for exploiting the ocean floor. cutting edge technology is unlocking the potential of deep sea mining. but this time, a research team will study the possible risk 1st. in order to minimize them, we have an opportunity to to get it right before we even start environmental activists or skeptical. after a whole, there are billions to be made. our 2 parts documentary, deep sea greed, starts to think on d, w. the. there is increasing confusion about the war and ukraine. what happens to the anticipated contra offensive board is keeps current strategy. and other recent drone attacks on most co cross of dollar pod offsets counter offense. or is to of trying to create the military destruction unsettled the russian public?

or is that something else behind it? in any case, the russian leadership is threatening retaliation and continuing to use drones and miss solves also against keith, where civilians are still dying. we look at the constantly shifting battlefield and aust, all those joint attacks on russia part of the ukrainian country. if it's the welcome to to the points i'm place to introduce today's panels. let's go stuff. presto, military ex, but i the european council on foreign relations. i'd say you support the head of the rush of the apartment off the flip. it was a but foundation think fact on while ukrainian colleagues sent me a postcard from thoughts about this studio in brussels

and welcome to all of you go. so let me start with you. um, let's just look at the most recent developments. the rush has increased and strong attacks in, in recent days, even during the day why? so i'm helping of, i'm a nation is available where you see from the wreckage is over these me size to the produce fairly recently. and so basically me size of all fired as to leave the factory rush. i had a, a slumping production because of sanctions because of interruptions supply chains. i bought uh these uh, these interruptions only hold temporarily. so the substitution programs to use chinese electronics instead of west and ones dallas smuggling programs to kind of buy these supp components and special materials through 3rd countries in bras, played in surprises, avoid the 2 boys being function yes, to, to avoid being sanctioned. and to, or at least in this part of,

of russia's arms, industry of the production curve is again pointing upwards. so they have caused their have more munition to fire. and that's, that's what they use. except ukraine seems to be defend quite well against these attacks. they shoot down arrow believes cruise missiles, parents, but how much of that success is, is owed to, to west and weapon systems. actually, most of it, because without it, we would see much more this, we would see much more casualties. we would see so much more destruction. just remember that the 1st of such a defense system, i think, got into ukraine in october last year. so what we, what were you seeing before that there were lots more there with thousands of people dying after each attack was much more dangerous now from the psychological point of view as well. ukrainians feel that they are much more protected every time

they say thank you to our defenders, but also thank you to the new defense systems. it is quite obvious that it had made a huge change in the if we can call in the quality of life of ukrainians, but at least they don't have to fear immediate immediate death. i'd say that one only drone attacks by russia and attacks on keith, but they're about also doing attacks by a grant on russian territory. what's behind that strategically? what do you think? it's a good question because they're quite silent for obvious reasons about what exactly was the aim and we have to see that there are different logics behind. and i think that tax that has to have happened in moscow, although it's not completely clear if it was, the drone crashed on purpose. if they were armed with explosives, it's a bit unclear in the russian propaganda, of course frames all of them as terrorist attacks. it's suits the narrative,

but in general, this is for me more apt, psychological parts of this content offensive to show that the reach of a potential strike is quite expensive. and also you have to imagine most cuz not the boldest city. so they are flying over a quite some area with other people living. and it's, and to be honest, most go in itself is defensible in defense. but the general idea that, you know, it's not the uni latrell shooting and being, it's shooting and being shot at. that's important, although i would say that the results, the psychological, the political results of the most co attacks are most, it to be seen that the kremlin is deciding how to react properly. that's, i'm clear. and the people are getting nervous, the russians because they also don't know what the crab and will decide. so what about the immediate danger of continuous attacks? it's the uncertainty of it. and that's, that's helpful. this is a different story from the attacks in the border areas where there are ukrainian drawings and notes here and so on to. this is actually an exemplary form of account

to offensive. now, the ghost of the kremlin toko, you mentioned, just mentioned that the, the possible reaction of the credit it talked about the harvest possible retaliation to those attacks. what does that mean? basically nothing because they will continue their strikes as they would continue without those are there is no 2nd guard wonderland because of got the guards, one the army in living and one of the lands training with one of the weapons that's on the fully will change the cause of the war for, for voting. and the russian military already is quite stretched. of course that has to be restored. that defense has to work. so probably that there will be resolution cetera. but that's part of the college she, um, there, the russia has exposed the lot of it's, it's military means it is, it is playing a long war game now. and in that, it's also for russell's course,

means that during the close of the long walk, it will be hit a one or the other time. now, the longer this will, the higher, of course, the desk told, gets especially close them all the soldiers fighting this war. nobody knows the exact numbers. but according to us, intelligence estimates ukrainian side alone has suffered about 20000 deaths and far more than 100000 injured soldiers sofa. but while remains high and holding some view as may find the images in the next report upsetting, they was almost around the clock and save any one they can severely injured soldiers transported from the front and dropping disability hospital and keys. we tried to save these lives fast, but sometimes we have to amputate. it's especially difficult on young people who

suffer from war trauma. ready the soldier just about managed to survive, but he lost his leg and he has to learn to live without his for all this power trooper was seriously injured on the very 2nd day of the russian invasion. now he wants to return to the front. i was afraid because the town way i spent my whole childhood was on fire and being destroyed. how long can be ukrainian soldiers hold down against the russians who mount number them how to bad those those images. um, i like say that as we just saw the pricing spirit of these 2, craney and soldiers seed seems lawfully unbroken. but, but in the end, she and number took the balance and pretends failure. think it's more of the fact that the rush has known this to change of defense. they don't need to actually lead

sands. and this is actually a shift, as opposed to last year when the strategy was to subdue and actually conquer and destroy ukraine. now, while you see the russian forces are overstretched and exhausted, but the most, they need to regroup and hold the line. and, and of course, of course, i mentioned to the whole idea that russia can injure ukraine for a very, very, very long time. that's the strategy. so the momentum is often cited is there, and the question is of the contra offensive will put to ukraine into position to see if the momentum on the minimum is a very strange word to yours. but it consist of different things at the moment it's, i'm clear. so the longer the condo offensive is not convincing an invisible way, and it's clear, it's not the decision, the scenario, but still the longer it is getting more comfortable for russia to just sit it out. so that's actually not about the numbers and the motivation by itself. it's also

a bit about the timing and this leads back to supply. so munition, west and support and so on. time is not working for ukraine at the moment to now talk about the whole time is working a note for ukraine. how much more loss is, how much more suffering as we've just seen. can you cry and tag ukraine has no choice and ukrainians have no choice. and this is what everybody keeps repeating. we have to hang on. we have to hold on and survive, and try to make the most out of it. people in the front line, people away from the front line, people in the occupied areas. they all have different problems now. but at the same time, uh, they are old trying to carry on their old trying to survive and bring ukrainian victory closer. so of course they are living under enormous stress. they constantly

experienced a cox a lot of emotions which is fear, which is joy when they may live, maybe one more day or one more month. so maybe their whole life because the mist i'll hit a neighbor's house and not there's, you know, and then there's hope that this would end soon because there is another weapon system coming from the west, which can change the situation in the battlefield. and then there's another attack, and there's fear again, and stress stress stress because of the unknown. and because there's very limited influence, even though as a ukrainian you send your money to help the army or to support civil initiatives. but there's very limited influence of a citizen can have on the situation, that good stuff, you kinds of military leadership said the ready for the condo offensive. we've had that for a long time. we're waiting for this counter offensive. what's all the credible science that we need to look out for that be contra offensive is going to happen

while we're on the preparatory phase. so at the time still we, we still off. um, i think the intensive attacks on come on and control post in uterine sales or something to watch out for robin indication that the ground offensive mind comments for all the sooner. because these are taxed at the, basically the estimate that the local russian on forces groupings to react. and these come on post will be rebuilt in a couple of days or weeks of. so if you want to use the moments whom you build with a storm, shudder strikes out to be quicker. the other thing is, ones that have on timelines a lot about this offensive is logistics to get the munition, but also to get it into ukraine to disperse it,

to prepared the cetera. logistic preparations all extensive because we're talking about a very lot moss of will soldiers tanks, equipment that will be part of that offensive. and that's all very trivial and hands. but it's also very difficult for us to look into these preparations that goes ukraine's kept them a secret to us can be about. they billed by and large to, to him on the timeline. so what do you think? what are the, what's the likelihood that we see the counter offensive process to start within the next 4 weeks? like year it seems to be very good. that's a sad this strikes and this house indicate that the thoughtful mental needs to be billed while the sooner and uh the yeah, of course with my question, how big would it be? will it be smaller offenses or will ukrainians achieve a breakthrough that enables them to exploit funding throughout the entropy your

gains? that's that verdict is still out there. of course they're all good chances for your train to have a major breakthrough bought in military. they're always chances there, you've never secure whether a band might work or not because it's, it's a very complicated affair. so now let me just put this in question to you. i mean, you have your feel as into the country that is under attack there. what's the feeling inside of ukraine, about this contrast offensive? people are hoping that it would come in soon, and people are hoping that it would bring the victory closer victory, meaning liberating the occupied territories by russia and people. of course, they would like to believe that it's coming very soon. they are off to mistake because as i sense sometimes hope is the only thing they have. and sometimes their principles is the only thing they have. they don't want this bad piece as they say they don't want just, you know, for this to stop, but to be frozen for, you know,

as is uh in the state of school. if possible, right? is it? well, nobody knows what's going to happen really, but ukrainians according to statistics and according to what people i know say they don't want this kind of scenario to happen. they really want to recover all the territory and they want russia out of the country because anything russian right now is extremely irritating and causing more every time it's more and more rage. this is very interesting that you mentioned this. so let me put this to you. is, is it likely that there will be a compromise, i mean, with just uh, the most ukrainians, $1.00 to $5.00 is through to the end of the russian. so it is a country let's truth or what does it mean to find it through the, the rest the language saying the moment the last russian soldier leaves the legal territory of ukraine. there is a military victory. but again,

let's see that most of aggression and violence was inflicted at the moment to ukraine in cities are rockets, strikes and drones. this will not happen by the late a soldier just leaving your claim. it doesn't. so if you are this, so this is for a 2nd, maybe your brain would have the play by that time, me the that the fighter just, which isn't close, it's waiting for your bringing. yes. so the question is, this is one second, isn't a military success. how does it translate into political change? there was a theory of change saying look, that you're creating an offense. if it's successful, means some kind of a military humiliation for the russian side. community recommendation could be imagined in terms of a collapse of the front line. so maybe there is a large number of people in circles, so something which ignites a disruptive moment to inside the russian state apparatus. i'm very skeptical about this because i see high capacities of the kremlin to manage any kind of technical military defeat. even if we would agree that this is a defeat, this doesn't necessarily translate into political turmoil. this is the 2nd thing,

the front thing is that in order to maintain ukrainian security outside of nature, you wouldn't need to much higher sustained level of supply. some good stuff cuz i think i mentioned it's a bulky, munitions, but fuel it's about training, it's about repair basis and so on over a continued period of time years. i'm not quite sure isn't your opinion where very yet there is this catch 22 problem. everyone expects wonders from the ukraine and offensive when you get the inside, in order to trigger a conversation about how we're going to do this for the next 10 years. and thinking where inside of this, there might be a time for the political process, but this is what the expectation is. they've already seen wonder is because let's, let's remember that talks about how ukraine would fall in 3 days. you know, and yeah it's, it's my favorite example. it was a wonder because as you say, it was, you know, a rush. i knew very well what they were doing and ukraine was standing there alone . no 4 and soldier would help. 6 ever on the ukrainian territory ukraine did they

have all these weapons, the thing is rush, it was an offense and now rushes when the defend. yeah. so it takes a completely different momentum and effort to change the situation. so the comparison is correct in terms of ukraine. has, and you can notice when the people have performed absolutely amazingly beyond any expectations. but the thing is that even if this counter offensive fis extremely successful, it doesn't necessarily end the war at this very moment. and that's true, it's more, but it might change it. and i think this is the most realistic that we can expect. let me pick this up a good stuff if there is a problem, is that have already seen risk and strategy. we have this verse for it as long as it takes a loss. those ass leave off, there's a huge delta between the rhetoric and the actual supply you're treating gets now of course everybody understands that there is no the come to offensive. and for a lot of european countries, there's a kind of a trial balloon. they hold for a settlement to happen. they're off to like, yeah,

this would be embarrassing for putting wouldn't that embarrassing to feed, make them negotiate? what is not that the problem is, as we seen with this council finds, if you knew we have the pulse, basically since last, last all to him about the supply of certain weapons system. let's remember the low part to debate. it takes months to bring them into your train, it takes months to prepare them for shipment, etc. now everybody's basically waiting for the account to offensive and will happen to over the summer. you train us time over the summer to make good and territory and then a multiple then watch. where is our preparation for the next shipment, very solid defense industrial strategy to relieve equipment that ukraine would need . and i've said if we can replace it in europe, it's not there. everybody is like sitting there saying never watch what is going on in any autumn is oh my god, we should have, we should have, we should have. i'm really losing time again. and then basically we have these albright, these falls as the go with the winter, etc. i'm most coolest fine with that. as by now, basically,

putting has realized who will not win the war by the merits of his own glory as ami bought by the whole world that donald trump maybe if he returns in 2024 by political divisions in the west. he may be present at where the rectory in ukraine because of sort of western supply drying out. so he's playing for time and we are not on the cutting his confidence in the play for time buying what we're doing. and unfortunately, it takes too long it's true because if you're, if you're in union says, uh let's create this asap be. so act uh, in support of the munition production. uh, lets bold for it. let's have this 3 phase plan where we give you crane the. i'm you mission that we have been reimbursed the countries then we, we change our contracts, then we produce more. uh, even if it's done at the fastest, you know, pays that the european union can go. it's still too slow for ukraine in there. of

course you are right and there i am safe with, you know, you very well what she was doing. so anything that the you does or the community of 50 plus states does in order to militarily support ukraine, shows great. anything shows great support, but still, unfortunately, it's an ukraine says that as well, they admitted it's not fast enough and it's simply not enough. they are happy about any kind of help they are expecting to get the fighter jets now, which were considered to boil, actually, uh, some time ago for them to every to boil. so far has been negotiate with negotiated, but still anything in terms of looking at the suffering of you create his last lives of how fast it should actually die. the dynamics of the war. just anything right now that we're seeing is too slow, can i? um, it just points towards the the might might sound a bit heretical,

but let's bear with thoughts. so the average russians in the area is that uh now uh, getting attacked. uh, what's the move the thing, or the more i mean, the areas at the board, the, on the russian sides have been witnessing as a war creeping into their actual cities for a long time. now it's not like now is there is a what a ship moment for a year last. yeah. oh yeah, almost 4 year they have been strikes and struggle since comments just as incursions . so the war is the reality there. and there is a big difference between the population of the big cities, including most common sense it is, but because they feel that the very this, the both come ukrainian suffering but also from the suffering of their own competitor. it's at the border. so for them now, the uncertainty is both about it's just they are, there was a lot of, um, there was a lot of anger about the local authorities about board a troops. and this is why the government in the military will need to react in this

works. so military speaking, reinforcing your board a means that you're taking away force us, which of us for the aggression. this is a good strategy in terms of the day to day. most people don't really think about the politics of it. so they see kids have to be of that create that some houses are attack. there was a need to go back into areas which have been quite a few to check on your houses and so on. the reality is there, and i think the last machine is that even if you're out, think your political mazda might, you can put a war into a box in to say, this is a special military operation, and this is war. and this is peace and i will be able to contain it. what russia is with this thing right now is that you cannot hold a war on the leash, it takes that space and it goes and expands by itself. this is what's happening. let me pick this up, you kind of a, keep a boy on a lease. if we zoom out a bit and talk about the roof and, and what was happened, there is neighboring, both russia and ukraine, and it's president. lucas said recently that russ nuclear weapons and i'm stationed

in investors, is about to be taken serious. a difference? does it matter? it makes no difference administered terms. i think it makes a lot of difference in political terms as a little cushion. ca sees that as a, as an insurance policy for his personal life. he wants to have a guarantee that russia will fight for him. and of course, if the russian nuclear weapons on the ground, the bellows is one incentive for, for, for, for these a boo boo boo boo. not take chances in any form of unrest, we will have to keep location, couldn't place. that is actually a, a russian nuclear storage site just behind the board of better us or any new deal. and that bar nuclear sharing so called if you're sharing agreements between the battery, russian on forces and the rest. and unfortunately before that, because that in the context of the union state, uh, even according to pre will military doctrine and unrest, documents that are,

fellows would be defended also by new care means in state as a very we are a combination of the 2 state entities which they've had for the case, what time is the better than you have excuse for both parties to do basically whatever, whatever they want to do, whatever the accountability and we perceive right now, the more it goes on, the more we perceive voters as just an extension of russian, you know, policies and politics are ukrainians, worried about the roost getting thrown into this? well of course the occurring is the worried of ukrainians, basically are worried, but the thing is there is nothing new that one can expect from lucas shane calls. so it's, it's quite predictable. what's going to happen. nobody is, is to have, is expecting that lucas angle would suddenly change his mind, or say to point to know, or, you know, trip towards europe. it's, it's all quite clear. lots smaller to discuss. time is off. unfortunately, that's it for this edition to the point, i hope you enjoyed the discussion and drawing the conversation. if you happen to

watch us on youtube, leave your comments and thoughts down below. we'd love to hear the god offers from the me. my panel here in the studio and the team, thanks for the

conflict with jim sebastian, february almost 5 months of virtual stalemate on the battlefields of ukraine. and yet, europe and america to clear that key of to get to the find to aircraft alone range weapon systems was seen from roughly i guess the shop

michelle president, the coming so quick. so in 30 minutes long dw, still on fix. all we in fact, every day the world crashes are your texas to work for free part of our time. like because we can make the different w call, the world unpack pulse out your info is and all the inputs w stores. now on to evelyn charmaya. welcome to my pod cast, loved to matters by celebrities, influenza and experts to talk about all playing loved data and get today. nothing less the stuff,

all these things in more and the new season of the fuck. com. make sure to tune in wherever you get your thoughts costs, enjoying the conversation because you know, it's last matter the news that the to these food food can new listing before mary's news. we had a lot of the drop out of this for because the way they do nothing when it comes from home, that could've easily been us. any one of the,

the the, this is the w, there is coming to line from berlin with russia launching sustained air strikes. ukraine prepares its troops for a couch or a pensive, including training and urban warfare to take back. cities under russian occupation . also coming up us present joe biden, trips and falls during a great a.