so he sets out on one last journey to visit the remnants of the vanished world. the captured in black and white rocks. last beauty dw, these places in europe are smash, record stepped into a pulpit, venture pizza, the treasure map for modern globetrotters. discover some of us record breaking site on google maps to and now also in book form, the ukraine is long awaited counter offensive has begun. and while its forces are still reporting their gains in meters, experts say the progress is credible as ukrainian forces pushed to take territory and russian occupied south and east. they are relying in part of western supplied weapons like these leopard tags. soldiers report liberating a series of villages,

but russian military bloggers say some of these are still being contested. russia's overall response could depend on a power struggle within its military leadership, as well as on the resolve, a few crimes allies, many of which are currently taking parts in nato's largest ever air exercise. we're asking to crane's comforter offensive. we'll put you in via the welcome to to the point here are our guests. marina. hank a is director of how to use center of international security and an author of a claim to works on security policy. beautifully to yoga is an associate fellow at the german council on foreign relations center for order and governance in eastern europe and russia. and it's a pleasure to welcome mike colleague from dw is adding

a decent palsky serves on our russian language tests, and is a valued frequent guest on the program. and marina, if i may let me start with you, and nato secretary general is expressing what sounded like measured optimism. when asked about ukraine's counter offensive, he said it is gaining ground, he does see progress. what's your take? uh, would you agree? well, i think of that 1st and foremost we can say it has begun, but some folks expected and day like offense us. so, you know, like all the different for grades that are trained now over, you know, like months on end with a storm into a russian fortified territory and take over, you know, like kind of like fix watts of land and one goal. and this is not at all, let me see, let me see actually much more operation, small operations, whether ukrainians are action testing the ground, they are testing where holes in the fortifications and also my thoughts. the more

all like where the strong troops, where the weaker troops, where i can actually gain some ground and make further progress. that's what i think we're seeing. i think the appropriate is very, very small. to me, that's no surprise as well. you know, like, i'm not a pessimist, but i don't think, you know, can, you can speak of an, a major success or victory on your current insights so far. so you're saying essentially a little bit of expectation management is, uh, is, is warranted. ukraine is attacking for multiple directions. that's part of the test, perhaps that you've described. does it also indicate a sense of confidence on the part of ukrainian leadership. so the only territory that have strategic value, the question has captured in this entire war, is the southern eastern court or, and basically the land bridge to come. you and of course ukraine wants to recapture that piece of land. and exactly. we see that the operations of one from 3 different

directions and so far, however, it is, you know, i think it's really too early to get to any kind of conclusion and say, you know, like, if any of both sides a stronger or, you know, like, i'm having the better equipment me, and if this lead, russia has been making heavy use of air power, while ukraine is still waiting for the combat aircraft, the f sixteens that has as long been asking for from it, semester and allies. how much of a disadvantage is ukraine of under because of that? yes, it is a disadvantage that ukraine does not have these power. but we should take into accounts that no one else asides has to so priority in the that is absolute the case and to ukrainians. brooke capable to make the, the operations even was out that dominating the space. and we should also see what we can take already from the 1st time, also offensive, ukrainian, high, precise auto laurice systems working ukrainian successfully already halted. what is

maybe more important than some villages at the moment they hotheads already emanation. come on, senators, also a huge units of the russians. what is of cause not shown in moscow and nonsense buys us because of the ministry of defense. speaking of what's sad and not said in house covering there, it may be early days, but vladimir put in says that he can already judge the counter offensive to be a failure. and the said, ukraine's tank and truth losses are quote, unquote, catastrophic whether or not that is true. what effect would you expect it to have? it's, is it safe to say it even though like a look to a political, involved the concerns of an unsafe on the brand, new surgeon know a little bit about the smoke progress of the ground troops on the ground, but it's too little time gum stinks. does begun and the other side that have create it, kind of,

of hype around this contract for unsafe and the future expectations on the side them the best and public because it talks of the rest on delivery to your grants was 4 months. i think it's great that the beek expectation in the, in the public, and not only in the ukraine, but the best. and probably because we all that we have kind of wonder reference to deliver to the requirements. you can go our on the russians featured offers and what's happening. so we have to wait and see how these things still develop on the ground. so are you saying the food chain, with this declaration, that it's all a failure, is essentially doing counter height and will that have an effect in russia? he still has the support of most of the population. but there's no hype on the russian side. there's a quite the bitter or how does so it's various rarely stick both there it is to but very small expectations. so they have to different defend the lines. they're not on the dock this time, so you bring them to have to go in to take their grounds again,

which is probably better as a freshman forces. but on the russian side, there's no huge um hype around, but in terms of to effect sufficient interest of this defensive campaign. i want to come back here to that a little bit later on, but i'd like to 1st take a look at what i hope we will see shortly on the screens behind us. namely the biggest industrial disaster that europe has seen for a number of years. the breach of ukraine's nova whole, the damn it is. uh it, it is thought that russia was behind to this cataclysm. the logic of the action though, bill for it seems a little bit dubious because uh, you know, targeting civilians, thats usual for russia. but the fact is that its own forces positions have been inundated by this flood. so would you expect none? the less that this is a you know, a russian action and will it help or hurt rush overall?

i think that on to probably versions when we look at the aims of russia and what's happened. i think it is. one is credible, but russian tried really to a fleet parts of the lower the pro region in order to push out the ukrainians was already on the islands onto the pole and a tech to the left bank. and they really effectively affect it already. so they did many rates on the other side. so for the russians as was the problems that they had also to care, not only about the use of the support easier, but also about the lower people agent. and i think they wanted, if there is a, there is also ground to think. does that say, has the intention to do something and to block is that direction? fazio craniums but not was that i mentioned i think is as things went as they did not expect, i think they want to damage something as they want to let to want to down,

but maybe not. the whole thing is, the 2nd version is also is the responsibility of the russians, because the russians mind the band wednesday, occupies the territory. the russians did not manage regularly and professionally as a water control officer them. so it was of them was under pressure. and if they may be, did some not very good things that could also let's to a full damage also them. so a russian in both cases, even if that would not have been a clear intention to use that for military reasons. russia is responsible for that . what happens because they did not let other organizations and they did not professionally manage said that let me add something to this because i think i'm very important. component of the dam is also that rush. i wants to break the will of the cleaning people, right? so they have shown this over the, you know, since the war started, but in particular, during the winter, when they attacked the pol plans and really want to hurt the people. and i think here this was just another occasion to literally like send the message. and we,

you know, like doing no longer respect to even the civilians. we want you to hurt. and you know, like that's why the flooded plains and also just the mass which meant tearing catastrophe, is part and parcel of the strategy to the word about. let me start by may add to this strikes on the energy infrastructure as an important component of the source. so it's not on the involved, the power plants and the grain dominic healthcare. it's not not the same pipeline as well. it was against the energy as a goal in this war. and would you that in there also assume that russia was behind this action and if so, what message is it trying to send with with that all the messages are it's all in for us. so every, every ribbon is ok for us. i not the look the refund or i'm not, you have to move on. no problem yet. but it's like it's one another,

one piece of russians warfare, conventional conventional different information. laura. and then we're on the, in, in the infrastructure. so on every single piece of front, the arsic on striking with for they were or whatever veterans they're striking. marina, certainly the wider effects of this breach of the day i'm look very concerning and not only for ukraine, the water level has gone down significantly in the whole the reservoir, which feeds very critical canals, both for ukrainian agriculture. and ukraine, of course, is the bread basket of the wheat supply here too much of the world. but also the nuclear power plant mentioned by feel free to accept provision. so it's, you know, very, very significant damage here for quite a long period of time into the future. it's an absolute disaster. it's an absolute humanitarian, but also, you know, just a strategic disaster. and what, you know, like a very sneed, the most, the way you know, like i'm very critical off,

is also that, you know, like that's actually not enough presence now by international organizations, for example, by the united nations, to really call this out. because this was something you know, like that is sure everything is legitimate and in war and loves apparently about here. really like to put this on at the decimal and say like, what russia is doing is not okay because it will effect as it just mentioned, every single region on this planet. again, in africa, again in the middle east where you don't have the green supplies. but in those regions, you have a lot of folks are still believe that nato is actually with the united states as the aggressor. and russia is the week of force and it was forced to launch those war. and so i think, you know, like this moment really needs to be used by responsible figures in the international community really portray the washer is using, you know, like weapons that are just against every single possible moral a clause out there. meanwhile, in russia, we are seeing a developing power struggle, neither portez propaganda,

nor dramatic displays of capture tank. so such as those being shown on russian tv belie the fact that russia has not had the success that expected when it began its invasion as pressure bounce. the ongoing, in fighting between the defense ministry and the private military company, wagner has now come to a head with the former, telling the latter its volunteers must become contractors to the defense ministry, the military unit, and its come on to all the funds to sign a contract with russia's defense ministry. this place is the army have gone with them, cut it off under the supervision of the russian army. the order also affects the of can you please cousins. wagner, group the messenger, a false and impulse and pitiful rushes. army was lost, employed in the password for the strategic lee, and symbolic the impulse instead to your fucking legs. now, precaution refuses to sign contracts with the ministry of defense. he says that

mister shaw, who has so far, been unable to lead his own troops. meanwhile, there is also speculation about whether the defense minister himself has fully announce a favor with pollution. is the power struggle in the kremlin intensifying and let me pass that question straight over to vladimir, is the power struggle intensifying and what are its larger consequences? in my impression, yes, we have a power struggle north inside the colonel, but between the russian army and the private group of arkansas, which is not part of the russian government. so it's kind of outside of the government structure and it's doing anything to see how quick you have any pre goals and start to build up to just political compound and companion inside the group. yeah, you know, it's on the, on the front or you travel through. i've seen the recent weeks and the press conference and talked about the terms about the russian politics about domestic politics, about a big abroad of questions. not on the mean at the strategy in the ukraine,

and it's the kind of, i would say, a rising star over the last 4 digits on the social media because he is doing quite professional good social media and using his media empire quite well. i'm in here in my it's me is a little bit on donald trump because in the beginning of trump's political campaign was the parts of the state government about like smart inc. and doesn't do that seem seriously. the things have been in good precautions right now, but i could not. and i, i think that it's possible that she would start the political party or so that sounds like you're telling us. so the person threatened here is not the defense minister of that. and by precaution, but perhaps putting himself from that too early to say. but there's, there's wildest stipulations gotten in the russian internet about the strategies of 3 goals. and then she has goals and the possible powers inside the freshman for the 6. what might support him? because she would not start this kind of political assault on the, on the minister of defense and the political campaign inside of russia. with all

the very strong support from very high level circles in ross inside the freshman 46 different. meanwhile, those who try to read the tea leaves from the kremlin are very interested in a photo that really was recently publicized that shows the russian president quite ostentatiously giving the cold shoulder to the defense minister. though the former, though they were formerly considered quite good friends, what are we to make of that if anything. so i can not so much make of that because i think it much more important is what is the consequence of that struggle. as a consequence of its cycle, is that the problem between the organization of the military of, of the text of the regular army on the one side, on the one hand. and so pre goes in company, on the, as of, on the other hand will continue. so what 14 try to do is he tried to balance

something he gave the go uh he gave his minister of defense with the soap ought to . is this a po claim? so all the nation of private companies under the army, he gave him something to protect himself. but at the same time we see that the goshen is building up for the his media presence. so nothing is resourced on the ground. and that is important for put in because it's on the ground, so mismanagement on the combined weapon attack management. if that is continuing, that is a problem for putting in the end because that can let fall for gaps falls of ukrainian army which can be used. what's your take on all of this marina? so you know, like now from western perspective, i think they're too big takeaways on the one hand, i think that in fighting between the wagner groups and the regular military. but in one form or another negative impact what happens in the ukraine. so this was not an asset, but it's actually a disadvantage for russia. but on the other hand, somebody like precaution is not somebody who's pro western or, you know, life wants to end those war to the contrast. one couldn't interpret that. he's even

more hard line than troy. go and maybe even the current establishment of the military. and he will also pursue this very hostile and western antenatal attitude . so even if there is a power struggle in, in russia that, you know, like maybe might even lead to, uh, you know, this is now a very for drift steak, but to be collapse of the machine that does not mean that then we have the regime that is actually, you know, like much more friendly to, to nato's interest. like him here that a widely quoted report from bloomberg says that rushes is leads no longer believe or many of the lead no longer believes that proteins or on ukraine is winnable. do you see signs that that is true? and again, what would that matter? what would it mean for put in? what would it mean for the outcome of the war or board with like a huge increase in from coal consumption. and there are certain, there is some weeks and months, so it's mind to connect to this disorders. and so the russian that it's on the

political reduction because i'll go what was the last last minute or 2 and stay the money a lot. so but on the serious side, and it's interesting what i'm the chief of the rest of today started last week, all of a sudden on the russian book song, you see my non thought that maybe it's time for a cease fire into it. okay. it may be, it could be another one that are for random in the area. so with the crime beach oh, good by the, by russian forces. and the people who are leaving the, the don't want to stay with russia. let them go free back to the claim. so it's a very new thoughts on the russian establishment which of the parts of the russians establishment to reach them. it was very loyal to present, put them into what's very pro war all the time since the war begun. and all of us out on your shares sides such noise as on a political stand. what does that mean is put you into the position i looking for? it's not shaking, but it's so busy in the part of the establishment. the some,

some movement that would support it's not on the surface, it's under sort of race and it's on the different science of this. but this, i think it's, it's so i think it's changing. meanwhile, the west has repeatedly promised to support ukraine as long as it takes nato is currently carrying out the largest air maneuver in its history. a clear signal to russia will put in, take note, or add, defend the 23 is the largest deployment exercise of forces in nato's history. almost all member nations of taking pause and the maneuver on the job and leadership. according to the abundance of a at around $10000.00 soldiers and $250.00 across all taking parks. the usa is participating with a 100 across the participants wants to show that they can defend europe against error attacks. the allies are primarily concerned with a question of whether the us can deploy forces to your quickly enough in an

emergency. during the exercises the russian enclave of colleen and broad will be carefully floating around to avoid any provocation as the russian side is also practicing for the event of war and the politics e. x. the sizes of the russian fleets began in early june, up to 40 ships and boats. $25.00 across and about $3500.00 soldiers also be involved the russian minutes. reset. what signals do these exercises send out? and i'll pass that question straight to you feel free to what, what messages this sending. i think it is an important message of the tyrants that nato tries to build up and updates is a capabilities for the defense. and also we have to see that the at cross potential of nato is one of the most important parts of the message with what the us

communicated to the kremlin in the autumn last year. winds i said, if you will use a means of mass distraction, you should know that we are capable and ready to show the russian troops out with, with or what that means. so that is very important. and i do not think that it has a direct impact of the wall of russia against ukraine, but it is important before cosby should. c. 14 begins a campaign against ukraine in a framework of a creative design into this house actually to, to challenge nato. so the things are also important for our security and for future funding there. how do you think this message will be received in moscow? i don't think that it's a huge importance right now for the rest of the leadership because we talked about the warranty there currently is going since and more than one year and the message processing back to you. they still trying to do what they were,

the ones that are crammed with all the rockets on kia from the other citrus which i'm being fired to every night and all the bumps into all their zoo a victims. so the fact that the 100 or 200 rest on airplanes are going around both in the german aerospace does not change anything on the ground in your crane. so the message is probably received some criminal involved as the turn strategy. but there is still on doing what they were, they want into their claim. number marina respond to that. if you liked that, i'd also like to to say this, a cynic might say, you know, people in eastern europe and the baltic republics can perhaps sleep a little bit more soundly now at night after watching all these planes up in the, in the sky. but what does it do for you credit itself? well, i think one critical component of this entire war is actually an american and the support of ukraine. let's face it without the support ukraine would no longer exist as it exists today. so what needle does, what ever,

it doesn't matters to the ukraine war, because basically as long as nato is united and supports ukraine, russia cannot win this war period. and so here by being able to stage this exercise and you know like, signaling that nato is serious also about its air power. i think it supports in directly the ukrainian effort because let's don't forget russia has as an objective to divide needle. we can see this in like in so many different facets, but one of the is that it was actually actively involved in, in france. that was just, um, spoke yesterday by the foreign minister there like a you know, having faint work sides and, and propagating that you know, like this was basically anita initiated one, not a rush initiated war. and by signaling the needle is united in this exercise. i think, you know, it strengthens to creating positions you wanted to respond to me. i think that the people in the baltic states and there are around the globe and they knew great in eastern europe. he'll sleep a little ones have under us and becomes a normal state democratic state, but it's not about them. i never said something blocked me to the plane or natal.

it's about being a normal country. okay. i think it should be one component. yes. that is one component to strength and determines but what should be of cause done in the future is to see that ukraine is also important for security. so we should supply ukraine actually was more and defense should be effective. there's a likely larger chance that it with a president by and has said he's willing to say ukrainian pilots trained on, on as you have still cause will they be a game changer know at the moment, not, not for the next month or so useful for we'll see you ok, hope that or friends, if bunch of the problem is if you're not begin to date to do with that and to train ukrainian soldiers, you will not have it even next year. let me just very quickly come back to our title. if i may marina, we have counter offensive. how will put you in react? i think you'll see more of the same. i don't think that will be enough in an

intensification of the war effort. i think it will be, you know, ending up in a frozen conflict that hopefully with us for quite some time. thank you very much. thanks to all of you for being with us. thanks to our viewers for to and again, check out our youtube website and let us know what you think about the program. we're eager to hear from you the, the, the

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