this is you, hey sir, i do the, you know, or the side that will be a, not a great to catch and then you get to talk to applicants. population is moving fast . and young people clearly have the solution. the future is 77 percent. every weekend on dw, the china has not changed its position, neither on ukraine, nor on time on. and yet china is trying to win friends can mutual trust, be established again. china has so far, refused to criticize the shell for its water, new trade. it remains adamant on that i want issue as well. this handshake seemed like a just to, to revive diplomacy. she did things receive blinking,

possibly. but the dies also fraud that re establishing stability looks fall fast. mean by, in germany, johnson, the old, of charles repeated has appeared to try not to use it's influence on russia to help in the war on a bill that was blatantly ignored. so on to the point we are asking china global ambition. can the west keep on the hello and welcome to to the point i'm you shop helping us out. i'm here in berlin. it has been a week off visit us secretary of state on to me blinking visited china was chinese premium. leach young, made his false bought and trip to germany and from both of these visits could because successful. do understand that after you wonderful, i guess with me today the have john scouts now. he's in all tops broad, costa,

and has worked with various media houses and also relatives for international publications on global affairs. next, on demand movie, have dodge event as chief international editor, richard walk over that. and last but not least, he has got stream tube a ashbrook. she is a political scientist. she has worked with cnn a tv doing this and she continues to die for various international publications, on spalding and security. people afraid of going back them to you. a lot of tanks were joining richard. i mentioned to with it, but as being a told one as well in 5 minutes. submitting some of these with a to the us just a coincidence. timing wise, or is it part of a bigger strategy? yeah, well, i mean, i think we, the timing is, may be the co, incidental, but obviously, you know, state visit to the united states states a very long time to organize the and tony blinking visit to china is something that

has also been kind of long into making it, but uh, but i mean the bodies visit to the us is certainly seen as it is a very important visit. i'm certainly a lot of a lot of symbolism in that the united states is really trying to reach out to india as what it sees, a potential partner in trying to manage the risk around around china, india in the pacific region. um, so yeah, i mean a week there's absolutely packed with diplomacy. i you, well, mr. new way to begin on that but, but yeah, the moody trip sent me something we're going to be watching very closely here. catherine, just to day after blinking of visited beating biden dressler to she's in think of a dictator. now, on the one hand, he's for walk in china, and on the other hand, he's welcoming mowdy with open arms. what kind of message if you're trying to send up? well, i think on the diplomacy piece, this is classic triangulation and diplomacy. i mean, you have seen, if you were to tribute anything to the west that would look like

a coherent strategy. it would be that the west has tried very hard to focus on the biggest part of the bricks, which is to say, uh, eliminating rush off from that equation which is, you know, beyond the pariah in the international system. but has tried very hard, at least to be reaching out to different parts of that constellation and my new way . my call is talking to brazil as president lula sort of, as we, as we speak. you know, we're thinking hardly at least through the west or attempting to about how we address the true issues of the global south. and it has been very specific, you know, it has an enormous economy to run and it has certain needs unless those needs are met. you know, this indian leadership has been very pragmatist and so that's what it's looking for from its various western interlocutors and the west has to leaning because of course, yes, the threats of china and russia are consistently of the offer. but to the bite and piece, we have to contextualize where joe biden was when he said what he said, i think for the wider diplomatic arena, probably not a great move. and yet we have to see that he was at a campaign event. he was at

a campaign event for his re election only a few hours effectively after it was revealed that china has built or is building a spy hub in cuba, and is potentially investing and military training of cuban military personnel. one might say in a quick protocol, move of the americans leaning increasingly into their military aid for taiwan. and at the same time, congress announcing it wants to do more for taiwan. so in as much as there is the global, international diplomatic picture, there's also domestic pressures on this president. i just the election. exactly just, you know, 1514 months ahead of a major us election. a lot of plans here, john. now the body language between blinking and changing things on the one hand, unload the invite and on the other hand is also being this because a lot, what do you make of it? at the heart of all of this is this whole question of pivot states. in other words,

as obviously the western approach to russia, as it is as an immediate acute threat, there is a longer time strategic piece, which is how do we deal with china, which will be discussing. but the sad part which is less discussed are all the states that are emerging and uh, absolutely important counter weights to the west on the one side to china, on the other. these are states that are the love, see a lie and in terms of it's not that they haven't decided all they during and that along with the west or china, they are simply standing up and saying, you gotta talk to us, you have to engage us and we will work with whoever we want to work with on the basis of our national interest, which is why is use a new introduction. the moody visit to the us was so important because the west has basically taken a view. the body is the bulwark against china. perhaps the most important one of

the most important, the west is now per pad to pretty much kind of blind eye to load. he's also retiring the tendencies within india. they've got to do the same with other one re elected in, in tacky and other states as well. that's a question of, we're dealing with we being, the western mindset is dealing with the world. that is very different to the one that appeared to be the case only a few years ago. talking off mondays visit this is movies 6 with the to the us and sticking over as prime minister in 2014. but his 1st state was a to the us. meanwhile, i know you a secretary of state has been to china since 2018. and in spite of both sides, claiming that they wanted a deal with friction, their strategic assessments of each of the remain unchanged, chinese presidency, receiving us secretary of state, blinking in badging. they are on speaking terms again and according to she more than that. so it seems like the 2 sides have also made progress and reached

agreement on some specific issues. this is very good mor, passenger flights between the us and china. more pieces for students and business people are reciprocal visit to washington by china is for administered small steps . but the large conflicts remain including commercial disputes with reciprocal sanctions, cheese proximity to or large pollutants. they things aggressive military threats to democratically rules. taiwan and chinese territorial claims in the south china sea . most recently there were dangerous confrontations between chinese and us fighter jets there in may. and lincoln cannot report that the 2 militaries are speaking directly to each other again. at this moment, china does not agree to move forward with that. i think that's an issue that we

have to keep working on. china and america help 10 says the relationship between the super powers john tensions between china and us. now there's relations are of the lowest drive now is enough being done to divide it. well, as we were talking about bite and his remarks about the tree being a dictator, you never quite know with a bite and means to say what he says or whether he speaks. so i didn't know whether that was just the, the adrenalin of the campaign trial, but us and, and europe and being toying with how to do a deal with china haven't worked out both within themselves and between themselves . how to do it. germany far more exposed to china, right, in terms of the trade as, as all, most european countries. i'm in all the different strategic reviews, germany having just published it's uh, it's one only a few days ago and all the countries the description of china ranges from an acute

threat to a strategic rival, to a strategic compact as a, to a partner to all kinds of things, and the reason people don't know how to describe it is because they don't know how to deal with the china and the carrot on the stick. completely in contrast to russia, now of that western countries have pretty much removed their exposure to china's to russia's oil and gas. there was no reason to need to engage with russia economically. the brochure is a, is a spent force. it doesn't have a political model that anybody particularly wants to emulate. it has brute force, and it has a nuclear weapons. but beyond that, there was no russian appeal. china is completely different. the west is actually dependent on china, if, as a natural resources enroll materials supply chains us so interwoven that it's very difficult people are trying to on shorts, initial to friend shore,

to use the times to be less dependent on china. but look at germany's automotive industry. look at so many countries, economies. so how do you work out this, this, this threat versus opportunity question? that's what everybody is trying to do. but america's position on pylon has not changed. and yet lincoln found the need to say again, that we do not support independence 5 on why will such required? well, the chinese position on taiwan towards the united states is essentially saying to them, you say that you have what, what the chinese cooler one china principal, the americans quoted one china policy which is, which is saying that they recognize the people's republic of china as, as the legitimate government over china that they do not recognize taiwan as an independent states. um, but the american say was absolutely essential. is it to that policy on this whole thing is that there must be no unilateral attempt to change the stage as quote and particularly not by force. and,

and i think the reason why blink handles that we've had this from joe biden also when he to possibly g 20 summit in bali when he has he met she, jim pink the last time i'm reiterating that position in public. because the, the chinese are saying, well, actually, this is what you will spend simply mean, but your salamis slicing that, you're providing weapons more and more weapons. the taiwanese and joe biden is also in various comments where there's also be an interpretation about what's the despair of the moment thing, or was it a really intentional thing? has on various occasions, the last couple of years said that if the chinese were to attack taiwan, then the united states would definitely come to taiwan to aid that goes beyond official us policy. and whatever he said that then the, the administration is usually what the comment back within the space of $24.00 as well. so, and the chinese where they look at this, they say your, your salamis slicing your your policy. you say that you believe in one, china,

but in reality, you're providing weapons who are providing more and more political support to taiwan for instance, with the visitors to of the speaker of the house. nancy pelosi to tie one last year which caused, which was one of the the, you know, the things that alicia is extreme, the style of periods in us china relations. i'm so that's why blinking is, is saying that when he's in pages and then how do you think us would react if china will accuse me to traction info on? well, i mean, hopefully with some way away from that. but of course, i think, but the united states and the world's being confronted with with rushes invasion of ukraine, is it, it's made even clear at the something that is being thought of as a sort of a field rascal possibility for many years. because as the china is always said that it resolves the right to take taiwan by force. now, letting me preaching is gone ahead with a full scale invasion against ukraine. this just makes that that prospect seem older, more conceivable. and there's a debate though about whether china looking at what's happening and ukraine might

be thinking, okay, yeah, they might be learning lessons about how to, how to do it, where they might be getting dissuaded from doing it because they see how difficult it is. they see the, the huge ramp up in sanctions and the, and the, the relatives units, you have the west in, in facing out to this. so thinking about what the consequences could be for, for china and steve mountains of some sort of the vision of that. and will also be confronted even more with, i think, the, the, the, the great, the difficulties to take to i want compared to, and agent new credit given that time one is in pilot. there's a better. um, so is whether it, whether it's more or less likely, it is one question, but it's certainly confronted to everybody, not just americans, but most of the europeans with the reality that one this could happen one day and both of them by them and you, she's in being able to be face to face. indeed, renting september and later and fx. do you think that would be able to take things forward? well i think that's certainly what the americans are hoping. and we heard in valley

that what they wanted to prepare was of saul into for matic relations. and at least we have to get back to a motor come of steady exchange. so the idea was that the preparation of the blinking visit, of course, which were supposed to happen in february, and you remember that the spied balloon incident interceded in that specific readout on both sides, made that situation very valid tile at least diplomatically. but you had quite some preparation for this blinking visit. ultimately you had a visit by a chief bill burns. you had conversations with uh by jake sullivan. uh, the head of the national security committee is the and i see in washington with his counterpart in geneva design and kind of set the tone and the americans have pegged an agenda item very clearly, which is that we come again to a point where we have military to military exchanges because the situation over the past few months and we heard it in the piece has become increasingly volatile. it's not just been sort of uh, incursions in aerospace or where american jets and chinese jets has encountered one

another. that's not just happened once, but a few times. the same thing is true. i serve in the maritime at rena, and the navy is coming to close to one another and not an ability to interface with 11 another very directly. so it's very clear that now this potentially even this visit, even despite the bite and comments, opens the doors for what is planned and already on the docket, which is that janet yellow and the head of the fed is supposed to have interactions with the chinese john kerry that had climate invoices the united states is supposed to have very substance detox with their, with his chinese counter parts. and then of course, you know, right mando on the trade questions, which are i think vital between the 2. and in as much as richard and john pointed out how dependent the europeans still are on the chinese market. of course, uh, the export import relationship between china and the united states, you know, remains peg that number 3 big, big american businesses still in china. and so finding a motor come of true diplomacy, even tre, diplomacy is vital. but, you know,

one thing i would say to a policy make cuz the retreat at the end of last week, germans, americans, and brits. one scenario was, was moved to that really surprised me and it was less the chinese middle traction invasion of tie. one of the argument being with china wants to attack the chinese and that whole sense of maybe we to coin a phrase, jumping the gun on all the the more immediate and intriguing and worrying scenario is if put in is forced back in ukraine at the moment deep writing is making very little advanced as far as we are aware, but whether ukraine is ready to break through and put the on the back foot, would the chinese provide direct but the truth assistance to russia, something they have still well clear up until now and what are they to do that the

americans would be required, as one would imagine to impose sanctions? i'm fine. i'm and it's that sort of next step. try one still feels maybe wrong awhile away or more in the distance, but this is right on our door and i think that was the substance of the closed door a conversation that well actually it's had with joe biden, a couple of months ago in the white house, and remember that was very much, you know, a close door ida, i potentially come to jesus moment where i very much assumed that the american president would have said something to that effect to the german chancellor. which is to say it is time for you to prepare your industry is um for what a sanctions regime. and richard made the point, it was an in, you know, comparative terms, easy to lean yourself off of the quote one track pony. uh, you know, in the energy sector in russia and it as hard as that was, you know, let's, let's be honest. but comparatively, to everything that we've said about where earth minerals, batteries that the kind of things that are vital to our everyday lives around the

world. that's gonna be a whole different gamut. and to sequence that correctly, you'd hope that some of the strategies that we're not seeing you mentioned the national security strategy of in german side is playing that out very directly. but that's not all the image you got when you studied what was going on this past week in berlin, when the cabinet delegation from the chinese side met with their counterparts, that here from the german government, right. we've gone to germany now it seems to be a balancing act between implementing on economic dies. so why blink and tried to improve diplomatic ties. dining stream, you know, worked on boosting economic dies with germany. joslet charles has emphasized that germany is not interested in economic di coupling from china. well, visiting berlin, china and have the reins in hand. no questions from journalists were allowed to. premier lee and chancellor schultz stress the importance of dialogue despite the differences. their focus was clearly on the economy to joey. so do

you think we continue to strengthen our cooperation in science, technology, and trade? yet we will contribute to the stability of the world economy. w. sholtes demanded fair competition from an aging and urged compliance with labor standards and human rights and supply chains. but such as i often say it and stressed it again today with my colleague, lee, we have no interest in economic decoupling from china. instead, germany wants to become more independent of its most important trading partner. but the strategy known as the risking was not high on the chancellor's agenda. to the annoyance of his green party coalition partner, schultz managed to get the chinese state shipping company costco, to invest and a hamper container terminals that is in critical infrastructure. in which direction is the new german china strategy headed richard

the chinese primrose refused to take questions during the press conference. did you have a data room type? remember we were there in the press conference, but more the visitor button? well, it wasn't just the chinese premier refused to take questions or shots did to that what no questions um and, but it's on the one side of the. yeah. and they said that it was because of the chinese type in the message. yeah. but, but the, the germans rolled off, rolled over on that demo. it was the same, the more, and it was the same when the ranger emoji was in berlin last year. and i think, yeah, it's a dangerous precedent was set during that mode you visit because of course, you know, that gives the chinese cover to say, well, you know, if you don't have to take questions with moody, why should we answer questions? um, so yeah, there was a certain amount of kind of quiet outrage among the journalist that was to see if the germans could try to summon up some unity to to, to make more of a stand the next time something like this happens. um, but yeah, it was a,

it was quite a noticeable a, a press conference probably because of what they called as of an encounter with the press was no conference that happening, of course, but how low key it was. it felt a little bit like a flash back, not just to moody, but also to the macro use when these government consultations were brought in. and just to take a moment to stress what they are. i mean, it's not just amazing between the chancellor and the counterpart. this is hold of government consultation. so the judge, the chinese came along with, with 9 ministers and, and heads of, of the various bureaucracies, the germans had 8 ministers and in addition to off shelves. so a wide ranging kind of engagement between the 2 governments and this is something that ongoing medical brought in during hard time. and that was a time with germany when full speed ahead on, on engagement with china and built up very significant economic ties, particularly between it's very biggest companies is call companies, it's industrial jobs and china and exposing them to the chinese market to

a great extent. so lot of this discussion now about this idea of taking the risk out of the relationship, the risk. and this is a question about the exposure of child. some of the japanese most powerful companies to that market talking will be this king john shaw seems to have a different definition of data skiing as compared to the rest of g. 7 is the rest, not united, it's not united. and the reason schultz has that divergence is as rich and size because germany is so exposed, it's a de risk is a, is a suitably vague to, to, to minimize the risk. one positive aspect that germany and other european countries are doing is looking for looking more assiduously at other parts of partners in asia. and the considerably closer ties we've, we've talked to, of course about india, but also japan is much more of an important plan that us the, the u. k. and japan a very much with australia,

which is a really big play a now in, in all of this much, much closer on a lot of these issues. so these all shifting sounds, but germany has always jimmy's entire post unification, the post war post of it just when the economic miracle model is based on a high end goods and, and exports. and germany is obviously the pos mazda of bought. and it's a, it's on that, but this countries, a postwar wealth is built and that is why the risk is so much greater carpeting. you'd mentioned the meetings. what's the use on? yeah. now bought the dining stream. yeah. i'm the indian prime minister. i've been waiting for you in germany and you said respectively, there seem to be competing with each other to get dressed attention. so final thoughts, india or china, who's going to be the more important partner in asia in the future?

oh i think it's all a question of time. i think very much the germans and the rest of the west would like to see in the step up to the plate and push on some of the high tech pieces. i think the the u. n. d. a t t c, the tech and technology tech technology council is right in that gamut. but for now, and i think i'm, it raises an important point. it's all about time, the risk and takes time. and if a huge american defense manufacturer like raytheon says, we can't pull out of china quickly, that's just as true for all the german manufacturers. and now what we need to see is a german business is need to learn from their s m e counterparts. the other things that have made germany strong economically because they are very nimble players here, but the big ones, the time to prepare to get out. i think that's where the hard truth is going to meet rubber and road china. the was the 2nd largest economy, is becoming increasingly influential, economically meant autonomy. and to apply that to the question that is defining the essentially is rather the rest can keep up with china's global missions. what do

you think about that? if you're watching us on youtube to let us know your thoughts, thanks for watching. goodbye. the

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