support, but still, unfortunately, it's an ukraine says that as well, they admitted it's not fast enough and it's simply not enough. they're happy about any kind of help they are expecting to get the fighter jets now, which were considered to boil, actually up some time ago for them to every to boil. so far has been negotiate. i was negotiated, but still anything in terms of looking at the suffering of you create his last lives of how fast it should actually the dynamics of the war. just anything right now that we're seeing is too slow, can i? um, it just points towards the the might might sound a bit heretical,

but let's bear with thoughts. so the average russians in the area is that uh now uh, getting attacked. uh, what's the mood that you thing and the more i mean, the areas at the board, the, on the russian sides have been witnessing as a war creeping into their actual cities for a long time. now it's not like now is there is a what a shut moment for a year last. yeah, well you almost for a year they have been strikes and struggle since comments just as incursions. so the war is the reality there. and there is a big difference between the population of the big cities, including most considers, but because they feel that they're very distant, both coming, ukrainian suffering, but also from the suffering of their own competitor. it's at the border. so for them now, the uncertainty is both about it's just they are, there was a lot of, um, there was a lot of anger about the local authorities about both a troops. and this is why the government in the military will need to react in this

works. so military, really speaking, reinforcing your border means that you're taking away forces which are useful, the aggression. this is a good strategy in terms of the day to day. most people don't really think about the politics of it. so they see kids have to be of that create a, some houses are attack. there was a need to go back into areas which have been quite a few to check on your houses and so on. the reality is there, and i think the less mature was that even if you think you're a political mazda, might you kind of put a war into a box in to say, this is a special military operation. and this is war, and this is peace. and i will be able to contain it, what russia is with this thing right now is that you can't hold the war on the leash, it takes that space and it goes and expands by itself. this is what's happening. let me pick this up. you kind of keep a wall on a lease, if we zoom out a bit and talk about the roof and, and what was happening there is neighboring, both russia and ukraine. and it's present

a little said recently that russian nuclear weapons and i was stationed in, in bella, rose is about to be taken serious. or what were your friends? does it matter? it makes no difference administered terms. i think it makes a lot of difference in political terms as a little crushing. ca sees that as a, as an insurance policy for his personal life. he wants to have a guarantee that russia will fight for him. and of course, if the russian nuclear weapons on the ground, the bellows is one incentive for, for, for, for these are we, we will not take chances in any form of unrest. we will have to keep the christian cutting place. that is actually a, a russian nuclear storage site just behind the border of better us or any new kill. and that bar nuclear sharing, so called india, sharing agreements between a better russian on forces and the russian. unfortunately before that because that in the context of the union state, uh, even according to prove old military doctrine and unrest,

documents that are fellows would be defended also by new care means instead of the very we are a combination of the 2 state entities which they've had for the kid for 5 years, the better than you have excuse for both parties to do basically whatever, whatever they want to do, whatever they lo, accountability and we perceive right now, the more it goes on, the more we perceive voters as just an extension of russian, you know, policies and politics are ukrainians, worried about the roost getting rolling into this? well of course the thing is the worried of ukrainians basically are worried. but the thing is there is nothing new that one can expect from lucas shang call. so it's, it's quite predictable. what's going to happen. uh, nobody is, is how is expecting that lucas englewood suddenly change his mind or say to poor to know, or, you know, drift towards europe. it's, it's all quite clear. lots more to discuss all the time is often unfortunately, that's it for this edition. to the point, i hope you enjoyed the discussion and drawing the conversation. if you happen to

watch us on youtube, leave your comments and thoughts down below. we'd love to hear the god offers from the me my panel here in the studio and the team, thanks for the

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