[000:00:00;00] the it was it what it may have looked like, that is what we heard today when you have get a for goes and said that he did not intend to overthrow it. russian president vladimir, put instead, he wanted to protest poor leadership of the war in ukraine. and yet, from nato to the pentagon, to the european union questions remain how to solve this russian riddle. what is it when a mutiny of mercenary forces headed from all scale to carry out an armed rebellion? is it i bring golfing berlin? this is the day. the it is hard to predict exactly what to now happen in the next days and weeks with

these to it's we need to act together as one team and maintain the unity of all forces rallying around president. the monster that we can create the binders in monster is i think that's much more much of just this worked out showed a lot of things that we talked about earlier. serious security problems throughout the country. that i think we should not make the mistakes that we are done. but as the main thing there is also coming up the ever unpredictable russian threat to long nato's eastern flank. germany says it's sending another $4000.00 troops to let the wayne german is ready to deploy a robust spring brigade and refrain yeah, on a permanent basis to our viewers watching a pdf of the united states and to all of you around the world. welcome. we'd begin the day after

a weekend of chaos and confusion in russia that has many asking how stable is the rule of russian president vladimir putin and does it change anything about the war in ukraine. on saturday, the wagner mercenary force, which has led much of the fighting for russia in eastern new grade and its weapons, albeit briefly at russia's own military leaders. wagner's head, yup. guinea for goshen accusing those leaders of mismanaging the war. a war that he says has been justified with last the span of a few hours. the criminal accused progression of being a traitor progression then called off his rebellion and then his soldiers turned around the kremlin and said that they would not pursue charges against any longer fighters or per goshen himself. but those terms are apparently changing . here is what russian president, the russian president told the country late on monday. he wasn't, it was, he used to present worthless today unit,

the rebellious wagner fighters and commanders have the opportunity to continue your service for russian by signing a contract with the russian defense ministry or other military and law enforcement structures. or to go back to your family the, those who want could leave for batteries pulling in, believe it, i do just all the other people. i think those fighters on commanders of the russian mercenary group wagner, who made the right decision, you know, but i didn't choose blood shed, but stop me at the last moment. what that means for production is i know as are his whereabouts today, progression. sit out this all the a message defending his short lived insurrection are very much the gloves that we showed a master class on what the invasion of ukraine, on the 24th of february 2022. when i should have looked like we did not have the goal of over throwing the existing regime and the legally elected government,

we turned around troops in order not to shed the blood of russian soldiers. rosky followed up with there appeared to be new crags and the facade of order instability inside russia. today, russia's prime minister call for the public to remain loyal in the wake of events that he characterized as a direct challenge to president boot. i see if it is what russia is going through an important time in its history. because of this, the consolidation of the whole of society is especially important. we need to act together as one team maintain the unity of all forces. rallying around the president's view, we need to take calculated unified decisions to effectively achieve goal set by the leader of the state of government. well, how are we to understand everything that's happened over the weekend? a drawing tonight by robert 1st, and he's a professor of international relations at the us military academy at west point. this person is going to have you with this year of the day. i want to start just

with the stability of russian president putin's government and his power. what condition is it in after the events of this weekend? as you know, i think we've seen this weekend that put in his power and in fact the stability of the entire system that he's been constructing over the last 2 decades is much more fragile and brittle than i think. even many uh, experts 1st believed. that's because for most of this time, his system and political stability has been premised on his ability to resolve and mediate internal power struggles when they arise with in his inner circle. and they do happen. but they never break out into the open in such an extraordinary way as precautions dispute with the ministry of defense and the regular armed forces has. and so that fact alone that putting was unable or unwilling to settle that dispute internally, i think,

suggests that some of his tools of control are weakening. furthermore, you look at how he controls the country. it really depends on his ability to buy off and also black mail, believe it or not, the very same it leads, but he surrounds himself with. he can threatened to revoke their power, their wealth, and their freedom for those who step out of line. so again, the fact that pre collision, backed by his private army, was emboldened to publicly challenge, not just administrative defense, but eventually putting himself and his decision to start to warn you. crane, i think really suggests again that his co worth of ability is slipping. and i think what's very interesting is that his initial reaction and today's announcement were very weak responses to a man who he, his publicly declared as a traitor guilty of treason. certainly not

a strong response from an autocrat like boot and well, what do you make of what president putin did say tonight's he basically gave the voc, their mid mercenaries, a choice. i can either join the russian military or move to bella. ruth, i'm wondering, kit came to russian, or between it simply take in these wagner soldiers and they wagner, history as well. in fact, this was in the policy that provoked in many people's opinions. gordon's stunning gamut. uh, the order had already been issued that as of july, 1st, wagner fighters, wagner, units were to be brought under administrative defense contracts. essentially putting them under the command and control of the regular military and precaution, sensing that his, his utility, his power and his forces were waning. if that were to happen, perhaps, was compelled to take this extraordinary move. i'm in so yes,

of those soldiers. i can be integrated, they will not likely be integrated as a unified force. they won't be kept together, but rather spread out dispersed among regular russian army units, where they will most likely be subjected to the same port of leadership, equipment, and logistics that the russian military has become known for throughout the course of this war. you as president to bite and today said that he had spoken with key allies about this weekend's events in russia take list of what he said. we agree that great with me that we had to make sure we gave food. know, excuse me. i was, i gave food, no excuse to blame this on the west. it's going to blame us on data. we made clear that we were not involved. we had nothing to do with it. this is part of a struggle with the in russian system. now we've got the white house, they are making it very clear. no us involvement period. russia has become ending

on events in real time. it seems ever since saturday. i'm wondering how worried are you about events escalating beyond russia's borders right now? so here, i'll note that these are my personal view is not the official policy or possession of the united states government. but i think in fact, that if anything, the last 48 hours have reveals that the fear of escalation, that has often limited our responses to russian activities and perhaps limited our western support of ukraine or perhaps overblown. we see that proven when faced with a challenge or when faced with a situation as potentially threatening to the state of the stability of his regime as this march on moscow was, what did he do? he backed down in the face of that off as ition,

and the loud for corrosion apparently to walk free and go into retirement into bellow roots. and so i think that does put into context perhaps some of our recurrent fears that put in will when backed into a corner in gauging some dramatic escalation. i've never believed that to be a significant risk all along. and i think this episode this weekend reinforces that, and we heard from the russian foreign minister, secondly, lever off today. but he plans to investigate, investigate possible for an involvement in what we saw this weekend. i mean, that was to be expected because it is expected doesn't make that statements, even that much weaker. as you know, the russians has been claiming western involvement in nearly anything that they don't light in the world in their neighborhood. and certainly at home. this has been a long standing kremlin propaganda point,

both internally and internationally. and so i think anybody with any sense who pays attention to russia immediately dismisses such such statements as utterly baseless they cry, wolf, time, and time again. but again, this has more to do with internal propaganda and messaging and trying to rally their population around this clearly failing war that putting has started a read today that the creating instead of activated 2 of the loving unit units that they have prepared for the counter offensive against russian forces, considering what's happened in russian now, is now the time to strike even hard i think absolutely it is. now of course, our ukrainian allies are in full command and control of their military strategy and they've made very good decisions throughout this war. and so i think we have to have some faith that they will continue to make the right decisions for they're all

sensitive. but this moment when russia's command structure going, all the way back to moscow is clearly in disarray. clearly has to be preoccupied. now with securing itself in the rear, i do think potentially presents some unique opportunities for ukraine to make gains that they otherwise would not have. that said, let's remember that they continue to face a difficult battlefield condition. russia has had many, many months to fortify defenses. build mine fields and other things that are making the ukrainian offensive, notably slow. this isn't to say that be offensive is failing. it's just going slowly, which i think most experts believed would be the case. probably the person professor of international relations at west point for this person is always we appreciate your time and excellent analysis tonight. thank you. thank you.

well, the wagner at revolt, but the pressure on russian defense minister said a showing who is his handling landing. some would argue, mishandling of the vision of ukraine. speculation is right that he and other military leaders may have lost pollutants confidence. today in showing you was at pains to show that he is still in charge of video broadcast on russian media. shared him flying to the war zone is a helicopter, and been meeting with officers at a military headquarters in ukraine. but here too, it's unclear exactly when this video was shot. so what the impact will the wagner is march on most gallery, the divisions and rush i have on the board, ukraine. and what's the takeaway for you crate and need to be as terry shultz put those questions to general then hodges, the former commander of the us army here in your i don't see anybody on the

russian side being strengthened by this. all the cracks, all the problems, all the phone lines inside the entire russian mafia. they had been exposed here over the last few days and i think of a lot of people could be in danger of either getting purged or else they will feel emboldened to do something else if they see per goes and pays no price. um, the other thing that we should take from this is we have to recalculate how we assess clinton's ability to do things. i mean hits, i don't think put in control too many of his officers anymore. and so when it comes to neutral or increased commitments in the war, i think western intelligence agencies and our civilian leadership are going to be looking through

a different sort of lens now and flooding air pollution and trying to figure out who's really calling the shots there it'll be interesting to see if showing remains the defense minister and i'm here versus this morning that he is. then it'll prove that putting by his loyalty more than confidence, which is a good thing for the finance we. we don't want to see rush to get a much more compliment leadership and to the fight. the loss of 25000 troops to the russian side is a big deal. and that's if the number of $25000.00 wagner troops is, is anywhere close to accurate they're, they're going to be gone as a fighting force. some of them may be re introduced into the ministry of defense as individual soldiers. but none of them will be trusted, and so you're going to have some units that were experience and the only russian use or had any sort of technical success or vol. that will be difficult to replace . what does this mean then for, for what your brain should take away from this, what they should do next? and do you see then,

that will use this as an exit strategy to, to re focus on, on his own problems and say that um, if he needs to pull out of the freight. i mean, is that even a remote possibility of pictures can change the narrative whenever he wants. i mean that's, that's what the dictators do. autocrats do. so he can change the narrative about the need to bring everybody home. and i doubt you would see big protests on the streets, there will be something with it will be unhappy, but i doubt you would see big protest. they probably would be like, okay, good. cuz i think most russians, as dr temp snyder says, just assume that they're always going to be under the control of some gangster and who. busy over it is, you know, so they just try to go on their daily daily lives. so i don't think people are, is emotionally attached to what's going on in your brain unless they have a son or husband or a brother actually deployed there. so could you could do that, they could use this as an excuse to change his own narrative. pretty crane. i think

3 things. number one, they recognize that a lot of russian soldiers now were wondering what's going on above them and behind them, do they really want to be the last soldier killed in the war? do they really want to risk getting killed or mutilated in a conflict that looks like they may be losing? and i, and i think just the way defense minister ration to call did over the weekend, direct appeals to soldiers using all sorts of social media, sending them text land. you don't have to die here. the enemy is, mikhail is not here and you cream. i think that will be compelling for quite a few. in the meanwhile, ukraine is going to continue on with their counter offensive. but they have to have already figured out that the russian side will be distracted the uncertainty and the command logistics will have been interrupted. and so i think ukraine continues continues on against

a weaker upon. so there was dw used terry schultz. they are speaking with us, general bid, hodges, until events came to a screeching halt on saturday. this crisis. it involved 2 major figures per goshen and food. and then bella rufe is leader, alexander lucas. jacob entered as the unexpected, mediator between wall scale and of mute. because she didn't care reportedly had a key role in the agreement that was announced late on saturday. that agreement calling for promotion to move to bella russo. it also exempted wagner troops from any criminal charge. so thanks to perchance man and bella roost, the mercenary boss who was headed for moscow now has a ticket to minutes. all right, let's go down to honda tobacco, but she is a journalist from valerie. she's currently in warsaw. we've spoken to her numerous times and it's good to see you again. look as think of as the mediator. what does he stand to gain here? if anything, as i assume 1st of all,

she's all was not as significant as many in the world. oh no thinking so much can be used as just to meet the man. and there are several things that can actually confirm that. first of all, it was discuss producing spokesperson, who announced that the going is going to the to the was and just an hour ago, just few moments ago was inside basically offerings to was going to be the items to me that to, to go to the as one of the options, no question has not spoken about this. yes. what is he reading here? first of all, the, i guess reputation in the short run you inside the country mostly that he's able to negotiate. he's able to deal with this situation. he's able to help with russia. i think you might read some who choose potential benefits for ross issued in the future for the service that the machine to provide. and perhaps he's also counting

on about the speed based and, and protecting him if something happens. yeah, that's what i'm going to ask you. tonight of putting it said that the a wagner mercenaries now have a choice. they can either join the russian army or they can move to build a roof. why move to bella roofs? do we know as i see it just because the letters in the eyes of fortune is being seen or used as a subordinate 73. where else they have many options? i don't think so. so i, i think that was, he had a hard time coming up with a solution and all of a sudden the cushion cause a very stable, continued loyal, all the way up here in butler was as a country where i'm going to be that those will not face any problems, so i think this is why, but for the was here, there are,

there will be many consequences because 1st of all it was feller was in danger isn't target for a potential retaliation from the korean side. it also definitely puts a risk to those neighbors from the west and already several countries have agreed on coaching agent the strategy. so basically the negative consequences for the was here. you have gainey for goshen in this agreement. it, it said that he had agreed to move to developers. so what does that mean for him? i mean, we have to also say that his whereabouts to night still remain unknown. but let's assume he's going to build routes where he is and deliveries. what does that mean for as the disappears and we don't really know where he is, but he actually published a voice message earlier today in the which she sent local shameka for offering the so supportive hand as he said. and also she says, she says

a very interesting phrase, but those will become illegal base, a sort of legal jurisdiction for the button, which means that they might be the and having a kind of legal base that whatever please uh, full because it seems so again, this month for next year, she doesn't have many options either. he's message a, she basically human, the judge, i think of the crime scene again saying that there are many security breaches many suppose she calls in the whole russia. so it doesn't seem like she is willing to retire, i think because she still has emissions and then we'll see what will happen next year. we have to wait and see as you say that we're missing the journalist. honda, civic help is always handed. we appreciate your reporting. thank you. thank you. and then you can follow up to the minute updates on the board and do create. and you can also get in depth articles on for goes and, and the wagner mercenary group. all you have to do is go to d,

w dot com with germany says it's ready to station several 1000 additional troops in lithuania, on the permanent basis to strengthen those eastern border. germany already has about $1000.00 troops on the ground. they are the 20 is the president has been calling for a stronger nater presence in his country which borders bella ruse and the russian enclave of coal in the garage, or a show if you need see and strength, german and lisa and soldiers conducting a joint exercise on the bumper of the training ground in the future, they will work even more closely together. after some, back and forth. berlin is now ready to permanently deploy $4000.00 soldiers to lease a new germany used to be the eastern flank of nato territory until the end of last year, all parked and germany as the biggest economy in europe. and the part member of

nato of cause is willing and will be able to take responsibility now for the new eastern flag. the deployment is based on the precondition that lease we and you know, provide the infrastructure needed to host additional troops, which will probably take until 2026 still between you and president. no data seems satisfied with the announcements, but he's asking for more support from allies. i've got to that to be off over the able to reach an agreement on need those sort of facial or this on some modal in the both the countries. so it's a significant miles storm in strengthening dollar security. we should continue moving in this direction into unity. and this results need to is working on new defense plans to boost its presence an air defense in the region. but the big question here and pub router is whether that will be enough and what comes to quin

since the attempted wagner revolt could have the events we saw unfolding in russia over the weekend demonstrates the weakness of the fragility of the russian regime. it also demonstrates the danger of being dependent on mercenaries at the same time . we need to remember these are internal restroom. there's, it's not fun, a thought in 2 weeks time. all eyes will be on lisa and you again, when nato leaders meet here, for their summits is dw alexander and all of their reporting from that the waiting for the day is almost done. the conversation that continues online. you'll find this on twitter, either dw news, you can probably be on twitter and print golf tv and remember, whatever happens between now and then tomorrow is another day. we'll see you then if

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