the tech told me about sugars paralyze between your societies. computers that are governments that go crazy for your data. we explain how these technologies work. so that's how they can also watch it. now the ukraine is long awaited counter offensive has begun. and while its forces are still reporting their gains in meters, experts say the progress is credible as ukrainian forces pushed to take territory and russian occupied south and east. they're relying in part of western supplied weapons like these levered tanks. soldiers report liberating a series of villages,

but russian military bloggers say some of these are still being contested. rushes overall response could depend on a power struggle within its military leadership. as well as on the resolve, a few cranes allies, many of which are currently taking parts in nato's largest ever air exercise. we're asking ukraine's comforter expensive, so we'll put you in via the welcome to to the point. here are our guests. marina. hank a is director of how to use the center of international security and an author of a claim to works on security policy. feel free to yoga is an associate fellow at the german council on foreign relations center for order governance in eastern europe and russia. and it's a put or to welcome my colleague from dw slide image is the policy serves on our

russian language tests, and is a valued frequent guest on the program. and marina, if i may let me start with you, and nato secretary general is expressing what sounded like measured optimism. when asked about ukraine's counter offensive, he said it is gaining ground, he does see progress. what's your take? uh, would you agree as well? i think of that 1st and foremost we can say it has begun, but some folks expected. and d d like offensive. so, you know, like all the different rates of retreat now over, you know, like months on end would a storm into a russian fortified territory and take over, you know, like, kind of like big swats of land and one goal. and this was not at all what vc, vc actually much more operation, small operations, whether ukrainians or action testing the ground, they are testing where holes in the fortifications and also like what's the more

all like, where the strong troops, where the weaker troops, where can they actually gain some ground and make further progress. that's what i think we are seeing. i think the appropriate is very, very small. to me that's no surprise as well. you know, i am not a pessimist, but i don't think you know, give, you can speak of a major success or victory on your credit inside so far. so you're saying essentially a little bit of expectation management is, uh, is, is warranted. ukraine is attacking from multiple directions. that's part of the test perhaps that you've described. does it also indicate a sense of confidence on the part of ukrainian leadership. so the only territory that has strategic value, the question has captured in this entire war, is the southern eastern corridor and basically the land bridge to come. you and of course ukraine wants to recapture that piece of land. and exactly, we see that the operations going from 3 different directions and so far, however,

it, you know, i think it's really too early to get to any kind of conclusion and say, you know, like, as if any of both sides is stronger or, you know, like i'm having the better equipment me, and if this lead russia has been making heavy use of air power, while ukraine is still waiting for the combat aircraft, the f sixteens that it has long been asking for from it, semester and allies. how much of a disadvantage is ukraine of under because of that? yes, it is a disadvantage that ukraine does not have c's at power, but we should take into accounts that no one else asides has to so priority in the sense that is absolute the case and so ukrainians, brooke, capable to make the go operations even with out that dominating the space and we should also see what we can take already from the 1st time or so offensive. ukrainian high,

precise auto re system is working ukrainian successfully already halted. what is maybe more important than some villages at the moment? they hot, it's already. and when they shouldn't come on scientist, also a huge you and it's also russians. what is of cause not shown in moscow and nonsense buys us because of the ministry of defense. speaking of what's sad and not said in house covering there, it may be early days, but latin being put in says that he can already judge the counter offensive to be a failure. and he said, you cranes, tank and troop losses are quote, unquote, catastrophic whether or not that is true. what effect would you expect it to have? it's, is it really to say it, even though like a look through the political of all the concerns, often safe on the granules surgeon know a little bit about the smoke progress of the ground troops on the ground. but it's too little time gum stinks. does the gun and the other side that have create it,

kind of hype around this contract for and see for the future expectations on the side from the rest on public because it talks of the rest on delivery to video grants was 4 months. i think it's great that the big excavation in the, in the public and the ukraine, but then the rest of the public as well that we have kind of wonder weapons to deliver to the crime. and you can go all around the russians. features of the north happening. so we have to wait and see how there's things still develop on the ground. so are you saying that the food chain, with this declaration, that it's all a failure, is essentially doing counter height and will that have an effect in russia? he still has the support of most of the population. but there's no hype on the russian side. there's a greater or better or how does so it's very rarely stick both there it is to but very small expectations. so they have to different defend the lines. they're not on the dock this time, so you bring them to have to go in to take the grounds again again,

which is probably better as a freshman forces. but on the russian side, there is no huge hype around, in terms of to affect sufficient interest of this defensive campaign. i want to come back here to that a little bit later on, but i'd like to 1st take a look at what i hope we will see a shortly on the screens behind us. namely, the biggest industrial disaster that europe has seen for a number of years. the breach of ukraine's nova whole, the down. it is it, it is thought that russia was behind to this catechism. the logic of the action though, bill for it seems a little bit dubious because uh, you know, targeting civilians thats usual for russia. but the fact is that its own forces positions have been inundated by this flood. so would you expect none? the less that this is a, you know,

a russian action and will it help or hurt fresh overall? i think that on to probable versions, when we look at the aims of russia and what happens, i think it is. one is credible but russian trying to really to a fleet pods of the lower the pro region in order to push out the ukrainians was already on the island, spawns of people and a tech the left bank. and they really effectively affect it already. so they did many rates on the other side. so for the russians, as was the problems that they had also to care, not only about the ease of the above supple easier, but also about the lower people agent. and i think they wanted, if there is a, there is also ground to sink is that's a has the intention to do. so i'm saying a to block is that direction falls ukrainians. but not was that i mentioned i think is as things went as they did not expect, i think they want to damage something as they want to let to want to down. but

maybe not. the whole thing is, the 2nd version is also is the responsibility of the russians, because the russians mind the band wednesday, occupies the territory. the russians did not manage regularly and professionally is a water control of the of them. so it was, it, them was under pressure and if they may be, did some not very good things that could also let's to a full damage. also them. so the russian in both cases, even if that would not have been a clear intention to use it for military reasons. russia is responsible for that. what happens because they did not let other organizations and they did not professionally managed. let that, let me add something to this because i think a very important component of the dam is also that russia wants to break the will of the ukrainian people, right? so they have shown this over the, you know, since the war started, but in particular, during the winter, when they attacked the pol plans and really wanted to hurt the people. and i think here this was just another occasion to literally like send the message. and we,

you know, like do no longer respect to even the civilians eventually hurt. and you know, like that's why the flooded plains and also just the massive to mentoring catastrophe is part and parcel of the strategy to be worried about. let me start my may at the distance this strikes on the energy infrastructure is an important component of the source. so it's not on the involved, the power plants and the grain. dominic healthcare is not the thing, not the same pipeline as well. it was against the energy as a goal in this war. and would you that in there also assume that russia was behind this action and if so, what message is it trying to send with with that all the messages are it's all in for us. so every, every refund is okay for us. i not the look the refund or not yet. we don't know what happened yet, but it's like it's one and the other one piece of russians warfare,

conventional conventional different information. laura and then the war on. and there was infrastructure, so on every single piece of front arsic and striking with for they were they were better than their striking marina. certainly the wider effects of this breach of the day i'm look very concerning and not only for ukraine, the water level has gone down significantly in the whole the reservoir, which feeds very critical canals, both for ukrainian agriculture. and ukraine, of course, is the bread basket of the wheat supply here too much of the world. but also the nuclear power plant mentioned by feel free to accept provision. so, you know, very, very significant damage here for quite a long period of time into the future. it's an absolute disaster. it's an absolute humidity area and, but also, you know, just a strategic disaster. and what, you know, like a brief me the most aware i do know,

like i'm very critical off is also that, you know, like that is actually not enough presence now by international organizations, for example, by the united nations, to really call this out. because this is something you know, like that is for everything is legitimate and in war and loves apparently about here. really like to put this on at the decimal and say like, what russia is doing is not okay because it will effect as it just mentioned, every single region on this planet. again, in africa, again in the middle east, where you don't have the green supplies. but in those regions you have a lot of folks are still believe that nato is actually with united states as they are. krista and russia is the week of force and it was forced to launch those war. and so i think, you know, like this moment really needs to be used by responsible figures in the international community is really portrayed that russia is using, you know, like weapons that are just against every single possible moral clause out there. meanwhile, in russia, we are seeing a developing power struggle,

neither portez propaganda, nor dramatic displays of capture tank. so such as those being shown on russian tv belie the fact that russia has not had the success that expect it when it began its invasion as pressure bounce. the ongoing, in fighting between the defense ministry and the private military company. wagner has now come to ahead with the former, telling the latter, its volunteers must become contractors to the defense ministry, the military unit and its come on to all the funds to sign a contract with rushes defense ministry. this place is the ami have gone with them cut. they're both under the supervision of the russian army. the older also effects you have got any precautions. wagner group the messenger referrals and impulse and pitiful rushes. all me was last deployed in the password for the strategic lee and symbolic the impulse and city of buffalo works now precaution and refuses to sign contracts with the ministry of defense. he says that minister shaw who has so far,

been unable to lead his own troops. meanwhile, there's also speculation about whether the defense minister himself has full amounts of favor with boots and is the power struggle in the kremlin intensifying. and let me pass that question straight over to vladimir, is the power struggle intensifying and what are its larger consequences? in my impression, yes, we have a power struggle north inside the colonel, but between the russian army and the private group wagner, which is not part of the russian government. so it's kind of outside of the government structure and interested in anything to see how quick you have any pre goals and start with the built up to just political compound and the companion inside the group. i see is north on the, on the front icbc travel throughout. so in the recent weeks and the press conference and talked about the terms of both russian politics about domestic politics, about the big abroad of christians. not on the mean at the strategy in the ukraine

. and it's the kind of, i would say, a rising star over the last 4 digits on the social media because he is doing quite professional good. social media is using case media empire quite well. and he reminds me a little bit on donald trump because in the beginning of tom's political campaign, was the parts of the state government about like smart inc. and doesn't do that. seems seriously this time slipping in group rewards and drives now, but i could not. and i, i think if it's possible that she would start the political category, so that sounds like you're telling us. so the person threatened here is not the defense minister of that and by precaution, but perhaps putting himself from that too early to say. but there's, there's wildest stipulations gotten in the russian internet about the strategies of pretty goals and, and she has goals and the possible powers inside the freshman for the 6. what might support him because she would not start this kind of political assault on the, on the minister of defense and the political campaign inside of russia,

with all the very strong support from very high level circles in ross inside the present, 46 different. meanwhile, those who try to read the tea leaves from the kremlin are very interested in a photo that written this recently publicized that shows the russian president quite ostentatiously giving the cold shoulder to the defense minister. though the former, though they were formerly considered quite good friends, what are we to make of that if anything, so i can not so much make of that because i think it much more important is what is the consequence of that struggle. as a consequence of its struggle is that the problem between the organization of the military of, of the tax, also regular army on the one side, on the one hand. and so pre goes in company on the as of the, on the other hand, with a continuum. so what 14 try to do is he tried to balance something he gave the go

uh he gave his minister of defense with the soap ought to, is this a poor claim? so all the nation of private companies under the army, he gave him something to protect himself. but at the same time we see that the goshen is building up for the his media presence. so nothing is resolved on the ground. and that is important for put in because it's on the ground, so mismanagement on the combined weapon attack management. if that is continuing, that is a problem for putting in the end because that can let fall for gaps falls of ukrainian army which can be used. what's your take on all of this marina? so you know, like now from western perspective, i think they're too big takeaways on the one hand, i think that in fighting between the wagner groups and the regular military. but in one form or another negative impact what happens in ukraine. so this is not an asset, but it's actually a disadvantage for russia. but on the other hand, somebody like for gordon is not somebody who has pro western or, you know,

life wants to an end does more to the contrast. one couldn't interpret that. he's even more hard line than troy. go. and maybe even the current establishment of the military, and he will also pursue this very hostile anti western antenatal attitude. so even if there's a power struggle in, in russia that, you know, like maybe might even lead to, uh, you know, this is now a very interesting but to be collapse of to put emerging. that does not mean that then we have a version that is actually, you know, like much more friendly to, to nato's interest. like him, you're the widely quoted report from bloomberg says that rushes it leads no longer believe or many of the lead no longer believes that proteins or on ukraine is winnable. do you see signs that that is true? and again, what would that matter? what would it mean for put in, what would it mean for the outcome of the war or board with like a huge increase of elk grove consumption in the us and there is some weeks and months so it might be connected to this division. so there are some that it's on

the political reduction because i'll go with with that last last minute or 2 and stay the lot. so, but on the sort of side, and it's interesting, what's the shift for us today? so last week, all of us saw them on there are some books on me. so you might have thought that maybe it's time for a cease fire into it. okay? it may be, it could be another one that are for random in the area. so with the crime beach oh good by the by russian forces and the people who are leaving their the don't want to stay with the dresser. let them go free back to the crane. so it's a very new don'ts on the russian establishment. which of the parts of the russian system just went to reaching, but was very loyal to present, put them into what's very pro war all the time since the war began. and all of a sudden use use such such noise as on the political term center. what does that mean is put in this position i looking for it's not shaking,

but it's open in the part of the establishment. so some movement that would support . it's not on the surface, it's under sort of race and it's on the different science of this. but this, i think it's, it's so i think it's changing. meanwhile, the west has repeatedly promised to support ukraine as long as it takes nato is currently carrying out the largest air maneuver in its history. a clear signal to russia will put in, take note, and just send the 23 is the largest deployment exercise of forces in nato's history . almost all member nations of taking pos and the maneuver on the job and leadership. according to the abundance of a at around $10000.00 soldiers and $250.00 across all taking part. the usa is participating with a 100 across the participants, one to show that they can defend europe against error attacks. the allies are primarily concerned with the question of whether the us can deploy forces to your

quickly enough in an emergency. during the exercises the russian enclave of colleen and broad will be carefully floating around to avoid any provocation as the russian side, as will start practicing for the event of war and the politics e. x. the sizes of the russian fleets began in early june, up to 40 ships and boats, $25.00, a croft, and about $3500.00 soldiers all to be involved. the russian ministry said what signals do these exercises send out and i'll pass that question straight to you. feel free to what word messages this sending. i think it is an important message of the tyrants that nato tries to build up and updates is a capabilities for the defense and on. so we have to see that the at cross potential of nato is one of the most important parts of the message with what is

the us communicated to the kremlin in the autumn last year. winds i said, if you will use a means of mass distraction, you should know said we are capable and ready to show russian troops out was meant or was that means. so that is very important. and i do not think that it has a direct impact of all of russia against ukraine, but it is important before cosby should. c. 14 begins a campaign against ukraine in the framework of a creative design in this house actually to, to challenge nato. so the things are also important for our security in the future . so i'm your, how do you think this message will be received in moscow? i don't think that's it for. here's important right now for the russian leadership, because we talk here about the warranty. they're crazy, which is going since more than one year and the message processing back to you,

they still trying to do it where they were, the ones that are crammed with all the records on 2 different other procedures which are being fired every night. and all the bumps into over 0 victims. so the fact that the $100.00 or 2 hundreds rest on airplanes are going around both in the german aerospace does not change anything on the ground in ukraine. so the message is probably received some criminal in involved, this determines the strategy, but there is still on the new inc, what they were they want in the okay, remember marina respond to that if you like, that. i'd also like to, to say this, a cynic might say, you know, people in eastern europe and the baltic republics can perhaps sleep a little bit more soundly now at night after watching all these planes up in the, in the sky. but what does it do for you credit itself? well, i think one critical component of this entire war is actually an american and the support of ukraine. let's face it without the support ukraine would no longer exist as it exists today. so what need, what does, what ever,

it doesn't matters to the ukraine war, because basically as long as nato is united and supports ukraine, russia cannot win this war period. and so here by being able to stage this exercise and you know like, signaling that nato is serious, also bought us air power. i think it supports in directly the ukrainian effort, because let's don't forget russia has as an objective to divide needle can see this, you know, i can so many different facets, but one of the, and as that it was actually actively involved in, in france, that was just um, spoke yesterday by the ford minister there like a you know, having faint websites and propagating that you know, like this was basically anita initiated one not a rush initiated war. and by signaling the needle is united in this exercise. i think, you know, it strengthens to creating positions you wanted to respond to me. i think that the people in the baltic states and there are around the globe and the new great and eastern europe. he'll sleep a little ones have under us and becomes a normal state democratic state, but it's not about them. i never said something brought me to the play and or natal

. it's about being a normal country. okay. i think it should be one component. yes. that is one component to strengthen determines but what should be of cause done in the future is to see that ukraine is also important for security. so we should supply ukraine actually was more and defense should be effective. there's a likely larger chance that it, with a president bind his, that he's willing to say ukrainian pilots trained on on as you've still costs. will they be a game changer? know at the moment, not, not for the next months of useful for we'll see ok. hope that or friends, if bunch of the problem is if you're not begin to date, to do that and to train ukraine and so just you will not have it even next year. let me just very quickly come back to our title. if i may marina, we have counter offensive. how will put you in react? i think it will just be more of the same. i don't think that will be enough in an

intensification of the war effort. i think it will be, you know, ending up in a frozen conflict that will be with us for quite some time. thank you very much. thanks to all of you for being with us. thanks to our viewers for tutoring in check out our youtube website and let us know what you think about the program. we're eager to hear from you the the

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