i've been here for 20 years, nissan of a k, a tom lee, the most dangerous time we fund way was sort of the as we say, the poster child for the, the proliferation problem. and then it is said, no one has ever seen a stone in the side of the super powers. the world's most dangerous wanted dogs, june 29 on dw, the ukraine is long awaited counter offensive has begun. and while its forces are still reporting their gains in meters, experts say the progress is credible as ukrainian force has pushed to take territory and russian occupied south and east. they are relying in part of western supplied weapons like these leopard tags. soldiers report liberating

a series of villages, but russian military bloggers say some of these are still being contested. russia's overall response could depend on a power struggle within its military leadership, as well as on the resolve, a few crimes allies, many of which are currently taking parts in nato's largest ever air exercise. we're asking to cranes comforter offensive. we'll put you in via the welcome to to the point here are our guests. marina. hank a is director of how to use center of international security and an author of a claim to works on security policy. beautifully to yoga is an associate fellow at the german council on foreign relations center for order of governance in eastern europe and russia. and it's a or to welcome my colleague from dw slide image is the policy serves on our

russian language tests, and is a valued frequent guest on the program. and marina, if i may let me start with you, and nato secretary general is expressing what sounded like measured optimism. when asked about ukraine's counter offensive, he said it is gaining ground, he does see progress. what's your take? uh, would you agree? well, i think 1st and foremost we can say it has begun a but some folks expected and the day like offense us so you know, like all the different for grades that are trained now over, you know, like months on end with a storm into a russian fortified territory and take over, you know, like kind of like fix watts of land and one goal. and this was not at all what vc, vc actually much more operation, small operations, whether ukrainians or action testing the ground. they are testing where holes in

the fortifications and also like what's the more all like, where the strong troops, where the weaker troops, where can they actually gain some ground and make further progress? that's what i think you're seeing. i think the appropriate is very, very small. to me that's no surprise as well. you know, like, i'm not a pessimist, but i don't think you know, give, you can speak of a major success or victory on your credit inside so far. so you're saying essentially a little bit of expectation management is, uh, is, is warranted. ukraine is attacking for multiple directions. that's part of the test perhaps that you've described. does it also indicate a sense of confidence on the part of ukrainian leadership. so the only territory that has strategic value, the russia has captured in this entire war, is the southern eastern corridor and basically the land bridge to crimea. and of course, ukraine wants to recapture that piece of land. and exactly, we see that the operation to going from 3 different directions and so far, ever,

it, you know, i think it's really too early to get to any kind of conclusion and say, you know, like, if any of both sides is stronger or, you know, like i'm having the better equipment me, and if this lead russia has been making heavy use of air power, while ukraine is still waiting for the combat aircraft, the f sixteens that it has long been asking for from it, semester and allies. how much of a disadvantage is ukraine of under because of that? yes, it is a disadvantage that ukraine does not have these power, but we should take into account that no one else asides has do so priority in the that is absolute the case. and so ukrainians book capable to make the go operations even with out that domain, they things as space. and we should also see what we can take already from the 1st time. also offensive ukrainian high,

precise auto re systems working ukrainian successfully already halted. what is maybe more important than some villages at the moment they hotheads already, and when they shouldn't come on scientists also a huge units. also russians, what is of cause not shown in moscow and nonsense buys us because of the ministry of defense. speaking of what's sad and not said in house covering there, it may be early days, but latin being put in says that he can already judge the counter offensive to be a failure. and he said, ukraine's tank and truth losses are, quote, unquote, catastrophic whether or not that is true. what effect would you expect it to have? it's, is it safe to say it, even though let's look through the political of all the concerns of an unsafe on the granules surgeon know a little bit about the smoke progress of the ground troops on the ground, but it's too little time gum stinks. just begun and the other side that have create

a kind of hype around this contract for and see for the future expectations on the side some of the best on public because it talks of the rest on delivery for video grants was for months. i think it's great that the beek expectation in the, in the public, and not only in the ukraine, but the best. and probably because we all that we have kind of wonder reference to deliver to the crime in ukraine. go our on the russians. beaches of has been not happening. so we have to wait and see how there's things still develop on the ground. so are you saying that 14 with this declaration that it's all a failure is essentially doing counter height and will that have an effect in russia? he still has the support of most of the population, but there's no hype on the russian side. there's a greater or better how the so it's very rarely stick both there it is to but very, very small expectations. so they have to different defend deadlines. they're not on the dock this time, so you bring them to i have to go in to take the grounds again again,

which is probably better as a freshman forces. but on the russian side there is no huge um hype around. but in terms of to fix the traditional just of this defensive campaign, i want to come back to that a little bit later on. but i'd like to 1st take a look at what i hope we will see a shortly on the screens behind us. namely, the biggest industrial disaster that europe has seen for a number of years, the breach of ukraine's nova whole. the damn it is it, it is thought that russia was behind to this catechism. the logic of the action no vill for it seems a little bit dubious. because uh you know, targeting civilians, thats usual for russia but the fact is that its own forces positions have been inundated by this flood. so would you expect none? the less that this is a, you know,

a russian action and will it help or hurt fresh overall? i think that on to probably versions when we look at the aims of russia and what happens. i think it is. one is credible but russian trying to really to a fleet pods up to the lower the pro region in order to push out the ukrainians was already on the islands on the nipple and a tech to the left bank. and they really effectively affect it already. so they did many rates on the other side. so for the russians, as was the problems that they had also to care, not only about the ease of the above supple easier, but also about the lower people agent. and i think they wanted, if there is a, there is also around to sink, is that's a, has the intention to do something at 2 block is that direction fazio craniums, but not with that, i mentioned, i think the things went as they did not expect. i think they want to damage something as they want to let to want to down,

but maybe not. the whole thing is the 2nd version is also is the responsibility of the russians. because the russians mind the band wednesday occupies this territory . the russians did not manage regularly and professionally as a want to control of the of them. so it was of them was under pressure and if they may be, did some not very good things that could also let's to a full damage. also then, so the russian in both cases, even if that would not have been a clear intention to use it for military reasons. russia is responsible for that. what happens because they did not let other organizations and they did not professionally manage that, that. let me add something to this because i think a very important component of the damn is also that russia wants to break the will of the ukrainian people, right? so they have shown this over the, you know, since the war started, but in particular, during the winter, when they attacked the pol plans and really wanted to hurt the people. and i think

here this was just another occasion to literally like send the message. and we, you know, like, do no longer respect to even the civilians every want you to hurt. and you know, like that's why the flooded planes and also just a massive to mentoring catastrophe is part and parcel of the strategy you're worried about. let me start if i may add the distance this strikes on the energy infrastructure is an important component of the source. so it's not going to involve the power plants and you know crane dominic healthcare is not the thing, not the same pipeline as well. it was against the energy as a goal, underscore, and would you that in there also assume that russia was behind this action. and if so, what messages if trying to send with with that as the messages are it's all in for us. so every, every refund is ok for us. i not the look the refund or not. you have to move on. no bill for them yet. but it's like it's one another,

one piece of russians warfare, conventional conventional different information. laura. and then we're on the, in, in the infrastructure, so on every single piece of front, rustic and striking with for they were, they were battling their striking marina. certainly the wider effects of this breach of the day i'm look very concerning, not only for ukraine, the water level has gone down significantly in the whole the reservoir, which feeds very critical canals, both for ukrainian agriculture. and ukraine, of course, is the bread basket of the wheat supply here too much of the world. but also the nuclear power plant mentioned by feel free to accept provision. so it's, you know, very, very significant damage here for quite a long period of time into the future. it's an absolute disaster. it's an absolute humanitarian, but also, you know, just a strategic disaster. and what, you know, like a very sneed, the most a way, you know, like i'm very critical off,

is also that, you know, like, that is actually not enough presence now by international organizations, for example, by the united nations, to really call this out. because this is something you know, like that is for everything is legitimate and in war and loves, apparently about here. really like to put this on at the decimal and say like, what russia is doing is not okay because it will effect as it just mentioned, every single region on this planet. again, in africa, again in the middle east where you don't have the green supplies. but in those regions you have a lot of folks are still believe that nato is actually with united states as the aggressor. and russia is the week of force and it was forced to launch those more. and so i think, you know, like this moment really needs to be used by responsible figures into national communities really portray the question is using, you know, like weapons that are just against every single possible moral a clause out there. meanwhile, in russia, we are seeing

a developing power struggle, neither portez propaganda, nor dramatic displays of capture tank. so such as those being shown on russian tv belie the fact that russia has not had the success of expect it when it began its invasion as pressure bounce. the ongoing, in fighting between the defense ministry and the private military company. wagner has now come to ahead with the former, telling the latter, its volunteers must become contractors to the defense ministry, the military unit, and it's come on the other 1st to sign a contract with rushes defense ministry. this place is the army of dramas and cut it off under the supervision of the russian army. the older also affects the have get any precautions. wagner, group the must under referrals and impulse and pitiful rushes. all me was last deployed in the password for the strategic lee and symbolically impulse and said to your fucking legs. now, precaution refuses to sign contracts with the ministry of defense. he says that

mister shaw, who has so far, been unable to lead his own troops. meanwhile, there is also speculation about whether the defense minister himself has fully announce a favor with boots and is the power struggle in the kremlin intensifying. and let me pass that question straight over to vladimir, is the power struggle intensifying and what are its larger consequences? in my impression, yes, we have a power struggle north inside the colonel, but between the russian army in the private group, wagner, which is not part of the russian government. so it's kind of outside of the government's structure and interested in anything to see how quick you have any pre goals and start to build up to just political compound and the companion inside the groups is not on the on the front. i suppose you travel through, i'll say in the recent weeks and gave a press conference and talked about the terms of both ross and politics about domestic politics, about a big abroad of questions, not on the mean at the strategy in the ukraine. and it's the kind of, i would say,

a rising star over the last 4 digits on the social media because he didn't quite professional get social media and using his muted and fire quite well. and he reminds me a little bit on donald trump because in the beginning of the drums, political campaign was a big part of this. they've just went about like smart inc. and doesn't, didn't take seriously this time slipping in grad precautions right now. but i could not and i, i think if it's possible that she would start the political car so that sounds like you're telling us. so the person threatened here is not the defense minister of that and by precaution, but perhaps putting himself from that too early to say. but there's, there's wildest stipulations gotten in the russian internet about the strategies of pretty goals and, and she has goals and the possible powers inside the freshman for the 6. what might support him because she would not start this kind of political assault on the,

on the minister of defense and the political campaign inside of russia without the very strong support from very high level circles interested inside the freshman party 6 different. meanwhile, those who try to read the tea leaves from the kremlin are very interested in a photo that written just recently publicized that shows the russian president quite ostentatiously giving the cold shoulder to the defense minister. though the former, though they were formerly considered quite good friends, what are we to make of that if anything. so i can not so much make of that because i think it much more important is what is the consequence of that struggle. as a consequence of its cycle is that's the problem between the organization also military of, of the text of the regular army on the one side, on the one hand. and so pre goes in company, on the, as of, on the other hand will continue. so what 14 try to do is he tried to balance

something he gave the go uh he gave his minister of defense was a soap or is this a po claim? so all the nation of private companies under the army, he gave him something to protect himself. but at the same time we see that the goes in is building up for the his media presence. so nothing is resourced on the ground . and that is important for put in because if on the ground so mismanagement on the combined weapon attack management. if that is continuing, that is a problem for putting in the end because that can let fall for gaps falls of ukrainian army which can be used. what's your take on all of this marina? so, you know, like now from western perspective, i think they're too big takeaways on the one hand, i think that in fighting between the wagner groups and the regular military, well in one form or another negative impact, what happens in the ukraine. so this was not an asset, but it's actually a disadvantage for russia. but on the other hand, somebody like br, gordon is not somebody who's pro western or you know,

life wants to an end does war. and to the contrast, one couldn't interpret that. he's even more hard line than troy go and maybe even the current establishment of the military. and he will also pursue this very hostile anti western antenatal attitude. so even if there's a power struggle in, in russia that, you know, like maybe might even need to, you know, this is now a very for dramatic, but to be collapse of the machine. that does not mean that then we have a version that is actually, you know, like much more friendly to, to nato's interest. like him here. the widely quoted report from bloomberg says that russia's leads no longer believe or many of the lead no longer believes that proteins or on ukraine is winnable. do you see signs that that is true? and again, what would that matter? what would it mean for put in, what would it mean for the outcome of the war or board with like, a huge increase in, from coal consumption in the restaurant. and there is some weeks and months, so it's mind to connect to this disability. and so the rest and that it's on the

political reduction because i'll go what was the last last minute or 2 and stay the money a lot. so but on the sort of side, and it's interesting, what's the shift for us of today serve last week, all of a sudden on there are some folks on this in mind on thought that maybe it's time for a cease fire into their crane. it may be, it could be another one that are for random in the area. so when they are currently occupied at the bus and forces and the people who are leaving, they don't want to stay with russia, let them go free back to the crane. so it's a very new thoughts on the russian establishment which of the parts of the russians establishment to reach them. it was very loyal to present, put them into what's very pro war. all the time sensitive were begun and all of a sudden use use size such noises on the political center. what does that mean is put in this position i looking for?

it's not the same thing, but it's so busy in the part of the establishment. there are some, some movement that what's supposed it's not on the surface. it's under sort of race and it's on the different science of this. but this, i think it's, it's so i think it's changing. meanwhile, the west has repeatedly promised to support ukraine as long as it takes nato is currently carrying out the largest air maneuver in its history. a clear signal to russia will put in, take note, a defend the 23 is the largest deployment exercise of forces and nato's history. almost all member nations of taking pause in the maneuver on the job and leadership. according to the survey at around 10000 soldiers and 250 across all taking part, the usa as participating with a 100 across the participants wants to show that they can defend europe against error attacks. the allies are primarily concerned with the question of whether the

us can deploy forces to europe quickly enough in an emergency. during the exercises the russian enclave of colleen and broad will be carefully floating around to avoid any provocation as the russian side, as will start practicing for the event of war and the politics e. x. the sizes of the russian fleets began in early june, up to 40 ships and boats. $25.00 across and about $3500.00 soldiers also be involved the russian minutes. reset. what signals do these exercises send out? and i'll pass that question straight to you feel free to what, what messages this sending. i think it is an important message of the tyrants that nato tries to build up and updates its capabilities for the defense. and also we have to see that the at cross potential of nato is one of the most

important parts of the message with what is the us communicated to the kremlin in the autumn last year. winds i said, if you will use a means of mass destruction, you should know, said we are capable and ready to shoot russian troops out with, with or what that means. so that is very important. and i do not think that it has a direct impact off the wall of russia against ukraine. but it is important before cosby should. c. 14 begins a campaign against ukraine in a framework of a crate to be signed into the false, actually, to, to challenge nato. so the things are also important for our security in the future . so, i mean, how do you think this message will be received in moscow? i don't think it's, it's a huge importance right now for the russian leadership. because we have talked to you about the warranty or crimes which is going since more than one year. and the message processing back to you, and they still trying to do what they were,

the one thing their claims and all that rockets on different other procedures which are being fired every night and all the bumps into over 2 victims. so the fact that the 100 or 2 hundreds best and better plans are going around both in the german aerospace doesn't change anything on the ground in your crane. so the message is probably received in coming in involved this the turn strategy. but there is still on doing what they were, they want their crew members marino respond to that if you like that. i'd also like to, to say this, a cynic might say, you know, people in eastern europe and the baltic republics can perhaps sleep a little bit more soundly now at night after watching all these planes up in the, in the sky. but what does it do for you credit itself as well? i think one critical component of this entire war is actually an american and the support of ukraine. let's face it without the support ukraine would no longer exist as it exists today. so what need, what does, what ever,

it doesn't matters to the ukraine war, because basically as long as nato is united and supports ukraine, russia cannot win this war period. and so here by being able to stage this exercise and you know like, signaling that nato is serious also bought at the airport. i think it's a port in directly the ukranian effort because let's don't forget russia has as no objective to divide. needle can see this, you know, i can so many different facets, but one of them is that it was actually actively involved in, in france that was just then spilled yesterday by the, for administer. they are like a, you know, having st. what sides and, and propagating that, you know, like this was basically anita initiated one not a rush initiated war. and by signaling the needle is united in this exercise. i think, you know, it strengthens to creating positions. you wanted to respond to me. i think that the people in the baltic states and in the around the globe and they knew great in eastern europe, bill, sleep well on the vendor. awesome becomes a normal state democratic state,

but it's not about them. i never said something about me that the plane or natal. it's about being a normal country. okay, i think it should be one component. yes. that is one component to strengthen determines but what should be of cause done in the future is to see that ukraine is also important. follow security. so you should supply ukraine actually is more and defense. she'll be effective. there's a likely larger chance that it with a president by and has said he's willing to say ukrainian pilots trained on on as you have still thoughts. will they be a game changer? know at the moment, not, not for the next month or so useful faculty or phillips at or fence if bunch of the problem is, if you're not getting to date to do with that and to train ukraine is soldiers. you will not have it even next year. let me just very quickly come back to our title. if i may, marina, we ask counter offensive. how will protein react? i think goal is to see more of the same. i don't think that will be enough in an

intensification of the war effort. i think it will be, you know, ending up in a frozen conflict that will be with us for quite some time. thank you very much. thanks to all of you for being with us. thanks to our viewers for tutoring in check out our youtube website and let us know what you think about the program. we're eager to hear from you. the

entered the conflicts with search really. after months of speculation, the long anticipating ukrainian counter offensive appears to be under way. my guess this week on complex own is ukrainian deputy prime minister,

all the stuff in need to know who overseas ukraine's integration into the un nato. what more does she need from partners to future proof? ukraine's defense conflict zone in 30 minutes on d. w. making the headlines and what's behind them. dw news africa, the shows that faculty issues shaping the continents slowly getting back to normal here. well, and this feeds to give you in this report on the inside correspondence is on the ground reporting from across the continent, all the french stuff from outside to you use africa every friday on dw guardians of truth. my name is junk and and i have paid almost every price of being enjoying this in the country. like to keep

taking on the powers that be they risk every thing john doing dar, s activist journalist and politicians living and anxiety too much on my shoulders. but i have to hold this weight because i'm responsible for the future follow country for the people who are behind the bus for their mission. people need to know what is happening there. you know, receives guardians of truth watching it on youtube. dw documentary, the i'm tired of the 34 years. i was

a metal i didn't know. now i know the never ending story of asbestos starts june 21st on d w the . this is dw use life from but then 9 been arrested on suspicion of people spotlight. it's one of the mediterranean worst folk disasters. embracing d is asking for. so still searching the survivors. it's been hundreds of my friends have dr. k.