the the wagner mutiny was the single biggest challenge of luck near putin's 23 year room. and the picture of what really happened is only very slowly becoming clear. it appears that the head of the mercenary group, you have any pre goshen plan to capture rushes, top defense officials and speculation is right for about the role of other senior commanders in his plot. the rebellion was quickly called off and provision is now in feller. bruce, with questions remain over how much of a hand lot of improvements credibility is taken and what from cogent next move might be. i'm gonna call fairly chamberlain, and this is the day the table my what are the real intentions of the buckner group?

the situations on the control volume, we do not know the purpose of this relocation. you know, the commission. i believe that the contingent will not be very logical to party to serve the occupation of belarus. or are they to create an additional threat to ukraine from the north, around forces of killed more than $20000.00 these to this? or are they supposed to be a potential threat of to our country's nato countries? is fine. not those also coming up on the day stomach migrant crossings of the northern border of the united states transit through the yes is no longer the best way into canada. so this is the path that the migrants use to take to cross to canada. they would walk down this way, they would be processed over there at that facility. but now this is the limit. no one is allowed to cross. welcome to the show, it's good to have you with us. the questions are still swirling around the wagner

mutiny in russia. over the weekend, us media reports suggestive gaming for goes and initially intended to seize russia's top military officials. and then some generals and the secret service may have known about his plans days ahead. a short lived rebellion san wagner, troops occupying the southern russian city of rust. on dawn, a key logistics and command center of under column then got within a few 100 kilometers of moscow before per goes and ordered his forces to turn around. and the kremlin has dismissed the emerging information in speculation, but the revolt paints a picture of deep divisions in the russian military is also cast down on the authority of russian president vladimir putin. native hours are still trying to work out what it all means. serious. you a secretary of state antony lincoln. it is generally subordinate that we've gone from a place where we were 16 months ago, where you had russian forces on the outskirts of team. they thought they would take

the city in a matter of days. they thought they would arrest you print from the map as an independent country to a place where we were this weekend where you had forces moving on for us as capital . moscow, for the architect of the wagner, of rebellion he has been in for goshen is now believed to have begun his exile in bella roost as part of a deal supposedly brokerage by the country's leader, alexander lucas sango. although his exact location is still unknown. so what are for goshen plans and bella? ruth and what's the future of his mercenary force? bella ruthie, an opposition leader and asked us what not to handle sky. i spoke to the double you about the uncertainty. we actually don't know what for gordon is going to do in bills. we have showed that vocational call, we legalize them, we would provide them with facilities. so it'd be the equipment with the know with the infrastructure. but of course, people ask it with the people, there was a good with this with this and they were just imagine a weaponized people who are ex trinity roles. you know, we're going easily uh, in,

in our citizen and villages. and of course, it's a threat to the people, but i think this, this me still reasonable over yet because the proportions family to put you in and put in his speech told that's a no, she doesn't forgive me. trace what it means in practice. we don't know, and so is what cushion cas full as well to put you on, she will fulfill all the order so which in the end, if let's imagine, pretend gives him get focused on the order to uh, get the rent for board. i'm sure they'll till they increase president bloodwork. zalinski is also reacted to promotions relocation developers. following a meeting with the presidents of poland ends, lithuanian lensky confirmed that some wagner fires remained on russian occupied territory in the eastern new han sc region. but he set the security situation in the north, remained unchanged and under control. and with all of

this going on in the background, ukrainian forces are trying to find momentum for their recently launched counter offensive. despite the deliveries of western military equipment, ukraine's territorial gains have so far, only been modest against what appeared to be well entrenched russian defensive. for now, at least it seems. the turmoil and moscow has not had an impact on the battlefield . there is a lot to unpack and for that i can now welcome just and crump. he's a military analyst and c o of civil line a, a consultancy firm based in the u. k. good to have you here with me. okay. and to you throughout the war many times via video link. and it's the 1st time you're actually joining us here in the studio and what a time it is to have you here to, to unpack everything that's going on because it has been quite an extraordinary weekend. what do you make of a really extra rate? and i think you've called at the events very well in the program. i think the big question that's outstanding and it's very much in social media today, is

a split between people. and i must say, i am one of these who believe that this is what it appears to have been. it was a revolt. it was a means to me by developing a group, probably with some support elsewhere within the system. and it was cooled off following extensive behind the scenes debate, simple guy on drake se kalsich baby. but there is another school of thought being pushed by a lot of brushes. both is, this is a coming plan to drawer out through things and amazing to maneuver the volunteer group to buy the risk and, and threaten new crime with the new front. and i think that's pretty far fetched, but there's lot of debate round that and i think regardless whatever has monday, the 1st is going to have a real impact on the course of events. suddenly over the next few weeks, as we will try and make sense of it. yeah, we're trying to make sense of it and it looks like there was knowledge of what for goes and was planning. so in can this really slowly be blamed, pinned on him as a mastermind? well clearly looks like the russians themselves. definitely don't just spinning it on him. um, now obviously it's all the reports,

but it's sort of the can who is the combining german in the south? probably one of the best journals the russians have had sort of disappeared from view. there are no reports that he's been arrested. we're still waiting for more dates out on that, but that is the sort of thing we expect to use. rushes thoughts came house following this and certain. there were enough warnings, i think from within the system in russia, the vault through unhappy. this was known that they would likely to do something. they've been stopped finding homes and equipment for quite a period of time. and i think i the people let it go because i didn't know what to do about it or because they wanted to see where this went. but i think it was a very uncontrolled situation. i'm for lucas shank that it's about food and out. it's not entirely credible, so we feel there are other players here and facing this at the top of the regime. he's wanting control. i think he's become the figure head much more and there are lots of plans on denise thought who are probably saying what happens if the campaign ukraine doesn't go well, what next off the food. and so he's got to deal with that situation. he's really out the front just as

a big hit at this point. and that's what this shows. let's look at the war because precautions combatants were some of the most ruthless, but also the most effective forces that russia had added to dispose of. what does it mean for the war that they are now off the battlefield? well, i mean, they were off anyway, they got pulled back off the back. that was capture the city itself. and i think that numbers will much would use there were lots of in place if it gets great right about how many they will. but you may recall, they brought a lot of people have the prisons and they were using a lot of people may assist kinda in florida. they had a system where by the most elite people would stay back, the weakest people go to the front and so they lead people probably survive longer live longer. but probably the people in the columns that had the most going south today. but there's a few 1000 of them probably at this point, at most of the future remains unclear. they were told they had the choice of go into exile and brothers, or joined the army in russia. now i didn't think any of them would want to be in the russian regular army. otherwise i'd have joined us in the 1st place. and they may not be popular in the army because the army is very divided about with their

supporting or against talking. so regardless of those, those was the knology last, i think the war effort, but it surprised perhaps the company's been willing to pay an exchange for getting rid of the political problem that this private army was developing for. yeah. what can ukraine do to seize the moment this chaos that seems to be going on in moscow or they've suddenly they jumped on this straight away and there wasn't enough time . i think of re okay. awesome the bit wherever the russians before to each other. so you're trying to make great gains at that point, but they did push forward on the battlefield that day. and i think they knew that russian were all would be very hot by what was going on. of course, if those chaos behind you and one of your best fighting units is focusing on the parts of your army, you didn't really want to waste your life in that situation. so you're trying to push out on site today. they did gain some, some ground, but very tactic. they didn't have time to develop that situation. but of course now they're pushing very hard on the narrative that your brochure is failing. and i think more widely, you're trained depends on west and support. and there was some fear as

a heads of the confidence and values just on the 2 weeks when they tell you that the lack of ukrainian gains in the battlefield might result in nations cooling for negotiations or something like that. i think now and it's right there in the us and others, i think the problem is inside russia have really involved in the nation sports and you try and, and that's probably the most important single thing. yeah. you mentioned equipment supplies, logistics are a huge factor in this conflict. let's take a closer look at how big a factor that actually is. and then keep talking a key bridge for russian supply lines into southern ukraine. a russian weapons dump white from the map and a few deep pools in onyx, crimea all targeted by ukrainian forces in recent weeks. oh, crucial. in the machinery of war, of the war in ukraine is all of the war of attrition

and the water attrition becomes a war over logistics. historically, russia has relied heavily on its real network to move military cargo around. but inside ukraine destroyed we're ways meant that wasn't possible, leaving russia reliance on trucks to support frontline trip. one u. s. military logistics, x bet, estimates the russia only has enough trucks and pass them now to support a war effort up to 145 kilometers from supply dumps. later this month, rushes exasperated. defense minister to the military storage facility and told his men to get some move on. meticulously stage visits like this, a part and parcel of russia's domestic propaganda efforts to find the true test of multiple logistical mites will be exposed on the box. so feel to go sooner or later

indeed and in this bottle of attrition and logistics. who allows the upper hand right now the ukraine was a russian, russian as long argued it does, is a huge nation and had huge stopped falls of soviet equipment. but of course, the campaign to support ukraine has been sold it, they receive pretty good donations of vehicles. clearly we've seen that another they've taken losses of those vehicles in defense of action, but you would expect the donations that going through a pretty much replacing those straight away. it will take a little bit of time, but this certainly making good losses. and i think we talked before about this thing and not hillary complex. and when you watch the footage, you see how much of this is the guns firing on targets and how important that is for both sides. and what's interesting in this phase is that ukraine has really focused it's tension and destroying rational territories. so whenever you create a tax, they force the russians to find their guns. when you follow your guns, you have to bring them out of the woods. you have to bring them out of southern, they're exposed to drones and expose other phones to attack. and if you look at the

rates claimed by ukraine, you can scroll down to sleep numbers because they're always on certain. but the, the trend of claims now tend to be losses on the russian side by ukraine is definitely escalating, and i think it shows the success they've had in that piece of this. and that's very important at this stage. the other part of making guns still far and you use to make sure they have no munitions. and this is why these long the range strikes using particular storm shot i, me saw, but of us as well. i'm happen very effective in reducing russian. i munition supplies full, they're all totally um, it'll never reduce absolutely. but it will helps. and it says combined efforts across the russian logistics and command control layout and southern ukraine that will give the ukrainians to volunteer job the time if they can maintain the pace. i'm, they've done this before, they did this exact same sort of campaign as far as hudson and data and except now, so i gave whatever you are good now and looking back on what happened over the weekend, all these chaotic events, there was a moment where the wagner group was in control of the military command center and

rushed off and done how much of a disruption can that cause to rush as military efforts, even if it was only for a couple of hours? i think so, i mean the most significant element that still is the more all the effects um and i think that's, that is a shock for the russian military. it's bitten by with baseball to the actual don't . and it's crates on certain confusion. i think when actually walked into the mom post, they were pretty much unopposed, which tells you something in itself. and they allowed operations to continue under their own sedation, but they tried not to fear interfere in any way with the, the, the, with the goal that was going on. so i think that in itself was significantly it's a shot that, that could be taken over as easily. and now of course, and also seen it come on, does my think it's the uncertainty and that lots of come on that confusion about who's going to be in, come on, especially if the robot can is going that will really play the russian army for the next few weeks and ukraine will press all in that time. they will press hard, but how long can they press?

because time is often said is on russia aside because they have a numerical advantage. wouldn't they benefit from this? becoming a very drowned out conflict? is that what russia once i think the one of the reasons that fighting for every inch of ground doing defense, you don't have to do that. you can give up ground, you can withdrawal drawer, you're going to be out an encounter, tighten them eventually, but rushes counter attacking straight away if they lose any ground. and that's very wasteful for us, so that losing a lot of troops needlessly doing that. and i think it's cause a desperate to hold on to what they have. i think that's what it tells us. i'm hoping if they can just limit ukrainian gain, set the sky west them back is a view crane that eventually drives to stop supporting you, trying to call for an end with things on now. so i think russia feels it can push for time. i'm not sure we're going to give way as quickly as most of the things, especially off to what's happened over the weekend. is natal doing all it can feel like i've asked you this many times we make is what doing everything it could,

but it's doing an awful lot and it's getting a lot of things. you're crying what it needs. and the deficiency has been out. i'm one of the reasons this is hard going through ukrainians in the south is that lack of dominance on the russians. don't have it all as a. but it would certainly be easy again for your crime, but a little more acro off, which is why they've been asking for them. and one of the reasons they've been awesome for them so long, it looks like they will eventually get them. probably too late to help the campaign over the summer, but if things do extend that will start to really provide them with some help and she goes better late than never at dallas military analysts. justin chrome. thank you so much for calling in today. thank of the united states our, the migration crisis long brewing in the southern states has arrived at the northern border. tens of thousands of migrants are regularly crossed from the west into canada last year and march canadian prime minister just intruder. and he was presidential by and struck a deal to revise the so called safe 3rd country agreement. dfcs sto closing the

border for asylum seekers. one of the main unofficial crossing points along the 2 countries, nearly 9000 kilometers border was rock some road in southern come back. it will be used currently nationwide went to see this role passed through the forest had truly become a debt at the border between canada and the united states is the worst longest unprotected international border. they are around 100 official ports of entry, as well as many official crossings like this one at the border with the state of new york, where 40000 immigrants entered canada last year, an old time record. so this is the path that the migrants use to take to cross to canada. they would walk down this way, they would be processed over there at that facility. but now this is the limit. no one is allowed to cross, while official crossing points between canada and the united states are strictly regulated piley's installation called the safe 3rd country agreement. the other

ones are a loophole in the regulation that email gets used to enter canada and claim asylum . in march of this year, it was closed, and this is creating a bottleneck situation in the northern states of the us. like in portland, the largest city in maine were many immigrants are now trend. we've been sleeping here on the street for over a month. no one tells us anything, no one helps us. there's no room for us. but where can we go? what annoys but we all on the america suppose to help were sleeping outside at the church. they always say come back tomorrow. we have kids for some with me florida, a huge challenge for the helpers like mike guthrie, who manages a couple of shelters in the city. it's very difficult. and it's, it's never great to look a family in the face and say, i don't know where you're sleeping tonight. especially when they've come to you for help. most of the immigrants here are from angola. come go and hate. they cross the

us mexican border. now they're stuck before. if you have a 100 asylum seeker, the red me here from the city of them of 40 will be crossing the boulders towards canada. nowadays, the can't cross the border because it's closed. now they are for us to start with their process here as they have to state, proceed to the location as a lawyer. model key, bungie helps them to start the asylum procedure. he entered the us as a refugee and is now the president of the congo lease community in portland at the city hall. the major is addressing the crisis we've been trying to problem solve the issue of emergency shelter for quite some time. and they will not lead housing for fantasy housing for individuals. they need emergency shelter for the operation. so the fact that before us tonight is the

combination of a lot of consistent worth today. they are voting on a new emergency shelter for 180 immigrants. the proposal past 8 votes to one, but not everyone is in favor. for what is it that really bothers me is my lack of privacy. i live on a dead end street. i have the woods behind me. i have a large backyard for my family and my animals, and i feel as though a 180 people over there will disrupt and i will lose my privacy off my decks. it is, it sort of like that's what i see a temporary solution. that once more deepens, divisions in the united states. you currently actually the father's report now joins me in the studio currently. no. so great to have you here. so at walk us through what happened here? what led to the closure of rock them road? yeah, we're great to see you in a call. so um this board are the largest. i'm protective board international border

between 2 countries of board or we can canada and the united states. they're different ports of entry, the official ones, and the unofficial ones broke some road is an, an official one and the agreement, the safe, their country agreement. the one i talk about in the report was valid only at the official part ports of entry. so this created a loophole for the unofficial, a ports of entry where people seeking asylum and, and to canada. now at the safe, their country agreement has been extended to all kind of ports of entry so that it's valid everywhere. and canada, i can just turn the my way away and tell them you're not, you're not allowed to see us have them here in canada. like some road is one of the unofficial points of interest and rights groups have ever since this, this was amended back in march, criticized that they asked in humane what are they saying? why are they so so critical that is very interesting. the thing is that the safer country agreement says that people seeking outside of them have to do so in the 1st

safe country. they arrive at the human rights group say, well, this is not the case for the united states. they can be detained there. they can be ported, it is not a safe country for people seeking refugee. and so this is why they say that canada would be the 1st safe country where they should be allowed to claim asylum. and this is why they suit the canadian government. they sued the canadian government and it went all the way to the canadian supreme court, correct what the judge is. there's a base that it doesn't go again. stem international law. it's a, it's, it's, it doesn't go against the constitution in canada, and it will remain as it is as to go on 5 and a $32.00 in march this year. so the saves their country agreement remains valid on all sorts of ports of entry between canada and the united states. and this, and this is a nice example of that, a member of the canadian government abroad. this is like similar to trump's wall at

the us mexican border and the seldom part in the south and border. this is also a kind of wall, but an invisible won't because it's really blocking any sort of of, of right for people to seek asylum in canada. yeah. you talked to people on both sides of the border. there's actually a longer version of that report that we just saw, and i can only recommend that to our viewers. but what did people tell you? why did they want to make the journey to canada and not stay in the united states? well indeed, they don't feel really safe in the united states, not anymore the united states. it's not the country that it used to be perhaps in the ninety's or 18th, where people thought, okay, this is the american dream. i couldn't make a new life there. a lot of them, especially since trump and his immigration policies starting feeling secure on the us side. and this is why many of them a want to go to canada and canada once the once they used to be there and they were

allowed to claim asylum. they had the right to work there, they had a health insurance. so the whole, the whole reality around being a refugee was just different. and this is why many of them are going now towards the north and part. yeah. and it's, it's been a story that, that you've followed for a really long time, right? migrant stuck in limbo and add ports of entry, whether it be the mexican border or now the canadian border. when joe buying came to power, he promised a more humane treatment of, of migrant seeking asylum in, in the us. correct. where is this policy that he promised that is a very good question. that is what everyone is asking. because at the same time, i don't want to go into a title 42, that's a different row of the way through different rule. and it's a valid for the southern part. but he, in a way, has also blocked the border from mexico into the united states. and his humane immigration policy is more directed into a,

fighting against the root causes of immigration. and that means in central america and in mexico. but this of course, have a might have, might, might so result in a long term, but not really in a short term. so his policy has mcglatian police are just not so different from the ones from the trump administration. and this is why the human rights group in canada are saying the united states is felt not a safe country for people seeking are g as caroline. that's why thank you so much for your report. thank you. any calling bye today and that's our time. but make sure to stay informed, stay engaged and stay in touch. you'll find this on twitter or either stay that we use or you can follow me because at least for now though, from all of us today and currently no, thank you so much for spending parts of your day with the

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