the sometimes a seed is all you need to allow big ideas to grow. we're bringing an environmental conservation to wife with learning facts like global ideas. we will show you how climate change and environmental conservation is taking shape around the world and how we can make a difference. knowledge grows through sharing, download it now from the ukraine. his long awaited counter offensive has begun. and while its forces are still reporting their gains in meters, experts say the progress is credible as ukrainian forces pushed to take territory and russian occupied south and east. they are relying in part of western supplied weapons like these levered tanks. soldiers report liberating a series of villages,

but russian military bloggers say some of these are still being contested. russia's overall response could depend on a power struggle within its military leadership, as well as on the resolve a few crimes allies, many of which are currently taking parts in nato's largest ever air exercise. we're asking to cranes calendar expensive, so we'll put you in via the a. welcome to to the point here, our, our guest marina hank. a is director of how to use center of international security and an author of a claim to works on security policy. beautifully to yoga is an associate fellow at the german council on foreign relations center for order and governance in eastern europe and russia. and it's a pleasure to welcome my colleague from dw flat and reduce the policy serves on our

russian language desk, and is a valued frequent guest on the program. marina, if i may let me start with you, and nato secretary general is expressing what sounded like measured optimism. when asked about ukraine's counter offensive, he said it is gaining ground, he does see progress. what's your take? would you agree? well, i think of that 1st and foremost we can say it has begun, but some folks expected and the day like offense us so you know, like all the different for grades that are trained now over, you know, like months on end would a storm into a russian fortified territory and take over, you know, like kind of like fix watts of land and one goal. and this was not at all what vc, vc actually much more operation, small operations, whether ukrainians are action testing the ground. they are testing where holes in

the fortifications and also like what's the more all like, where the strong troops, where the weaker troops, where can they actually gain some ground and make further progress? that's what i think we are seeing. i think the appropriate is very, very small. to me that's no surprise as well. you know, i am not a pessimist, but i don't think, you know, can, you can speak of an a major success or victory on your credit inside so far. so you're saying essentially a little bit of expectation management is, uh, is, is warranted. ukraine is attacking for multiple directions. that's part of the test . perhaps that you've described. does it also to create a sense of confidence on the part of ukrainian leadership. so the only territory that have strategic value that russia has captured in this entire war is the southern eastern chord or, and basically the land bridge to come. yeah. and of course ukraine wants to recapture that piece of land. and exactly. we see that the operations going from 3

different directions and so far, ever, it, you know, i think it's really too early to get to any kind of conclusion and say, you know, like, if any of both sides is stronger or, you know, like i'm having the better equipment, me, and if this lead, russia has been making heavy use of air power, while ukraine is still waiting for the combat aircraft, the f sixteens that it has long been asking for from it, semester and allies. how much of a disadvantage is ukraine of under because of that? yes, it is a disadvantage that ukraine does not have seized power, but we should take into accounts that no one else asides has do so priority in the sense that is absolute the case and to ukrainians broad capable to make the go operations even was out that dominating the space and we should also see what we can take already from the 1st time. also offensive, ukrainian high, precise auto re, systems working ukrainian successfully already halted,

but it's maybe more importance in some villages at the moment they hotheads already . and when they shouldn't come on scientist, also a huge units of the russians. what is of cause not shown in moscow and nonsense buys, was because of the ministry of defense. speaking of what's said and not said in house covering there, it may be early days, but latin being put in says that he can already judge the counter offensive to be a failure. and he said, you cranes, tank and troop losses are quote, unquote, catastrophic whether or not to that is true. what effect would you expect it to have? it's, is it safe, is really to say, even though like a look through a political about the calendar and often safe on the granules surgeon know a little bit about the smoke progress of the ground troops on the ground. but it's too little time gum stinks. does the gun and the other side that have create it, kind of hype around this contract for unsafe and the future expectations on the

side from the rest on public because it talks of the rest on delivery to the grants was 4 months. i think it's great that the beek expectation in the, in the public, and not the ukraine, but the best. and probably because we all that we have kind of wonder reference to deliver to the crime. and you can go our around the russians. pictures of the north happening, so we have to wait and see how there's things still develop on the ground. so are you saying that 14 with this declaration that it's all a failure is essentially doing counter height and will that have an effect in russia? he still has the support of most of the population, but there's no hype on the russian side. there's a quite the bitter or how does so it's various rarely stick both there it is to, but very small expectations. so they have to different, defend the lines. they're not on the back of this times for your convenience, i have to go in to take their grounds again,

which is probably better as a freshman forces. but on the russian side there's no huge um hype around. but in terms of to fix the traditional just of this defensive campaign, i want to come back here to that a little bit later on. but i'd like to 1st take a look at what i hope we will see shortly on the screens behind us. namely, the biggest industrial disaster that europe has seen for a number of years. the breach of ukraine's nova whole, the damn it is. uh it, it is thought that russia was behind to this cataclysm. the logic of the action. no bill for it seems a little bit dubious because uh, you know, targeting civilians thats usual for russia. but the fact is that its own forces positions have been inundated by this flood. so would you expect none? the less that this is a, you know, a russian action and will it help or hurt pressure overall?

i think they have to probable versions when we look at the aims of russia and what happens, i think it is. one is credible, but russian tried really to a fleet pods up to the lower the pro region in order to push out the ukrainians was already on the islands on the pole and a tech to the left bank. and they really effectively affect it already. so they did many rates on the other side. so for the russians, as was the problems that they had also to care, not only about the ease of the above supple easier, but also about the lower people agent. and i think they wanted, if there is a, there is also ground to think. does that say, has the intention to do something and to block is that direction? fazio craniums but not was that i mentioned i think is as things went as they did not expect, i think they want to damage something as they want to let to for want to down. but

maybe not. the whole thing is, the 2nd version is also is the responsibility of the russians, because the russians mind the band wednesday, occupies the territory. the russians did not manage regularly and professionally is a water control of the of them. so it was of them was under pressure and if they may be, did some not very good things that could also let's to a full damage. also them, so a russian in both cases, even if that would not have been a clear intention to use it for military reasons. russia is responsible for that. what happens because they did not let other organizations and they did not professionally manage said that let me add something to this because i think a very important component of the dam is also that russia wants to break the will of the cleaning people, right? so they have shown this over the, you know, since the war started, but in particular, during the winter, when they attacked the pol plans and really want to hurt the people. and i think here this is just another occasion to literally like send the message. and we,

you know, like do no longer respect to even the civilians. and we want you to hurt. and you know, like that's why the flooded plains and also just the mass. what you meant tearing catastrophe is part and parcel of the strategy to the word about. let me start if i may add to this strikes on the energy infrastructure as an important component of the source. so it's not going to be involved the power plants and the grain. dominic healthcare is not doing not seen pipeline, is that all it was against the energy as a goal in this war? and would you that in there also assume that russia was behind this action and if so, what message is it trying to send with with that all the messages are it's all in for us. so every, every ribbon is ok for us. i not the look that way fund or a not you have to me, don't know if you will type them yet, but it's like it's one another,

one piece of russians warfare conventional conventional different informations, laura and then we're on the, in, in the infrastructure. so on every single piece of front, the arsic on striking with for they were or whatever veterans they're striking. marina, certainly the wider effects of this breach of the day i'm look very concerning and not only for ukraine, the water level has gone down significantly in the whole the reservoir, which feeds very critical canals, both for ukrainian agriculture. and ukraine, of course, is the bread basket of the wheat supply here too much of the world. but also the nuclear power plant mentioned by feel free to add stuff provision. so it's, you know, very, very significant damage here for quite a long period of time into the future. it's an absolute disaster. it's an absolute humanitarian, but also, you know, just a strategic disaster. and what, you know, like a brief me the most a way you know, like i'm very critical off is also that,

you know, like that's actually not enough presence now by international organizations, for example, by the united nations, to really call this out. because this is something you know, like that is short, everything is legitimate and in war and loves apparently about here. really like to put this on at the decimal and say like, what russia is doing is not okay because it will effect as it just mentioned, every single region on this planet. again, in africa, again in the middle east where you don't have the grand supplies. but in those regions, you have a lot of folks are still believe that nato is actually with the united states as the aggressor. and russia is the week of force and it was forced to launch those more. and so i think, you know, like this moment really needs to be used by responsible figures in the international community really portray the washer is using, you know, like the weapons that are just against every single possible moral a clause out there. meanwhile, in russia, we are seeing a developing power struggle, neither portez propaganda,

nor dramatic displays of capture tank. so such as those being shown on russian tv belie the fact that russia has not had the success that expected when it began its invasion as pressure bounce. the ongoing, in fighting between the defense ministry and the private military company, wagner has now come to ahead with the former, telling the latter, its volunteers must become contractors to the defense ministry, the military unit, and its come on to all the funds to sign the contract with russia's defense ministry, this place is the army of commons and cut it off under the supervision of the russian army. the older also effects you have given me play cousin's wagner group. the messenger repulse an impulse intended for russia's army, was lost, employed in the password for the strategically and symbolically impulse instead to your fucking legs. now, precaution refuses to sign contracts with the ministry of defense. he says that

minister shaw who has so far, been unable to lead his own troops. meanwhile, there is also speculation about whether the defense minister himself has fully announce a favor with pollution. is the power struggle in the kremlin intensifying. and let me pass that question straight over to vladimir, is the power struggle intensifying and what are its larger consequences? in my impression, yes, we have a power struggle north inside the colonel, but between the russian army and the private group wagner, which is not part of the russian government. so it's kind of outside of the government's structure and it's doing anything to see how quick you have any pre goals and start to build up to just political compound in companion, inside the group. yeah. you know it onto the, on the front or you travel directly in the recent weeks and gave a press conference and talked about the terms about the russian politics about domestic politics, about a big abroad of questions. not on the mean that the strategy in the ukraine,

and it's the kind of, i would say, a rising star over the last 4 digits on the social media because he is doing quite professional with social media and using his media empire quite well. i'm in here in my it's me is a little bit on donald trump because in the beginning of trump's political campaign was the parts of the state government about like smart inc and doesn't do that. seems seriously the things have been in good precautions right now. but i could not and i, i think if it's possible that she would start the political partner, so that sounds like you're telling us. so the person threatens here is not the defense minister of that and by precaution, but perhaps putting himself from that too early to say. but there's, there's wildest the collisions gotten in the russian internet about the strategies of pre gordon and she has goals and the possible powers inside the freshman for the 6. what might support him because she would not start this kind of political assault on the, on the minister of defense and the political campaign inside of russia with all the

very strong supports on very high level circles in ross inside the present. but it takes a different meanwhile, those who try to read the tea leaves from the kremlin are very interested in a photo that written this recently publicized that shows the russian president quite ostentatiously giving the cold shoulder to the defense minister. though the former, though they were formerly considered quite good friends, what are we to make of that if anything. so i can not so much make of that because i think it much more important is what is the consequence of that struggle. as a consequence of that struggle is, that's the problem between the organization of the military of, of the techs, also regular army on the one side, on the one hand. and so pre goes and company on the, as of the, on the other hand, will continue. so what 14 try to do is he tried to balance something he gave the go

uh he gave his minister of defense with a soap opera. is this a po claim? so all the nation of private companies under the army, he gave him something to protect himself, but at the same time we see that the goes in is building up for the his immediate presence. so nothing is reserved on the ground. and that is important for put in because if on the ground, the mismanagement on the combined weapon attack management, if that is continuing, that is a problem for putting in the end because that can let fall for gaps falls of ukrainian army which can be used. what's your take on all of this marina? so you know, like now from western perspective, i think they're too big takeaways on the one hand, i think the in fighting between the wagner groups and the regular military. but in one form or another negative impact what happens in ukraine. so this is not an asset, but it's actually a disadvantage for russia. but on the other hand, somebody like for gordon is not somebody who's pro western or, you know, life wants to end those war to the contrast,

one can interpret that. he's even more hard line than troy. go and maybe even the current establishment of the military. and he will also pursue this very hostile anti western antenatal attitude. so even if there's a power struggle in, in russia that, you know, like maybe might even lead to, you know, this is now very interested, but to be collapse of the regime. that does not mean that then we have the regime that is actually, you know, like much more frenzy to to nato's interest. let them hear that a widely quoted report from bloomberg says said rushed as it leads no longer believe or many of the lead no longer believes that proteins or on ukraine is winnable. do you see signs that that is true? and again, what would that matter? what would it mean for put in, what would it mean for the outcome of the war or board with like a huge increase the phone cut over consumption in the restaurant and there is some 2 weeks and months. so it's mind to connect to this distribution. so the rest of that, it's on the political reduction because i'll go what was the last last minute or 2

and stay the lot. so but on the sort of side, and it's interesting what the chief of the rest of today started last week, all of a sudden on the russian book. so you see my now i thought that maybe it's time for a cease fire into it. okay. it may be, it could be another one that are for random in the area. so with the crime beach oh, good by the, by russian forces. and the people who are leaving the, the don't want to stay with russia. let them go free back to the crane. so it's a very new dance on the russian establishment, which of the parts of the russians establishment reaching, but was very loyal to prison and put them into what's very pro war. all the time sensitive were begun. and all of a sudden use your site, such as noise, that's on the political step. what does that mean is put in this position i looking for it's not shaking, but it's so busy in the part of the establishment. the some,

some movement that would support it's not on the surface, it's under sort of phase and it's on the different science of this. but this, i think it's, it's so i think it's changing. meanwhile, the west has repeatedly promised to support ukraine as long as it takes nato is currently carrying out the largest air maneuver in its history. a clear signal to russia will put in, take no or add defend the $23.00 is the largest deployment exercise of forces in nato's history. almost all member nations of taking pause and the maneuver on the job and leadership. according to the abundance of a at around $10000.00 soldiers and $250.00 across all taken parts. the usa is participating with a 100 across the participants wants to show that they can defend europe against error attacks. the allies are primarily concerned with the question of whether the us can deploy forces to your quickly enough in an emergency. during the exercises

the russian enclave of colleen and broad will be carefully floating around to avoid any provocation as the russian side, as will start practicing for the event of war and the politics e. x. the sizes of the russian fleets began in early june, up to 40 ships and boats. $25.00 across and about $3500.00 soldiers also be involved. the russian ministry said what signals do these exercises send out. and i'll pass that question straight to you feel free, what, what messages this sending. i think it is an important message of the tyrants that nato tries to build up and updates is a capabilities for the defense. and also we have to see that the at cross potential of nato is one of the most important parts of the message with what is the us

communicated to the kremlin in the autumn last year. winds i said, if you will use a means of mass distraction, you should know that we are capable and ready to shoot russian troops out with, with or what that means. so that is very important. and i do not think that it has a direct impact of the wall of russia against ukraine, but it is important before cosby should. c. 14 begins a campaign against ukraine in a framework of a creative design into this house actually to, to challenge nato. so the things are also important for our security in the future . so i'm your, how do you think this message will be received in moscow? i don't think that it's a huge importance right now for the russian leadership, because we've talked about the warranty. they're crazy, it's just going since and more than one year. and the message processing back to you. they still trying to do what they were,

the ones that are created with all the rockets on kia from the other citrus which i'm being fired every night. and all the bumps into over 2 victims. so the fact that the 100 or 200 invest in airplanes are going around both in the german aerospace does not change anything on the ground in your crane. so the message is probably received in criminal, involved as the turn strategy, but there is still on doing what they were. they want their claim number. marina respond to that. if you liked that, i'd also like to to say this, a cynic might say, you know, people in eastern europe and the baltic republics can perhaps sleep a little bit more soundly now at night after watching all these planes up in the, in the sky. but what does it do for you credit itself? well, i think one critical component of this entire war is actually an american and the support of ukraine. let's face it without the support ukraine would no longer exist as it exists today. so what need, what does, what ever,

it doesn't matters to the ukraine war, because basically as long as nato is united and supports ukraine, russia cannot win this war period. and so here by being able to stage this exercise and you know like, signaling that nato is serious, also bought of the air power. i think it supports in directly the ukranian effort because let's don't forget russia has as no objective to divide needle. we can see this, you know, i can so many different facets, but one of the is that it was actually actively involved in, in france. that was just then spilled yesterday by the foreign minister there like a, you know, having faith, what sides and, and propagating that, you know like this was basically anita initiated one, not a russian shade war. and by signaling the needle is united in this exercise. i think, you know, it strengthens to creating positions you wanted to respond to me. i think that the people in the baltic states and the around the globe and they knew, crane and eastern europe. he'll sleep a little ones have under us and becomes a normal state democratic state, but it's not about them. i never said something. walk me to the plane or natal.

it's about being normal country. okay. i think it should be one component. yes. that is one component to strength and determines but what should be of cause done in the future is to see that your crane is also important for security. so you should supply your grant actually was more and defense should be active. there's a likely larger chance that it with a president by and has said he's willing to say ukrainian pilots trained on, on as you have still cause will they being a game changer know at the moment not, not for the next month. i'll see useful faculty ok, hope that or friends, if bunch of the problem is if you're not begin to date, to do that and to train ukrainian soldier as you will not have it even next year. let me just very quickly come back to our title. if i may marina, we ask counter offensive, how will put you in react? i think it will just be more of the same. i don't think that will be enough in an

intensification of the war effort. i think it will be, you know, ending up in a frozen conflict that will be with us for quite some time. thank you very much. thanks to all of you for being with us. thanks to our viewers for to and again, check out our youtube website and let us know what you think about the program. we're eager to hear from you the the

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